Poll

Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?

F9/Dragon
269 (83.5%)
AtlasV/CST100
18 (5.6%)
AtlasV/DreamChaser
16 (5%)
F9/DreamChaser
3 (0.9%)
F9/CST100
4 (1.2%)
SLS/Orion
6 (1.9%)
Delta IV/Orion
6 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 322

Voting closed: 06/30/2014 11:24 pm


Author Topic: Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?  (Read 56471 times)

Offline JasonAW3

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Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.

Five, counting the Lunar Module, X-15 and X-20.

If you count X-15, you need to count SpaceShipTwo as well. We are still tied up.
If you count SpaceShipTwo you should also count XCOR's Lynx, still one up ;-)

Lynx still hasn't flown, let alone flown suborbital.
My God!  It's full of universes!

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.

Five, counting the Lunar Module, X-15 and X-20.

If you count X-15, you need to count SpaceShipTwo as well. We are still tied up.
If you count SpaceShipTwo you should also count XCOR's Lynx, still one up ;-)

Lynx still hasn't flown, let alone flown suborbital.
Suborbital vehicles are off topic

Offline arachnitect

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Problem is; CST-100 has the Lock-Mart/Boeing muscle behind it while Dreamchaser has Sierra Nevada.

Lockheed is on the Dreamchaser team.

Online yg1968

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Problem is; CST-100 has the Lock-Mart/Boeing muscle behind it while Dreamchaser has Sierra Nevada.

Lockheed Martin is not involved with the CST-100.

Offline king1999

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Russia is the wild card. The USG can't afford to rely on Russia for the Atlas V. F9/Falcon is a sure bet. Next would be a tie between CST-100 and DC. DC is a fan favorite and may well beat CST-100, you never know.
I would pick F9/Falcon and DC.

Offline oiorionsbelt

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I would pick F9/Falcon and DC.

That would be an absolute shocker! :)

Offline tesla

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Hi! I haven't been following this for some time, so has there already been a date set for the commercial crew down select announcement?  ???
Go SLS and Orion! God bless America.

Offline SWGlassPit

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Sometime this month ... in theory.

They said August or "early" September. I'd say we are already past "early" September.

Offline JasonAW3

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I'm thinking that most likely SpaceX will be one of the contractors, as they have already flown the majority of the hardware that they plan on using.

Dreamchaser appears to be pretty much a hardware agnostic system, but has yet to be sent even off of a pad abort test, (Same could be said of the Dragon, but that's already scheduled for later this year) nor has it actually been cycled into space, docked with the ISS and returned safely with a cargo.  This also applies to both the Boeing design, but as they have already build and flown past man-rated equipment, this gives them a leg up in experience, but the ciosts of their craft are likely to be higher than the Dreamchaser, as Boeing will likely try to recoup their R&D costs up front, while Sierra Nevada Corporation are likely to spread the R&D costs into the per unit cost of their space crafts over a longer term.  While these too are designed for reuse, how many they CAN be reused is currently open to question.

     So, having two similar craft to do the same job. is a good thought, but If NASA is looking to have lower reentry Gee forces, wider cross range and the ability to pretty much land at most commercial and many private airfields.  The CST-100  is primariliy a ground to LEO orbital taxi and back again.  The CST-100 was designed primarily to use Atlas, Titan or Arian rockets.  Whether or not it can use the F9 or other Launch Vehicles has not been fully explored yet.

     While I suspect that SpaceX is almost an assured vendor for Manned Spaceflight services, I still think that it is a tossup between SNC and Boeing, with SNC having a slight edge for using a lifting body design.
My God!  It's full of universes!

Offline vt_hokie

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I think maybe it's time for a when will NASA announce its commercial crew winners poll! 

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