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Delta IV Heavy Full Cost to Government Going Forward by dark.blue.nine on 10 Aug, 2013 18:17
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I'm looking for a few sanity checks on some numbers I'm running for the full cost of a Delta IV Heavy launch to the government going forward.
I'm using the latest GAO report on "Assessments of Selected Weapons Systems":
http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/653379.pdf
On p. 59 (PDF p. 65), in the grey box titled "Program Performance", the report quotes a "Program Unit Cost" of $381 million. That obviously includes both direct launch costs as well as sustainment costs.
This may be a dubious assumption, but assuming that "Program Unit Cost" roughly equates to a single-core EELV launch, I get a cost of $1.1 billion for a three-core Delta IV Heavy launch. That figure approaches old Titan launch costs, which intuitively seems too high to me. But EELV costs have been going up steadily and this figure is supposed to capture full costs, including sustainment. Does $1.1 billion per DIVH launch seem sane/in-the-ballpark given the above? Or is that figure way off and I'm making a critical error in my reasoning?
Similarly, on p. 60 (PDF p. 66), under "Other Program Issues", the report states that the EELV program has been restructured since its Nunn-McCurdy breach at a cost of $69.6 billion for 150 launches going forward. These figures yield a cost of $464 per launch. But again assuming that represents a single-core launch, I get a cost of $1.4 billion for a three-core DIVH launch. Sane or egregiously erroneous?
Criticism, insights, and (especially) links to current and future DIVH launch costs much appreciated.
Thanks.
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#1 by edkyle99 on 10 Aug, 2013 18:43
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This may be a dubious assumption, but assuming that "Program Unit Cost" roughly equates to a single-core EELV launch, I get a cost of $1.1 billion for a three-core Delta IV Heavy launch. That figure approaches old Titan launch costs, which intuitively seems too high to me. But EELV costs have been going up steadily and this figure is supposed to capture full costs, including sustainment. Does $1.1 billion per DIVH launch seem sane/in-the-ballpark given the above? Or is that figure way off and I'm making a critical error in my reasoning?
I doubt that costs would scale that way. It doesn't take into account the cost of the upper stage, for example, or the solid boosters, etc.. Remember too that Titan IV didn't have the wider "Medium" program over which to spread its costs like Delta IV.
I don't have a good basis for this, but my gut feel is that Delta 4 Heavy by itself costs less than Titan IV on an average per-launch basis, but not by much.
Here, for example, is one crude way to look at things. There have been 25 Delta 4 launches, 6 of which were Heavies. $464M x 25 = $11.6B. Now assume that costs average by stages. A Medium has two stages and a Heavy has four. That makes 62 total stages flown for $11.6B, or $187.1M per stage. That results in the following averages.
Medium = 2*$187.1M = $374.2M
Heavy = 4*$187.1M = $748.4M
A wild guess.
- Ed Kyle -
#2 by dark.blue.nine on 10 Aug, 2013 19:06
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I doubt that costs would scale that way.
Me too, which is partly why I'm asking. I'm hoping someone has a better reference/link that's specific to current or future DIVH costs.QuoteI don't have a good basis for this, but my gut feel is that Delta 4 Heavy by itself costs less than Titan IV on an average per-launch basis, but not by much.
What do you think the average Titan IV launch cost was?
I thought it was more than a billion bucks. But Wikipedia references an old GAO report which states that Martin Marietta had an $18.3 billion contract for 65 vehicles. In 2013 dollars, the Wikipedia article claims that would be $32.2 billion. That yields a cost of $497 million per launch, which seems too low to me by a factor of 2-3. But maybe I'm off by that much.
Thanks for the feedback.
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#3 by dark.blue.nine on 10 Aug, 2013 19:08
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Here, for example, is one crude way to look at things. There have been 25 Delta 4 launches, 6 of which were Heavies. $464M x 25 = $11.6B. Now assume that costs average by stages. A Medium has two stages and a Heavy has four. That makes 62 total stages flown for $11.6B, or $187.1M per stage. That results in the following averages.
Medium = 2*$187.1M = $374.2M
Heavy = 4*$187.1M = $748.4M
I don't know if I can use it, but I like that reasoning. Seems more rational than the figures that I was getting from just counting cores.
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#4 by edkyle99 on 12 Aug, 2013 14:05
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What do you think the average Titan IV launch cost was?
That is a tough question to answer. Titan IV was more than just Titan IV. Lockheed Martin had a contract for the basic vehicle. United Technologies and Alliant had contracts for SRM(U). Boeing had a contract for IUS. A lot of money was spent on launch sites. Then there is the question of Titan IVA versus Titan IVB because a lot of money was spent developing SRMU for Titan IVB but it only flew a few times.
One mid-1990s reference (GAO/NSIAD-98-31) estimates total program costs at $23.65 billion for 39 launches, an average of $606.41 million per flight in then-year dollars, which would be about $929 million in 2013 dollars. Note, however, that this was before the series of late 1990s failures that would have added more costs. It is also before SRMU entered use, which also increased costs. Titan IV is one of the few launch vehicles that grew more expensive as time passed.
- Ed Kyle -
#5 by Jim on 12 Aug, 2013 15:02
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What do you think the average Titan IV launch cost was?
That is a tough question to answer. Titan IV was more than just Titan IV. Lockheed Martin had a contract for the basic vehicle. United Technologies and Alliant had contracts for SRM(U). Boeing had a contract for IUS. A lot of money was spent on launch sites.
LM was responsible for the whole vehicle, unlike T-III. LM held the contracts with Aerojet (engines), UTC/Alliant (solids), McD (fairings), AC Delco (Guidance) etc, except for IUS. -
#6 by Prober on 13 Aug, 2013 13:26
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Wasn't there a cost sharing with JAXA for their launcher?
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#7 by baldusi on 13 Aug, 2013 14:11
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oh, btw, the full cost of the launch service, control and recovery of the EFT-1 cost around 375M, I think. Or was it 400M? That is a full custom mission wid unique aerodynamics and comples DIVUS manouver with payload recovery. The true cost of a DIHV launch can't be higher than that. And that included the Boeing fees on each core! I think that most of the other cost is testing and process control that are part of the self insurance policy of DoD.
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#8 by Galactic Penguin SST on 13 Aug, 2013 14:26
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Wasn't there a cost sharing with JAXA for their launcher?
Huh? There are shared parts between DIV and H-II!?
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#9 by edkyle99 on 13 Aug, 2013 16:30
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Wasn't there a cost sharing with JAXA for their launcher?
Huh? There are shared parts between DIV and H-II!?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan builds, or built, the 4-meter diameter Medium second stage LH2 tanks, which are similar to the H-II(A) tanks. I'm not sure if Mitsubishi builds the 5 meter tanks.
- Ed Kyle -
#10 by edkyle99 on 13 Aug, 2013 16:33
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oh, btw, the full cost of the launch service, control and recovery of the EFT-1 cost around 375M, I think. Or was it 400M? That is a full custom mission wid unique aerodynamics and comples DIVUS manouver with payload recovery. The true cost of a DIHV launch can't be higher than that. And that included the Boeing fees on each core! I think that most of the other cost is testing and process control that are part of the self insurance policy of DoD.
The higher costs we are discussing include development costs and launch site and factory costs, etc., which would not have been included in the $375 million number. Total program costs divided by total number of launches, all estimates at this point of course.
- Ed Kyle -
#11 by baldusi on 13 Aug, 2013 17:21
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So you are saying that LM got a subsidized price?oh, btw, the full cost of the launch service, control and recovery of the EFT-1 cost around 375M, I think. Or was it 400M? That is a full custom mission wid unique aerodynamics and comples DIVUS manouver with payload recovery. The true cost of a DIHV launch can't be higher than that. And that included the Boeing fees on each core! I think that most of the other cost is testing and process control that are part of the self insurance policy of DoD.
The higher costs we are discussing include development costs and launch site and factory costs, etc., which would not have been included in the $375 million number. Total program costs divided by total number of launches, all estimates at this point of course.
- Ed Kyle -
#12 by edkyle99 on 13 Aug, 2013 18:05
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So you are saying that LM got a subsidized price?
No, just that the accounting works this way. Contracts for a launch are separate from the infrastructure and development contracts, etc.
- Ed Kyle
