Author Topic: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)  (Read 109434 times)

Offline woods170

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #220 on: 10/02/2013 05:35 pm »

Best case scenario:

Motor overperforms, accelerates SpaceShipTwo to Warp speed and ushers in a new era of interstellar travel.


Worst case scenario:

Motor failure triggers gravitational singularity and sucks up the whole solar system into a black hole.

Now that's more like it. :)

Offline parabolicarc

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #221 on: 10/03/2013 04:03 pm »
We've had this discussion before.

I once asked SNC about the SS2 motors (I believe it was on The Space Show) and got the closest thing to an actual statement that they've ever made. To paraphrase: our motors work just fine, thank you.

I asked Sierra Nevada's Mark Sirangelo if SS2's RM2 engine had ever been fired at full duration and if it was powerful enough to get the vehicle into space. He said yes to both questions. I asked him how long full duration was, he said it was proprietary and to go ask Virgin Galactic.

My sources have since confirmed that the engine has never been fired at full duration and is not powerful enough to get SS2 into space. At least not with a payload. These are reliable sources.

Offline parabolicarc

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #222 on: 10/03/2013 04:08 pm »
Best case scenario:
To date, SS2 has been flying with an interim motor that they know is under-powered and was designed as such for safety reasons during the atmospheric test phase.  The full-scale motor is already in production/testing but VG and SNC see no reason to give people outside the project access to proprietary/confidential data until they're good and ready.
Outcome:
SS2 flies eventually, perhaps even on schedule.

Worse-case scenario:
The motor, as-designed, does not do the job and cannot do the job because it just doesn't have the right performance.  VG claim SNC failed to deliver as per contract, SNC claim VG under-specified; At the very least, SS2's rear hull will need to be completely redesigned for a motor with the right performance and, at the very most, the whole vehicle will need to be completely redesigned from scratch to accommodate an up-sized Lynx or possibly a SpaceX Merlin-1c.
Outcome:
SS2 never flies; VG and SNC spend the next decade in civil litigation and VG probably goes bankrupt from a lack of visible assets; those who put up cash in advance for a ride gain only bitter experience about trusting long-time snake oil salesmen like Sir Richard Branson.

The best case scenario is not true. My sources are quite clear on that point.

Scaled and Virgin have been testing alternative hybrid engines using internal resources and outside companies. One of those outsiders is Whittinghill Aerospace. I've seen two of these tests live. I saw the aftermath of a third one -- a nitrous oxide/nylon system -- in May.

It is possible that a liquid system could be developed in less time than people are estimating and with few if any changes to SS2's design.  That remains to be seen.

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #223 on: 10/03/2013 05:11 pm »
How different is the Hybrid motor used in SS2 from the Hybrid motors used by Dreamchaser ?

I know SNC continues to test the motors on the ground, but none of these issues have come up, right ?

Online Chris Bergin

Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #224 on: 10/03/2013 06:19 pm »
And so it begins. Reality TV show deal for Branson.

"Space Race"....



NBC ANNOUNCES EXCLUSIVE SERIES WITH SIR RICHARD BRANSON'S VIRGIN GALACTIC AND MARK BURNETT'S ONE THREE MEDIA
BURNETT'S GROUNDBREAKING ADVENTURE COMPETITION 'SPACE RACE' TO GIVE THE WINNING EVERYDAY PERSON A TICKET TO SPACE 

UNIVERSAL CITY, CA - Oct. 3, 2013 — NBC today announced an exclusive deal with Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, the world’s first commercial spaceline, and Mark Burnett’s One Three Media to create the spectacular unscripted series, "Space Race.” “Space Race” is a groundbreaking, elimination competition series where everyday people compete for the ultimate prize – a trip for the winner into space on Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo for a life-changing experience few people have ever enjoyed, all captured on camera. “Space Race” will have unprecedented access to Virgin Galactic’s home in the state-of-the-art Spaceport America in New Mexico, the departure point and training and preparation center for space flights.

“The scope of this endeavor is so staggering, that it took these two titans to even imagine it,” said Paul Telegdy, President of Alternative and Late Night Programming, NBC Entertainment.  “The term 'trip of a lifetime' has for once been delivered on!  This will be a remarkable experience for anyone who has looked at the night's sky and dared to dream of Space Flight.”

Sir Richard said, “Virgin Galactic’s mission is to democratize space, eventually making commercial space travel affordable and accessible to all. ‘Space Race’ allows us to extend this opportunity of a lifetime to as many people as possible right at the start of our commercial service – through direct experience and television viewing. All of us at Virgin Galactic and our partner aabar Investments are delighted to be collaborating with NBC and Mark, who is a true pioneer and creative force in television programming.”

"For the past ten years I have relentlessly pursued my dream of using a TV show to give an everyday person the chance to experience the black sky of space and look down upon mother Earth," said executive producer Mark Burnett.  "Last year I spent time in New Mexico at the state of the art facility and last week spent time in the Mojave desert with Sir Richard and his impressive team. We got to see the spaceship up close and hear of Sir Richard’s incredible vision of how Virgin Galactic is the future of private space travel.  I am thrilled to be part of a series that will give the everyday person a chance to see space and that NBC has come on board too so that viewers at home will have a first class seat."

One Three Media will be distributing 'Space Race' at the upcoming MIPCOM TV market in Cannes.

###

About NBC Entertainment

NBC Entertainment develops and schedules programming for the network’s primetime, late-night, and daytime schedules. NBC’s quality programs and balanced lineup have earned the network critical  acclaim, numerous awards and ratings success. NBC has earned more Emmy Awards than any network in television history. NBC’s roster of popular scripted series includes the critically acclaimed “Parks and Recreation” and “Community,” as well as new comedies “The Michael J. Fox Show,” “Sean Saves the World” and “About a Boy.” NBC’s drama slate is highlighted by the buzzworthy new series “The Blacklist,” “Ironside” and “Crisis,” veteran series “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” “Parenthood” and “Grimm,” and the acclaimed recent additions “Chicago Fire” and “Revolution.” Unscripted series for NBC include the vocal competition hit and 2013 Emmy winner “The Voice,” “The Biggest Loser” and the perennial #1 most-watched summer series, “America’s Got Talent.”

About ONE THREE MEDIA

In April of 2011, Mark Burnett and Hearst Corporation announced their new joint media and production venture, ONE THREE MEDIA, which creates television and web content. Five-time Emmy® Award  winner Mark Burnett has produced over 2,200 hours of television programming that regularly airs in over 70 countries worldwide. ONE THREE MEDIA’s current network series include Survivor (CBS), The Voice (NBC), The Celebrity Apprentice (NBC), Sing Off (NBC), Shark Tank (ABC), The Bible (HISTORY), and the upcoming Trust Me I'm A Game  Show Host (TBS).  ONE THREE MEDIA’s strength in award show franchises includes the MTV Movie Awards from 2007 to 2011, and the annual People’s Choice Awards since 2010, among others.

About Virgin Galactic

Owned by Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group and aabar Investments PJS, Virgin Galactic is on track to be the world’s first commercial spaceline. To date, the company has accepted nearly $80 million in deposits from approximately 640 individuals, which is approximately 10% more than the total number of people who have ever gone to space. The new spaceship (SpaceShipTwo, VSS Enterprise) and carrier craft (WhiteKnightTwo, VMS Eve) have both been developed for Virgin Galactic’s vehicle fleet by Mojave-based Scaled Composites. Founded by Burt Rutan, Scaled developed SpaceShipOne, which in 2004 claimed the $10 million Ansari X Prize as the world’s first privately developed manned spacecraft. Virgin Galactic’s new vehicles, which will be manufactured by The Spaceship Company in Mojave, Calif., share much of the same basic design, but are being built to carry six customers, or the equivalent scientific research payload, on suborbital space flights. The vehicles will allow an out-of-the-seat, zero-gravity experience with astounding views of the planet from the black sky of space for tourist astronauts and a unique microgravity platform for researchers. The VSS Enterprise and VMS Eve test flight program is well under way, leading to Virgin Galactic commercial operations, which will be based at Spaceport America in New Mexico.
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Offline dcporter

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #225 on: 10/03/2013 07:18 pm »
And so it begins.

This is how space tourism becomes a thing. Goes from something the insanely rich do to something you can win on a reality show to something you can win in a Pepsi can to something normal people save normal amounts of money for. (Hopefully.)

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #226 on: 10/03/2013 09:29 pm »
It will indeed be the "trip of a lifetime" ...that is, if VG can get their propulsion problems sorted out within the lifetime of the winners...

Mark Burnett may have jumped the shark on this one.

Offline Moe Grills

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #227 on: 10/04/2013 01:32 am »
    I'm not supposed to do this at work: post on this forum on my boss's time.
If I get fired, I get fired, but here goes....

   SS1 worked nicely, thank you very much, with nitrous oxide and rubber for propellant.
SS1 reached over 100 km three times with that propellant, as you should all know.
Remember?

Thus you would think it follows that SS2 should work as well with the same substances,
with a little tweaking and some adjustments.
OK! So issues have cropped up, and powered test flights may be more like 4-6 weeks apart
from now on.
And forget regularly scheduled routine SS2 spaceflights for paying passengers every two weeks in 2014 or 2015, until LOX/kerosene engines are installed.

  But we should see passengers take the SS2 up to 100 km+ next year, thinking of Sir Richard Branson, unless other problems crop up...and they can.

So be a little fricken patient, huh?

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #228 on: 10/06/2013 04:13 pm »
   SS1 worked nicely, thank you very much, with nitrous oxide and rubber for propellant.
SS1 reached over 100 km three times with that propellant, as you should all know.
Remember?

Probably irrelevant.  SS2 is much larger and a far more complex machine.  It weighs multiples of SS1 and it seems that the hybrid motor doesn't scale up very well.
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Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #229 on: 10/06/2013 06:35 pm »
A small note about change from a hybrid to liquid is a ~4% performance gain for ~ same total weight engine system and prop so that a slightly shallower trajectory can be used producing a longer "Hang Time". Other possibilities is a faster turnaround.

If Lynx is successful with their low/easy maintenance rocket engine then Virgin will have to follow.

Compitition isn't it grand. :)

Offline parabolicarc

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #230 on: 10/10/2013 05:21 pm »
A small note about change from a hybrid to liquid is a ~4% performance gain for ~ same total weight engine system and prop so that a slightly shallower trajectory can be used producing a longer "Hang Time". Other possibilities is a faster turnaround.

If Lynx is successful with their low/easy maintenance rocket engine then Virgin will have to follow.

Compitition isn't it grand. :)

I think when Lynx flies next year it will startle a lot of people at VG/TSC. The word around Mojave is that they just don't take XCOR seriously. At least rhetorically. It's a shame that Scaled and XCOR never got together. That's a long and complicated story that I can't really reveal here.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #231 on: 10/10/2013 05:26 pm »
Probably irrelevant.  SS2 is much larger and a far more complex machine.  It weighs multiples of SS1 and it seems that the hybrid motor doesn't scale up very well.

FWIW, Lockheed demonstrated a 250,000 lb thrust hybrid engine at Edwards some 20 years ago. I have no clue what happened to that technology.


Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #232 on: 10/10/2013 05:35 pm »
A small note about change from a hybrid to liquid is a ~4% performance gain for ~ same total weight engine system and prop so that a slightly shallower trajectory can be used producing a longer "Hang Time". Other possibilities is a faster turnaround.

If Lynx is successful with their low/easy maintenance rocket engine then Virgin will have to follow.

Compitition isn't it grand. :)

I think when Lynx flies next year it will startle a lot of people at VG/TSC. The word around Mojave is that they just don't take XCOR seriously. At least rhetorically. It's a shame that Scaled and XCOR never got together. That's a long and complicated story that I can't really reveal here.

XCOR is 3-4 minutes in space, how long is VG advertising ?


Offline parabolicarc

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #233 on: 10/11/2013 04:12 am »
A small note about change from a hybrid to liquid is a ~4% performance gain for ~ same total weight engine system and prop so that a slightly shallower trajectory can be used producing a longer "Hang Time". Other possibilities is a faster turnaround.

If Lynx is successful with their low/easy maintenance rocket engine then Virgin will have to follow.

Compitition isn't it grand. :)

I think when Lynx flies next year it will startle a lot of people at VG/TSC. The word around Mojave is that they just don't take XCOR seriously. At least rhetorically. It's a shame that Scaled and XCOR never got together. That's a long and complicated story that I can't really reveal here.

XCOR is 3-4 minutes in space, how long is VG advertising ?

I think it's about the same. Four minutes.

Offline woods170

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #234 on: 10/11/2013 01:55 pm »
I think when Lynx flies next year it will startle a lot of people at VG/TSC. The word around Mojave is that they just don't take XCOR seriously. At least rhetorically. It's a shame that Scaled and XCOR never got together. That's a long and complicated story that I can't really reveal here.

That should read as: IF Lynx flies next year...

Offline Danderman

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #235 on: 10/11/2013 04:21 pm »

XCOR is 3-4 minutes in space, how long is VG advertising ?



IIRC, Lynx does not attain 100 km altitude.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #236 on: 10/11/2013 04:46 pm »

XCOR is 3-4 minutes in space, how long is VG advertising ?



IIRC, Lynx does not attain 100 km altitude.


According to their site, it will: http://xcor.com/lynx/

But it is of course academic at this stage... Both SS2 and Lynx currently only reach 100km "on paper".

EDIT: I just saw this - http://xcor.com/lynxdevelopment/index.html - so you are correct for the first Lynx iteration. I guess the Lynx Mark II (aka production version) is the one that is meant to go to 100km.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2013 04:54 pm by Lars_J »

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #237 on: 10/11/2013 06:05 pm »
Lynx Mark I will go to 60 km, Mark II will got 100km .

Offline Kryten

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #238 on: 10/11/2013 08:32 pm »
Lynx Mark I will go to 60 km, Mark II will got 100km .
Will Lynx I flights be available, or is it solely intended as a prototype for Mark II?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (2)
« Reply #239 on: 10/11/2013 08:39 pm »
Lynx I is in the payload user's guide, so it basically will be available, if you need it and can pay. But Lynx I doesn't have terribly good microgravity quality, since it is, after all, just a prototype. But it would be good practice for a later, higher quality microgravity flight.
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