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#540
by
Prober
on 18 Jul, 2014 02:18
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With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
better read all the news before jumping into this......if anything Cash is going to be king now.
US Congress
might look at things and push funds for US engine production faster. This kind of event motivates congress.
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#541
by
Linze
on 18 Jul, 2014 02:55
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
I stand by my belief that the engines won't ship. I'd bet the house on it.
I've backed my opinion with copious evidence. You've backed yours with derision and what can only be described as a religious like belief that the world events causing the engine embargo aren't really happening.
If you have some logical backing for your opinion, it would be nice to hear it for a change. Quite frankly, you've brought nothing to this discussion but arrogant contempt.
Short of outright war between the US and Russia, there could hardly be a more perfect storm for an engine embargo.
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#542
by
Burninate
on 18 Jul, 2014 03:01
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
While I respect the pessimism up to this point... Short of an overt, official Russian military invasion, the separatists downing an international flight with Americans onboard using a specialized crew-served SAM system imported from Russia, a day after pronouncements from the US about this precise danger with additional precautionary sanctions, is about as extreme an event as might have been expected to occur. It severely strengthens a public narrative that ends in crippling sanctions on Russian exports, with the possible exception of natural gas and oil. Whatever the probability was two days ago of the RD-180 supplychain remaining intact, today's events halved that probability or more.
edit:
Short of outright war between the US and Russia, there could hardly be a more perfect storm for an engine embargo.
Perfect storm. That is the phrase I was looking for.
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#543
by
Shaledc
on 18 Jul, 2014 03:07
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With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
better read all the news before jumping into this......if anything Cash is going to be king now.
No, in crisis between Putin & USA, pride is king. The RD180 exports are profitable, but still chump change compared to big picture like gas exports.
US Congress might look at things and push funds for US engine production faster. This kind of event motivates congress.
If you read my post more carefully, you might note I said "Atlas V as we know it", in other words with Russian made engines. Sure congress may indeed fund US engine production, but that would take years and likely be somewhat different when all is said/ done.
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#544
by
sdsds
on 18 Jul, 2014 03:35
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I stand by my belief that the engines won't ship. I'd bet the house on it.
There's another thread for that. Assuming your house is made of beer, that is.
Since we're stating beliefs, mine is that the engines are not that important; Russia won't bother to block their export.
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#545
by
edkyle99
on 18 Jul, 2014 03:43
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Like Jim, I'm fully expecting to see RD-180s delivered on time. I also wouldn't be surprised if Orbital announced soon that it had decided to start buying new Russian engines for Antares in a few years.
- Ed Kyle
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#546
by
baldusi
on 18 Jul, 2014 04:33
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I also believe RD-180 will keep being exported and might even get on an Antares II. After all they need a 6tonne LV for e super extended Cygnus in CRS 2.
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#547
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 13:08
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I've backed my opinion with copious evidence.
You have not provided any "evidence" much less copious. You have only provided opinion back by opinion.
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#548
by
grythumn
on 18 Jul, 2014 15:10
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I've backed my opinion with copious evidence.
You have not provided any "evidence" much less copious. You have only provided opinion back by opinion.
He's shown evidence of worsening diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia. Whether that will lead to an interruption in supply of RD-180s is yet to be seen and until then all we have is opinion, informed or otherwise. Neither side of this argument seems to be adding anything new lately; can we let it drop until new facts surface?
-Bob
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#549
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 15:49
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He's shown evidence of worsening diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia.
That isn't evidence. He hasn't provided any connection between that and the RD-180. It is his
opinion that changes in the diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia will have an effect on the RD-180.
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#550
by
grythumn
on 18 Jul, 2014 16:14
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He's shown evidence of worsening diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia. Whether that will lead to an interruption in supply of RD-180s is yet to be seen and until then all we have is opinion, informed or otherwise.
That isn't evidence. He hasn't provided any connection between that and the RD-180. It is his opinion that changes in the diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia will have an effect on the RD-180.
Did you read the second sentence of my post? That's exactly what I said. It's his opinion it will interrupt supply, yours that it won't. Neither of you are going to convince each other, so why not let it drop until more facts surface?
-Bob
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#551
by
ncb1397
on 18 Jul, 2014 16:25
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
People in Ukraine are dying daily due to Russian disruption of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. There is no doubt that the sky is falling, only whether some obscure contract for Russian supplied rocket components will be one of the many casualties.
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#552
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 16:38
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People in Ukraine are dying daily due to Russian disruption of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. There is no doubt that the sky is falling, only whether some obscure contract for Russian supplied rocket components will be one of the many casualties.
Just another case where you are wrong again. The sky is not falling was in reference to the contract for Russian supplied rocket components and not the whole situation. Try looking at the world without your Spacex glasses on.
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#553
by
ncb1397
on 18 Jul, 2014 17:06
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People in Ukraine are dying daily due to Russian disruption of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. There is no doubt that the sky is falling, only whether some obscure contract for Russian supplied rocket components will be one of the many casualties.
Just another case where you are wrong again. The sky is not falling was in reference to the contract for Russian supplied rocket components and not the whole situation. Try looking at the world without your Spacex glasses on.
Why are you bringing up SpaceX? If anything, apparently you view everything through a SpaceX glasses. I didn't even mention them.
I'm simply viewing this situation without the space glasses on that both Obama and Putin will be looking at it from. Ultimately, we don't need the Russian engines as we have Antares, Delta II, Delta IV, Atlas re-engine, a RD-180 stockpile, Falcon 9, FH, SLS, Pegasus, etc and a robust space capability already in orbit. Also, ultimately, Russia doesn't need the revenue. Either side could shut off supply as punishment for one thing or another. Russia especially could do it without losing any sleep over it. It would only be a footnote in the history books or omitted altogether. It certainly wouldn't be a "the sky is falling situation". Boeing or Lockheed Martin stock would dip a few percent.
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#554
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 17:54
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Antares, Delta II,….., SLS, Pegasus, etc "
They don't provide the capabilities of an Atlas V or the ability to launch operational DOD spacecraft.
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#555
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 17:56
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It would only be a footnote in the history books or omitted altogether.
Correct, the plane incident will fade as time passes.
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#556
by
newpylong
on 18 Jul, 2014 18:04
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Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.
I stand by my belief that the engines won't ship. I'd bet the house on it.
I've backed my opinion with copious evidence. You've backed yours with derision and what can only be described as a religious like belief that the world events causing the engine embargo aren't really happening.
If you have some logical backing for your opinion, it would be nice to hear it for a change. Quite frankly, you've brought nothing to this discussion but arrogant contempt.
Short of outright war between the US and Russia, there could hardly be a more perfect storm for an engine embargo.
What happens when the date passes and the engines show up? How many square feet is your house and where is it?
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#557
by
ncb1397
on 18 Jul, 2014 18:13
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It would only be a footnote in the history books or omitted altogether.
Correct, the plane incident will fade as time passes.
"It" refers to what I was referencing right before, which was a possible russian engine supply shut-off. I wasn't saying the plane would be a footnote or omitted. They are actually relatively rare and well known including Iranian Air flight 655 which was shot down by the US during the Iran Iraq war and Korean Air lines flight 007 which was shot down by the Soviet Union. There have been numerous smaller planes shot down but very few with nearly 300 passengers on board. The news is being dominated by this incident. If you mention RD-180 to a well informed individual, you will most likely get a blank stare.
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#558
by
Lars_J
on 18 Jul, 2014 18:28
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He's shown evidence of worsening diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia.
That isn't evidence. He hasn't provided any connection between that and the RD-180. It is his opinion that changes in the diplomatic conditions between the US and Russia will have an effect on the RD-180.
Wow, Jim. So you are really staking your ground here by saying that no change in diplomatic conditions could alter the RD-180 availability? I know you are a reactionary poster, but this seems to be a leap even for you. I'm bookmarking this for sure.
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#559
by
Jim
on 18 Jul, 2014 18:47
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"It" refers to what I was referencing right before, which was a possible russian engine supply shut-off. I wasn't saying the plane would be a footnote or omitted. They are actually relatively rare and well known including Iranian Air flight 655 which was shot down by the US during the Iran Iraq war and Korean Air lines flight 007 which was shot down by the Soviet Union. There have been numerous smaller planes shot down but very few with nearly 300 passengers on board. The news is being dominated by this incident. If you mention RD-180 to a well informed individual, you will most likely get a blank stare.
Just like the other two, this will fade until the next incident. 655 has been almost forgotten.
