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#560
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 18:50
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Wow, Jim. So you are really staking your ground here by saying that no change in diplomatic conditions could alter the RD-180 availability? I know you are a reactionary poster, but this seems to be a leap even for you. I'm bookmarking this for sure.
I guess I am saying that short of a war, the RD-180 will still be available. Much like trips to the ISS and Progress resupply.
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#561
by
ncb1397
on 18 Jul, 2014 19:23
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Wow, Jim. So you are really staking your ground here by saying that no change in diplomatic conditions could alter the RD-180 availability? I know you are a reactionary poster, but this seems to be a leap even for you. I'm bookmarking this for sure.
I guess I am saying that short of a war, the RD-180 will still be available. Much like trips to the ISS and Progress resupply.
There is a vast gulf between Business As Usual and a shooting war. It isn't binary.
"It" refers to what I was referencing right before, which was a possible russian engine supply shut-off. I wasn't saying the plane would be a footnote or omitted. They are actually relatively rare and well known including Iranian Air flight 655 which was shot down by the US during the Iran Iraq war and Korean Air lines flight 007 which was shot down by the Soviet Union. There have been numerous smaller planes shot down but very few with nearly 300 passengers on board. The news is being dominated by this incident. If you mention RD-180 to a well informed individual, you will most likely get a blank stare.
Just like the other two, this will fade until the next incident. 655 has been almost forgotten.
25 years later. We are hardly at that point with MH17. 655 is also simply convenient for Americans to forget. I'm sure the Iranians see it differently and I'm sure it has at least something to do with the "death to america" protests that go on there continually especially in the larger context of the U.S. support for Iraq's attack on Iran that claimed over 150,000 Iranians. If you are Iranian, you likely know of relatives or knew people that were killed or injured. That sort of collective experiance takes generations to wipe from the cultural memory.
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#562
by
veblen
on 18 Jul, 2014 19:40
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If you can do ASTP in 1975, you can buy/sell rocket motors in 2014.
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#563
by
edkyle99
on 18 Jul, 2014 19:49
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If you can do ASTP in 1975, you can buy/sell rocket motors in 2014.
Anything short of war, really. Even after World War 2 began, the U.S. did not stop trade with Nazi Germany until Germany declared war on the U.S., two years after Germany invaded Poland. Of course the Royal Navy made that trade all but impossible by blockading German ports, but some trade apparently did occur through other routes. Several big U.S. companies had longstanding contracts with the German government, for example.
- Ed Kyle
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#564
by
ncb1397
on 18 Jul, 2014 20:00
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If you can do ASTP in 1975, you can buy/sell rocket motors in 2014.
Anything short of war, really. Even after World War 2 began, the U.S. did not stop trade with Nazi Germany until Germany declared war on the U.S., two years after Germany invaded Poland. Of course the Royal Navy made that trade all but impossible by blockading German ports, but some trade apparently did occur through other routes. Several big U.S. companies had longstanding contracts with the German government, for example.
- Ed Kyle
Certainly IBM's supply of tabulation and census accounting machinary that aided Germany in the identification of Jews in Germany and their territorries shouldn't be used as some sort of example of jurisprudence going forward.
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#565
by
Shaledc
on 18 Jul, 2014 20:01
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655 has been almost forgotten.
Not by Iranians...
My point is simply this--there is going to be a cascade of sanctions and public criticism heaped on Putin. Cutting off the RD180 supply is an easy and largely painless way to retaliate and show the world that despite America's economic might, we still depend on Russia for space tech. he doesn't give a sh*t about a few tens of millions USD per year lost.
Btw- I am not happy about this- Atlas V is the most capable launcher we have or are likely to have for years. this is a dissaster.
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#566
by
Linze
on 18 Jul, 2014 21:26
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He's shown evidence of worsening diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia.
That isn't evidence. He hasn't provided any connection between that and the RD-180. It is his opinion that changes in the diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia will have an effect on the RD-180.
Wow, Jim. So you are really staking your ground here by saying that no change in diplomatic conditions could alter the RD-180 availability? I know you are a reactionary poster, but this seems to be a leap even for you. I'm bookmarking this for sure.
It's easy to understand why so many here want to avoid this outcome. An embargo will destroy careers, contracts, even entire programs. It's less easy to understand why they're denying such obvious facts on the ground.
Some may be in denial, the personal consequences too dire to consider. Some may know the truth, but refuse to admit it publicly, lest it comes to pass. For some, not conceding this near certain outcome may remove any personal feelings of guilt.
Undoubtedly, some are blaming us for giving the Russian ideas and wish we'd shut the hell up about embargoes. The truth is that no message forum is giving ideas to the Russians. The Russians know politics better than they know rockets, and the Russians know rockets.
The Air Force delivered Putin all the rationale he needs to stop shipment. They foolishly admitted an engine embargo would cause a 36 month delay in DoD launches. As so many others have illustrated, the Russians make no meaningful revenue from these sales. Compared to their natural resource exports, the engines are a rounding error.
As done deals go, the engine embargo is about as done as they get.
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#567
by
su27k
on 19 Jul, 2014 03:49
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If you can do ASTP in 1975, you can buy/sell rocket motors in 2014.
ASTP is political gesture made by equals, the parties in this rocket motor business are not equals, Russia can live without the dollars, the US do need the motors.
PS: I have no opinion on RD-180 one way or another, just want to point out ASTP is the wrong way to think about this.
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#568
by
edkyle99
on 19 Jul, 2014 03:50
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It's easy to understand why so many here want to avoid this outcome. An embargo will destroy careers, contracts, even entire programs. It's less easy to understand why they're denying such obvious facts on the ground.
.....
As done deals go, the engine embargo is about as done as they get.
The "facts" are that ULA has a contract with Energomash, and Energomash has told ULA that it will deliver the engines. Those facts did not change after Crimea, or after Rogozin's embargo threat, or after the West added sanctions. The facts may change in the future, but right now they unambiguously show that there is no RD-180 embargo.
If an embargo does happen, as has been discussed in this and other threads, ULA will launch more Delta 4 rockets while it has a replacement engine developed for Atlas 5. The company has already taken steps to do both. Those "careers" you mention have been spent preparing for such eventualities.
- Ed Kyle
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#569
by
Lar
on 19 Jul, 2014 06:09
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... until then all we have is opinion, informed or otherwise. Neither side of this argument seems to be adding anything new lately; can we let it drop until new facts surface?
We can and we will. Pages and pages of round and round are not a good use of folks time.
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#570
by
Jim
on 19 Jul, 2014 13:17
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It's easy to understand why so many here want to avoid this outcome. An embargo will destroy careers, contracts, even entire programs. It's less easy to understand why they're denying such obvious facts on the ground.
Some may be in denial, the personal consequences too dire to consider. Some may know the truth, but refuse to admit it publicly, lest it comes to pass. For some, not conceding this near certain outcome may remove any personal feelings of guilt.
Wrong. I have no stake in this either way. As I have said many times, my job is launch vehicle and launch vehicle contractor agnostic.
It is easy to make claims that the sky is falling when you have no insight on the matter, have blatant disregard for the facts and get your information from the internet.
You have yet to provide one iota of hard data to prove your case. You have been posting nothing but unfounded opinion.
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#571
by
Jim
on 19 Jul, 2014 13:18
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As done deals go, the engine embargo is about as done as they get.
I am not sure I agree with any part of that.
Edit/Lar: oh, you know what I did.
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#572
by
JazzFan
on 20 Jul, 2014 01:00
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I see anyone as being assured of outcomes on either side as relying only on optimism. There are far too many factors to make this anything more than a guess. Predictive modeling based on previous circumstances such as contractual obligations and future monitory gains are only good for making assumptions of the outcome. For example, if I stick enough quarters into a slot machine that I will eventually win. However, those in control may not have total control of the situation which leads to unforeseen outcomes such as with WW I. Putin is the ultimate decider and only knows if the engines are halted, will ship on time, or to further continue to ship under the terms of the contractual agreement. He can either decide to follow through or to term or to renig and face political and financial consequences.
On a cursory view it now appears that he is not in 100% control of the Ukraine situation but who actually knows if is instigating or is not in control of the situation. We are talking about individual people and IMHO connecting dots of the current geopolitical situation to meeting contractual obligations is just a guess or hope similar to predicting outcomes of a football game or soccer match.
I do not see enough data at this time to guarantee either outcome but will be waiting to see the outcome. I was a government analyst for a long time and not a gambling man, but I will not bet on this situation. The risk of the engine selection has been known since day one. However, I hope that they deliver on time and also meet the overall terms of the contract since Atlas is really a great vehicle.
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#573
by
QuantumG
on 21 Jul, 2014 23:20
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#574
by
Prober
on 22 Jul, 2014 02:12
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Latest: http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140721/191083393/Russia-to-Continue-Space-Rocket-Engines-Deliveries-to-US.html
Deliveries will continue for now.
yes. a WSJ article floating around as well
Russia to continue to supply rocket engines to US despite sanctionsbut this says it
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741686 “We are not going to shoot ourselves in the leg. They are organising sanctions in such a way that they will boomerang on their head. But we will continue to do (with the US) what benefits us and we will suspend what does not. Presently, the sale of engines benefits our engine-making enterprises in that they use the money for their own modernisation,” Rogozin said.
“We need the most modern engines that produce more thrust. In order to design them, we need free money. This is why we are prepared to sell them …taking the sanctions very pragmatically,” he said.
pic from the article....
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#575
by
IslandPlaya
on 22 Jul, 2014 02:18
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... and hence the USA will not buy anymore.
Thank you.
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#576
by
Jim
on 22 Jul, 2014 02:22
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I'd bet the house on it.
Its funny when people bet with assets that have no worth.
So, when should we set up the house inspection and when can we expect a move out date?
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#577
by
IslandPlaya
on 22 Jul, 2014 02:25
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I'd bet the house on it.
What move out date can we expect from you?
Rather than picking on something from 3-4 days ago, how about answering my preposition?
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#578
by
Prober
on 22 Jul, 2014 02:28
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... and hence the USA will not buy anymore.
Thank you.
you should never gamble unless you can afford to loose it
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#579
by
woods170
on 23 Jul, 2014 21:20
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