Possible SpaceX manifest for 2014

[spectre9]

The implication that I've always gotten is Orbcomm is willing to wait forever and doesn't care about black spots 

[Robotbeat]

There's a lot of /infrastructure/ that is relying on SpaceX right now.

ISS logistics (especially downmass), global sat phone constellation, and global M2M constellation. The last two are important in subtle ways to the world economy. To Iridium and Orbcomm, especially, but lots of applications rely on those constellations, and once those constellations are upgraded and improved, more will follow. And as SpaceX (and others) succeed in lowering costs while expanding access, new companies will sprout up to produce more infrastructure that others will build applications on, such as Skybox's near-real-time high resolution imagery or Kymeta's lower-latency global satellite broadband internet constellation. These are just examples and just the beginning.

With sufficiently advanced technology (i.e. tens or hundreds of thousands of channels per satellite) and a big enough constellation, one can imagine global cellphone conglomerates opting to use a massive constellation of large, LEO or MEO satellites to provide coverage (especially in non-urban areas) as a lower cost option than upkeep and rental of millions cell towers worldwide. This sort of thing would be far more likely if launch costs were much lower.

[beancounter]

There's a lot of /infrastructure/ that is relying on SpaceX right now.

Yes there certainly is.  But that does provide an indication as to customers' assessments of SpaceX's potential and I don't think they'll be disappointed.  That assessment hasn't changed in any way recently even with a virtually new launch vehicle and that's a telling point IMO.

I know it's been a long wait for them to get to get to this point but I think that the next flight will see the start of a rate of approx. one a month for SpaceX.  They have the vehicle that provides them and their customers with the required performance and they seem to have sorted out their production so they can ramp up to meet demand.

They're an exciting company to be watching given that they are not prepared to simply rest on the laurals but continue to push onward to the goal of reusable vehicles and the company mission.

[TrevorMonty]

At time of writing SES8 had just slipped from 22Nov to 25Nov, sounds like it is more to do with backlogs at the pad, than F9 or SpaceX. There is a lot riding on this launch especially the issues with 2nd not starting for second burn. If there are any problems that stop this mission being a success, I expect some of SpaceX customers will switch launch providers. Here is hoping it is 100% successful/boring.

With SpaceX there is always something interesting going. The next 12 months  looking very exciting, new GH , 1st stage recovery on varies missions, Dragon2 launch abort tests, FH launch (2015 more likely), Raptor testing/development and most important of all lots of (hopefully boring) commercial launches. 

[beancounter]

At time of writing SES8 had just slipped from 22Nov to 25Nov, sounds like it is more to do with backlogs at the pad, than F9 or SpaceX. There is a lot riding on this launch especially the issues with 2nd not starting for second burn. If there are any problems that stop this mission being a success, I expect some of SpaceX customers will switch launch providers. Here is hoping it is 100% successful/boring.

With SpaceX there is always something interesting going. The next 12 months  looking very exciting, new GH , 1st stage recovery on varies missions, Dragon2 launch abort tests, FH launch (2015 more likely), Raptor testing/development and most important of all lots of (hopefully boring) commercial launches.

As well, it seems they want to give their launch crew a bit more rest.  Probably that crew does lots of other stuff besides just launch vehicle ops.

In answer to Prober, I have no issue with them manufacturing V1.1 vehicles in advance even after only one launch.  I'd say they had it fitted out with mobs of sensors and the data they had provided additional confidence over and above their design and ground testing.  After all, they were producing Merlin 1Ds well before finishing their qualification IIRC.

[grahamhewett]

If SpaceX launch Thaicom 6 in december, does anyone think they might do another launch in January before the CRS3 flight? The next one in the list is: FIREBIRD B, Ho‘oponopono 2 - would it be feasible to launch it in Jan?

To keep up with their launch backlog for 2014, missing out January would put more pressure on the rest of the year. Of course the processing flow of the stages might preclude swapping the order.

cheers
Graham

[mlindner]

If SpaceX launch Thaicom 6 in december, does anyone think they might do another launch in January before the CRS3 flight? The next one in the list is: FIREBIRD B, Ho‘oponopono 2 - would it be feasible to launch it in Jan?

To keep up with their launch backlog for 2014, missing out January would put more pressure on the rest of the year. Of course the processing flow of the stages might preclude swapping the order.

cheers
Graham

Shotwell already mentioned this I seem to remember. She said there was going to be nothing in January and then there would be a constant cadence of flights after that.

I think it was the ISPCS talk at 19m04s.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GT9Crl1ZOg#t=19m04s

[TrevorMonty]

If their website manifest is still valid, I count 14 for 2014. Plus LAS testing for Dragon. 15 launches in 11months, they are going to be busy.

[guckyfan]

If their website manifest is still valid, I count 14 for 2014. Plus LAS testing for Dragon. 15 launches in 11months, they are going to be busy.

One of them the Heay test launch from Vandenberg. I think all the others go from Florida. 14 launches in 11 Months is certainly ambitious.

[mlindner]

If their website manifest is still valid, I count 14 for 2014. Plus LAS testing for Dragon. 15 launches in 11months, they are going to be busy.

One of them the Heay test launch from Vandenberg. I think all the others go from Florida. 14 launches in 11 Months is certainly ambitious.

Well CRS-3 is set for February 22nd. So that will be 14 launches in roughly 10 months or 1 launch roughly every 22 days. Seems like a rather tough launch rate.

[guckyfan]

Well CRS-3 is set for February 22nd. So that will be 14 launches in roughly 10 months or 1 launch roughly every 22 days. Seems like a rather tough launch rate.

Why would you not count in February? That's the time when CRS-3 is prepared.

[smoliarm]

If their website manifest is still valid, I count 14 for 2014. Plus LAS testing for Dragon. 15 launches in 11months, they are going to be busy.

Their manifest is still OK, it is your reading.
Note that the column "Year*" has asterisk, and the footnote says:
"*Year indicates vehicle arrival at launch site."

So, it's not a launch.

[smoliarm]

...

Well CRS-3 is set for February 22nd. So that will be 14 launches in roughly 10 months or 1 launch roughly every 22 days. Seems like a rather tough launch rate.

CRS-3 is set for February 11th.
As for 14 launches --
3 of them are already rescheduled for 2015, and another 2 are likely to do the same soon.

[Comga]

salo's list is currently

2014
February 22 -    Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA,
                            FIREBIRD A, FIREBIRD B, Ho‘oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March -       Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April -                AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Proton)
May -                AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 6 -            Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 -    Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December -       Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

(salo lists launch dates.  The SpaceX manifiest list "hardware at launch site".)
So CRS/SpX-3 in February.
Nine more from SLC-40 in ten months including one in December, one that may launch on another rocket in December, one NET December, and one TBD.
So perhaps 7 in  a bit over 10 months.  One every 45 days.
Still a pretty high pace.
When was the last time a rocket was launched at that cadence?

[aga]

When was the last time a rocket was launched at that cadence?

soyuz does cca 15 launches every year... and proton does cca 10 launches (and even ariane 5 launches about 6 times every year)
this year soyuz launched 13 times so far... (proton 8 times, atlas 7)

[smoliarm]

When was the last time a rocket was launched at that cadence?

soyuz does cca 15 launches every year... and proton does cca 10 launches (and even ariane 5 launches about 6 times every year)
this year soyuz launched 13 times so far... (proton 8 times, atlas 7)

I'm not sure it's worthwhile to compare launch rates of Falcon with that of Soyuz or Proton.
Soyuz has multiple launch pads @ multiple sites, the pad processing (/testing) can be done in parallel. Therefore, their total Flights-Per-Year reflects production rate (approximately), nothing else.

But with SpaceX - the situation is different. Their production rate is more or less known: from the pictures of their factory floor one can see that they can produce 1 F9 core per month. Also, we know they can produce Merlins at corresponding rate (IIRC, they say 5 M1D per week currently).
As I understand, the pad processing time is the key factor for their launch rate in 2014. For this year, they do not have payloads for Vandenberg, so it is one launch pad & one testing stand.
For F9 v1.1 they have demonstrated so far
*** for the pad flow
Cassiope - 73 days (Sep 29, 2013 - Jul 18, 2013)
SES-8     - 68 days (Nov 25, 2013 - Sep 18, 2013)

*** for McGregor testing
SES-8     - 62 days (Sep 14, 2013 - Jul 14, 2013)

Of course, these are *first tries*, the rate WILL improve, we just do not know by how much.
(actually, for McGregor testing - it's the second try)
So, to the original question
>>When was the last time a rocket was launched at that cadence?
I would add "from the same pad"

[TrevorMonty]

With only a single pad, it will not take much for launch dates to start slipping. A CRS launch could easily be delayed by ISS issues which will effect next launch/launches.

[Lurker Steve]

With only a single pad, it will not take much for launch dates to start slipping. A CRS launch could easily be delayed by ISS issues which will effect next launch/launches.

It's not the pad. It's the integration building. Rockets spend very little time at the pad.

[smoliarm]

With only a single pad, it will not take much for launch dates to start slipping. A CRS launch could easily be delayed by ISS issues which will effect next launch/launches.

It's not the pad. It's the integration building. Rockets spend very little time at the pad.

Do they have a second "integration building" at LC40 ?
If *no*, could we use this term (pad) - to refer to whole flow of pre-launch process - pleease

[guckyfan]

With only a single pad, it will not take much for launch dates to start slipping. A CRS launch could easily be delayed by ISS issues which will effect next launch/launches.

It's not the pad. It's the integration building. Rockets spend very little time at the pad.

Do they have a second "integration building" at LC40 ?
If *no*, could we use this term (pad) - to refer to whole flow of pre-launch process - pleease

Wasn't there recently a mention they want to upgrade the Pad for Falcon Heavy? In that case they would build a second integration building for the Heavy and a Heavy strongarm too. That setup could process two launch vehicles in parallel effectively doubling the Pad capacity, right?