Market for new build Falcon 1's?

[Wigles]

Hi, been reading for a while but thought I might chime in with a post.

I have been looking at what a falcon 1 style launch vehicle may be able to launch with new build Merlin 1-D engines. Based on a 160,000 lbf Merlin 1-D first stage (I believe Spacex has stated it should be capable of this) and 2x Kestrel's for the second stage, I estimate that it should be able to lift approx 4000lbs into LEO from a total launch mass of 134,000lbs.

Estimating a cost increase of roughly 20% over the 1e estimate, and accounting for inflation since 2010, this puts it still at roughly $15 Mil. Compared to the Vega which costs roughly 30Mil per launch it would appear to be at least economically feasible.

I understand that SpaceX has had to focus its resources on the F9 & FH, but could another company just purchase the engines off SpaceX and licence the tech?

[Danderman]

You are almost describing the Falcon 1-E, which had a payload capability of 1,000 kg, with one Kestrel engine in the second stage.

[Wigles]

But the falcon 1e design was based on the Merlin 1c, wasn't it? Since then the merlin has evolved and so I was looking into what an evolved F1 might be capable of and then evaluating the market.

[ArbitraryConstant]

But the falcon 1e design was based on the Merlin 1c, wasn't it? Since then the merlin has evolved and so I was looking into what an evolved F1 might be capable of and then evaluating the market.

Yeah, Merlin 1D has more than doubled thrust over the initial version.

But I don't think SpaceX or anyone else will ever build another Falcon 1. One suspects SpaceX will chase any launches it might have wanted with a reusable Falcon 9.

[douglas100]

...I understand that SpaceX has had to focus its resources on the F9 & FH, but could another company just purchase the engines off SpaceX and licence the tech?

I doubt very much SpaceX is going to sell their engines to anyone else.

[R7]

I doubt very much SpaceX is going to sell their engines to anyone else.

If the price is right why not? Reanimated F-1 would not compete with their customers. Maybe just one each, F1R?

[sdsds]

Link to an earlier discussion:

[dror]

I have been looking at what a falcon 1 style launch vehicle may be able to launch with new build Merlin 1-D engines. Based on a 160,000 lbf Merlin 1-D first stage (I believe Spacex has stated it should be capable of this) and 2x Kestrel's for the second stage, I estimate that it should be able to lift approx 4000lbs into LEO from a total launch mass of 134,000lbs.

Hi,
I was just thinking the same.
There is a market of small to mini sattelites that can use an affordable booster.
A possible new aplication could be a smaller resuply truck like a mini dragon, or a diffrent design based on a F1 second stage.
F1 can also be designed to be air launched with an even bigger payload.

[Jim]

There is no market to sustain it

[DJPledger]

SpaceX will never build any new Falcon 1's as they are fully committed to F9R, FH, manned Dragon, and Raptor. The Falcon 1 is dead and buried so we might as well close this discussion because Falcon 1 is ain't going to be resurrected.

[dror]

There is no market to sustain it

According to SpaceX attitude as presented by Barry Matsumori, that is true if you are looking in the rear view mirror. Looking ahead, they hope that the lower launch costs will create a new market, and that is true especially for smaller payloads where the launch cost is a bigger part of the total price.
After the F9R is proven, and FH is steady, they will look back and revive the F1 as a reusable mini launcher to complete the fleet. Mark my words

[guckyfan]

There is no market to sustain it

According to SpaceX attitude as presented by Barry Matsumori, that is true if you are looking in the rear view mirror. Looking ahead, they hope that the lower launch costs will create a new market, and that is true especially for smaller payloads where the launch cost is a bigger part of the total price.
After the F9R is proven, and FH is steady, they will look back and revive the F1 as a reusable mini launcher to complete the fleet. Mark my words

They can't make it reusable, so I see it very unlikely. Also they may be able to fly some of those payloads as secondaries.

[Jim]

According to SpaceX attitude as presented by Barry Matsumori, that is true if you are looking in the rear view mirror. Looking ahead, they hope that the lower launch costs will create a new market, and that is true especially for smaller payloads where the launch cost is a bigger part of the total price.
After the F9R is proven, and FH is steady, they will look back and revive the F1 as a reusable mini launcher to complete the fleet. Mark my words

And they will be marked as wrong (see below).  You have no basis to make that statement.    There is no market in F1 for Spacex (That is true looking forward too.), it would be just a distraction.  It does nothing for their long term goals and it would not make money.    There is no benefit for a F1R.
Spacex can fly small payloads as secondaries on F9 and FH.

[Jim]

They can't make it reusable, so I see it very unlikely. Also they may be able to fly some of those payloads as secondaries.

Bingo and we have the deal breaker.  The single first stage engine can not be throttled low enough to allow for landing the first stage. 

[Jim]

F1 can also be designed to be air launched

Unsubstantiated.  what are you basing that on?

[savuporo]

There is no market in F1 for Spacex (That is true looking forward too.), it would be just a distraction.  It does nothing for their long term goals and it would not make money. 

Of course, Vega and Epsilon were just recently brought online, but i dont think either of these programs are really space launch programs.

( they exist because the agencies funding them need to have people who are capable of building ahem, suborbital point to point package delivery rockets , if and when the need arises )

[Wigles]

Even if your assertation that Vega and Epsilon are just covers for ballistic missile programs was the only reason they exist, customers are still paying over 30 mil per launch for roughly 1.5t to LEO. I would presume that these customers would rather pay 15mil.

Also transfering the F1 launches to F9 as secondaries I presume that the customer wants a similar altitude and inclination to the primary payload, or is willing to use a large amount of fuel to reposition?

I understand that the profit margin probably isnt as large as the juicy GTO or EELV market, and hence I can understand why SpX isnt interested.

Edit: also, a question. Why would having only a single engine mean it can't be throttled low enough for landing? I assume its something to do with the weight difference between the f1 and F9 first stages?

[Patchouli]

Musk is interested in Mars colonization and small LVs don't fit into the later parts of that plan.

LVs like Launcher One and Pegasus might be a better match for the small sat customers who can't wait to be a secondary payload on a larger rocket.

[savuporo]

Even if your assertation that Vega and Epsilon are just covers for ballistic missile programs was the only reason they exist,

I didn't assert that. I guessed that they are skill and industrial base retention/creation programs. There is a difference.

customers are still paying over 30 mil per launch for roughly 1.5t to LEO. I would presume that these customers would rather pay 15mil.

I have not looked but I suspect these customers that fly on these rockets have strong non budgetary reasons to do so

I also think pulling F1 from the market was an annoying move and did a lot of damage in many ways

[cryptoanarchy]

You are almost describing the Falcon 1-E, which had a payload capability of 1,000 kg, with one Kestrel engine in the second stage.

SpaceX could make a new Falcon 1 with the Merlin 1D on the first stage but it would have to have the same tank width as the Falcon 9 to be economical.  Making shorter tanks on the same line is not too hard, and would be much more economical then having a second production line. Maybe an expert could figure what height it would be (much shorter) and if it would present a problem.  The second stage would be Kestrel or even a super Draco.  The whole idea would be to reuse current SpaceX production not create many new items or restart old lines.  If that rocket could be built cheaply enough it might not matter that it is not reusable.