Author Topic: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – May 15, 2014  (Read 106602 times)

Offline Stan Black

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Launch Coverage Sponsored by ATK:



Payload: Ekspress-AM4R
Rocket: Proton-M 8К82КМ with improved energy-mass characteristics (phase 3)
Upper stage: Briz-M 14С43 with improved energy-mass characteristics (phase 3)
Payload adapter system: 1194VX
Fairing: 14С75.15 with improved energy-mass characteristics (phase 3)
Launch site: Baikonur 8П882К-4Ф (ПУ № 39)


State Centre for Space Research and Production, in the name of M.V. Khrunichev
Государственный космический научно-производственный центр имени М.В. Хруничева

Proton-M

Quote
Ракета-носитель «Протон-М» (8К82КМ-0000-0ТУ-У)
1 436 500 000 Russian ruble
Order placed: 25th April 2012
Contractual period: April 2012 to 25th November 2014
Delivery: November 2014
[source] [source]

Briz-M

Quote
Изготовление и поставка разгонного блока (РБ) «Бриз-М» для запуска КА «Экспресс-АМ4R» (14С43-0000-0ТУ)
438 456 500 Russian ruble
Order placed: 31st January 2013
Contractual period: January 2013 to 25th November 2014
Delivery: November 2014
[source] [source]

Fairing 14С75 and payload adapter

Quote
Изготовление и поставка головного обтекателя типа 14С75 с переходной системой для запуска КА «Экспресс-АМ4R»
163 344 000 Russian ruble
Order placed: 18th December 2013
[source]

Launch vehicle support

206 000 000 Russian ruble
Delivery: from the 1st quarter of 2013 to the 2nd quarter of 2014, to support a launch in the 1st quarter of 2014
[source] [source]

Proton-M and 14С75 delivery to launch site

Подготовка к транспортировке, транспортировка РН «Протон-М» с ГО 14С75.15 для запуска КА «Экспресс-АМ4R» и возврат порожнего транспорта[/quote]
27 122 100 Russian ruble
Order placed: 30th January 2014
Contractual period: up to 25th December 2014
Delivered: 28th February 2014
[source] [source] [source]

Briz-M delivery to launch site

Quote
Авиаперевозка РБ «Бриз-М» и транспортно-экспедиторские работы по отправке разгонного блока «Бриз-М» для запуска КА «Экспресс-АМ4R»
17 102 000 Russian ruble
Order placed: 30th January 2014
Contractual period: up to 25th December 2014
Delivered: 10th March 2014
[source] [source] [source]


RUAG Space AB (Sweden)

1194VX


Centre for Operation of Land-Based Space Infrastructure (TsENKI)
Центр эксплуатации объектов наземной космической инфраструктуры (ЦЭНКИ)

Launch campaign

Quote
Подготовка и запуски РН «Протон-М» и РБ «Бриз-М» с КА «Экспресс-АМ7» и с КА «Экспресс-АМ4R». Проведение послепусковых работ.
737 000 000 Russian ruble
Order placed: 25th November 2013
Contractual period: November 2014
[source]


European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS) Astrium

Ekspress-AM4R

Mass: 5,741 kilogrammes
Platform: Eurostar E3000
Service life: 15 years
Transponders: 30 C-band, 28 Ku-band, 2 Ka-band, 3 L-band
[source]



« Last Edit: 16 May 2014 09:38:01 AM by input~2 »
 
« Last Edit: 12/08/2014 07:59 pm by Stan Black »

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M
« Reply #1 on: 12/27/2013 03:27 pm »
Briz-M delivery to launch site

Quote
Транспортировка трех РБ «Бриз-М» для запуска КА «Экспресс-АТ1, -АТ2», «Экспресс-АМ4R» и «Экспресс-АМ6»
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=8208119

Proton-M and 14С75 delivery to launch site

Quote
Транспортировка четырех РН «Протон-М» с ГО для запуска КА «Экспресс-АТ1, -АТ2», «Экспресс-АМ4R», «Экспресс-АМ6» и «Луч-5В»
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=8208871

1st post updated.

« Last Edit: 02/01/2014 08:09 am by Stan Black »

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M – 2014-Q2
« Reply #2 on: 01/01/2014 04:10 pm »
Quote
“Nominal Mission Lifetime” means, with respect to the Express AM4R Satellite, (based upon a Proton phase 4 performance) a period of 15 (fifteen) years after completion of the Final or Provisional Acceptance of the Satellite in orbit (whichever occurs first).
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/common-info.html?purchaseId=445782&&purchaseMethodType=is

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Offline Satori

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M – 2014-Q2
« Reply #4 on: 02/28/2014 12:35 pm »
8K82KM Proton-M (93545) arrived at Baikonur on February 28. After passing the required customs procedures the train with the launcher stages, fairing and additional equipment was transported to the assembly and testing building 92A-50.

http://www.roscosmos.ru/20272/ (In Russian)

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M – 2014-Q2
« Reply #5 on: 03/12/2014 01:09 pm »
Launch campaign

Quote
Подготовка и запуски РН «Протон-М» и РБ «Бриз-М» с КА «Экспресс-АМ7» и с КА «Экспресс-АМ4R». Проведение послепусковых работ.
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/contracts/info/common_info/show?contractInfoId=12211437

1st post updated.

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M – 2014-Q2
« Reply #6 on: 03/14/2014 02:40 am »
No signs of the satellite at Baikonur? It's only 3.5 weeks till the April 6 launch date.... (or is that going to slip?)
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Offline Stan Black

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M – 6th April 2014
« Reply #7 on: 03/14/2014 08:15 am »
Briz-M delivered Monday, 10th March 2014

http://www.khrunichev.ru/main.php?id=1&nid=3002

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Re: Ekspress-AM4R – Proton-M/Briz-M – 2014-Q2
« Reply #8 on: 03/17/2014 06:39 am »
No signs of the satellite at Baikonur? It's only 3.5 weeks till the April 6 launch date.... (or is that going to slip?)

Now scheduled to launch on May 16: http://www.interfax.ru/russia/365082 (also mentioned by Anatoly Zak)
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Offline Stan Black

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Re: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – 6th April 2014
« Reply #9 on: 03/29/2014 02:36 pm »
Noticed a similar tender for Ekspress-AM7? Looks like they are paying International Launch Services (ILS) to support this launch?

$931,200

http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/documents.html?purchaseId=931084&&purchaseMethodType=ep

There are four documents; these two appear relevant:-
Приказ_Закупка у ЕП
Exhibit 2_Express AM4R_рус расширенная версия

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – 6th April 2014
« Reply #10 on: 03/29/2014 03:32 pm »
Noticed a similar tender for Ekspress-AM7? Looks like they are paying International Launch Services (ILS) to support this launch?

$931,200

http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/documents.html?purchaseId=931084&&purchaseMethodType=ep

There are four documents; these two appear relevant:-
Приказ_Закупка у ЕП
Exhibit 2_Express AM4R_рус расширенная версия
is it due to planned dual use for both federal and commercial CIS organizations.

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Re: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – 16th May 2014
« Reply #11 on: 04/18/2014 08:32 am »
Express-AM4R has been delivered to Baikonur: http://www.khrunichev.ru/main.php?id=1&nid=3034

The delay of the launch from early April was apparently due to delays in the repair of pad 200/39's ground electrical umbilical unit 8U259, which if you remember caused one Proton rocket to lift off half-a-second early on its ultimately 30 seconds of looping flight last July from pad 81/24. This was also the reason the launch of Turksat 4A was moved to pad 81/24.
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Offline Stan Black

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Re: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – 16th May 2014
« Reply #12 on: 04/23/2014 08:04 pm »
Launch dates for the next four Protons
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_2014.html#04
Quote
April 23 UPDATE: April manifest status
By the end of April, four Proton missions had solid launch dates set for the second quarter of 2014:
Launch date Payload Customer
1 April 28, 08:25 Moscow Time KazSat-3/Luch-5V Kazakhstan/Roskosmos
2 May 16, 01:42 Moscow Time Ekspress-AM4R RSCC
3 June 5 Olymp (Luch) Russian Ministry of Defense
4 July 4 Ekspress-AM6 RSCC
 

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Re: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – 16th May 2014
« Reply #13 on: 05/05/2014 12:02 pm »
Ekspress-AM4R satellite was joined with the Briz-M upper stage.

http://www.federalspace.ru/20529/ (in Russian)

Offline siweifdu

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Re: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – 16th May 2014
« Reply #14 on: 05/06/2014 07:02 am »
Excuse me. I still got the old question. Is this the first Phase IV launch? Thanks~

Offline McDew

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Excuse me. I still got the old question. Is this the first Phase IV launch? Thanks~
No, first Proton Phase IV is not until mid 2015

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Rocket's final assembly completed. Rollout is scheduled early tomorrow.

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Jacques :-)

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And with gophers :D

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A few more images from Khrunichev http://www.khrunichev.ru/main.php?id=1&nid=3056

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I found a few photos of the satellite at Baikonur on Roscosmos' website;)
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Offline Lewis007

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Roll-out video from Roscosmos


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Long serial number of Proton-M is 5114877973.

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Krunichev published the information about this launch http://coopi.khrunichev.ru/main.php?id=685
« Last Edit: 05/14/2014 11:50 am by Satori »

Offline owais.usmani

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Let's hope Briz-M behaves this time.....

Offline Chris Bergin

Moved for live coverage.
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web cam start from baikonor

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Sounds like the wind is blowing pretty hard...
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

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« Last Edit: 05/15/2014 08:06 pm by Satori »

Offline GraniteHound92

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Is there a link for the webcam?

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Service tower roll-back started...
« Last Edit: 05/15/2014 08:31 pm by Satori »

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« Last Edit: 05/15/2014 08:34 pm by Satori »

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« Last Edit: 05/15/2014 08:37 pm by Satori »

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T-1h

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T-50 minutes for launch... launch preparations are proceeding normally.

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T-45 minutes for launch...

According to the Proton mission planners guide, at this time the final countdown activities commence.

Propulsion system go signal is generated by the LV GN&C GLSTE. Countdown display system remote units are synchronized to the master CD clock.

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T-40 minutes for launch...

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At T-35 minutes... LV GN&C GLSTE arms the launch abort systems. Readiness green indicator light illuminates on the launch abort unit front panel. Two redundant displays on the launch abort unit are synchronized to the CD clock and start countdown. SC launch unit abort switch is active.

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T-30 minutes for launch...

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T-20 minutes... all looks good for launch...

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Offline Chris Bergin

Ok guys, let's try and get a nice launch shot for the article I'll put on as soon as I can afterwards :)
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T-10 minutes for launch!!!

Offline Chris Bergin

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T-5 minutes... LV GN&C GLSTE sends a T-300 sec command signal to the Breeze M GN&C GLSTE to synchronize the lift-off time.

Breeze M begins transfer to internal power.

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T-2 minutes... LV GN&C begins transfer to internal power. Breeze M completes transfer to internal power, sends “BREEZE M GO” signal to LV GN&C GLSTE.

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LAUNCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Offline Chris Bergin

LAUNCH!!
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1/2 stage sep

Offline Chris Bergin

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Offline SaxtonHale

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tried to catch something

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2nd stage separated, as are the fairings. Now flying on the 3rd stage.
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Nominal flight so far...

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Uh oh...something went wrong?  ???
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I think the commentator just said "An anomaly has occurred. End of coverage".

Offline Satori

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Uh oh...something went wrong?  ???

Looks like something went wrong...

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Apparently a failure on the third stage...

Offline Chris Bergin

Oh wow. During third stage?
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Offline Satori

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Oh wow. During third stage?

Yes, it was during the third stage...

Online Galactic Penguin SST

The commentator was reading out all the way till T+530 seconds (about 1 minute before 3rd stage shutdown and separation), then reported that there's an emergency. Maybe it's the 3rd stage, but it could also be other things that didn't show up initially (e.g. fairing problems)....  ???

Anyways who have more lives, Khrunichev or the black cat?  :o
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Offline Chris Bergin

Any clues on the NK forum?
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Any clues on the NK forum?

Just what the launch commentator said and some four-letter words. Interfax also confirming the failure.

Offline Chris Bergin

Copy that.

Poor ILS. They'll have to wait for the commission into this, again.
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Offline Chris Bergin

Can you hear the commentator calling the anomaly in that video, as the engine was still burning. Fairing failure?
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During the last five years, in each year at least one Proton rocket or its upper stage suffered a failure (6 in total).  And in all cases Russian payloads were involved.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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During the last five years, in each year at least one Proton rocket or its upper stage suffered a failure (6 in total).  And in all cases Russian payloads were involved.

Yes, makes you wonder if the quality control standards for the domestic launches differ from those for the ILS launches.

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Fall rocket "Proton" outside Kazakhstan

FALL rocket "Proton" with the most powerful Russian communications satellite occurred outside KAZAKHSTAN on the job 2ND OR 3RD STAGE - SOURCE
RIA Novosti

google translation)

 http://ria.ru/incidents/20140516/1007966351.html#ixzz31pHNm66x

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Can you hear the commentator calling the anomaly in that video, as the engine was still burning. Fairing failure?

The video posted here ends about 180 seconds into the flight during the 2nd stage burn. In the launch commentary there wasn't any indication of a problem until about 530 seconds into the mission when an anomaly was suddenly announced.

Burnout of the 2nd stage was visible during the live coverage, I couldn't see 3rd stage ignition, but that doesn't mean anything. Could have been too faint to see.

Gazeta.ru now quoting Khrunichev as saying the anomaly occurred during 1st or 2nd stage operation and a Roscosmos source as saying it was during 2nd or 3rd stage operation. Typical post-anomaly confusion.

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During the last five years, in each year at least one Proton rocket or its upper stage suffered a failure (6 in total).  And in all cases Russian payloads were involved.

Yes, makes you wonder if the quality control standards for the domestic launches differ from those for the ILS launches.

I had the same thought
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

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I wonder if the observers across Siberia was able to see what happened - in fact if the 3rd stage didn't fire at all or shut down early in its 4 minute burn then it may fell somewhere over Siberia-Russian Far East. And observing Proton launches from downrange is easy enough if the skies are clear.  ::)

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RIA Novosti now quoting both Roskosmos and Khrunichev sources as saying that it was indeed a third-stage failure, with the Roskosmos source adding it occurred 540 seconds into the flight.

Offline asmi

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RIA Novosti now quoting both Roskosmos and Khrunichev sources as saying that it was indeed a third-stage failure, with the Roskosmos source adding it occurred 540 seconds into the flight.
Yep:

"530 seconds - pitch, yaw, roll are nominal"
then pause, and then
"Off-nominal situation has been occured on RKN. The report ends." (RKN basically means "space-bound launch vehicle")
« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 12:32 am by asmi »

Offline asmi

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Hmm total flight time until OU sep is 552 seconds, which means that theoretically OU could make up for underperformance of the third stage.

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On start-up rocket "Proton-M"
 
05.16.2014 3:47
 
Today, May 16, at 1:00 42 min. MSK from Baikonur launch vehicle "Proton-M" with the upper stage "Briz-M" spacecraft and communication "Express AM4R."
 
During the launch, at the stage of the third stage of the launch vehicle is an emergency situation has arisen and no spacecraft was launched into orbit.
 
Currently, representatives of the State Commission analyzed telemetry data and find out the cause of the abnormality.

http://www.roscosmos.ru/20580/
Jacques :-)

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Everyone in this industry has bad days.

People (especially those in leadership) should resist the temptation to say something they'll regret later.

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OT, but I couldn't resist.  8)


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Hmm total flight time until OU sep is 552 seconds

582.

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It seems this LV has much trouble with the 3rd stage.  I believe you can actually see the stage explode at 5:28-:5:32 in that video...

Offline owais.usmani

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During the last five years, in each year at least one Proton rocket or its upper stage suffered a failure (6 in total).  And in all cases Russian payloads were involved.

Yes, makes you wonder if the quality control standards for the domestic launches differ from those for the ILS launches.

Why wonder? of-course they are different  ::)

RSCC should just drop the AM4 number. Its cursed!

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Rocket Crashes After High-Tech Satellite Launch, Russians Say

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/rocket-crashes-after-high-tech-satellite-launch-russians-say-n106896

Quote
"Contact with the carrier rocket was lost in the 540th second after liftoff," Itar-Tass quoted an official with the Russian space agency as saying. "It is known that the nose cone did not separate from the rocket."
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

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It seems this LV has much trouble with the 3rd stage.  I believe you can actually see the stage explode at 5:28-:5:32 in that video...

Nope, that's just the camera losing focus. The accident was at the T+9 minutes mark, right at the end of that video.

To put things into perspective, the last Proton launch failures linked with the 3rd stage were in August 1990 and May 1993 (foreign object in engine oxidizer feed line;  propellants contamination). The last time the RD-0210 series of rocket engines, which are used commonly across the Proton's 2nd and 3rd stages with only slight differences, had failed was during the twin Proton failures in July and October 1999 (*), both caused by foreign particles in the 2nd stage engines' gas turbine pump.

(*) Ironically those failures at that time caused NASA et al. worrying about whether the Zvezda module of the ISS could be launched successfully and lead to contingency preparations of making use of the Interim Control Module (ICM), one subject of recent interest...  ::)
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Rocket Crashes After High-Tech Satellite Launch, Russians Say

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/rocket-crashes-after-high-tech-satellite-launch-russians-say-n106896

Quote
"Contact with the carrier rocket was lost in the 540th second after liftoff," Itar-Tass quoted an official with the Russian space agency as saying. "It is known that the nose cone did not separate from the rocket."

Does that translate into a PLF separation failure?

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Chinese news websites are reporting that multiple fireballs are seen and objects have been found falling out of the sky in northern Heilongjiang province (*) at around 6 am LT - consistent with the objects being linked with this launch. One of the objects found is a spherical tank with sawtooth-shaped dents on it.

(*) The tank was found near the town of Shuangyang of Yi'an county, near the city of Qiqihar (47.55 N, 125.6 E). Similar objects were found in nearby Baiquan county.

Sources:
http://news.qq.com/a/20140516/029450.htm
http://news.sohu.com/20140516/n399656761.shtml
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the last Proton launch failures linked with the 3rd stage were in August 1990 and May 1993 (foreign object in engine oxidizer feed line;  propellants contamination).

May 1993 launch failure was with second stage.
Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space

Online Galactic Penguin SST

BTW Roscosmos officially reported that the accident occurred at an altitude of 160 km over China and at a speed of 7 km/s - still a few hundred m/s short of reaching LEO. All objects burned up in the atmosphere over the Pacific.

ITAR-TASS quotes Roscosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko that there may have been a pressure drop in one of the third-stage engine's vernier engines. He said while this may not be correct it is relatively clear that the 3rd stage propulsion system is to blame.

« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 07:31 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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BTW Roscosmos officially reported that the accident occurred at an altitude of 160 km over China and at a speed of 7 km/s - still a few hundred m/s short of reaching LEO. All objects burned up in the atmosphere over the Pacific.

Over China?

Any idea how that could happen? I thought they always launched on azimuths to pass north of China (that's why ISS is in a 51 degree inclination orbit; that's the lowest they can reach out of Baikonur, even though Baikonur is at 45N, due to avoiding overflying China.) So, unless I'm missing something here, this looks like a guidance failure in order for it to be that much off its nominal ground track? 

Online Galactic Penguin SST

In other news, Mr. Rogozin has woken up......  ::)

Quote
"The only way to deal with the accident - consistent implementation of decisions already taken on the reform of aerospace industry"

The spherical tank with sawtooth skirt seen above could be the fuel tank from the satellite. Whoops, ITAR-restricted parts has landed in China.....  ::)
« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 08:25 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Fly something enough times and, eventually, one of the vehicles will have something fail. It doesn't have to be anything other than the only one of dozens of otherwise-identical units that had an invisible flaw or where just the right vibration frequency cumulative over the entire test and flight history caused a component with some metalurgical or other fault to fail.

Tough for Roscosmos but it is in their organisational nature to brush themselves off and get back on their feet as quickly as they can. I don't expect a long Proton-M stand-down as a result of this failure.
« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 10:15 am by Ben the Space Brit »
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According to Ostapenko, the 3rd stage engine failed at T+545 seconds (T+9:05), but there was already problems before that - 20 seconds before, one of the 4 vernier engines had problems already according to telemetry. (Maybe the main engine was shut down due to the verniers going out of control? Note that the verniers share the same turbopumps with the main engine)

The accident investigation commission will be lead by TsNIIMash's deputy director Alexander Danyluk.
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Offline input~2

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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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In other news, Mr. Rogozin has woken up......  ::)

Quote
"The only way to deal with the accident - consistent implementation of decisions already taken on the reform of aerospace industry"

This implies a presumption that he's thinking this will turn out to be a quality control failure like the spectacular earlier launch failure of a Proton.

In other news, The spherical tank with sawtooth skirt seen above could be the fuel tank from the satellite. Whoops, ITAR-restricted parts has landed in China.....  ::)

Interesting that it landed in China. The news I've read so far is that the vehicle, if intact, should have been in a ballistic trajectory into the mid-Pacific. The fact that bits of the payload have fallen in China strongly suggest an 'unplanned explosive disassembly' of the LV, the BRIZ propulsion unit and the payload.
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TASS  0724 gmt

"... the wreckage did not reach the earth and no damage to any third parties has been caused, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported, quoting the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos), Oleg Ostapenko. 'We are getting confirmation of reports that the carrier rocket, the booster and the satellite all burnt in the dense layers of the atmosphere. That happened above Chinese territory. Given the altitude of the orbit where it happened, one can confidently say that nothing has reached the Earth,' Ostapenko said. "

Offline MP99

BTW Roscosmos officially reported that the accident occurred at an altitude of 160 km over China and at a speed of 7 km/s - still a few hundred m/s short of reaching LEO. All objects burned up in the atmosphere over the Pacific.

Over China?

Any idea how that could happen? I thought they always launched on azimuths to pass north of China (that's why ISS is in a 51 degree inclination orbit; that's the lowest they can reach out of Baikonur, even though Baikonur is at 45N, due to avoiding overflying China.) So, unless I'm missing something here, this looks like a guidance failure in order for it to be that much off its nominal ground track?

Did not know that. Interesting, thanks.

Cheers, Martin

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Interesting that it landed in China. The news I've read so far is that the vehicle, if intact, should have been in a ballistic trajectory into the mid-Pacific. The fact that bits of the payload have fallen in China strongly suggest an 'unplanned explosive disassembly' of the LV, the BRIZ propulsion unit and the payload.
Incorrect understanding. If successful, third stage drop zone would be WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 2515N/16000E 2600N/16045E 2330N/16335E 2245N/16248E BACK TO THE POINT OF ORIGIN. With premature stage shutdown, the crash point would be closer -- depending on exact T+xxx sec it woud be Japan, the Japanese Sea, Russian Primorskiy Kray or North-East China. With shutdown 37 seconds early (545 vs. 582) it occured to be in China.
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Chris Bergin

TASS  0724 gmt

"... the wreckage did not reach the earth and no damage to any third parties has been caused, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported, quoting the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos), Oleg Ostapenko. 'We are getting confirmation of reports that the carrier rocket, the booster and the satellite all burnt in the dense layers of the atmosphere. That happened above Chinese territory. Given the altitude of the orbit where it happened, one can confidently say that nothing has reached the Earth,' Ostapenko said. "


Has he not seen the pictures of debris on the ground in China?
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Offline input~2

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Another information on the re-entry zone of the 3rd stage if successful via navigational warning
NORTH PACIFIC.
ROCKETS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2130Z TO 2300Z
DAILY 15 THRU 18 MAY WITHIN
216 MILES OF 24-23N 161-46E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 190001Z MAY 14.//

Area shown below with Baikonur and tank recovery site

Offline input~2

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For the records, credits go to 9ifly forum for first tank recovery and identification posts (resp. Lsquirrel and cmj9808)

Online Galactic Penguin SST


Interesting that it landed in China. The news I've read so far is that the vehicle, if intact, should have been in a ballistic trajectory into the mid-Pacific. The fact that bits of the payload have fallen in China strongly suggest an 'unplanned explosive disassembly' of the LV, the BRIZ propulsion unit and the payload.
Incorrect understanding. If successful, third stage drop zone would be WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 2515N/16000E 2600N/16045E 2330N/16335E 2245N/16248E BACK TO THE POINT OF ORIGIN. With premature stage shutdown, the crash point would be closer -- depending on exact T+xxx sec it woud be Japan, the Japanese Sea, Russian Primorskiy Kray or North-East China. With shutdown 37 seconds early (545 vs. 582) it occured to be in China.

This .kml output from a rough simulation of this launch using the Orbiter spaceflight simulator should give you the rough idea of the locations of the flight events.
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This .kml output from a rough simulation of this launch using the Orbiter spaceflight simulator should give you the rough idea of the locations of the flight events

The launch was from pad 39, not 24.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

This .kml output from a rough simulation of this launch using the Orbiter spaceflight simulator should give you the rough idea of the locations of the flight events

The launch was from pad 39, not 24.

Yeah, hence the word "rough simulation"  ;) (I don't have time to change the scenarios) - also the maximum altitude I reached was only 110 km. Still it should give a very rough idea of the trajectory.
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Rocket Crashes After High-Tech Satellite Launch, Russians Say

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/rocket-crashes-after-high-tech-satellite-launch-russians-say-n106896

Quote
"Contact with the carrier rocket was lost in the 540th second after liftoff," Itar-Tass quoted an official with the Russian space agency as saying. "It is known that the nose cone did not separate from the rocket."

Does that translate into a PLF separation failure?


I was fooled by this earlier but I imagine (without seeing the original Russian source) that what they mean is that the Orbital Block
with the payload and Briz-M did not separate from the third stage. I conclude the 'GO' (payload fairing) must have separated on time,
based on other statements that the trajectory was normal up to the problems with the stage 3 verniers.


Edit: yes, clearly the source is http://itar-tass.com/proisshestviya/1190575
saying "Головной блок в составе разгонного блока "Бриз-М" и космического аппарата "Экспресс-АМ4Р" не успел отделиться от ракеты" -  the nose section consisting of the Briz-M unit and the Ekspress-AM4R satelltie were not able to separate from the rocket.

Understandable confusion between  Golovnoy Blok (payload section) and Golovnoy obektatel' (payload fairing)
« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 03:25 pm by jcm »
-----------------------------

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BTW Roscosmos officially reported that the accident occurred at an altitude of 160 km over China and at a speed of 7 km/s - still a few hundred m/s short of reaching LEO. All objects burned up in the atmosphere over the Pacific.
 

Worth noting for those trying to recreate this, he didn't say  7.0 km/s, he said 7 km/s, which could mean anything between 6.6 km/s and 7.4 km/s.  If anyone has sources who can provide a more accurate cutoff velocity, that would be very helpful.
-----------------------------

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Here is the NOTAM for Proton second stage and fairing debris
P3041/14 -  RESTRICTED AREA ACT: UNR1238. SFC - UNL, 15-17 2140-2220, 15 MAY 21:40 2014 UNTIL 17 MAY 22:20 2014. CREATED: 08 MAY 11:22 2014

UNR1238 is centered around 51°16'N 87°11'E
(see also http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31080.msg1038983#msg1038983)

Edit: and here is the NOTAM for Proton 1st stage debris
K0267/14NOTAMN
Q) UACC/QARLC/IV/NBO/E /000/999/4726N06643E056
A) UACC B) 1405152140 C) 1405152220
E) ATS ROUTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
1.A113 TIROK-GISIR FM 25KM TO 65KM
2.B822 BETIK-LUGER FM 95KM TO 140KM
SFC/UNL

« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 04:19 pm by input~2 »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

BTW Roscosmos officially reported that the accident occurred at an altitude of 160 km over China and at a speed of 7 km/s - still a few hundred m/s short of reaching LEO. All objects burned up in the atmosphere over the Pacific.
 

Worth noting for those trying to recreate this, he didn't say  7.0 km/s, he said 7 km/s, which could mean anything between 6.6 km/s and 7.4 km/s.  If anyone has sources who can provide a more accurate cutoff velocity, that would be very helpful.

In my simulation that created the KML file it was around 6.8 km/s. My guess is that the errors would be around +- 100 m/s.
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Offline simonbp

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Someone email Elon. A tweet about trampolines would be epic about now.

What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...
« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 04:17 pm by simonbp »

Offline Stan Black

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the last Proton launch failures linked with the 3rd stage were in August 1990 and May 1993 (foreign object in engine oxidizer feed line;  propellants contamination).

May 1993 launch failure was with second stage.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17568.msg581505#msg581505

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FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – May 15, 2014
« Reply #126 on: 05/16/2014 04:40 pm »
Someone email Elon. A tweet about trampolines would be epic about now.

What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...
They have consistently done 91% of failure rate. Something slightly above 10% should be fair. If the satellite was 250M, and the launcher 80M, insurance should have been around 34M or so. That's not counting revenue insurance that's another policy entirely.
« Last Edit: 05/16/2014 04:41 pm by baldusi »

Offline Nomadd

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Someone email Elon. A tweet about trampolines would be epic about now.

What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...
They have consistently done 91% of failure rate. Something slightly above 10% should be fair. If the satellite was 250M, and the launcher 80M, insurance should have been around 34M or so. That's not counting revenue insurance that's another policy entirely.
Insurance companies aren't in business to break even on policies. Their revenue is generally about twice what they expect to pay out in claims.
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Someone email Elon. A tweet about trampolines would be epic about now.

What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...
18.5% according to http://rscc.ru/company/opentenders/1313.html
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Someone email Elon. A tweet about trampolines would be epic about now.

What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...
18.5% according to http://rscc.ru/company/opentenders/1313.html

So, if we take baldusi's non-insurance launch cost of $350+$80=$430 million, that's $80 million in insurance. In other words, the insurance costs just as much as the rocket. Ouch.

Offline LouScheffer

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What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...
So THAT explains why the US does not launch advanced imaging satellites on Protons.  Say the satellite costs $2.5 billion.  The US self-insures, and does not need a profit, so the insurance would be about $250 million each.  Add in the Proton and you get $330 million per launch.  That's a crazy amount  to spend that much to launch a single satellite.  And what if you need to launch more than one, say 36 of them over the next few years?  That would be almost $12 billion dollars!  Who in their right mind would spend that kind of money??

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Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – May 15, 2014
« Reply #131 on: 05/16/2014 09:55 pm »
That's not counting revenue insurance that's another policy entirely.

Given that launch/satellite costs only account for a fraction of total revenue in the satellite industry, revenue insurance could be huge. I wonder what operators pay for such insurance, if they can insure at all.

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Video from Altai of second stage burnup and other objects -- might provide insight into failure.




Offline Chris Bergin

Wow. That's amazing Jim!
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Offline Avron

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Video from Altai of second stage burnup and other objects -- might provide insight into failure.

Alas, the M/Briz-m .. etc have already separated and are independent "flying" objects at the start of the video.

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What a neat video!  Thanks for posting JimO.
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What a neat video!  Thanks for posting JimO.

You guys realized that this video above was originally posted on April 24th, 2010 !!    See in You Tube and catch the link posted to a previous post. 

 
« Last Edit: 05/17/2014 02:09 am by catdlr »
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Good catch -- reposts are always a hazard.

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Good catch -- reposts are always a hazard.

That launch (successful) corresponds to this link:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=20922.msg581744#msg581744
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Offline owais.usmani

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Someone email Elon. A tweet about trampolines would be epic about now.

What's the insurance rate for a Proton launch these days? I would not be surprised if it exceeds the cost of the launch vehicle...

7.8 billion rubles for Ekspress AM4R is what I read.

One thing is certain; ILS is slowly and surely heading towards bankruptcy.

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The competition looking to take advantage... How realistic would a change in launcher be this close to launch?

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/467183292693741568

"Proton failure throws new light on Sea Launch offer of available rocket in early 2015. Commercial interest hinges on May 26 Eutelsat launch."
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Some pics of the launch are available here:
http://www.tsenki.com/news/news_tsenki/?ELEMENT_ID=109968

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It seems this LV has much trouble with the 3rd stage.  I believe you can actually see the stage explode at 5:28-:5:32 in that video...

Nope, that's just the camera losing focus. The accident was at the T+9 minutes mark, right at the end of that video.

To put things into perspective, the last Proton launch failures linked with the 3rd stage were in August 1990 and May 1993 (foreign object in engine oxidizer feed line;  propellants contamination). The last time the RD-0210 series of rocket engines, which are used commonly across the Proton's 2nd and 3rd stages with only slight differences, had failed was during the twin Proton failures in July and October 1999 (*), both caused by foreign particles in the 2nd stage engines' gas turbine pump.

(*) Ironically those failures at that time caused NASA et al. worrying about whether the Zvezda module of the ISS could be launched successfully and lead to contingency preparations of making use of the Interim Control Module (ICM), one subject of recent interest...  ::)

According to the manufacturer KBKhA, in their annual report for 2005, there was an issue with RD-0214 during the flight of Proton-K №41010 in March 2005.

Offline edkyle99

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One thing is certain; ILS is slowly and surely heading towards bankruptcy.
This wasn't an ILS launch.  It has been almost two years since an ILS Proton launch failed.  ILS has had 17 consecutive successes since.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 05/17/2014 02:55 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Stan Black

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One thing is certain; ILS is slowly and surely heading towards bankruptcy.
This wasn't an ILS launch.  It has been almost two years since an ILS Proton launch failed.  ILS has had 17 consecutive successes since.

 - Ed Kyle

So what was the ILS involvement with this launch?

Offline owais.usmani

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One thing is certain; ILS is slowly and surely heading towards bankruptcy.
This wasn't an ILS launch.  It has been almost two years since an ILS Proton launch failed.  ILS has had 17 consecutive successes since.

 - Ed Kyle

I know it wasn't an ILS launch. My point is that ILS uses the same rocket, and such failures will make any new customer think twice before they sign new contracts with ILS. Also the fact that the insurance rate for Proton will only going to climb with such events as has been mentioned already.

ILS cannot continue profitable business with a rocket that fails 1-2 times every year on average.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2014 09:34 am by owais.usmani »

Offline edkyle99

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My point is that ILS uses the same rocket, and such failures will make any new customer think twice before they sign new contracts with ILS. Also the fact that the insurance rate for Proton will only going to climb with such events as has been mentioned already.

ILS cannot continue profitable business with a rocket that fails 1-2 times every year on average.
I'm not so sure.  Right now Eutelsat 3B is heading out to sea to launch on a rocket that has a 14% chance of failure, based on its record, quite a bit worse than Proton. 

Proton M/Briz M itself has a 91% success rate.  Not up to par with Ariane 5 or Atlas 5 (which hardly handles commercial sats), but better than Zenit and Falcon 9, the other primary bigsat commercial competitors.  Proton has been flying more than 10 times per year, even with the failures.  For the price, it must still be seen as a good deal.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 05/18/2014 03:19 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline baldusi

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I believe that one of the things that Proton does right, is flying 10 per year, even with failures. With Ariane 5 as schedule challenged as is, they can't really take all that extra payloads. For some reason Atlas V and H-2A have suddenly started to get drops of commercial launches. That must mean that the market does desire higher reliability than 86% (Zenit) and even 91% (Proton-M/Briz-M), but at Ariane 5 price.
I wonder if Krunishev haven't focused its best engineers on the Angara project and that's one of the reasons for Proton's unreliability. Angara 5 from Plesetsk can do almost 6tonnes to a 1,500m/s GTO. That might be an interesting offering on top of Proton.

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My point is that ILS uses the same rocket, and such failures will make any new customer think twice before they sign new contracts with ILS. Also the fact that the insurance rate for Proton will only going to climb with such events as has been mentioned already.

ILS cannot continue profitable business with a rocket that fails 1-2 times every year on average.
I'm not so sure.  Right now Eutelsat 3B is heading out to sea to launch on a rocket that has a 14% chance of failure, based on its record, quite a bit worse than Proton. 

Proton M/Briz M itself has a 91% success rate.  Not up to par with Ariane 5 or Atlas 5 (which hardly handles commercial sats), but better than Zenit and Falcon 9, the other primary bigsat commercial competitors.  Proton has been flying more than 10 times per year, even with the failures.  For the price, it must still be seen as a good deal.

 - Ed Kyle

short term it might look like a good deal......long term, those toxic fuels will be very, very expensive to someone.
« Last Edit: 05/19/2014 01:36 am by Prober »
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Offline LouScheffer

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Proton M/Briz M itself has a 91% success rate.  [...] better than [...] Falcon 9.

This is a silly statement to make in such a definitive manner.  We have very little idea what the success rate of the Falcon  9 is since there have been so few launches.  Both statements, Proton > Falcon and Proton < Falcon, fit all empirical evidence so far.  So neither can be stated to be true, in any scientifically valid sense.

More interesting would be the perceived risk by people who put their money on the line, i.e insurers.  In other words, for the same satellite, what are the insurance costs?  I'm pretty sure Atlas,Ariane < Proton < Zenit.  I remember SES-8 (the first Falcon-9 comsat) saying they had insurance, but not how much it cost.

Offline edkyle99

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Proton M/Briz M itself has a 91% success rate.  [...] better than [...] Falcon 9.

This is a silly statement to make in such a definitive manner.  We have very little idea what the success rate of the Falcon  9 is since there have been so few launches. 
That is why I view it as a rocket that has not yet proved itself to be at least as reliable as Proton M/Briz M.  The latter rocket has 68 successes in 74 attempts, while Falcon 9 v1.1 is 4 for 4.  If Falcon 9 v1.1 manages to go 9 for 9 it will essentially tie the Proton in predicted reliability, proving itself at least as reliable.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 05/19/2014 02:03 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline owais.usmani

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Ekspress-AM6 to be reallocated to Ekspress-AM4R position?

http://minsvyaz.ru/ru/news/index.php?id_4=44555

Online Galactic Penguin SST

According to Andrey (anik), the turbopump assembly (of the RD-0214 vernier engines? Or was it the RD-0213 main engine?) was gradually dropping in outlet pressure while the inlet pressure remains steady. Maybe the turbopump bearings or turbines somehow got crushed?  ::)
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Speaking about the 3rd stage propulsion assembly, check out its (as well as Proton's 2nd stage engine, which is of same origins) details here: http://www.lpre.de/kbkha/RD-0203/index.htm
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Falcon failure rates, except mentioned in passing, aren't relevant to this thread. ILS launch history only tangentially relevant. Please ask yourself if you're on topic before you post. Thanks.
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According to Andrey (anik), the turbopump assembly (of the RD-0214 vernier engines? Or was it the RD-0213 main engine?) was gradually dropping in outlet pressure while the inlet pressure remains steady. Maybe the turbopump bearings or turbines somehow got crushed?  ::)

Confirmed as the vernier engine - investigation committee chairman Alexander Danyluk reported today that the outlet pressure of the gas generator turbine of the vernier engine (single pump, four chambers) has dropped "by 15 times". He also excluded probable errors in the control system as a probable cause, saying that it worked nominally.

Ouch. Hope it's not the "engine pipelines clogged by foreign particles" demon again........  ::)
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According to Andrey at NK, the preliminary investigation shows that the most probable cause of the accident is a pipeline rupture between the gas generator and the turbopump of the 3rd stage vernier engine (whether it was the fuel side or the oxidizer side is still being investigated) - probably due to poorly welding seams in the pipelines. The rocket computers declared an emergency state at T+541 seconds after the stage veered off course by more than 20 degrees (in which axis is not known yet).

According to official sources, other plausible reasons under scrutiny includes destruction of the turbopump bearing assemblies, contaminants entering the fuel flow regulator or the fuel filters/pipelines clogged by foreign objects in the 3rd stage vernier engine.

Below is the flow scheme of the RD-0214 vernier engine (from http://www.lpre.de/kbkha/RD-0203/index.htm) - one could see the possible leakage positions at 2-4 and 15-12.

My thoughts: Oh dear, not another "elementary level" QC problem again - it seems that the Russian aerospace industry is lagging behind in terms of learning the magic of QC in spacecraft & rocket assembly/operations. Multiple companies need to re-formulate the way quality oversight and verifications are done right now, as the Americans, Europeans, Chinese etc. learnt the hard way in the past....... (more on that in a later post)  ::)
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Offline baldusi

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I don't think is so much the whole Russians as Khrunichev. They have been failing at QC miserably. So much that they lost the MEMs contract to RSC Energia. They are failing so bad that even Atlas V and H-IIA are getting commercial demand!

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Well it looks like the alternative theories have been dumped as it seems that the investigation committee did found a defect in the pipelines welding.....

The official report is due by early June, and it seems that authorization is about to come to restart preparations for the next Proton launches.  ::)
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Hmm today the investigation committee reports that the failure "most likely" involves the destruction of the bearing mounting on the 3rd stage vernier engine's turbopump.

I wonder if that could be caused by a fuel line depressurization, or the two are actually in conflict with each other?  ::)
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If that bearing is cooled or lubricated with fuel, it could be.
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It seems this comes up once every time Proton cartwheels

http://rt.com/news/162228-proton-rocket-failure-sabotage/
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It is just good old Soviet tradition. Nothing ever is their own fault.
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Now they are blaming the destruction of the bearing bracket..... http://russian.rt.com/article/34227
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Now they are blaming the destruction of the bearing bracket..... http://russian.rt.com/article/34227

Well this was officially announced today as the failure reason by the investigation committee today: http://ria.ru/technology/20140611/1011586996.html

...but interestingly enough one active member at Novosti Kosmonavtiki says that usually such "conclusions" actually does not follow the real reason of the failures, citing many previous Proton and Soyuz failures in the past and even that of Soyuz-1 (!). Someone might try to comment on this.....  ::)
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Offline docmordrid

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Now it sounds like just the bearing.

http://en.itar-tass.com/non-political/735724

Quote
MOSCOW, June 11. /ITAR-TASS/. The May 16 crash of the Proton space rocket was due to a failed bearing in the steering engine’s turbo pump, the chief of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, Oleg Ostapenko, told ITAR-TASS.
>
DM

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...but interestingly enough one active member at Novosti Kosmonavtiki says that usually such "conclusions" actually does not follow the real reason of the failures, citing many previous Proton and Soyuz failures in the past and even that of Soyuz-1 (!). Someone might try to comment on this.....  ::)

Years later the root cause was re-established as spontaneous decomposition of the HTP.

now this has to be an interesting story.
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Russian Industry Official Says Proton Should Return to Flight in September.

Quote
Yuri Prokhorov, director-general of RSCC, whose fleet growth has been hampered by multiple Proton and in-orbit satellite failures in the past five years, said he remains confident that Proton will launch three RSCC satellites on three separate missions before the end of the year.

In a June 18 interview here, Prokhorov said Moscow-based RSCC has been told that Proton would return to flight in September with the launch of a Russian government Luch data-relay satellite. Launches for state-owned RSCC are also considered as part of Russia’s government launch program, even if RSCC is operated as a commercial company.

http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/40950russian-industry-official-says-proton-should-return-to-flight-in

Offline Chris Bergin

INTERNATIONAL LAUNCH SERVICES (ILS) FAILURE REVIEW OVERSIGHT BOARD (FROB) CONCLUDES EXPRESS AM4R PROTON LAUNCH ANOMALY INVESTIGATON
Successful Proton Return to Flight Mission for Russian Federal Government Launched on September 28

 

September 29, 2014- The ILS Failure Review Oversight Board (FROB) has concluded its work, after a detailed review of the findings, conclusions and identified corrective action plans from the Russian State Inter-agency Commission (IAC) and Khrunichev (KhSC) investigations into the probable cause of the May 16 failure of the Russian Federal Proton mission carrying the Express AM4R satellite.

 

The members of the FROB reviewed the initial assessment provided by the IAC along with the additional testing and investigations that the IAC directed to be performed by Khrunichev and their subsidiaries.  Based on the data presented, it was agreed by the FROB that the probable cause of the failure was the loss of structural integrity of a bolted interface that attaches the Stage III steering engine turbopump to the main engine structural frame.  The loss of integrity led to an excessive steering engine turbo pump vibration environment that damaged a fuel inlet line to the oxidizer gas generator, resulting in a fuel leak. The loss of fuel led to the premature shutdown of the turbopump and loss of stage control authority and ultimately loss of mission approximately 545 seconds into the flight.  Additionally, the FROB concurs that the identified corrective action plan will adequately address the identified probable cause and contributors to the failure.

 

“We thank all of the FROB participants—our customers, insurance underwriters, technical experts and all others--for their diligent work and generous time; their continued support is sincerely appreciated,” said ILS Chief Technical Officer and Vice President of Programs and Operations, John Palmé.

 

The successful Proton return to flight mission for the Russian Federal Government occurred on September 28, 2014; all of the required corrective actions were incorporated for this mission. The scheduling of the remainder of the ILS Proton manifest for 2014 is currently being determined.

 

About ILS and Khrunichev
ILS is a leader in providing launch services for global satellite operators and offers a complete array of services and support, from contract signing through mission management and on-orbit delivery.  ILS has exclusive rights to market the Proton vehicle to commercial satellite operators worldwide and is a U.S. company headquartered in Reston, VA., near Washington, D.C.  For more information, visit www.ilslaunch.com.

Khrunichev, which holds the majority interest in ILS, is one of the cornerstones of the Russian space industry. Khrunichev manufactures the Proton system and is developing the Angara launch system. The Proton launches from facilities at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, and has a heritage of more than 398 missions since 1965. Khrunichev includes, among its branches, a number of key manufacturers of launch vehicle and spacecraft components in Moscow and in other cities of the Russian Federation.  For more information, visit www.khrunichev.com.
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Note that the conclusions contradict with the "bearing failure" quoted by Roscosmos in June as being the ultimate cause.....

....but aligns with what was rumored several days after the launch.  ::)
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