I'm looking for a few sanity checks on some numbers I'm running for the full cost of a Delta IV Heavy launch to the government going forward.
I'm using the latest GAO report on "Assessments of Selected Weapons Systems":
http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/653379.pdfOn p. 59 (PDF p. 65), in the grey box titled "Program Performance", the report quotes a "Program Unit Cost" of $381 million. That obviously includes both direct launch costs as well as sustainment costs.
This may be a dubious assumption, but assuming that "Program Unit Cost" roughly equates to a single-core EELV launch, I get a cost of $1.1 billion for a three-core Delta IV Heavy launch. That figure approaches old Titan launch costs, which intuitively seems too high to me. But EELV costs have been going up steadily and this figure is supposed to capture full costs, including sustainment. Does $1.1 billion per DIVH launch seem sane/in-the-ballpark given the above? Or is that figure way off and I'm making a critical error in my reasoning?
Similarly, on p. 60 (PDF p. 66), under "Other Program Issues", the report states that the EELV program has been restructured since its Nunn-McCurdy breach at a cost of $69.6 billion for 150 launches going forward. These figures yield a cost of $464 per launch. But again assuming that represents a single-core launch, I get a cost of $1.4 billion for a three-core DIVH launch. Sane or egregiously erroneous?
Criticism, insights, and (especially) links to current and future DIVH launch costs much appreciated.
Thanks.