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#580
by
PahTo
on 23 Jul, 2014 22:25
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Thanks woods170.
General Shelton goes on to explicitly express his own doubts about the reliability of deliveries of the RD-180 going forward. Beyond that, and given United Technologies and ULA have very little inspection of the engines once they arrive, I wonder if we shouldn't all be concerned about the reliability of RD-180s in manufacturing/manufactured since June of this year...
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#581
by
rayleighscatter
on 24 Jul, 2014 00:08
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I wonder if we shouldn't all be concerned about the reliability of RD-180s in manufacturing/manufactured since June of this year...
Why?
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#582
by
Prober
on 24 Jul, 2014 01:30
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Thanks woods170.
General Shelton goes on to explicitly express his own doubts about the reliability of deliveries of the RD-180 going forward. Beyond that, and given United Technologies and ULA have very little inspection of the engines once they arrive, I wonder if we shouldn't all be concerned about the reliability of RD-180s in manufacturing/manufactured since June of this year...
you can take that article and spin it a lot of ways.
Frankly, General Shelton looks like he is doing his job.
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#583
by
PahTo
on 24 Jul, 2014 14:52
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I wonder if we shouldn't all be concerned about the reliability of RD-180s in manufacturing/manufactured since June of this year...
Why?
Because there are significant tensions between the US and Russia now, and the engine components are fabricated in Russia and assembled in Russia. Foul play is not out of the question, even if not officially sanctioned by the chiefs.
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#584
by
rayleighscatter
on 24 Jul, 2014 20:44
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Foul play is not out of the question, even if not officially sanctioned by the chiefs.
Boy, I hope our astronauts are locking the door on the US side of the ISS each night...
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#585
by
PahTo
on 24 Jul, 2014 23:44
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Foul play is not out of the question, even if not officially sanctioned by the chiefs.
Boy, I hope our astronauts are locking the door on the US side of the ISS each night...
I'm usually not given to responding to blatantly conflationary posts, so I'll keep this brief.
There is no connection between RD-180/Atlas V and the ISS. Perhaps in 2017 IF CST-100 or DC fly on an Atlas V, but until then, no connection.
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#586
by
Kryten
on 25 Jul, 2014 00:02
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Energomash depend on the RD-180 to fund development efforts, as Rogozin admitted when explaining the lack of shutoff a few pages back. Sabotaging the engines would be economic suicide.
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#587
by
Space Ghost 1962
on 25 Jul, 2014 00:30
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Lots of nonsense here. We'll keep buying and they'll keep selling. Even given ... worse circumstances. Don't like where this has gone.
Because both get something out of it.
Upping Delta IV rate is neither cheap nor quick. Far from me to critique an AF General, but if this is pragmatism it is long ranged.
It would be out of national embarrassment that this would stop in the near time frame. We've been more embarrassed as a nation before in other circumstances and still dealt same. Need a bigger calamity for that to happen hate to say. But you don't feel any comfort with that, or the continuing escalation. They are guaranteed to go nuts 3 months into financial services sanctions. All bets are off then.
What doesn't close for me is the long term. Don't see the exit strategy, just convulsions. Nor do I like what all of this does for American launch services as a whole, and the nature of industry support becoming less stable - everyone is playing the cards close to the chest, tightening purse strings, and trying not to step out of line. Trip, and you could fall hard.
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#588
by
rcoppola
on 25 Jul, 2014 01:05
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I still have a hard time understanding the thinking behind much of this. (besides the lobby / political)
Why spend billions just developing a new engine, let alone producing it in quantity and modifying, re-qualifying the rocket it's going to be attached to? When you can just spend millions certifying a new and cost efficient launch vehicle?
Keep flying the Altas V and RD-180 as long as we can. It's proven, it works. They want the money, we want the engines. Buy as much time as we can. F9 will be certified well before Atlas V runs out of inventory. And the FH could be certified by then as well.
When the time comes and the USAF is comfortable enough and both vehicles have more than proven themselves, they can be added into the mix and we can slowly lessen dependence on Atlas V. (DIV production increase may not be needed in this scenario but could be increased to pick up any slack especially if FH is delayed.)
This kind of plan can be done orderly, efficiently, minimizing risks to launch assurance and save many Billions in both launch costs and by not starting a new engine program and all that implies.
Funny thing is, this already is the plan. By default. Since SpaceX isn't stopping and nobody seems to be able to make a concrete decision on the path forward. If ULA wants to re-engine Atlas V and compete it, then absolutely, please do. But I see no reason at all why the USG needs to pay for that. Maybe 5 years ago, but not now. Just keep her flying until we can't or won't. Either way, we will have options much better then cutting off RD-180s and starting a new USG funded engine program.
Cheat sheet:
Single New Engine Program - Billions - 5 to 8 years (not including GSE & Rocket Mods or Per Unit Engine Production costs)
Certification - $200 Million (+ or -) - 1 to 2.5 years (this includes both F9, FH)
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#589
by
rayleighscatter
on 25 Jul, 2014 02:00
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To the US government though, certifying SpaceX doesn't assure access, it just brings in another supplier. If SpaceX were to close shop, merge, move overseas, etc. the government could lose access just as suddenly as a foreign nation embargoing engines.
The working theory is that the only way to assure access is for the government to own the engine, then it can have anyone produce it. There are of course still flaws to this and a lot of it is based on government R&D tradition and heritage.
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#590
by
sdsds
on 25 Jul, 2014 04:34
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Just want to make clear from my humble perspective: Energomash has nothing to gain and everything to lose if a launch vehicle powered by an RD-170 family engine experiences any sort of in-flight anomaly. So that's not going to happen. (
Knock on wood.)
As regards how this "closes" long term, I think that's out of scope for a spaceflight-related discussion. General Shelton can tolerate many-month delays in launching some of his payloads if he must; obviously he would rather not. Secretary Kerry is otherwise occupied for the near future; no diplomatic action regarding these engines implies delivery on schedule....
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#591
by
newpylong
on 05 Aug, 2014 22:21
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
I stand by my belief that the engines won't ship. I'd bet the house on it.
I've backed my opinion with copious evidence. You've backed yours with derision and what can only be described as a religious like belief that the world events causing the engine embargo aren't really happening.
If you have some logical backing for your opinion, it would be nice to hear it for a change. Quite frankly, you've brought nothing to this discussion but arrogant contempt.
Short of outright war between the US and Russia, there could hardly be a more perfect storm for an engine embargo.
More RD-180s coming...
Check out @Leone_SN's Tweet:
https://twitter.com/Leone_SN/status/496718796586221568Do you people feel silly now?
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#592
by
Rocket Science
on 05 Aug, 2014 22:28
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
I stand by my belief that the engines won't ship. I'd bet the house on it.
I've backed my opinion with copious evidence. You've backed yours with derision and what can only be described as a religious like belief that the world events causing the engine embargo aren't really happening.
If you have some logical backing for your opinion, it would be nice to hear it for a change. Quite frankly, you've brought nothing to this discussion but arrogant contempt.
Short of outright war between the US and Russia, there could hardly be a more perfect storm for an engine embargo.
More RD-180s coming...
https://twitter.com/Leone_SN/status/4967187965862
Do you people feel silly now?
Nah, only becuse I got this...
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#593
by
Coastal Ron
on 05 Aug, 2014 22:54
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#594
by
Rocket Science
on 05 Aug, 2014 22:59
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#595
by
veblen
on 05 Aug, 2014 23:16
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#596
by
Lars_J
on 06 Aug, 2014 02:45
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#597
by
Space Ghost 1962
on 06 Aug, 2014 03:36
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Snark and countersnark
At the moment, it appears that the rules of engagement are about keeping favorable deals. However, with a RC-135 Rivet Joint being harried out of Baltic airspace by a Russian fighter jet and a radar lock, the old "cold war" relations seem close to the surface.
Two engines in - that buys back about 1.5 months of Atlas operations.
The more significant item is the scope of the total contract purchases against a minimum flight rate, where inventories never climb.Think that the costs of favorable deals will be assessed if borders are significantly breached, since the defensibility of such propulsion acquisition might be challenged politically if the
appearance of outright war develops. Which might happen if rebels were to lose two surrounded cities, and an embarrassed leader were to fear the loss of a strategic asset to follow. Easy to overreach, hard to back down after selling fear.
I'm glad we saw recent event less flights of Delta IV, Atlas V, and Falcon 9. No need for concern.
If there were to be concerns, probably the wisest course would be to fly on whatever LV suited at the moment, and consider long term economic propulsion options that worked best in lowest labor cost American manufacturing technologies, hedging with a few options concurrent, such that future acquisition need be driven by invested-in technologies instead of indirectly relying on lower cost labor alone. Where the potentially phantom price might not have non-transparent costs ... like war.
Of course this also means engine/technology consumption that supports such ... which means rational economics, where supply and demand
support such low costs at sustainable flight rates. Which would be a first for any country on the planet.
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#598
by
MP99
on 06 Aug, 2014 09:32
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
I stand by my belief that the engines won't ship. I'd bet the house on it.
I've backed my opinion with copious evidence. You've backed yours with derision and what can only be described as a religious like belief that the world events causing the engine embargo aren't really happening.
If you have some logical backing for your opinion, it would be nice to hear it for a change. Quite frankly, you've brought nothing to this discussion but arrogant contempt.
Short of outright war between the US and Russia, there could hardly be a more perfect storm for an engine embargo.
More RD-180s coming...
Check out @Leone_SN's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Leone_SN/status/496718796586221568
Do you people feel silly now?
" Dan Leone (Leone_SN):
Peller, @ulalaunch: biz as usual w/Russia. Got contact for 29 more RD-180s. Taking delivery of 2 in 2 weeks, despite sanctions. #aiaaSpace
http://twitter.com/Leone_SN/status/496718796586221568"
I presume those 29 engines (plus what's already on hand) are sufficient to satisfy the full 36 core block buy?
Cheers, Martin
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#599
by
Mader Levap
on 06 Aug, 2014 09:49
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I am both amused and bemused that some folks here apparently think that in Russia policy and laws (including sanctions and counter-sanctions) are set up by Twitter messages made by Russian thug with unhealthy affection for trampolines.
Even in Russia laws must pass by, you know, goverment. Yes, Assembly/Council just rubber-stamps wishes of el presidento Putin. But still, it is not Twitter tweets.
