Author Topic: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis  (Read 391553 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #660 on: 03/16/2015 04:02 pm »
AvWeek Paris ‏@AvWeekParis 39m39 minutes ago

Quote
Shotwell on #SpaceX Falcon 9 manifest: Turkmenistan 3/21, pad abort slip to April, NASA cargo mid-April, then another CRS + Jason-3 in July.

https://twitter.com/AvWeekParis/status/577504879574323200

Hmm, not sure what happened to any launches in May / June, or she just didn't mention them due to some uncertainty / client constraint?

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #661 on: 03/16/2015 04:08 pm »
AvWeek Paris ‏@AvWeekParis 39m39 minutes ago

Quote
Shotwell on #SpaceX Falcon 9 manifest: Turkmenistan 3/21, pad abort slip to April, NASA cargo mid-April, then another CRS + Jason-3 in July.

https://twitter.com/AvWeekParis/status/577504879574323200

Hmm, not sure what happened to any launches in May / June, or she just didn't mention them due to some uncertainty / client constraint?

Sounds like SES-9 and Orbcomm payloads may not be ready before the Jason-3 launch.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2015 04:09 pm by Kabloona »

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #662 on: 03/16/2015 04:09 pm »
AvWeek Paris ‏@AvWeekParis 39m39 minutes ago

Quote
Shotwell on #SpaceX Falcon 9 manifest: Turkmenistan 3/21, pad abort slip to April, NASA cargo mid-April, then another CRS + Jason-3 in July.

https://twitter.com/AvWeekParis/status/577504879574323200

Hmm, not sure what happened to any launches in May / June, or she just didn't mention them due to some uncertainty / client constraint?

This missing payload seems to be SES-9.  CRS-7 was scheduled for June 22, seems it's slipping to early July (perhaps at NASA's request).  Jason-3 was waiting on NASA certification, which is not yet complete (but very close).  Orbcomm was scheduled for June-July, but I think they've been having payload-side delays there.

SES-9 was slated to be the first flight with uprated Merlins.  I wonder what's up with that.

EDIT: with the apparent payload gap, I wonder if Pad Abort might slide past CRS-6.  There's plenty of time afterwards, why rush the pad to squeeze Pad Abort between Turkmenistan and CRS-6?  And Gwynne didn't say *when* in April the Pad Abort would be.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2015 04:15 pm by cscott »

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #663 on: 03/16/2015 04:19 pm »
Quote
SES-9 was slated to be the first flight with uprated Merlins.  I wonder what's up with that.

Yes, SES did say they are willing to take the first ride on uprated Merlins:

http://spacenews.com/ses-decides-to-take-the-plunge-on-enhanced-falcon-9/

Plus there is a financial incentive for them to launch before July. So it seems significant that Gwynne didn't mention them. Maybe the payload won't be ready in time.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2015 04:31 pm by Kabloona »

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #664 on: 03/16/2015 05:17 pm »
I'm trying to track two stats:
1. number of "commercial" launches that SpaceX does/doesn't get each year
2. number of total launches to date of SpaceX vs. other "available" launchers

Commercial launches - any primary payload that's not owned by a government-related entity of a state that uses it's own launcher + any other competitively bid primary payloads

Available launchers - rocket that's still available for future bookings - of course the lines between "part of the same family" and "practically different rocket" are blurry

Regarding 1 - SpaceX out of all commercial:
2013 - 3/27.5 (10%)
2014 - 6/28.5 (20%)
2015 - 16/44 (36%)

Regarding 2 - 2015 Falcon will be between 15th and 10th most flown; extrapolating to when Proton is replaced with Angara - at that time Falcon will be the 3rd most flown (after Soyuz and Long March)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #665 on: 03/16/2015 06:14 pm »
Interesting charts, thanks.

Falcon 9 has only flown 16 times. The no longer available Falcon 1 flew the other 5 times.

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #666 on: 03/16/2015 06:19 pm »
Interesting charts, thanks.

Falcon 9 has only flown 16 times. The no longer available Falcon 1 flew the other 5 times.
From the OP:
Available launchers - rocket that's still available for future bookings - of course the lines between "part of the same family" and "practically different rocket" are blurry

The Falcon 1 shares flight heritage with the Falcon 9.  Other launcher families are treated similarly, for example the 1965 Proton and 1966 Soyuz are undoubtedly very different from their modern incarnations.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2015 06:20 pm by cscott »

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #667 on: 03/16/2015 07:04 pm »

Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust 2 hours ago

SpaceX's Gwynne Shotwell confirms that SpaceX will attempt landing first stage on drone ship on next two NASA CRS launches.

So that would mean Yes (legs) on CRS-6 and 7

Online kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #668 on: 03/16/2015 09:58 pm »

So that would mean Yes (legs) on CRS-6 and 7
Unless they replaced them with tentacles ;)
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Offline JBF

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #669 on: 03/16/2015 10:42 pm »

So that would mean Yes (legs) on CRS-6 and 7
Unless they replaced them with tentacles ;)

hmmm tentacles have suckers so perhaps it could stick the landing better.
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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #670 on: 03/17/2015 06:36 am »
SpaceX's target for the year:

Quote
[...] expects to meet its target of 13 launches and two test flights this year, President Gwynne Shotwell told Reuters.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0MD0B120150317?irpc=932

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #671 on: 03/17/2015 10:39 am »
They will probably have to go through the same sequence (successful barge landings first, then RTLS attempts) on the West Coast as they are doing at the Cape, so I wouldn't expect to see an RTLS at VAFB this year.

Why would you think this? Precision landing is precision landing. No matter where demonstrated.

Surely you have heard of NIH (Not Invented Here). There is a corollary principle, "Not Demonstrated Here."

It will be a different Range organization (30th Space Wing at VAFB vs. 45th Space Wing at the Cape) on a different Air Force  base run by a different base commander whose main concern will be that a rocket not crash land on his assets, and while some successful landings at the Cape will go a long way towards assuaging their concerns, I'd be very surprised if VAFB allowed an RTLS attempt without having any barge landings done offshore on THEIR range first. Ranges are very conservative and have nothing to lose by demanding that the same protocols done elsewhere (eg multiple barge landings before RTLS) be demonstrated on their property before they allow something so new and potentially hazardous as incoming rocket stages.

You also have to remember that the 30th Space Wing people will need to get familiar with new range safety regs and procedures for incoming stages, and they are going to have to get trained and up to speed before RTLS, and having SpaceX doing some barge landings first will let them get up to speed before a live RTLS scenario.

I could be wrong, of course. But I'd be willing to bet a case of beer that VAFB will not allow an RTLS attempt until SpaceX does at least one successful barge landing on a launch out of VAFB first.

I think you're wrong.  Requiring a demonstration on the West Coast after it ha been demonstrated off the East Coast is just far beyond the limits of how irrational the base commander could be.  Ask to have a separate review of the data -- maybe.  But not another demonstration landing.  Anyway, this would be such a high-visibility decision the base commander would have to worry about his career if he made such a stupid decision just for his own ego.  Also, you have to consider that VAFB does more in the way of experimental launches compared to operational launches compared to CCAFB.  Vandenberg is where ICBMs are tested.

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #672 on: 03/17/2015 11:18 am »
Just a question, would any Vandenberg landing have to dogleg around the oil platforms?
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #673 on: 03/17/2015 11:56 am »

I think you're wrong.  Requiring a demonstration on the West Coast after it ha been demonstrated off the East Coast is just far beyond the limits of how irrational the base commander could be... Anyway, this would be such a high-visibility decision the base commander would have to worry about his career if he made such a stupid decision just for his own ego.  Also, you have to consider that VAFB does more in the way of experimental launches compared to operational launches compared to CCAFB.  Vandenberg is where ICBMs are tested.

I respectfully disagree. The base commander would have to worry about his career for putting base safety first? No way. That's his number one job. Where he *would* have to worry about his career is when an incoming stage crashed on a building and he was judged not to have been sufficiently rigorous in safety procedures. Base commanders have been fired for not securing aircraft adequately in advance of storms. I'm not aware of any being fired because he was too careful in securing his base.

And where is it written that just because a landing demo is done at the Cape, he cannot require a similar demo on his base first? The Air Force makes the rules on both ranges, and if the Air Force says demo barge landings have to be done at both ranges, that's the way it will be.

If you have knowledge that the Air Force has agreed to allow SpaceX to attempt RTLS at VAFB solely on the basis of barge landings at the Cape, then I'm wrong, obviously, but I haven't heard of any such explicit agreement. All I know is that they're requiring barge landings at the Cape before allowing Cape RTLS. I haven't heard anything about VAFB range requirements.

And as for VAFB having experience testing ICBM's, to my knowledge they have all been outgoing, not incoming, which is a different kettle of fish.

OK, we disagree, let's move on. Time will tell what actually happens at VAFB.
« Last Edit: 03/17/2015 12:32 pm by Kabloona »

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #674 on: 03/17/2015 12:11 pm »
I will note that both launch from SLC-4E and flyback to SLC-4W will overfly SLC-6, assuming launch is to the south, so some caution is certainly warranted.  I take no position as to whether that caution justifies a separate demonstration flight.

Offline nadreck

Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #675 on: 04/07/2015 05:12 pm »
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/optus-in-talks-with-rocket-man-elon-musk/story-fn91v9q3-1227294820449

Quote
But the nationís No 2 telco has plans to launch another satellite in 2018 and will need a launch a partner to provide the rockets that would send its precious payload into space.

My take is that these guys are at least shaking down Arianespace, but most likely will end up contracting with SpaceX. I also think that expansion in Australia/NZ/Philippines telecom and earth monitoring satellites will be good business over the next 10 years.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Tonioroffo

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #676 on: 04/08/2015 02:56 pm »
Quote
And as for VAFB having experience testing ICBM's, to my knowledge they have all been outgoing, not incoming, which is a different kettle of fish.

Incoming ICBM's at an Air Force base... I'm getting flashbacks of Wargames & Defcon 1.


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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #677 on: 04/13/2015 09:02 am »
Anyone know which future spacex mission will do TLI, I just found this and am wondering what the primary payload is.
Quote
Launch Opportunity #2:
Preliminary orbit: Translunar injection (lunar impact may be available at additional cost)
Launch date: H2 2016
Launch vehicle: Falcon 9
source: http://pocketspacecraft.com/picri2016/

I was wondering if they would be a secondary on Astrobotics' proposed launch? I still don't see them in spacex launch manifest so I guess Astrobotic doesn't have a real contract yet.

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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #678 on: 04/15/2015 02:29 pm »
Anyone taking a step back?
We have a potential for the 4th  5th SpaceX launch this year and it is still April! We were waiting for the 4th launch last year in August. 
(-edit- 4th to 5th!)
« Last Edit: 04/15/2015 06:47 pm by CraigLieb »
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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #679 on: 04/15/2015 02:57 pm »
Psst, I think you mean "5th".

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