SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD

[Robotbeat]

I would tend to use a Napoleon quote for the slip... It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

No spin is needed.

And note that we are at the point in development of the v1.1 where slips in the launch date trickles down to the whole manifest. Slipping the whole manifest adds up to a lot of money and will not be done lightly.

Of course the whole manifest was slipped by the introduction of the v1.1 but that was for good reasons even if we did hash it over on this forum.

...I'm not sure I agree. A small slip of just three days does not automatically slip everything, such as GH2 development, Dragon development, flights at the West Coast range, McGregor acceptance tests of engines and stages, the (comparatively small, I'd wager) Raptor engine work, and possibly work on other potential launch sites.

[aero]

I would tend to use a Napoleon quote for the slip... It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

No spin is needed.

And note that we are at the point in development of the v1.1 where slips in the launch date trickles down to the whole manifest. Slipping the whole manifest adds up to a lot of money and will not be done lightly.

Of course the whole manifest was slipped by the introduction of the v1.1 but that was for good reasons even if we did hash it over on this forum.

...I'm not sure I agree. A small slip of just three days does not automatically slip everything, such as GH2 development, Dragon development, flights at the West Coast range, McGregor acceptance tests of engines and stages, the (comparatively small, I'd wager) Raptor engine work, and possibly work on other potential launch sites.

Perhaps I needed to write "launch manifest" as that was my intended meaning.

And you may be right that a slip at the cape does not necessarily lead to a slip at Vandenberg. And maybe the schedule at the cape is not so tight that slips can't be recovered from but it is getting more problematic in the near term, say 4-6 months. Maybe someone who fully understands launch ops will enlighten us.

[LouScheffer]

I would tend to use a Napoleon quote for the slip... It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

No spin is needed.

And note that we are at the point in development of the v1.1 where slips in the launch date trickles down to the whole manifest. Slipping the whole manifest adds up to a lot of money and will not be done lightly.

Of course the whole manifest was slipped by the introduction of the v1.1 but that was for good reasons even if we did hash it over on this forum.

When launchers start out, they tend to slip quite a bit.  As the flow is worked out, they eventually transition to a few days slack instead of a few days slip, so they can launch on schedule even if there is a some minor problem.  About how many launches did this take for Delta, Atlas, Ariane and Soyuz? (a graph of slip vs launch number would be even better...)

[Norm38]

It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

Agreed.  It wasn't a conspiracy.  Just an observation that the only good reason to push employees to work long hours and meet deadlines at the end of the year, when many of them would like to have time off at Christmas, is when Q4 numbers MUST be met.  SpaceX isn't in that position that I'm aware of.  So they have little reason to force a December launch.  That was all.

[WHAP]

It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

Agreed.  It wasn't a conspiracy.  Just an observation that the only good reason to push employees to work long hours and meet deadlines at the end of the year, when many of them would like to have time off at Christmas, is when Q4 numbers MUST be met.  SpaceX isn't in that position that I'm aware of.  So they have little reason to force a December launch.  That was all.

Of course, SpaceX did work its employees extremely hard at the end of the year few years ago to erect an F9 v1.0 with a large fairing.  I've never heard a good reason for that, and I'm not looking for one - that's their decision.  Based on that PLF event and the elimination of the WDR for the SES launch, I'd say that there is pressure to make a December launch.  I'm not going to try to guess the reasons.

[SIM city]

It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

Agreed.  It wasn't a conspiracy.  Just an observation that the only good reason to push employees to work long hours and meet deadlines at the end of the year, when many of them would like to have time off at Christmas, is when Q4 numbers MUST be met.  SpaceX isn't in that position that I'm aware of.  So they have little reason to force a December launch.  That was all.

Of course, SpaceX did work its employees extremely hard at the end of the year few years ago to erect an F9 v1.0 with a large fairing.  I've never heard a good reason for that, and I'm not looking for one - that's their decision.  Based on that PLF event and the elimination of the WDR for the SES launch, I'd say that there is pressure to make a December launch.  I'm not going to try to guess the reasons.

Possibly contractual deadlines on Thaicom 6 launch - ie, delay penalties or default after 31 December.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

I have checked the previous US launch records of the past 25 years - there were a few orbital launches that were made very, very close to the new year:

Commercial Titan III - Skynet 4A & JCSAT-2 - December 31, 1989 (7:07 pm EST - actually this happens 7 minutes after the new year if you are counting GMT!)

Atlas-E - NOAA-14 - December 30, 1994

Delta II - XTE - December 30, 1995

There are quite a few more launches that happens in December 20-23, as well as in early January.

So maybe SpaceX can really pull this one off before the new year.....if more than everything goes in the right One Direction? 

[Lars_J]

Here's an interesting thought.  Managers love to play games with shipments at the end of the year.  Do they need this Q4 to look good, or next Q1?  So considering the flight rate, SpaceX needs to start showing the ability to do lots of launches per year, right?

Well this year's already blown, but '14 could be a bumper crop.  So if they held off until just after New Year's, then they get a head start on running up '14s count. For what it's worth...

It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

Agreed.  It wasn't a conspiracy.  Just an observation that the only good reason to push employees to work long hours and meet deadlines at the end of the year, when many of them would like to have time off at Christmas, is when Q4 numbers MUST be met.  SpaceX isn't in that position that I'm aware of.  So they have little reason to force a December launch.  That was all.

Make up your mind... First you theorize that SpaceX is delaying the launch to pad Q1 2014 numbers - and now you suggest they might hurry up the launch to pad Q4 2013 numbers? Give it a rest.

They will launch when they are ready.

[Norm38]

^^^No, I did not suggest that.  I said SpaceX isn't in a position to need to force a December launch.  If they're ready they're ready.  But if they're not, there's no downside to waiting.
And if there is no upside to waiting for '14, then I expect I won't see any posts a year from now saying that SpaceX hasn't yet hit X launches per year.

[Lurker Steve]

They are already trying to launch SES-8 just before Thanksgiving. Let's assume that goes off on time, and everyone gets to spend the holiday at home with their family.
There isn't enough room in the integration building for both the SES LV and Thaicom at the same time, so the LV for Thaicom doesn't get rolled over until after the holiday. That makes it at least Dec 1 before integration really gets started. Hopefully, the strongback and flame trench don't need much repair after the previous launch. Looking to get all of this done in 3 weeks, on a launcher they are just getting used to will be a stretch. Since the CRS flight has already shifted to February, it would be better to schedule this for the first week of the year, but they really can't slip much further without affecting preparations for the CRS-3 flight.
Let's hope they aren't contractually bound to launch in 2013.
 

[Lars_J]

They are already trying to launch SES-8 just before Thanksgiving. Let's assume that goes off on time, and everyone gets to spend the holiday at home with their family.
There isn't enough room in the integration building for both the SES LV and Thaicom at the same time, so the LV for Thaicom doesn't get rolled over until after the holiday. That makes it at least Dec 1 before integration really gets started. Hopefully, the strongback and flame trench don't need much repair after the previous launch. Looking to get all of this done in 3 weeks, on a launcher they are just getting used to will be a stretch. Since the CRS flight has already shifted to February, it would be better to schedule this for the first week of the year, but they really can't slip much further without affecting preparations for the CRS-3 flight.
Let's hope they aren't contractually bound to launch in 2013.
 

With such a detailed knowledge of the flow requirement (and concern for SpaceX employees), surely you have some deep source for your ...concern? They will launch when they are ready.

Your deep concern for the SpaceX launch manifest is touching.   

[Lar]

They are already trying to launch SES-8 just before Thanksgiving. Let's assume that goes off on time, and everyone gets to spend the holiday at home with their family.
There isn't enough room in the integration building for both the SES LV and Thaicom at the same time, so the LV for Thaicom doesn't get rolled over until after the holiday. That makes it at least Dec 1 before integration really gets started. Hopefully, the strongback and flame trench don't need much repair after the previous launch. Looking to get all of this done in 3 weeks, on a launcher they are just getting used to will be a stretch. Since the CRS flight has already shifted to February, it would be better to schedule this for the first week of the year, but they really can't slip much further without affecting preparations for the CRS-3 flight.
Let's hope they aren't contractually bound to launch in 2013.
 

With such a detailed knowledge of the flow requirement (and concern for SpaceX employees), surely you have some deep source for your ...concern? They will launch when they are ready.

Your deep concern for the SpaceX launch manifest is touching.   

I found it a useful analysis. YMMV.

What they have on tap, 2 launches in a month, is tough. But things get worse... 5 launches, each a month apart, is even tougher.... even if they pull this off, it will be interesting to see how the flow gets sped up and stays sped up. And then sped up again in 2015.

[aero]

Has anyone heard anything more about a second SpaceX launch pad at the cape? They just may need one soon. Relatively speaking of course, WRT "soon."

[Lars_J]

Has anyone heard anything more about a second SpaceX launch pad at the cape? They just may need one soon. Relatively speaking of course, WRT "soon."

The LC-39A lease decision is due in December (I think) - SpaceX appears to be the front-runner for that. We should know soon.

[Roy_H]

So, with the successful launch of SES-8 all eyes turn to Thaicom-6.

I believe all parts have been shipped to Canaveral for a week now. Have they been hard at work putting some of the pieces together? Like mounting the satellite in the fairing. If I am correct they left the SES-8 on the pad since Friday, (or was it Thursday?) and I was wondering if part of the reason was because the hangar was already occupied by Thaicom's Falcon 9.

Anxiously waiting official launch date announcement.

Edit: Just realized this would be highly unlikely. There would be safety issues not allowing the rocket or satellite so close to the launch pad in case SES-8 exploded on the pad.

[Prober]

So, with the successful launch of SES-8 all eyes turn to Thaicom-6.

I believe all parts have been shipped to Canaveral for a week now. Have they been hard at work putting some of the pieces together? Like mounting the satellite in the fairing. If I am correct they left the SES-8 on the pad since Friday, (or was it Thursday?) and I was wondering if part of the reason was because the hangar was already occupied by Thaicom's Falcon 9.

don't see this as possible....wouldn't it be too close to the launcher?
 

[Roy_H]

... because the hangar was already occupied by Thaicom's Falcon 9.

don't see this as possible....wouldn't it be too close to the launcher?

Yes, just realized that an updated my post.

[QuantumG]

don't see this as possible....wouldn't it be too close to the launcher?

The hanger can hold more than one Falcon 9 and payload at a time, as we've seen in many pictures.

From what I've heard, both stages of the Falcon 9 for the Thaicom launch and the Thaicom satellite were in the hanger, right next to the launch pad, when today's flight launched.

I think Roy_H's question is merely whether or not they were "in the way" for rollback of the SES-8 flight. I don't think they were, but I haven't heard anything specific to that.

[Jim]

Like mounting the satellite in the fairing.

It is hasn't been loaded with prop yet

[Jim]

The hanger can hold more than one Falcon 9

Only one booster there is no room for another