Author Topic: COTS Cuts  (Read 33736 times)

Offline aero313

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #120 on: 08/03/2006 02:39 pm »
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yinzer - 3/8/2006  2:13 AM

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Jim - 2/8/2006  9:13 PM

none that will make them any more viable in the near term. It isn't technology that is grounding the RLV, it is a business case. Find a reason to fly it more than 20 times a year and someone will build one. And built it and they will come is not a good enough reason for NASA to it. That would be a Commerce Dept job

How much money is NASA planning to spend on the CaLV? What is the dry weight of the single largest component that will fly on it? How much propellant are they going to launch into LEO?

I think that an RLV would be useful in the context of the VSE, especially at higher mission rates. Or rather, it would be useful for exploring the moon.

Actually, I disagree with Jim on one point. I DO think technology is grounding RLVs. All we need is higher mass fraction structures, higher Isp propulsion, and reliable thermal protection systems. I also feel that R&D should be one of NASA's primary missions. I fully support RLV technology research. My BS detector starts going off when people and startup companies claim orders of magnitude reductions in launch cost thanks to unproven RLV technologies. The problems with this are 1) we don't yet know the full cost to fully develop these technologies and turn them into to operational systems, 2) we don't yet know the extent and cost of post-mission refurbishment, 3) the cost estimates ALWAYS overlook at least 50% of the true operational costs and 4) the flight rates used to make the business case are always optimistic by at least an order of magnitude.  And as I've said before, these issues (except for #2) aren't unique to RLVs.

The problem is that VSE is a Presidential mandate (at least for now) and NASA has to do as it's told. COTS (to bring this back on topic) is supposed to be a commercial cargo delivery service, not an RLV development program. If you're goal is to ship a package cross country, you don't want to have to invent a new form of truck first. Reasonable people can debate whether or not NASA should be funding RLV research, but NASA's current mandate for COTS is package delivery, not R&D. Claiming that mythical vehicles and technology can do the job for a fraction of the price are naive at best.  Even the Russians have admitted that with Klipper:

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060802/52194380.html

Developing the CLV and CaLV from existing components and using existing infrastructure, processes, and trained people is a good story.  Unfortunately, even derivative vehicles such as these require more development effort and diverge more from the initial design than anyone ever expects.  This isn't necessarily intentional, physics just seems to get in the way.  For example, anyone who thinks that the new SRB-derived stages won't be brand new SRMs by the time they fly is naive or lying.  Unfortunately, other alternatives are probably even less well understood.

Offline mlorrey

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #121 on: 08/03/2006 09:24 pm »
We have higher Isp propulsion: RBCC engines show an average Isp from mach 0-24 of 1500 sec. This allows near-aircraft-level mass fractions. The NASA GTX vehicle would have demonstrated it this year if the project had not been cancelled.

We have better TPS: SHARP materials (hafnium diboride and zirconium diboride) allow mach 7 flight at sea level and mach 11 flight at 100,000 ft, have radio-transparent shock waves, reduce hypersonic drag by 90%, and have a peak thermal tolerance of over 2000 C. Unfortunately, NASA cancelled the SHARP program on claims of "duplicate research", despite there being no similar public programs, and the US Gov't has reclassified most information on the materials because they are used in guide fins for MIRVs, i.e. they are a 'dual use' technology. Now, what they thought to achieve by reclassifying something that is already out of the bag is beyond me, but I'm beyond wondering at the stupidity of government, anymore.

RBCC, TBCC, and SHARP are now being used in the DARPA projects focused on hypersonic global strike capability, particularly a scramjet propelled missile. The technology is here, it is mature and proven. The NASA VSA is nothing but corporate welfare for the defunct ICBM industry, as well as a form of disinformation, presenting the idea that Apollo is the best that the American government can achieve.
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Offline aero313

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #122 on: 08/03/2006 11:13 pm »
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mlorrey - 3/8/2006  5:11 PM

We have higher Isp propulsion: RBCC engines show an average Isp from mach 0-24 of 1500 sec. This allows near-aircraft-level mass fractions. The NASA GTX vehicle would have demonstrated it this year if the project had not been cancelled.

We have better TPS: SHARP materials (hafnium diboride and zirconium diboride) allow mach 7 flight at sea level and mach 11 flight at 100,000 ft, have radio-transparent shock waves, reduce hypersonic drag by 90%, and have a peak thermal tolerance of over 2000 C. Unfortunately, NASA cancelled the SHARP program on claims of "duplicate research", despite there being no similar public programs, and the US Gov't has reclassified most information on the materials because they are used in guide fins for MIRVs, i.e. they are a 'dual use' technology. Now, what they thought to achieve by reclassifying something that is already out of the bag is beyond me, but I'm beyond wondering at the stupidity of government, anymore.

Sorry, but these technologies are nowhere near mature enough to field an operational system in the next ten years. Should be be funding development and qualification testing of these technologies at NASA? Absolutely. Do I believe any operational system cost claims based on these technologies? Not a chance.

Looking at it another way, I'm willing to bet that the SSME and shuttle tiles were pushed as being similarly mature when the shuttle cost/benefit trades were done in 1972.


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RBCC, TBCC, and SHARP are now being used in the DARPA projects focused on hypersonic global strike capability, particularly a scramjet propelled missile. The technology is here, it is mature and proven.

And I'm still waiting to hear about even one OPERATIONAL system with flight history, full qualification data, and production cost numbers.

Quote
The NASA VSA is nothing but corporate welfare for the defunct ICBM industry, as well as a form of disinformation, presenting the idea that Apollo is the best that the American government can achieve.

Boy, that shtick is really getting old. I'm guessing you firmly believe that Big Oil killed the 100 mpg Fish carburetor also. By the way, I'm involved in the DARPA FALCON program. The "hypersonic test vehicle" (don't call it a weapon system) is in technical and cost trouble. Might that be part of the source of my skepticism on these new technologies?

Oh, but wait! The prime contractor is LockMart, poster child for the "defunct ICBM industry". Is this yet ANOTHER conspiracy to kill this technology?


BEEP ....  BEEP ... BEEP

That sound you hear is the BS detector going off.

Offline meiza

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #123 on: 08/04/2006 01:10 pm »
Why do we need higher ISP for reusables? Use two or three stages.

Offline aero313

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #124 on: 08/04/2006 03:33 pm »
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meiza - 4/8/2006  8:57 AM

Why do we need higher ISP for reusables? Use two or three stages.

You can certainly fly a multi stage reusable vehicle.  The problem is one of impact, er... recovery sites for the lower stages.  You either need to have multiple downrange recovery sites, with the attendant costs of multiple recovery teams and costs to return them to the launch site, or flyback lower stages with the additional complexity and cost of the return propulsion system.

There are collateral costs associated with these trades also.  Downrange recovery sites means that you now have additional weather constraints on launch (ELV's don't care if it's raining at the lower stage impact sites), which lead to more frequent scrubs and the not insignificant costs associated with that.  These costs include range costs (as a data point, VAFB charges about $150K for every launch attempt due to the need to bring personnel in, get range equipment operational, conduct weather balloon launches and tracking, etc.), TDY costs for launch site personnel, TDY costs for downrange recovery personnel, delay penalties imposed by the payload, potential refurbishment and/or retest of vehicle systems, etc.  Flyback boosters mean you now have really crappy mass fraction due to wings, landing gear, and control systems.  You also have doubled or tripled your launch prep costs due to the additonal systems to check out.  You also have additional logistics for mission critical spares and additional risk of launch scrubs due to failure in the booster return systems, not to mention the whole issue of third party liabilty for this UAV on it's return to base.  

I assume it's a UAV.  If it is a piloted system, you now have all the man-rated BS that the shuttle has to deal with.

And, of course, what's the cost impact to the system if you fail to recover the lower stage(s)?

Offline mlorrey

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #125 on: 08/04/2006 07:03 pm »
Quote
aero313 - 3/8/2006  6:00 PM

Quote
mlorrey - 3/8/2006  5:11 PM

We have higher Isp propulsion: RBCC engines show an average Isp from mach 0-24 of 1500 sec. This allows near-aircraft-level mass fractions. The NASA GTX vehicle would have demonstrated it this year if the project had not been cancelled.

We have better TPS: SHARP materials (hafnium diboride and zirconium diboride) allow mach 7 flight at sea level and mach 11 flight at 100,000 ft, have radio-transparent shock waves, reduce hypersonic drag by 90%, and have a peak thermal tolerance of over 2000 C. Unfortunately, NASA cancelled the SHARP program on claims of "duplicate research", despite there being no similar public programs, and the US Gov't has reclassified most information on the materials because they are used in guide fins for MIRVs, i.e. they are a 'dual use' technology. Now, what they thought to achieve by reclassifying something that is already out of the bag is beyond me, but I'm beyond wondering at the stupidity of government, anymore.

Sorry, but these technologies are nowhere near mature enough to field an operational system in the next ten years. Should be be funding development and qualification testing of these technologies at NASA? Absolutely. Do I believe any operational system cost claims based on these technologies? Not a chance.


Your argument is bogus. SHARP has been used on USAF ICBM MIRVS for at least two decades. It is the very epitome of "mature". RBCC engines have been tested to death in wind tunnels, the opportunity to build a flight test article in 2004 and fly it this year was cancelled. You can't say a technology isn't mature when ATK lobbyists were at the heart of preventing them being flight tested.

Quote
Quote
RBCC, TBCC, and SHARP are now being used in the DARPA projects focused on hypersonic global strike capability, particularly a scramjet propelled missile. The technology is here, it is mature and proven.

And I'm still waiting to hear about even one OPERATIONAL system with flight history, full qualification data, and production cost numbers.

Quote
The NASA VSA is nothing but corporate welfare for the defunct ICBM industry, as well as a form of disinformation, presenting the idea that Apollo is the best that the American government can achieve.

Boy, that shtick is really getting old. I'm guessing you firmly believe that Big Oil killed the 100 mpg Fish carburetor also. By the way, I'm involved in the DARPA FALCON program. The "hypersonic test vehicle" (don't call it a weapon system) is in technical and cost trouble. Might that be part of the source of my skepticism on these new technologies?

Oh, but wait! The prime contractor is LockMart, poster child for the "defunct ICBM industry". Is this yet ANOTHER conspiracy to kill this technology?


BEEP ....  BEEP ... BEEP

That sound you hear is the BS detector going off.

Um, no, LockMart doesn't build ICBMs, that is Thiokol's job. LockMart's market position is to lie to NASA about its nonexistent composite multi-lobed fuel tank technology, speaking of BS.
Director of International Spaceflight Museum - http://ismuseum.org
Founder, Lorrey Aerospace, B&T Holdings, and Open Metaverse Research Group (omrg.org). Advisor to various blockchain startups.

Offline aero313

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #126 on: 08/04/2006 08:50 pm »
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mlorrey - 4/8/2006  2:50 PM

Um, no, LockMart doesn't build ICBMs, that is Thiokol's job. LockMart's market position is to lie to NASA about its nonexistent composite multi-lobed fuel tank technology, speaking of BS.

LockMart doesn't build ICBMs?  That's pretty interesting since Martin Marietta was the prime contractor on Peacekeeper, SICBM, and Titan II; while Lockheed has been the prime contractor on Polaris, Poseidon, Trident I and Trident II - in other words, every FBM ever fielded by the US.

Offline mlorrey

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #127 on: 08/09/2006 05:07 am »
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aero313 - 4/8/2006  3:37 PM

Quote
mlorrey - 4/8/2006  2:50 PM

Um, no, LockMart doesn't build ICBMs, that is Thiokol's job. LockMart's market position is to lie to NASA about its nonexistent composite multi-lobed fuel tank technology, speaking of BS.

LockMart doesn't build ICBMs?  That's pretty interesting since Martin Marietta was the prime contractor on Peacekeeper, SICBM, and Titan II; while Lockheed has been the prime contractor on Polaris, Poseidon, Trident I and Trident II - in other words, every FBM ever fielded by the US.

Who made all the solid rocket engines? Either Thiokol, or Aerojet General. The primes dealt with systems integration and guidance, and thats it.
Director of International Spaceflight Museum - http://ismuseum.org
Founder, Lorrey Aerospace, B&T Holdings, and Open Metaverse Research Group (omrg.org). Advisor to various blockchain startups.

Offline Jim

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #128 on: 08/09/2006 11:28 am »
CSD also

Offline Cretan126

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #129 on: 08/10/2006 10:33 pm »

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mlorrey - 8/8/2006 10:54 PM
Quote
aero313 - 4/8/2006 3:37 PM
Quote
mlorrey - 4/8/2006 2:50 PM Um, no, LockMart doesn't build ICBMs, that is Thiokol's job. LockMart's market position is to lie to NASA about its nonexistent composite multi-lobed fuel tank technology, speaking of BS.
LockMart doesn't build ICBMs? That's pretty interesting since Martin Marietta was the prime contractor on Peacekeeper, SICBM, and Titan II; while Lockheed has been the prime contractor on Polaris, Poseidon, Trident I and Trident II - in other words, every FBM ever fielded by the US.
Who made all the solid rocket engines? Either Thiokol, or Aerojet General. The primes dealt with systems integration and guidance, and thats it.

 One of the misconceptions I pick up on this message board and many other places is equating rocket motors with launch vehicles.  The rocket motors are just a component element of the full launch vehicle system, albeit a major one.  Once upon a time many years ago, rocket science really was cutting-edge with real scientists blazing new technologies.  By and large, that era ended in the mid-sixties, if not before.  Since then it has been rocket engineering. Getting the rocket motors to work is no longer the hardest part, unless you want to do a historical re-creation (like SpaceX).  Making the whole system fly is the challenge now.  That is the role of the system integrator, including avionics and guidance.  That's truly "IT".


Offline STEFANALB

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RE: COTS Cuts
« Reply #130 on: 08/16/2006 03:02 am »
I'd love to hear what everyone posting here thinks will be the winner(s) of COTS. See vote under Private Launchers. Let's see if the collective knowledge will pinpoint the winners. :)

Offline guidanceisgo

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #131 on: 08/17/2006 04:45 am »
[/QUOTE] " The primes dealt with systems integration and guidance, and thats it.[/QUOTE]"

This statement sure makes things like guidance and control systems, vehicle aerodynamics, avionics,  aeroheating, navigation, mechanical structures, and separation ordnance sound like accessories!

Offline mlorrey

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #132 on: 08/17/2006 04:20 pm »
COTS will be cut and the money rerouted to pay for the cost overruns of the major contractors for ESAS. Mark my words.
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Offline Avron

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #133 on: 08/17/2006 05:58 pm »
Then I think there may be some legal action at a higher cost...

Offline DigitalMan

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Re: COTS Cuts
« Reply #134 on: 08/18/2006 02:49 am »
Also, I think congress would take issue with redirecting those funds since they actually looked pretty excited about COTS in one of the hearings, possibly in may.

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