FAILURE: Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat-M – Meteor-M 2-1 et al. – Vostochny - Nov 28, 2017

[input~2]

"Meteor-M satellite was insured for about 2.5 billion rubles" ($43M)
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/589366

[ZachS09]

Well, there's always next time to try again.

That's if Roskosmos is confident enough to use Fregat once the investigation is over.

[smoliarm]

Too many problems with those Fregat and Briz upper stages in the past!

Only one Fregat failed until now.

May 21, 2009...Meridian No. 12L...Soyuz-2.1a/Fregat   PLE LC-43/4...Molniya[HEO]...Wrong orbit
Dec 23, 2011...Meridian 5...Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat-M   PLE LC-43/4...Molniya[FTO]...Fail to orbit
Aug 22, 2014...Galileo 5 & 6 (Doresa & Milena)...Soyuz-STB/Fregat-MT...Ko ELS...MEO-Gal[HEO]...Wrong orbit

May 21 2009 = human error, discrepancy in flight program data for Soyuz and Fregat
Dec 23 2011 = third stage aborted due to pressurization failure
Aug 22, 2014 = Fregat control system failure

>>Aug 22, 2014 = Fregat control system failure
- no, I recall there was quite different official assessment.
Therefore I'm not sure your first two explanations are correct.

Anyway my point was - we do NOT know for sure the root causes for those two failures.
And as we don't know - we can't exclude Fregat from *the list*

Also - there was Fobos-Grunt stuck in LEO. And its escape stage was *modified* Fregat.

[Liss]

May 21 2009 = human error, discrepancy in flight program data for Soyuz and Fregat
Dec 23 2011 = third stage aborted due to pressurization failure
Aug 22, 2014 = Fregat control system failure

>>Aug 22, 2014 = Fregat control system failure
- no, I recall there was quite different official assessment.
Therefore I'm not sure your first two explanations are correct.

Anyway my point was - we do NOT know for sure the root causes for those two failures.
And as we don't know - we can't exclude Fregat from *the list*

Also - there was Fobos-Grunt stuck in LEO. And its escape stage was *modified* Fregat.

Well, you are correct in the case of 2014 (this was a failure not in control system but in fuel system for attitude control thrusters). And I stand with my statement on two other failures.
As of Fobos Grunt, it was first of all a project management failure leading to launch of a defective spacecraft.

[Stevenzop]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

[input~2]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

Well, not impossible when looking at the flight path

[Liss]

Sven Grahn: Nothing has been found in orbit according to Space Command. Message with that content sent from JSpOC/SSA to the Cubesat owners waiting for TLEs.

[Chris Bergin]

More fireballs:
https://twitter.com/destandaard/status/935431838604058625
https://twitter.com/VTMNIEUWS/status/935417305592467461

Thanks to J-C St-Pτ‏ @jcstp

[woods170]

Too many problems with those Fregat and Briz upper stages in the past!

Only one Fregat failed until now.

Thanks for the correction - I thought there was more than one.

Previously Fregat had experienced:
- Two (2) full failures (both in 2011) One of those was the one-off Fregat-SB propulsion module for Phobos-Grunt.
- Two (2) partial failures (2009 and 2014)

[Liss]

Previously Fregat had experienced:
- Two (2) full failures (both in 2011) One of those was the one-off Fregat-SB propulsion module for Phobos-Grunt.
- Two (2) partial failures (2009 and 2014)

You are wrong. Only the 22 Aug 2014 mission failure was attributed to Fregat failure.

[Machdiamond]

More fireballs:
https://twitter.com/destandaard/status/935431838604058625
https://twitter.com/VTMNIEUWS/status/935417305592467461

Thanks to J-C St-Pτ‏ @jcstp

Reading the newspaper article, they mention 1 to 2 seconds duration. That does not sound very much like a rocket stage re-entry, nor do the pictures look like one.

I suspect it was a meteorite over Belgium around 7:10 am, unrelated to this.

[Jester]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

Well, not impossible when looking at the flight path

Thanks, you have a source of the flight path/trajectory ?

[russianhalo117]

More fireballs:
https://twitter.com/destandaard/status/935431838604058625
https://twitter.com/VTMNIEUWS/status/935417305592467461

Thanks to J-C St-Pτ‏ @jcstp

Reading the newspaper article, they mention 1 to 2 seconds duration. That does not sound very much like a rocket stage re-entry, nor do the pictures look like one.

I suspect it was a meteorite over Belgium around 7:10 am, unrelated to this.

Unless Fregat placed stack on a steep nadir trajectory or bounced off of the atmosphere to reenter later down the ground track.
Target orbit: 825.5 kilometers, 98.6 degrees toward the Equator
Nominal Ground tracks from the launch site.
http://russianspaceweb.com/vostochny-downrange.html

[Danderman]

My vague recollection is that Fregat does not have a uplink command link. And, I can’t think of a reason to provide new commands to an upper stage during nominal flight.

[russianhalo117]

My vague recollection is that Fregat does not have a uplink command link. And, I can’t think of a reason to provide new commands to an upper stage during nominal flight.

Fregat cannot talk to Luch in its current iteration and Russian based launches do not employ ESA/Arianespace ground stations for tracking

[DatUser14]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

Well, not impossible when looking at the flight path

Thanks, you have a source of the flight path/trajectory ?

this, from this article: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/meteor-m2-1.html

[Jester]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

Well, not impossible when looking at the flight path

Thanks, you have a source of the flight path/trajectory ?

this, from this article: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/meteor-m2-1.html

No, its not, Input has a different source

[input~2]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

Well, not impossible when looking at the flight path

Thanks, you have a source of the flight path/trajectory ?

I put together the flight path of Soyuz-2-1-b from the NOTAMs I reproduced earlier in this thread (2nd stage and 3rd stage)

[Jester]

Interfax: A human error could have led to a wrong orientation of the Fregat upper stage during its 1st engine firing, sending the whole stack into the Atlantic:

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/935465312178331648

Is it possible to determine roughly where this could have re-entered? 

I only ask because I've been puzzling all morning over a bright flash I saw in the sky at about 07:30-8am ish here in the North East of Scotland.  I had assumed it was a meteor, but then I read  this.  Could the Fregat burn have been so far off as to cause a re-entry over the UK?    I'm guessing not, but the timings look eerily close!

Well, not impossible when looking at the flight path

Thanks, you have a source of the flight path/trajectory ?

I put together the flight path of Soyuz-2-1-b from the NOTAMs I reproduced earlier in this thread (2nd stage and 3rd stage)

Thanks

[B777 pilot]

Amazing sighting this morning!! I'm an airline pilot, and was flying over the North Atlantic this morning at N50W035 when this bright fireball came out of the direction from Iceland. It passed right overhead us at around N50W035, around 06.00UTC. Unfortunately my iPad didn't take a proper picture, but see the attachments. There were many many pilots who saw it, as we all started talking about it on the air-to-air frequency. An amazing sight. It broke up into thousands of burning pieces.

There's one pilot who took a video, and said he will upload it to YouTube in the next hours. I'm searching...