Possible SpaceX manifest for 2014

[smoliarm]

...
Wasn't there recently a mention they want to upgrade the Pad for Falcon Heavy? In that case they would build a second integration building for the Heavy and a Heavy strongarm too. That setup could process two launch vehicles in parallel effectively doubling the Pad capacity, right?

No, it won't double the pad capacity - with respect to 2014.

[Robotbeat]

My guess is probably 6 launches in 2014 proper. But we shall see. I would put 6 launches per year as the point when there can be no question that SpaceX is a serious launch provider capable of delivering. Though they have to surpass at least 10 before they start eclipsing ULA as the dominant domestic launch provider.

Obviously they aren't going to do 14 launches in 2014. And if they do 8 or 9, I'd be VERY surprised (actually, astounded... I really don't think it'll happen). I'm fairly confident Falcon Heavy won't launch in 2014, but it might be pretty much the main thing happening at the Vandenberg pad all year, so I suppose it /might/ be possible (though if we haven't seen any Heavy-specific parts by the end of December 2013, I'd say not to expect a 2014 Falcon Heavy launch).

...but I'm not going to vote in the poll until the very end of December.

Remember, as of today (Sunday), they STILL haven't demonstrated more than 2 launches in a calendar year. It takes a lot of work and time to ramp up to a launch rate comparable to Soyuz. But 6 launches is possible, though by no means certain.

What will really be exciting is all the Dragon and Grasshopper work they'll be doing. If they do manage to recover a stage this year (by vertical landing on a pad), it will be tremendously awesome.

[Avron]

My guess is probably 6 launches in 2014 proper. But we shall see. I would put 6 launches per year as the point when there can be no question that SpaceX is a serious launch provider capable of delivering. Though they have to surpass at least 10 before they start eclipsing ULA as the dominant domestic launch provider.

Obviously they aren't going to do 14 launches in 2014. And if they do 8 or 9, I'd be VERY surprised. I'm fairly confident Falcon Heavy won't launch in 2014.

...but I'm not going to vote in the poll until the very end of December.

Remember, as of today (Sunday), they STILL haven't demonstrated more than 2 launches in a calendar year. It takes a lot of work and time to ramp up to a launch rate comparable to Soyuz. But 6 launches is possible, though by no means certain.

What will really be exciting is all the Dragon and Grasshopper work they'll be doing. If they do manage to recover a stage this year (by vertical landing on a pad), it will be tremendously awesome.

I think that these two launches before the end of 2014, will be telling as how quick they can get the launch rate up. Looks like the pads have been the constraint in the later half of the year. However, I do not know how may  stages are in work or storage other than the pics out of the factory. The factory does seem to have been enlarged going by some captions and pics from spacex. We also know that the shuttle pad under dispute may have an impact on plans, but hopefully we will hear from the GAO soon..  Agreed 2014 could well be "tremendously awesome."

[TrevorMonty]

2015 launch of FH means there is higher probability of recovering the boosters/1st stages.

[Sohl]

Robotbeat:

My guess is probably 6 launches in 2014 proper. But we shall see.

That's pretty close to my early estimate: 7 launches in 2014. If you allow me a range, I'd say 7 plus or minus 2 with maybe 80% confidence.

I'm still waiting to see if my 2013 estimate of 3 (or my pessimistic re-estimate of 2 made in June) pans out. 

[deltaV]

Here are the SpaceX Canaveral launches planned between now and the end of 2014 according to Salo's schedule:
NET December 20 2013 - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or January)
February 22 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA, FIREBIRD A, FIREBIRD B, Ho‘oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
May - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 6 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December - Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

There's one SpaceX Vandenberg launch planned:
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E

My current guess is that the December launches will slip into 2015 so we'll see about 6 Cape launches and 1 Vandenberg launch next year.

[TrevorMonty]

Could any of Dec14 launches be brought forward into Oct or Nov? Both these months a presently empty.

[Ben the Space Brit]

Could any of Dec14 launches be brought forward into Oct or Nov? Both these months a presently empty.

There are lots of issues that control that. For example, the schedule for delivery of the spacecraft and other activity on the Eastern Range as well as maintenance cycles for both the pad and range. There are likely many others.

[JBF]

Don't forget you have the in flight abort test somewhere in there.

[TrevorMonty]

Can the abort test be done at Vandenburg?.

[JBF]

Can the abort test be done at Vandenburg?.

At first glance I'd say no.  Everything about that rocket will be set up for an ISS orbit. So the abort software you want to test will be expecting an eastward trajectory. 

But you can always change the software.  In the end it would need NASA approval for that type of test deviation.

 

[Danderman]

Here are the SpaceX Canaveral launches planned between now and the end of 2014 according to Salo's schedule:
NET December 20 2013 - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or January)
February 22 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA, FIREBIRD A, FIREBIRD B, Ho‘oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
May - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 6 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December - Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

There's one SpaceX Vandenberg launch planned:
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E

My current guess is that the December launches will slip into 2015 so we'll see about 6 Cape launches and 1 Vandenberg launch next year.

According to this thread:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30543.0

Triana goes up in November 2014 from the Cape.

[Jason1701]

What is Ho‘oponopono 2?

[corrodedNut]

What is Ho‘oponopono 2?

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/ho-oponopono.htm

[deltaV]

According to this thread:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30543.0

Triana goes up in November 2014 from the Cape.

Salo has that launch in Jan 2015. Given the habit of schedules to slip rightwards I'm inclined to believe the later date.

[smoliarm]

...

According to this thread:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30543.0

Triana goes up in November 2014 from the Cape.

According to recent news from NASA:
"DSCOVR Mission Moves Forward to 2015 Launch"
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/dscovr-mission-moves-forward-to-2015-launch/#.UqDQKeL_lu4

[arachnitect]

...

According to this thread:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30543.0

Triana goes up in November 2014 from the Cape.

According to recent news from NASA:
"DSCOVR Mission Moves Forward to 2015 Launch"
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/dscovr-mission-moves-forward-to-2015-launch/#.UqDQKeL_lu4

That link says fiscal 2015, which means calendar 2014 is still possible

Slip to calendar 2015 is a cynical but probably safe bet.
U.S. launch schedule page says Jan 2015. Don't know where that's from, but I believe it.

[Jason1701]

What is Ho‘oponopono 2?

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/ho-oponopono.htm

Thanks. I thought it was a separate launch.

[Danderman]

...

According to this thread:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30543.0

Triana goes up in November 2014 from the Cape.

According to recent news from NASA:
"DSCOVR Mission Moves Forward to 2015 Launch"
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/dscovr-mission-moves-forward-to-2015-launch/#.UqDQKeL_lu4

That link says fiscal 2015, which means calendar 2014 is still possible

Slip to calendar 2015 is a cynical but probably safe bet.
U.S. launch schedule page says Jan 2015. Don't know where that's from, but I believe it.

"Early fiscal 2015" = 4th Quarter 2014 or 1st Quarter 2015