It would be unfortunate if this happened - but at least it would be interesting to see if PwR (now Aerojet) could put their money where their mouth is and actually build a domestic RD-180, something they have claimed to be able to do.
If they could produce it economically, that is of course a wholly different question.
This brings up something I asked on another thread.
If Aerojet owns Rocketdyne now, they own the rights to RD-180, now right? Import rights and license to manufacture in the US if they want?
Well, isn't Aerojet promoting their AJ-1E6? And wouldn't that be very similar to RD-180? A dual chamber engine right about 1Mlbs of thrust? A little more powerful than RD-180, but still similar, with similar weight and size?
So...something like this could actually be a pretty convienient excuse to do one of two things. Develop AJ-1E6 with perhaps an Atlas V kit (if such a thing is even possible...but I'm thinking a variant of the AJ-1E6 that would make it easier to mount to Atlas V) or just a change to Atlas V to mount it.
Or, ULA basically asks USAF/DoD if they can retire Atlas V, and make and support only Delta IV. That would allow ULA to retire two pads and focus on producing just one core and one upper stage. That upper stage would be the base of NASA DUUS potentially. IT could be upgraded with MB-60 if DUUS were to use it (I think that was the original idea behind MB-60).
And...most importantly, Delta IV already has the heavy version flying with two pads that can launch it.
If SpaceX can successfully bid and get some USAF/DoD contracts starting after 2015 when I believe they will accept competitive bids to Atlas and Delta, then USAF might consider F9 along with Delta IV as the redundant assures space access, and not subsidize ULA to support two different EELV's then. SpaceX has some things they have to do first like establish at vertical integration at least on the East Coast. West coast has limited government launches, so they might not be going after that there yet, as they built horizontal integration there, and demolished the Titan Mobile tower that might have actually been able to be modified for Falcon 9.
Now they'd have to build a brand new one. Haven't heard any plans for that.
But I think Delta IV and SLC-6 could handle all west coast government launches, so SpaceX might not be worried about that yet.
They would need something added to LC-40, or to take over LC-39A and have it there.
So, if RD-180 were to be banned for export to the US, it might have very little negative impact, and could actually make for a more streamlined US rocket fleet in either the retirement of Atlas V and ramp up of Delta IV production, or the development of the US built AJ-1E6 to replace RD-180.
Out of curiosity, is such an issue like this perhaps part of the reason USAF didn't want to standardize on the Atlas V over the last 10 years, when it seemed like the cheaper LV of the two?