Author Topic: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2  (Read 521124 times)

Offline IRobot

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #200 on: 03/14/2014 01:24 pm »
CST-100 is going to be a finalist
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Offline Prober

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #201 on: 03/14/2014 04:07 pm »
CST-100 is going to be a finalist
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good one ;D   Maybe Jim needs to add IMHO to his posts?
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #202 on: 03/14/2014 05:33 pm »
CST-100 is going to be a finalist

I agree with your other points. But how do you know that Boeing will be a finalist for CCtCap? If their price is out of whack with the rest of the competition, they are likely to be downselected. Apparently, NASA intends to ask more skin in the game from participants for the next round, that could also hurt Boeing if they are not willing to do so.

NASA is not budgeting for a down select.

What makes you say that? There is a discussion about extending CCiCap (by adding optional milestones) but I think that a downselection (likely to two providers) should still happen under CCtCap.

Offline manboy

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #203 on: 03/14/2014 05:36 pm »
CST-100 is going to be a finalist

I agree with your other points. But how do you know that Boeing will be a finalist for CCtCap? If their price is out of whack with the rest of the competition, they are likely to be downselected. Apparently, NASA intends to ask more skin in the game from participants for the next round, that could also hurt Boeing if they are not willing to do so.

NASA is not budgeting for a down select.
A down select is inevitable.
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Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #204 on: 03/14/2014 05:59 pm »
CST-100 is going to be a finalist

I agree with your other points. But how do you know that Boeing will be a finalist for CCtCap? If their price is out of whack with the rest of the competition, they are likely to be downselected. Apparently, NASA intends to ask more skin in the game from participants for the next round, that could also hurt Boeing if they are not willing to do so.

NASA is not budgeting for a down select.
A down select is inevitable.

I agree that with 2 flights per year, they need to down select to a single vendor.
We also don't know what price the vendors will charge for each flight.

We know it's NOT the $25M per seat that was advertised for flights to the non-existent Bigelow station.


Once they select the final vendors, and award CCT contracts, it should be easier to convince the vendors to commit to further funding, since the risk has been eliminated.



Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #205 on: 03/14/2014 06:12 pm »
We know it's NOT the $25M per seat that was advertised for flights to the non-existent Bigelow station.

At a NASA news conference on 18 May 2012, SpaceX confirmed again that their target launch price for crewed Dragon flights is $140,000,000, or $20,000,000 per seat if the maximum crew of 7 is aboard.
I am pretty sure I have seen other preliminary prices quoted several times.
Even if this was true, then there is even more reason to not down select until multiple competitors are ready to offer rides. Then you can choose the best offer and still have the others as a backup just in case.

Offline arachnitect

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #206 on: 03/14/2014 06:46 pm »
Jim is there room in Boeings design to use a "berthing" hatch if needed quickly in the future?

Any opinion if a cargo return version could quickly be put together (crash program) if needed?



No Room.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/autopia/2011/10/BoeingCST100d-660x311.jpg

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #207 on: 03/14/2014 08:47 pm »
Jim is there room in Boeings design to use a "berthing" hatch if needed quickly in the future?

Any opinion if a cargo return version could quickly be put together (crash program) if needed?



No Room.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/autopia/2011/10/BoeingCST100d-660x311.jpg

Indeed. CST-100 (and Orion) follow the Apollo design, which packs the parachutes very tightly around the docking tunnel. There simply isn't room in the design for something much bigger like a berthing hatch.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #208 on: 03/15/2014 11:42 am »
We know it's NOT the $25M per seat that was advertised for flights to the non-existent Bigelow station.

At a NASA news conference on 18 May 2012, SpaceX confirmed again that their target launch price for crewed Dragon flights is $140,000,000, or $20,000,000 per seat if the maximum crew of 7 is aboard.
I am pretty sure I have seen other preliminary prices quoted several times.
Even if this was true, then there is even more reason to not down select until multiple competitors are ready to offer rides. Then you can choose the best offer and still have the others as a backup just in case.

Yes that's the price that SpaceX has been stating. It's a bit hard to believe given that cargo Dragon is $133M per launch.  But maybe the F9R will allow SpaceX to reduce its prices. There will be some resemblance between cargo Dragon 2 and the crewed Dragon 2 which may provide economies of scale. Boeing's CST-100 price to the Bigelow station is $35M per seat (assuming that it has 7 crew on it).
« Last Edit: 03/15/2014 11:45 am by yg1968 »

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #209 on: 03/15/2014 02:16 pm »
And there aren't 7 passengers onboard flights to the ISS, so the cost model is incorrect.
 

Offline baldusi

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #210 on: 03/15/2014 03:30 pm »
Not necessarily, per craft is correct. And they'll send some cargo.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #211 on: 03/15/2014 06:25 pm »
Shuttle launched with a mostly full crew even when not strictly required. I know this has been rehashed so many times, but still.
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Offline Prober

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #212 on: 03/15/2014 06:28 pm »
We know it's NOT the $25M per seat that was advertised for flights to the non-existent Bigelow station.

At a NASA news conference on 18 May 2012, SpaceX confirmed again that their target launch price for crewed Dragon flights is $140,000,000, or $20,000,000 per seat if the maximum crew of 7 is aboard.
I am pretty sure I have seen other preliminary prices quoted several times.
Even if this was true, then there is even more reason to not down select until multiple competitors are ready to offer rides. Then you can choose the best offer and still have the others as a backup just in case.

Elon also said the same in front of Congress. 
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I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #213 on: 03/15/2014 09:06 pm »
And there aren't 7 passengers onboard flights to the ISS, so the cost model is incorrect.
There will be cargo in place of the crew members then, or maybe some tourist that is along for the ride (goes down in the same capsule with the previous expedition crew). Besides, it is still possible that the size of the ISS crew will increase. Either way, your original argument that "We also don't know what price the vendors will charge for each flight." is wrong, as we clearly do know what the price is and it is lower than the sum you mentioned if all seats are filled. Also want to point out that even if SpaceX charged three times as much for a seat (e.g. if there were only 3 people on board and no cargo) it would still be cheaper than a seat on the Soyuz that is currently at 70 million. For some reason some members of congress and you seem to have no problem with spending that much. I guess it ain't wasteful spendin' if the money goes to them Russians.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #214 on: 03/15/2014 09:59 pm »
ISS could possibly go to 7 crew, especially if extended to 2028 (which seems most likely) or even beyond. That'd mean at least 4 crew.
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Offline manboy

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #215 on: 03/15/2014 10:15 pm »
And there aren't 7 passengers onboard flights to the ISS, so the cost model is incorrect.
If you adjust it for four passengers it is still cheaper than Soyuz plus you get more up and downmass.

ISS could possibly go to 7 crew, especially if extended to 2028 (which seems most likely) or even beyond. That'd mean at least 4 crew.
The ISS is going to go to a seven person crew when the CCV starts flying but it is planned to only be used to transport a crew of four.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2014 10:20 pm by manboy »
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Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #216 on: 03/15/2014 10:45 pm »
A crew of 4 is still less than 40 million per passenger (assuming no cargo and no extra passengers on the flight). Still cheap compared to 70 million for the Russians.

Offline IRobot

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #217 on: 03/16/2014 02:58 pm »
A crew of 4 is still less than 40 million per passenger (assuming no cargo and no extra passengers on the flight). Still cheap compared to 70 million for the Russians.
Not only that, those are dollars that stay in America, a lot goes back to government in taxes and almost all of it stays in the US economy.

Also it is a political move. As an European, I don't understand how Americans tolerate that Russian dependency.

Offline IRobot

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #218 on: 03/16/2014 03:02 pm »
Could a 7 crew capsule replace the entire crew at once? Let's say there are 2 crew members that stayed for a year in the ISS and 5 others on a 6 months rotation.

A 7 members crew could be sent up, especially if some of the new crew members are on their 2nd or 3rd ISS flight, meaning it is not a 100% rookie team.

Of course if the Russians want to keep at least their 2 cosmonauts going up on Soyuz, that still leaves room for a 5 crew capsule, EU and US.

Offline RonM

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Re: Boeing's CST-100 capsule updates & discussion THREAD 2
« Reply #219 on: 03/16/2014 03:53 pm »
As an European, I don't understand how Americans tolerate that Russian dependency.

The original plan was to shutdown the shuttle program in 2010 and have Orion on Ares 1 ready by 2012. A two year gap wouldn't be bad. However, as we all know now, that was a terrible plan. So now we are stuck with buying seats from Russia because of our bad planning.

At least we only have to wait a few more years before Commercial Crew is operational. It could be done in two years if Congress gave NASA enough money.

CST-100, Dragon, and Dream Chaser are all good designs. Whichever one is selected will add new capabilities to the ISS. Larger crew rotations are possible. The big point is redundancy. Right now, if something grounds the Soyuz program for a protracted period, ISS will have to be abandoned.

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