Author Topic: Possible SpaceX manifest for 2014 (Read 37805 times)

Lars_J · « **Reply #20 on:** 11/03/2013 07:39 pm »

Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 11/03/2013 02:06 pm

My gut feeling is that there will be no more than six flights from SLC-40 and an indeterminate number from SLC-4W (dependent on the number of available payloads).

From what I've seen the bottleneck for satellites isn't going to be production, it's going to be launch slots and how rapidly they can turn around the pads.

Yep, and the SES-Thaicom window will give us a good idea of an upper limit for the pad turn around. (They are unlikely to get worse at it after that first time)

Lars_J · « **Reply #21 on:** 11/03/2013 09:06 pm »

Quote from: GalacticIntruder on 11/02/2013 07:44 pm

When it comes to satellite launches at the Cape, they have bitten off more they can chew. Now they are behind for 2013, and they cannot catch up for 2014. Things will just snowball.

A healthy backlog is the sign of a healthy company. And no, things will not just "snowball"... If customers are unhappy with delays, they will walk (there are alternatives, you may have heard of them), and SpaceX can respond by adjusting their prices/contracts. This is an open market.

Given that we have just had the first launch of what they consider their "operational" LV, 2014 should allow them to bite into their backlog. The delay between SES and Thaicom will be very informative about what kind of launch rate we can expect going forward.

beancounter · « **Reply #22 on:** 11/04/2013 06:52 am »

Seems to be several posters demonstrating a lot of pessimism surrounding SpaceX and their backlog. I would like to understand their reasons for this other than a backlog. Anyone care to comment - Prober, GIntruder?

guckyfan · « **Reply #23 on:** 11/04/2013 07:13 am »

Quote from: beancounter on 11/04/2013 06:52 am

Seems to be several posters demonstrating a lot of pessimism surrounding SpaceX and their backlog. I would like to understand their reasons for this other than a backlog. Anyone care to comment - Prober, GIntruder?

That scepticism has a long history.

They will never get Falcon 9 to fly.

They will never get commercial customers for Falcon 9, too unreliable.

They will not get to reusable launch vehicles in the next 20 years, if ever.

They will not get beyond 3 or 4 launches a year based on their launch history.

spectre9 · « **Reply #24 on:** 11/04/2013 11:59 am »

I'm at the point where I want to focus on the positives.

The new Merlin 1D octaweb cluster works in flight, the payload fairing works in flight.

That's about all they really need to start the next phase which is pushing the payload performance of v1.1. The sat they launched was small. They now have to prove they can put a big one where the customer wants it to go.

Ben the Space Brit · « **Reply #25 on:** 11/04/2013 12:23 pm »

Quote from: beancounter on 11/04/2013 06:52 am

Seems to be several posters demonstrating a lot of pessimism surrounding SpaceX and their backlog. I would like to understand their reasons for this other than a backlog. Anyone care to comment - Prober, GIntruder?

My scepticism is based purely on past experience. SpaceX inevitably takes longer to achieve its goals than its own marketing claims and does so at a much lower flight rate. They might get up to 12 launches/year by 2015 but not next year. They will still be honing their procedures and ironing out unexpected wrinkles in their plans.

Prober · « **Reply #26 on:** 11/04/2013 12:38 pm »

Quote from: beancounter on 11/04/2013 06:52 am

Seems to be several posters demonstrating a lot of pessimism surrounding SpaceX and their backlog. I would like to understand their reasons for this other than a backlog. Anyone care to comment - Prober, GIntruder?

Don't put a label on my posting

I call it as it see it. The problems with SpaceX might not be with the HW, but with the management. Re-read the fine collection of threads on this site and make up your own mind.....enjoy!

newpylong · « **Reply #27 on:** 11/04/2013 03:07 pm »

Why is skepticism labelled as pessimism here and on other threads it's normal? Just because this is SpaceX?

I would say people are optimistic but are assessing based on recent history and the reality of the situation.

John.bender · « **Reply #28 on:** 11/04/2013 03:45 pm »

I understand the skepticism as we have seen delays in the past and continue to. But what I also see is something fantastic happening. Commercialization of space is beginning, costs have the potential to significantly decline and a company that is totally thinking out side of the box and possibly changing the way we think about space. Guckyfan listed 5 reasons to be pessimistic and some have proved to be unfounded. As we check off each of those reasons the environment changes in a significant way. Great reason to be optimistic as we have a company here that has broken down many barriers.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #29 on:** 11/04/2013 03:50 pm »

Quote from: newpylong on 11/04/2013 03:07 pm

Why is skepticism labelled as pessimism here and on other threads it's normal? Just because this is SpaceX?

I would say people are optimistic but are assessing based on recent history and the reality of the situation.

One gets the feeling from lots of people that they sort of have an ax to grind against SpaceX, not that they're just being conservative about expectations from SpaceX. It's possible to have a realistic perspective on their likely launch rate while still rooting for them (not at the expense of other folks like Orbital or ULA, etc).

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #30 on:** 11/04/2013 03:53 pm »

Quote from: Prober on 11/04/2013 12:38 pm

Quote from: beancounter on 11/04/2013 06:52 am
Seems to be several posters demonstrating a lot of pessimism surrounding SpaceX and their backlog. I would like to understand their reasons for this other than a backlog. Anyone care to comment - Prober, GIntruder?

Don't put a label on my posting

I call it as it see it. The problems with SpaceX might not be with the HW, but with the management. Re-read the fine collection of threads on this site and make up your own mind.....enjoy!

Most of my Pessimism with SpaceX comes from the fact that I see their management making the exact same claims and mistakes as my upper management does. This management style does not lead to faster / cheaper development. It only leads to burnt-out engineering staffs and unhappy customers.

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #31 on:** 11/04/2013 04:05 pm »

Quote from: Lurker Steve on 11/04/2013 03:53 pm

Most of my Pessimism with SpaceX comes from the fact that I see their management making the exact same claims and mistakes as my upper management does. This management style does not lead to faster / cheaper development. It only leads to burnt-out engineering staffs and unhappy customers.

Like what?

newpylong · « **Reply #32 on:** 11/04/2013 05:20 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/04/2013 03:50 pm

Quote from: newpylong on 11/04/2013 03:07 pm
Why is skepticism labelled as pessimism here and on other threads it's normal? Just because this is SpaceX?

I would say people are optimistic but are assessing based on recent history and the reality of the situation.
One gets the feeling from lots of people that they sort of have an ax to grind against SpaceX, not that they're just being conservative about expectations from SpaceX. It's possible to have a realistic perspective on their likely launch rate while still rooting for them (not at the expense of other folks like Orbital or ULA, etc).

Perhaps, but I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the crowd with an ax to grind with the rocket that will not be named.

Your last sentence is one that I wish were more true. I want nothing more than SpaceX to succeed and watching their progress has given our space industry a breath of fresh air. However, I have also enjoyed seeing Orbital getting onto the scene and I still love seeing ULA, Proton or ESA launch. Of course, I wish NASA the best with their flagship programs no matter what the obstacles may be.

Long story, there are a lot of great things going on, and one's gain does not need to be another's demise.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #33 on:** 11/04/2013 05:31 pm »

I wasn't saying that SpaceX can succeed totally without affecting other launch providers, merely saying you can cheer for all the players... that in a fair competition, the best would win (without being all fan-boi about wanting others to fail so yours can win).

mr. mark · « **Reply #34 on:** 11/04/2013 05:51 pm »

Quote from: Elmar Moelzer on 11/04/2013 04:05 pm

Quote from: Lurker Steve on 11/04/2013 03:53 pm
Most of my Pessimism with SpaceX comes from the fact that I see their management making the exact same claims and mistakes as my upper management does. This management style does not lead to faster / cheaper development. It only leads to burnt-out engineering staffs and unhappy customers.
Like what?

The biggest mistake you can make in your business is to look through the lens of another business. Every individual business case has it's own particular needs and circumstances. What works for one may not work for another. So saying your upper management mistakes may affect another business case in the same way may be completely off base.

Mangala · « **Reply #35 on:** 11/04/2013 06:42 pm »

Quote from: Roy_H on 11/02/2013 07:58 pm

As of today, this is the manifest.

NET December 22 - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or January)

2014
February 11 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA, FIREBIRD A, FIREBIRD B, Ho‘oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April 29 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Proton)
NLT June - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December - Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Proton)

So only CONAE(Argentina) seems to have disappeared vs SpaceX launch manifest

2015
January 13 - DSCOVR (Triana), Sunjammer (Solar Sail Demonstration) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
February - Satmex 7, ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

As this is my first post in this so interresting forum, i'd like first to salute all members and to ask to forgive my poor english.

Roy, is this a guess manifest or an official one by spacex, if so, where did you take it from?

Ben the Space Brit · « **Reply #36 on:** 11/04/2013 06:58 pm »

Quote from: Mangala on 11/04/2013 06:42 pm

Roy, is this a guess manifest or an official one by spacex, if so, where did you take it from?

It's a compilation of launch dates for next year from a variety of sources. Things change but this should be seen as what the guys on the ground at VAFB and CCAFS are expecting for next year, all going well.

Mangala · « **Reply #37 on:** 11/04/2013 07:46 pm »

Ok thanks!
So a prevision of four dragon cargo for ISS, the last one in December, i call that an ambitious plan. Hope all will go well.

oiorionsbelt · « **Reply #38 on:** 11/04/2013 08:03 pm »

Quote from: Roy_H on 11/02/2013 07:58 pm

snip:

NLT June - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

Now theres an acronym you don't see too often in a launch manifest.

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #39 on:** 11/04/2013 08:47 pm »

Quote from: oiorionsbelt on 11/04/2013 08:03 pm

Quote from: Roy_H on 11/02/2013 07:58 pm

snip:

NLT June - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

Now theres an acronym you don't see too often in a launch manifest.

Does that mean they finally stop waiting for SpaceX if they don't get a ride before June ?