Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 DISCUSSION AND UPDATES (THREAD 4)  (Read 183009 times)

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 DISCUSSION AND UPDATES (THREAD 4)
« Reply #460 on: 11/24/2013 01:58 am »
I don't think the US record over the last ~20 years is a valid basis for such projections as the US effectively withdrew from the commercial launch market years ago.  The market (at least with respect to SpaceX) is not only the US government, but the global market of commercially competed launches.  The FAA 2012 forecasts ~21/yr "addressable" GSO payloads/yr and ~30 NGSO payloads/yr for a total of ~51 payloads/yr through 2021.  (edit: the FAA NGSO forecast includes NASA commercial cargo and crew or ~7 NGSO payloads/yr through 2021),

Exactly.  For the last 20 years or so no U.S. launch service provider has been effectively competing for commercial launches, so the only U.S. launches have been those that aren't allowed to go to providers outside the U.S.  SpaceX is competing for all those plus the commercial launches that in recent decades have been going to Ariane and Russian launchers.

Ariane 5 alone had 7 launches last year and 5 the year before.  Zenit had 3 last year and 5 the year before, most of which were commercial communications satellites.  Proton had 11 last year and 9 the year before, and 13 of those 20 were commercial launches through ILS.

The market SpaceX is addressing is well over 10 Falcon 9 and 10 Falcon Heavy per year.  The only question is how much share SpaceX can capture.

And that's all before any possible effects of SpaceX lowering prices.  If there's any elasticity of demand at all, the lower prices SpaceX is announcing will mean a greater total market in several years, not just greater share for SpaceX.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 DISCUSSION AND UPDATES (THREAD 4)
« Reply #461 on: 11/24/2013 02:01 am »
Quote from: Avron
this does... http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/05/investing/elon-musk-space-x-ipo/index.html

The company is already flying cargo missions to the International Space Station for NASA, and delivering satellites into space for commercial customers. It has booked more than 50 additional cargo and satellite flights for paying customers through 2017, which should bring in revenues of $5 billion. And it says it has been cash flow positive for the past six years.

No it doesn't. It doesn't say operating cash flow, so I assume its net cash flow. If that is positive it just means SpaceX gets enough financing. And booked flights are just that, booked flights.

You're really grasping at straws.  Nobody includes loans or investments when they use the term "cash flow positive" unqualified.  Nobody.  "Cash flow" without any other qualifications always means cash flow from operations.

Offline TrevorMonty

I thought only ULA had LVs that could offer commercial launches. The rockets Orion has are ex ballistic missiles that can only be used for government launches.

Online Chris Bergin

This thread is so ruined by off topic posts that I've given up trying to trim it.

Starting Thread 5 is the best solution:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33335.0
« Last Edit: 11/24/2013 08:24 pm by Chris Bergin »

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