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#500
by
jg
on 17 Jun, 2014 20:57
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?
?
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#501
by
edkyle99
on 17 Jun, 2014 21:06
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A plane will fly from Moscow to Hunstville and deliver two engines.
Huntsville? Is that really the point of delivery for the engines? Any idea why?
Decatur, just west of Huntsville, is where RD-180 is mated to Atlas 5 CCBs in the ULA factory. The engines are flown into Huntsville International, which is about 20 miles from the factory.
http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-receives-2013-delivery-of-atlas-v.aspx - Ed Kyle
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#502
by
edkyle99
on 17 Jun, 2014 21:11
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And if it doesn't happen as you describe? If the embargo lasts past the August shipment date that's been posited? What then?
There is no embargo, to the knowledge of ULA, Energomash, RD-AMROSS, etc.. But if RD-180 is not delivered, then RD-AMROSS/Energomash will have failed to meet the requirements of the contract.
- Ed Kyle
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#503
by
Jim
on 17 Jun, 2014 22:01
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If the embargo lasts past the August shipment date that's been posited?
What embargo? There is no embargo.
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#504
by
PahTo
on 17 Jun, 2014 22:14
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What type of acceptance testing or process is currently in place for RD-180s that arrive? Simple inspection? Borescope inspection? Test firing? Is there a likelihood the acceptance protocol might be "enhanced" given the current political situation?
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#505
by
arachnitect
on 17 Jun, 2014 22:26
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Why? A plane will fly from Moscow to Hunstville and deliver two engines. I can't imagine that it will be that interesting. Certainly no more interesting than the forum speculation about whether or not there would be Russians supporting the last Atlas launch, or whether that launch would be allowed to proceed, etc., etc. Turned out to be pretty boring, if you ask me.
I fully expect that what you describe will happen. The interesting part will be how the media and others who've been highlighting the RD-180 "boycott" will present the story. I hope that the result will be clarification for everyone.
- Ed Kyle
And if it doesn't happen as you describe? If the embargo lasts past the August shipment date that's been posited? What then?
Unless you have specific knowledge that any such thing will happen you're just pitching hypothetical disasters. You might as well ask what would happen if the Hawthorne factory burned to the ground.
Your continued persistence in asking this question is strange because the question has basically been answered: ULA would start moving payloads over to Delta IV as they use up the stockpile of RD-180. Predictions beyond that are difficult because they depend heavily on the nature of the hypothetical supply interruption and US gov't response. As Ed has pointed out multiple times, there is currently no disruption.
If you want people to be accountable for their predictions then so be it. Make your clearly defined prediction and we'll talk in a few months. If you want to advocate a course of action you find personally preferable, you can do that in the space policy section.
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#506
by
Jim
on 18 Jun, 2014 00:35
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What type of acceptance testing or process is currently in place for RD-180s that arrive? Simple inspection? Borescope inspection? Test firing? Is there a likelihood the acceptance protocol might be "enhanced" given the current political situation?
Simple inspection
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#507
by
EE Scott
on 18 Jun, 2014 01:02
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So, what if tensions die down, and this just blows over. Has there been enough uncertainty injected into the situation that the RD-180 is now damaged goods so to speak, such that even if export of RD-180 is not under threat, that ULA has already made the decision to switch to an alternative booster engine for Atlas V? Recent developments seem to hint that ULA may have made up their mind to initiate a search for a replacement booster engine.
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#508
by
Linze
on 18 Jun, 2014 02:40
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Why? A plane will fly from Moscow to Hunstville and deliver two engines. I can't imagine that it will be that interesting. Certainly no more interesting than the forum speculation about whether or not there would be Russians supporting the last Atlas launch, or whether that launch would be allowed to proceed, etc., etc. Turned out to be pretty boring, if you ask me.
I fully expect that what you describe will happen. The interesting part will be how the media and others who've been highlighting the RD-180 "boycott" will present the story. I hope that the result will be clarification for everyone.
- Ed Kyle
And if it doesn't happen as you describe? If the embargo lasts past the August shipment date that's been posited? What then?
Unless you have specific knowledge that any such thing will happen you're just pitching hypothetical disasters. You might as well ask what would happen if the Hawthorne factory burned to the ground.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has said he will stop shipping engines. Not just in tweets, in a press conference and in interviews with the Russian media.
This qualifies as both "specific knowledge" and general knowledge. It is not hypothetical. Nor is it remotely the same as speculating about a random disaster that might impact any business. No one is threatening to burn down the Hawthorne factory, someone is threaten to stop shipping the RD-180.
Rogozin made a specific and direct challenge to ULA's use of the RD-180. He certainly has the power to make real those threats. The actions may or may not be carried out, but it is a blatant falsehood to classify Rogozin's threat as hypothetical.
There are thousands and thousands of Americans who would be terribly impacted by an engine stoppage. It's easy to understand why some might choose to ignore this news or state with authority that a stoppage will never occur. Ignoring facts does not make them go away. Repeatedly denying a possibility does not make it less likely to happen.
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#509
by
GClark
on 18 Jun, 2014 02:53
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Then, pray, explain how no one at Energomash seems to know what Rogozin is talking about. They have, both publically and privately, maintained that they (Energomash) have received no orders to stop shipping motors.
Do you have definitive knowledge that no further RD-180s will be shipped? If not, is it your position that personnel (high, middle, and low) at Energomash are being...less than forthcoming?
Edited by PoliteEdit 2014v0 (TM applied for)
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#510
by
Blackjax
on 18 Jun, 2014 02:54
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If the embargo lasts past the August shipment date that's been posited?
What embargo? There is no embargo.
Of course there is an embargo, I'm watching it on television...
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#511
by
RocketGoBoom
on 18 Jun, 2014 03:43
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Would this new engine, if it is not an RD-180 copy, require three certification flights in order to carry DOD/USAF missions?
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#512
by
Linze
on 18 Jun, 2014 03:43
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Then, pray, explain how no one at Energomash seems to know what Rogozin is talking about. They have, both publically and privately, maintained that they (Energomash) have received no orders to stop shipping motors.
Do you have definitive knowledge that no further RD-180s will be shipped? If not, is it your position that personnel (high, middle, and low) at Energomash are being...less than forthcoming?
Edited by PoliteEdit 2014v0 (TM applied for)
Do you have definitive knowledge that further RD-180s will actually be shipped?
Yes, there is conflicting information. That doesn't mean that Rogozin's threats are empty. It only means there is conflicting information. The Energomash statements do not the nullify threats from Rogazin, or the opposite. If we only put stock in the statements from one side or the other, we're choosing the news we want to believe and ignoring that we don't.
Who has more power in the Russian bureaucracy, the head of Energomash, or Dmitry Rogozin? By most accounts, it's Rogozin. I give Rogozin's statements quite a bit more weight, but it's Putin's decision to make.
I don't pretend to know what is going to happen, but I'd never be so arrogant to say with surety that Putin will or will not halt sales. The embargo threat has been made, those that deny this are being willfully ignorant. None of us know what Putin will do. We do know that Putin often takes actions that seem to defy logic and Russia's best interests.
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#513
by
baldusi
on 18 Jun, 2014 04:11
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The only truth are actual, written court or state orders. Twitter and TV are just posturing. When and if NPO Energomash receives an actual order from the corresponding minister canceling or suspending their export license, then this will have an actual consequence.
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#514
by
QuantumG
on 18 Jun, 2014 04:13
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It's already had an actual consequence.
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#515
by
savuporo
on 18 Jun, 2014 04:27
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It's already had an actual consequence.
Probably will be a candidate for most expensive tweet of the year, if they are giving these out ..
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#516
by
Linze
on 18 Jun, 2014 04:33
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The only truth are actual, written court or state orders. Twitter and TV are just posturing. When and if NPO Energomash receives an actual order from the corresponding minister canceling or suspending their export license, then this will have an actual consequence.
If the head of NASA announced a program cancellation in a press conference, on Twitter, and in media interviews, would you demand an official, written court order before you believed it? Why do you require the head of Russia's space industry to meet this manufactured standard?
As others have said, Rogozin's proclamation has already has actual consequences. Some media analysts have written that the lack of confidence has already damaged Atlas within the government.
Whether or not the engines ship is an open question. The embargo threat is not an open question, it's a fact.
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#517
by
sdsds
on 18 Jun, 2014 06:51
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The engines are flown into Huntsville International, which is about 20 miles from the factory [in Decatur].
Oops, I should have known that! Thanks for the clue. While I'm asking dumb questions
is it correct that all RD-180 engines have been delivered by An-124? Is four RD-180 the max that have ever flown at once? Is four the limit of the An-124?
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#518
by
DGH
on 18 Jun, 2014 10:40
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Atlas V is flying more missions per year than the engines they are buying?
This correct.
The last year they were in balance was 2010.
Since then the engine reserve has shrunk by more than half.
In 2013 4 were delivered and 8 launched.
This year 5 engines will be delivered and 9 launched.
Even if there is no stoppage the number of engines in the United States will on average fall over the next several years.
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#519
by
baldusi
on 18 Jun, 2014 14:03
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Atlas V is flying more missions per year than the engines they are buying?
This correct.
The last year they were in balance was 2010.
Since then the engine reserve has shrunk by more than half.
In 2013 4 were delivered and 8 launched.
This year 5 engines will be delivered and 9 launched.
Even if there is no stoppage the number of engines in the United States will on average fall over the next several years.
So they have actually lowered their reserve and increased the expenditure. Might be financially sound... until things like this happen. I guess they'll try to increase the stock in the next few years. NPO Energomash does has the capacity now that are tooled for Angara propulsion and Zenit is basically in hibernation mode.
is it correct that all RD-180 engines have been delivered by An-124? Is four RD-180 the max that have ever flown at once? Is four the limit of the An-124?