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#440
by
savuporo
on 28 May, 2014 16:19
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These are two different things. One would be saying that hey, legally or by our charter or whatever we cannot do something. Another thing is saying that by our board members or management decisions we dont want do. Seems like the latter is the case.
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#441
by
jongoff
on 28 May, 2014 19:44
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Long story short, they were working towards building a full pre-burner/stator segment that was going to be retrofitted into a production RD-180 and test fired on the Russian hot fire stand (after having been fired using all Russian components so they have a way of comparing the two). The paper was written about a year before that point when they were just starting to fabricate the assembly from entirely US-sourced parts, materials, coatings, and using the welding/brazing techniques they had developed. So, I don't know for sure if the test firing ever happened. But if it did, I would agree with them that they retired the key risks for the RD-180 co-production.
As a follow-up, I got some additional details. Apparently they did complete full fabrication of the stator/preburner assembly (as well as some parts of the hot-section turbine), and did a burst test on the assembly, and then sectioned it up and analyzed it after the test. It apparently passed with flying colors. At that point ULA felt they had retired enough risk, that they wound the project down before doing the actual hot fire testing, but they did do a lot of flow tests on the stator with realistic hot oxidizer rich conditions with aluminum grit mixed in, just like the Russians do...
I think a hot fire testing would've shut up more quibbling engineers than just the burst test and flow testing alone, but this seems like a mature project. Admittedly, taking it the rest of the way to a full US-sourced flight engine would probably still take some Russian cooperation, which is less likely so long as people in Congress keep trying to drag this into their attempts to restart a Cold War (and so long as Elon keeps goading them on to do so to try and legislatively hobble his competition)...
~Jon
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#442
by
bad_astra
on 28 May, 2014 20:43
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(and so long as Elon keeps goading them on to do so to try and legislatively hobble his competition)...
~Jon
Not a fair comment.
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#443
by
jongoff
on 28 May, 2014 21:05
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(and so long as Elon keeps goading them on to do so to try and legislatively hobble his competition)...
~Jon
Not a fair comment.
I think it's perfectly fair. He's actively stirring the pot trying to get Congress to legislatively knock out his closest competition. I really love what SpaceX is doing on the technology side, and generally have a ton of respect for Elon, but he's descending to Boeing's level on this one, and I think it's fair to call him on it.
Admittedly, I'm pretty sure that Aerojet is also stirring the pot behind the scenes (and are probably silently cheering on Elon's actions), because they stand to make a lot of money if they can talk Congress into sole-sourcing a LOX/HC engine development to them to replace the RD-180.
But that's a discussion we've already beaten into the ground over on the "SpaceX's Actions are Irresponsible" thread...
~Jon
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#444
by
bad_astra
on 28 May, 2014 21:27
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I'll just take some advice from Princess Bride and not get involved in a land war in Asia. Made In Russia was a problem few people wanted to talk about for years including on this forum, sci.space.policy and elsewhere. When ever one of us did mention it, the matter was dealt with patronizingly by the usual suspects.
I won't get into whether the pot was stirred. I'm not a amazing people of either company. I just like to keep my employment options open, thanks. But the pot was sitting on a shaking table made out of cardboard. It didn't much matter who stirred it.
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#445
by
Linze
on 29 May, 2014 03:32
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I'll just take some advice from Princess Bride and not get involved in a land war in Asia. Made In Russia was a problem few people wanted to talk about for years including on this forum, sci.space.policy and elsewhere. When ever one of us did mention it, the matter was dealt with patronizingly by the usual suspects.
I won't get into whether the pot was stirred. I'm not a amazing people of either company. I just like to keep my employment options open, thanks. But the pot was sitting on a shaking table made out of cardboard. It didn't much matter who stirred it.
There was a religious-like faith that Russian sourcing held no risks. It was more than just wanting to believe, they had to believe. These recent events must be rocking their world to the core.
Some are still living in denial, actually trusting Putin to allow non national security uses. Some even hold that Atlas can survive a many year ban. It's the embodiment of wishful thinking.
Back in the real world, Putin now realizes the power these engines hold. If non NS uses aren't banned outright, those engines are going to suffer from unfortunate shipping delays. It's hard to see how anything leaves mother Russia until the US drops sanctions. With the war just hotting up, sanctions are going to be the new normal.
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#446
by
USFdon
on 29 May, 2014 03:34
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Or two of these.
- Ed Kyle
Looks like they even studied a two engine variant ala the NK-33ed Antares. That would certainly be useful right now...
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#447
by
Jim
on 29 May, 2014 07:29
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There was a religious-like faith that Russian sourcing held no risks. It was more than just wanting to believe, they had to believe. These recent events must be rocking their world to the core.
Some are still living in denial, actually trusting Putin to allow non national security uses. Some even hold that Atlas can survive a many year ban. It's the embodiment of wishful thinking.
Back in the real world, Putin now realizes the power these engines hold. If non NS uses aren't banned outright, those engines are going to suffer from unfortunate shipping delays. It's hard to see how anything leaves mother Russia until the US drops sanctions. With the war just hotting up, sanctions are going to be the new normal.
Reality is quite the opposite. The sky isn't falling. It is not the end of Atlas and the RD-180
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#448
by
pippin
on 29 May, 2014 08:23
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There was a religious-like faith that Russian sourcing held no risks. It was more than just wanting to believe, they had to believe. These recent events must be rocking their world to the core.
Some are still living in denial, actually trusting Putin to allow non national security uses.
Well, let's not forget that it wasn't Putin starting this but that this is a response by the Russians (at least the Russians think it is, a case of "if you are threatening to ban our engines then we are taking them away from you right away, who do you think we are?").
So yes, obviously, whenever you carry a big gun you are in danger of shooting your own foot.
The same is true for the Russians, of course. Let's never forget one thing: If they look at this with a sober mind, as I am sure most actually involved in spaceflight will do, this only harms the Russian side. They were in a solid position of having an almost monopoly on high-performance hydrolox engines, they were the only ones being able to launch humans to ISS (and Congress was likely to continue to underfund maybe even defund commercial crew), they have a foothold in Kourou, there were really solid in the business.
Six, seven years from now, nothing of this will probably still hold so I'm pretty sure if you look behind the scenes it's not the Russians stirring this up, they are not that stupid.
In fact these engines hold no power at all. If the US decides they want to live without them they can easily throw the few bn$ to the table to get a competitive engine and there goes all your power. The same is true for commercial Arianespace launches with Soyuz (except that the Europeans, having much more bureaucracy in the way and more than one opinion on the topic and also more trade with Russia show a much more tempered reaction so far).
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#449
by
Linze
on 29 May, 2014 11:38
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There was a religious-like faith that Russian sourcing held no risks. It was more than just wanting to believe, they had to believe. These recent events must be rocking their world to the core.
Some are still living in denial, actually trusting Putin to allow non national security uses.
Well, let's not forget that it wasn't Putin starting this but that this is a response by the Russians (at least the Russians think it is, a case of "if you are threatening to ban our engines then we are taking them away from you right away, who do you think we are?").
It's a mistake to believe the embargo is a response to the US injunction of Russian engines. It is not. The embargo is a response to US sanctions.
Of course the engines won't hold power forever, but they do hold power now, quite a lot of power. The Air Force has admitted the embargo could delay launches by 3 or more years. The embargo will continue to hold power for some time yet.
The reason for the embargo is so much larger than the rocket industry. The 80 million these engines bring annually is an almost insignificant amount of revenue for the Russians. Compared to their petro sales, these engines are a rounding error.
Many in the industry want to believe the embargo was spurred by the actions of SpaceX or the injunction. The truth is that these engines are a domino that's fallen due to the Russian invasion of Crimea and subsequent moves into the rest of Ukraine, each of which spurred US sanctions.
The embargo will last as long as US sanctions last. With the fighting only getting hotter, sanctions would seem with us for the long haul. Rockets are small time compared to US - Russian relations. That particular tail's not going to wag the dog, no matter how loud ULA and the Air Force wail.
How long can the Atlas program last without fresh engines? A year is a good guess, 18 months at the outside. More than a few in the industry are writing Atlas' epitaph, and with good reason.
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#450
by
pippin
on 29 May, 2014 11:49
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It's a mistake to believe the embargo is a response to the US injunction of Russian engines. It is not. The embargo is a response to US sanctions.
This is pretty OT, but: what sanctions? The US have no business worth mentioning with Russia except for spaceflight so any sanctions the US impose on Russia are pretty much laughable from the Russian POV. That's why these engines get so much attention, it's pretty much the only thing where there's really some ground to fight over.
All other "sanctions" the US have incurred where blocking the bank accounts of a few dozen people and banning them from visiting the US. Sans RD-180 and ISS impact the US sanctions are not even a mere joke.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspxMany in the industry want to believe the embargo was spurred by the actions of SpaceX or the injunction. The truth is that these engines are a domino that's fallen due to the Russian invasion of Crimea and subsequent moves into the rest of Ukraine, each of which spurred US sanctions.
This definitely gets OT. The Ukraine, Crimea,... thing is MUCH too complicated for simplistic finger pointing politics. Let's stick to the space flight impact.
Rockets are small time compared to US - Russian relations.
No, they are not. If it comes to hard business they are pretty much the only thing that stings. That's why we are seeing all this impact on the space programs everywhere. There is no other leverage - for both sides.
And in the end, whatever outcome it's the Russian space industry that gets hurt, not the US one. The US will recover from this and probably even start to invest more to gain independence - even if this gets sorted in the short term.
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#451
by
Linze
on 29 May, 2014 11:52
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Reality is quite the opposite. The sky isn't falling. It is not the end of Atlas and the RD-180
Falling? A big chunk's already fallen.
If Putin doesn't stand down, the White House can't drop sanctions. If sanctions don't drop, the engines don't ship. If the engines don't ship, 8 to 12 months from now, lay offs start. 12 to 18 months from now, the program is irretrievable.
I get that folks want to believe Atlas is going to keep flying. It's just not on the cards. Denial is the first stage, next stop is anger.
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#452
by
Linze
on 29 May, 2014 12:27
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No, they are not. If it comes to hard business they are pretty much the only thing that stings. That's why we are seeing all this impact on the space programs everywhere. There is no other leverage - for both sides.
Russia has almost no leverage points, but the US has tremendous unused leverage. Were the US to pass sweeping financial sanctions against Russia, their economy would collapse. Even though there is little direct trade, the US is the world's reserve currency. This is why the Iranian sanctions are so damaging. Sweeping US financial sanction would do nearly incalculable damage to Russia.
When compared to the larger issue of US - Russian relations, the rocket industry is smaller than small. The engines sales bring in 80, perhaps 100 million dollars in annual revenue. This is a rounding error when viewed alongside Russia's real export earners like petroleum and mining.
Right now, because of some very poor risk mitigation by the US government, these engines are politically important. They are not and never were economically important. They are one of the few levers the Russians have over the US. The US has huge levers yet to use against the Russians. If the invasion of eastern Ukraine continues, the US will pull more of these levers.
And in the end, whatever outcome it's the Russian space industry that gets hurt, not the US one. The US will recover from this and probably even start to invest more to gain independence - even if this gets sorted in the short term.
You're right. In as little as five years, the US will see a net benefit and Russia will be harmed, even if Atlas is cancelled and launches are delayed 3 years. The problem is that Putin doesn't care. The invasion of Crimea cost the Russian economy close to 100 billion dollars. Putin didn't care. 50 billion was spent on an Olympics that should have cost 10 billion. Putin didn't care. The graft alone from the winter games was 40 times the revenue of these rocket engines. Putin doesn't care.
The current sanctions are not mortally damaging, but they're very public and anger Putin. The engines are politically important, not economically. They're only politically important to the US. The trust is already broken, the US will now be forced to peruse a completely domestic path even if engines ship tomorrow. This means that the Russians lose nothing by holding the engines back. They'll ship when the sanctions lift, and not a day before.
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#453
by
pippin
on 29 May, 2014 12:41
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the US has tremendous unused leverage.
Mostly OT, but you said that the Russian ban was a reaction to US sanctions. "Unused" potential is something pretty different than existing sanctions. So are you saying that the RD-180 ban is a reaction to the threat to use that "unused potential" or something. Sorry, this doesn't make sense.
Right now there is close to nothing, the Congress' threat to ban RD-180 was the only thing to make the news so the Russians reacted to it. End of story. A purely spaceflight related story, right now.
If the invasion of eastern Ukraine continues, the US will pull more of these levers.
There is no such thing as an invasion of eastern Ukraine.
You're right. In as little as five years, the US will see a net benefit and Russia will be harmed, even if Atlas is cancelled and launches are delayed 3 years. The problem is that Putin doesn't care. The invasion of Crimea cost the Russian economy close to 100 billion dollars. Putin didn't care.
I don't believe this.
Putin did care but in Crimea he had no choice. Let's not forget Putin is an elected president. He might be pretty ruthless but his power lies in his economic success. Take that away - and this whole affair does have quite the potential to do so - and it will be the end for his power.
Putin's not stupid, he knows all that, this is why he's trying to get the Genie back into the bottle but it's not easy. Mood's pretty high in both Ukraine and Russia over this.
The real problem is that on both sides - US and Russia politicians are playing things up for domestic policy reasons, to make a point towards their own voter base.
And it looks like international cooperation in spaceflight is a collateral damage both sides are willing to accept. The big issue at hand is that in most other aspects issues will likely calm down in a few months but the damage done to spaceflight might be more permanent because spaceflight is so much relying on international cooperation wherever it goes beyond straightforward commercial applications.
Everybody should better take a deep breath WRT this issue and not overreact.
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#454
by
Prober
on 29 May, 2014 14:11
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Reality is quite the opposite. The sky isn't falling. It is not the end of Atlas and the RD-180
Falling? A big chunk's already fallen.
If Putin doesn't stand down, the White House can't drop sanctions.
Not to take this thread off topic but define stand down? What's gotten lost in time is Crimea.
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#455
by
ncb1397
on 29 May, 2014 14:38
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If the invasion of eastern Ukraine continues, the US will pull more of these levers.
There is no such thing as an invasion of eastern Ukraine.
Every map I have seen puts Crimea in eastern Ukraine. Even the Russian ones. As an example, the link with the map below is dated 2009 from Ria Novosti, a news agency operating under the Russian Ministry of Communications and Mass Media.
http://en.ria.ru/infographics/20090609/155206402.htmlClearly visible is the Crimean peninsula with Sevastopol, Simferopol and Kerch.
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#456
by
pippin
on 29 May, 2014 14:46
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OK, let's stop the OT stuff. If people talk about eastern Ukraine in the news today they usually mean Donbas. Crimea is Crimea, it's in the south and there was no invasion, the Russians have always been there.
Please let's not discuss here about general politics, this is complex, it's not something we are going to solve here.
Edit: I just realize you weren't Linze I've been responding to, so edited back.
The point of the whole argument was: the "supply risk" for RD-180 is entirely one the US chose to imply on themselves, the US created the RD-180 situation all by themselves, it's not something "unreliable Russians" have started. What interests were involved in this remains to be seen, you probably know more about that then I do, I only see the Congress action and the SpaceX claims/legal action.
There was no outside necessity to "endanger" the Atlas supply, if it's endangered this is the case because obviously some people thought it's a lesser risk than what could be gained from it.
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#457
by
Targeteer
on 29 May, 2014 23:08
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The story finally made the mainstream press tonight with a story on the CBS Evening news with comments from Bill Harwood.
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#458
by
Linze
on 29 May, 2014 23:08
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The point of the whole argument was: the "supply risk" for RD-180 is entirely one the US chose to imply on themselves, the US created the RD-180 situation all by themselves, it's not something "unreliable Russians" have started. What interests were involved in this remains to be seen, you probably know more about that then I do, I only see the Congress action and the SpaceX claims/legal action.
Whether or not it was started by "unreliable Russians", that's where it is now. The moment Russia announced their embargo, the US government could no longer pretend that Russia provided a reliable engine supply. Congress will not believe any Russian engined vehicle can provide assured access to space. Vehicles requiring Russian engines won't get funded.
Even if the Russian relations stabalized tomorrow, it would be too late. The embargo changed everything. The trust has been broken. The US would still be forced to develop completely domestic solutions. Atlas is nearing an end, Orbital's Russian engine buys are almost certainly at an end. No US government agency will soon bet their future on a product with Russian engines.
This is why Putin has no incentive to ship engines before US sanctions lift. Even if he allows engines to ship tomorrow, at best they'll keep shipping for a few years. No matter what Putin does, Russian engine sales to the US are coming to an end.
There is no long-term benefit for Putin to lift sanctions. It won't help his rocket business. Whether he ships the engines or not, the long-term business is gone. He only needs to focus on the short-term gains, like pushing the US to drop sanctions.
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#459
by
savuporo
on 29 May, 2014 23:20
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The embargo changed everything. The trust has been broken..
And the the amazing thing is .. there is no embargo. There is just a tweet from mr. Rogozin, who self-describes himself as
"I'm just a bad character" ( in response to Kosmomolskaya Pravda question about his social media presence )
