Poll

Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?

F9/Dragon
269 (83.5%)
AtlasV/CST100
18 (5.6%)
AtlasV/DreamChaser
16 (5%)
F9/DreamChaser
3 (0.9%)
F9/CST100
4 (1.2%)
SLS/Orion
6 (1.9%)
Delta IV/Orion
6 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 322

Voting closed: 06/30/2014 11:24 pm


Author Topic: Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?  (Read 56468 times)

Online oiorionsbelt

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1412
  • Liked: 672
  • Likes Given: 1482

Hopefully all the realistic options are listed.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 10:25 pm by oiorionsbelt »

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28744
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 8843
  • Likes Given: 5740
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 10:48 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline PahTo

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1548
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 593

When this poll last came out (a couple years ago?) I selected AtlasV/CST100.  Given the passage of time and events, I'm now leaning towards F9/Dragon, and my vote reflects that.

Online RonM

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2646
  • Atlanta, Georgia USA
  • Liked: 1438
  • Likes Given: 1070
SpaceX does have a big head start with the cargo Dragon. I think modifying it to a manned vehicle gives them the edge.

Offline NovaSilisko

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1828
  • Liked: 1435
  • Likes Given: 1301
I'm quite sure that STS is not gonna be the vehicle carrying Orion ;p


(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Interesting... PM me with any links to info on this, I'm curious now.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:00 pm by NovaSilisko »

Online oiorionsbelt

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1412
  • Liked: 672
  • Likes Given: 1482
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)
Whoops definitely SLS, not STS fixed that :) and took your suggestion adding Delta IV/Orion

Offline mb199

  • Member
  • Posts: 22
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28744
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 8843
  • Likes Given: 5740
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!
On the contrary, it's leaving the ground this year (and in test article form, it has already left the ground in several abort and/or drop tests). It does remain to be seen, however, if it will ever leave the ground with crew.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:18 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline AS-503

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 431
  • Orion Fab Team
  • Colorado USA
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 116
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.

Online rcoppola

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2072
  • USA
  • Liked: 1408
  • Likes Given: 623
F9/Dragon. From Pad 39A. (The Dream - December 2015.) (What I suspect - December 2016)

« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:33 pm by rcoppola »
Sail the oceans of space and set foot upon new lands!
http://www.stormsurgemedia.com

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28744
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 8843
  • Likes Given: 5740
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.
I strongly disagree. I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV, and after a successful unmanned Orion-on-DeltaIV launch this year, just you watch that grow. I know it's "InternetTrue"TM that Delta IV is "unsuitable."

That said, I agree Falcon/Dragon will leave the ground with crew well before Orion does.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2014 11:53 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Khadgars

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1021
  • Long Beach, California
  • Liked: 221
  • Likes Given: 638
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!



Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.

The first two, possibly three flights of SLS/Orion seem like a sure thing to me.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Offline Nomadd

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3725
  • Boca Chica, Texas
  • Liked: 9900
  • Likes Given: 408
 The poll looks like a real squeaker so far.
« Last Edit: 01/10/2014 11:19 am by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline mb199

  • Member
  • Posts: 22
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Delta IV/Orion. (more likely than half of your options)

Also, you wrote STS/Orion when I think you mean SLS/Orion. :)
(Although STS/capsule was once looked at.)

Orion will never leave the ground!

Delta IV is highly unlikely to ever be "manned rated" in the eyes of NASA. Even if the green light were given today for a manned rated Delta IV, the others would still fly first, which is the topic at hand.
I agree that a manned Orion will likely never fly. If there were actual real AND funded missions for Orion I would be more optimistic.
I strongly disagree. I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV, and after a successful unmanned Orion-on-DeltaIV launch this year, just you watch that grow. I know it's "InternetTrue"TM that Delta IV is "unsuitable."

That said, I agree Falcon/Dragon will leave the ground with crew well before Orion does.

What purpose would there be to put a manned Orion on a Delta IV??

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28744
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 8843
  • Likes Given: 5740
What purpose to Orion on Ares I?
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline vt_hokie

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3036
  • Hazlet, NJ
  • Liked: 92
  • Likes Given: 252
The poll sure looks like a real squeaker so far.

My heart is still with Dream Chaser though!  :)

Offline arachnitect

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1442
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 463
SpaceX does have a big head start with the cargo Dragon. I think modifying it to a manned vehicle gives them the edge.


SpaceX' edge is overstated: they're changing pretty much everything for manned dragon (aero, propulsion, power, recovery, ecs, etc.). I assume the mods are all well underway, but we've seen very few of them in the open.

I think SpaceX will win by submitting a ridiculously low bid.


I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV

That would have been good to have circa 2007.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2014 12:12 am by arachnitect »

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5155
  • Liked: 987
  • Likes Given: 343
I've already seen a hint of some internal support for Orion on Delta IV

That would have been good to have circa 2007.
Make that 2004/2005 when VSE was still on track
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline AS-503

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 431
  • Orion Fab Team
  • Colorado USA
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 116
What purpose to Orion on Ares I?

That would imply 1.5 architecture, which we know has been *dead* since CxP was cancelled.
For example, an Orion on Delta IV means an Orion to LEO (or high eccentric LEO like the upcoming test flight).
As you well know, Orion is not an LEO specific spacecraft. In fact it has been touted time and again as a superior spacecraft to the LEO competition (rightfully so), but it needs SLS (or a return to 1.5 or 2.0 launch architecture) to be BEO.
So Orion launching on a Delta IV is NOT going to BEO, but you knew that already. ;)
« Last Edit: 01/08/2014 12:52 am by AS-503 »

Offline A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8591
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 375
  • Likes Given: 167

That would imply 1.5 architecture, which we know has been *dead* since CxP was cancelled.
For example, an Orion on Delta IV means an Orion to LEO (or high eccentric LEO like the upcoming test flight).
As you well know, Orion is not an LEO specific spacecraft. In fact it has been touted time and again as a superior spacecraft to the LEO competition (rightfully so), but it needs SLS (or a return to 1.5 or 2.0 launch architecture) to be BEO.
So Orion launching on a Delta IV is NOT going to BEO, but you knew that already. ;)

Or a 4.0 architecture.

The Delta IV could fly the Orion to a propellant depot where it picks up a lunar lander, inspace stage and the return_to_Earth propellant.

Tags: