It's already had an actual consequence.
Those being?
My take is that now they are gonna ask quotes for new engine development. Then they'll get sticker shock, pay only a few 100M for a couple of years. The Ukraine crisis will have passed, they'll find an easy way to get a budget reduction by cancelling the project and they'll keep buying RD-180 until Atlas V retirement probably by 2028.
It's already had an actual consequence.
Those being?
My take is that now they are gonna ask quotes for new engine development. Then they'll get sticker shock, pay only a few 100M for a couple of years. The Ukraine crisis will have passed, they'll find an easy way to get a budget reduction by cancelling the project and they'll keep buying RD-180 until Atlas V retirement probably by 2028.
That's a realistic possibility, especially the first part. It's equally possible that Putin decides he'd rather screw the DOD than make a piddly amount of money from engine sales. The DOD has said that a lack of engines would cause 3 year delays in launching essential national security payloads. Putin had to like hearing that.
The stark reality is that these engines don't bring the Russians much money. They make more in few hours of natural resources exports than in a whole year of engine sales. The engine's political value could be much larger than their financial return.
The big question is what Boeing and Lockheed do if Rogozin makes good on his embargo threat. Do they keep the staffers on or do they release them? Does Atlas limp along or does it die?
The big question is what Boeing and Lockheed do if Rogozin makes good on his embargo threat. Do they keep the staffers on or do they release them? Does Atlas limp along or does it die?
Atlas isn't going to limp along, it has a full manifest and missions on contract to 2018. The threat was only on military missions; NASA, civil and commercial missions are not affected.
The stark reality is that these engines don't bring the Russians much money. They make more in few hours of natural resources exports than in a whole year of engine sales. The engine's political value could be much larger than their financial return.
It isnt Russia that matters, it is money to Energomash that matters.
The threat was only on military missions; NASA, civil and commercial missions are not affected.
Forgive me for not keeping up, but wasn't there a question about the definition of a "military mission"? Like, it could still be used for DOD payloads, just not weapons or something?
The threat was only on military missions; NASA, civil and commercial missions are not affected.
Forgive me for not keeping up, but wasn't there a question about the definition of a "military mission"? Like, it could still be used for DOD payloads, just not weapons or something?
that was the original interpretation.
It's equally possible that Putin decides he'd rather screw the DOD than make a piddly amount of money from engine sales.
First, he would not think that way. second, he would be screwing NPO Energomash a lot more than DOD. Second, he would not really screw them, and would in fact make a mess to the Russian space industry. Remember that the ITAR and non reciprocity on satellite parts allow the Russian state to heavily subsidize its military Proton-M launches with the commercial ones. And third, you don't want to be in breach of contract under American law, as my idiotic leaders are starting to realize. And fourth and much more important, an American bar on satellite parts for Russia, would hurt their military incredibly hard. They would be going back to 3 year life for GLONASS satellites, communications and anything in a Molnyia orbit, for example.
The DOD has said that a lack of engines would cause 3 year delays in launching essential national security payloads. Putin had to like hearing that.
That was FUD, that was the case where the 16 RD-180 on stock couldn't be used. If they did break the supply, then those could be used on the critical DOD payloads and the science and commercial part would suffer. Only to have SpaceX and Delta IV win scale economies. Very stupid thing to do. They could try to re interpret the military clause, but it very dubious legally. And again, by year's end DoD might have a realistic replacement schedule (with the extra engines shipped in August and October).
The threat was only on military missions; NASA, civil and commercial missions are not affected.
Forgive me for not keeping up, but wasn't there a question about the definition of a "military mission"? Like, it could still be used for DOD payloads, just not weapons or something?
It's hard to put any stock into the non-DOD exception. A majority of Atlas launches could be classified as DoD. Russia wouldn't make much money by only shipping non-DoD launches, it's hard to see why they'd bother.
As for the rules, the Russians pulled them out of thin air. The interpretation of the rules is as clear as mud. They can make any interpretation they like or change them whenever they want. They can allow no engines, some of them, or all of them. Only time will tell which route they've chosen.
It's hard to put any stock into the non-DOD exception. A majority of Atlas launches could be classified as DoD. Russia wouldn't make much money by only shipping non-DoD launches, it's hard to see why they'd bother.
Because you ignore the fact that it would do more damage to Energomash than ULA
Amy Butler, writing for Aviation Week, 06/18/2014, with a nice quote from Michael Gass:
Meanwhile, Gass says ULA has accelerated deliveries of five engines slated to arrive from Russia in November. Two are now expected in August and three in October. Next year’s planned delivery of six engines is being boosted to eight, which is slated to hold until all 29 on order are transferred to the U.S.
"I am not concerned that the RD-180 shipment" will not arrive as planned, Gass says. "They have always met all their commitments" at Energomash.
http://ula.lonebuffalo.com/story.cfm?story_id=7426059
A crisp answer regarding the impact of an RD-180 supply interruption, from General Shelton (Commander, AFSPC):
A twelve to forty-eight month slip on some launches.At the 1h06m point:
https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=r1xvlUwPDCE#t=3960
With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
wrong and unsubstantiated
With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
wrong and unsubstantiated
Well if the RD-180 manages to survive this episode, I think its supply will be all but assured for the foreseeable future.
With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
With yesterday's new sanctions and the downing of the 777 today, pretty much forgone conclusion we won't be getting any more rd180s. Atlas V as we know it is over once the supply runs out.
Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
In your opinion.
Let's wait for the facts, shall we?
Either of those factors would have been nails in the coffin. Combined, only the most desperate could still believe the engines will ship.
Yesterday's massive sanctions clearly angered Putin. The downing of the jet will drive an even larger nail. It means substantial western military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Putin is likely to see that aid as an even bigger snub than the sanctions.
This will play out soon enough. ULA has said they've accelerated deliveries to receive the engines next month. When August passes and ULA stays quite as a church mouse, everyone will know what hasn't shipped. The denial brigade will still refuse to accept it, they'll move the goal posts again and again. The truth is that a hot cold war kills Atlas.
And that does not exist. Your opinion does not make true. Just more nonsense again.
Only the desperate are flailing at making the sky is falling predictions.