Poll

When will the first commercial orbital crew be launched from the US

3rd quarter 2015
6 (3.5%)
4th quarter 2015
21 (12.1%)
1st quarter 2016
26 (15%)
2nd quarter 2016
13 (7.5%)
3rd quarter 2016
20 (11.6%)
4th quarter 2016
26 (15%)
1st quarter 2017
19 (11%)
2nd quarter 2017
8 (4.6%)
3rd quarter 2017
13 (7.5%)
4th quarter 2017
4 (2.3%)
Not until 2018 or later
13 (7.5%)
NASA will launch crew before commercial crew does
4 (2.3%)

Total Members Voted: 173

Voting closed: 06/30/2014 11:30 pm

Author Topic: When will the first commercial orbital crew be launched from the US  (Read 20053 times)

Offline QuantumG

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I agree with everything you said. That is a fair analysis. I also don't believe that NASA is trying to slow down SpaceX on purpose. The political and government process is slow but that is true for every company (not just SpaceX).

There's no question that some parts of NASA have been trying to slow down SpaceX "on purpose" since the very beginning.. but I guess you mean the Commercial Crew office, which have only been trying to slow down SpaceX a little less, mostly in the interest of what they call "maintaining competition", and what I call "giving Boeing enough time to catch up" (which they still haven't).
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Robotbeat

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SpaceX are doing an in-flight abort within a year or so (I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the beginning of 2015). That is a huge, expensive test, probably the most expensive test before a crewed flight (unless they do a full mission loop unmanned, but I don't think that's necessary).

I don't think it can be too much longer before they do a manned test flight. I'll probably vote 1st quarter of 2017 or something (because reality is hard and they're going to be careful and there will be unforeseen issues), but it could be as early as the end of 2015, and 2016 is definitely on the table. I will make the decision right before the poll closes because a lot could come to light about the status of crewed Dragon by then (and no, I don't think anyone will be close, though Boeing /could/ launch by 2017 if Congress funded to the full level).

ECLSS and windows and manual controls and docking port will be needed in addition to the abort ability, but ECLSS is really the only somewhat complicated part, and I don't think it's /that/ challenging. Or expensive (compared to the in-flight abort).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline A_M_Swallow

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{snip}
ECLSS and windows and manual controls and docking port will be needed in addition to the abort ability, but ECLSS is really the only somewhat complicated part, and I don't think it's /that/ challenging. Or expensive (compared to the in-flight abort).

A spacecraft with an ECLSS can be tested under water or in a vacuum chamber.

Offline douglas100

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In a vacuum chamber, of course. But under water-are you serious?
Douglas Clark

Online guckyfan

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In a vacuum chamber, of course. But under water-are you serious?

Water may be the easiest way to supply the pressure needed for humans if there is a large amount of it available at one spot. People can go outside using scuba gear.

That does not mean I am convinced they will do it that way. There are plenty of disadvantages to it. At least you need nuclear energy.

Edit: No idea why this is here. I was sure I posted this is in the Mars section.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2014 05:31 pm by guckyfan »

Offline mheney

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Thinking about it, water would provide some rad shielding as well ...


Edit - didn't notice the thread this was in when I replied - it's a bit off topic.  probably should move this elsewhere...
« Last Edit: 01/11/2014 04:45 pm by mheney »

Offline TrevorMonty

{snip}
ECLSS and windows and manual controls and docking port will be needed in addition to the abort ability, but ECLSS is really the only somewhat complicated part, and I don't think it's /that/ challenging. Or expensive (compared to the in-flight abort).

A spacecraft with an ECLSS can be tested under water or in a vacuum chamber.

Capsule has positive pressure compared to vacuum, designed to not leak air out or explode (think of a balloon)  in vacuum. Under water capsules (  eg sub) a designed not let water in or be crushed by external water pressure.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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{snip}
ECLSS and windows and manual controls and docking port will be needed in addition to the abort ability, but ECLSS is really the only somewhat complicated part, and I don't think it's /that/ challenging. Or expensive (compared to the in-flight abort).

A spacecraft with an ECLSS can be tested under water or in a vacuum chamber.

Capsule has positive pressure compared to vacuum, designed to not leak air out or explode (think of a balloon)  in vacuum. Under water capsules (  eg sub) a designed not let water in or be crushed by external water pressure.

I know the differences between a spacecraft and a submarine.

Water landings mean the spacecraft have to be waterproof.  At least to their own height.

Space ECLSS have to be tested to show that they work in the absence of the Earth's atmosphere.  Swimming pools are easier to find than large vacuum chambers.  Unless it is a full integration test the test vehicle does not have to be fitted with say working RCS or radar.

Offline Robotbeat

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...off topic, you guys....
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline AncientU

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1Q2016
Goal was summer 2015 when six months of additional testing added. 
Otherwise, on track to meet schedule.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

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