Proton-M Failure Reaction and Discussion Thread - July 2, 2013

[owais.usmani]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

Leave conspiracy aside, but we know that Khrunichev charges ~100mill $ to ILS customers. Do we know how much the Russian govt pays Khrunichev for federal missions? Is it slightly less or is it "significantly" less? (I'm assuming Stan Black or anik would know the figure for latest contracts)

[Remes]

Anyway, the simple solution is for QC to look and verify each rate sensor arrow is pointing up. 

Which has been the same all the recent Russian failures. The design would work fine if only it were actually built right... 

Yes, if you can't test it somehow, simply look at it.

The reason why this is not as easy as it sounds: There are a few thousands part on a rocket which could be assembled wrong, which could be missing, wrong wired, wrong programmed, ... and every single one need to be looked at (I guess the gyro itself has a few hundred parts itself).

Now there are only a few launches per year, for Proton eleven in 2012. So with one month vacation it happens that every month exactly one time that someone goes to launchers and assembles (I assume) 6 of this gyros. then for 29 days the guy will do something else. Most likely there are 2 or 3 people who do the gyro assembly. So the responsible person will assemble the gyros every 2..3 month. What I'm trying to say: it's not a procedure which is done every day. It's not like there is a Pro who is so used to it that he could do this while sleeping.

That's really the difference between rocket business and any other industry: extreme complexity, low quantity, no second chance for any launch.

The way how the space-industry responds to that is by a tremendous detailed description of every single step, followed by a detailed documentation what was done followed by a test or double check. Which is one reason why space products are so expensive: You know the history every single part or component and what it went through.

For whatever reason the procedures seem to be neglected several times in the recent past. And I expect the final report on the investigation will mainly request more adherence to the processes in place.

[Ben the Space Brit]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

It doesn't have to be a conspiracy.  All it requires is for ILS to demand and verify stronger QC procedures on their products that the federal government either does not require or does not enforce or verify.

[smoliarm]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

>>and never on ILS missions?
Never?
E.g., during the period 2002-2008 there were 4 Proton failures, all happened with ILS launches.

>>Coincidence.
No, statistically it is not.
Accordingly to my records (which may be incomplete), during 1996 - present (first ILS launch was in 1996) there were:
68 federal launches of Proton with 8 failures (8/68 = 11.8 %);
84 ILS launches of Proton with 6 failures, of which 2 were "partial" failures. 6/84 = 7.1 %
Even if we disregard word "partial", the failure percentage is clearly in favor of ILS.
68 and 84 ARE big enough to make % difference statistically significant, and it does not matter which approach you take - chi-squared of Student - you'll get the same result.

>>How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions...
Well, one possible explanation is that state and ILS use different QA/QC protocols/procedures...

[Prober]

Anyway, the simple solution is for QC to look and verify each rate sensor arrow is pointing up. 

Which has been the same all the recent Russian failures. The design would work fine if only it were actually built right... 

color codes also would work. 

[Tcommon]

poor design then.....should be set to only install one way the proper one...

yes, should have been Poka-yoked

[Kabloona]

Another update from Anatoly Zak at russianspaceweb.com:

"On the Proton rocket multiple DUS sensors are clustered into modules called Blocks of Damper Gyroscopes or BDG in Russian. They are designed to provide navigational information to Proton's sophisticated multi-channel flight control system. A total of three BDG modules are mounted on a special platform on the body of the rocket. The evaluation of the recovered platform showed that three BDGs responsible for the pitch movement of the rocket were installed correctly, however all three BDGs responsible for the course axis were rotated 180 degrees. Since all three BDGs had been installed incorrectly, the three-channel flight control system could not filter out faulty data by comparing it to correct information coming from the majority of sensors.

The improper installation apparently required some considerable physical effort, which, somehow did not raise any alarm at GKNPTs Khrunichev's assembly plant in Moscow. Investigators immediately looked at already assembled Protons, including those in Baikonur, but did not find such an anomaly."

He talks about 3 BDG's for pitch and 3 BDG's for "course movement" which I assume means yaw. So the yaw gyros were all installed upside down.

The intrigue deepens with  the mention that the. improper install required "considerable physical effort." I'm not a conspiracy theorist, because generally the simplest answer is the truth, e.g. the guy who installed the gyros made an honest mistake.

But saying that the mistake required "considerable physical effort" could well raise some eyebrows.

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

Here's what Anatoly Zak has to say about QC:

"Also, Russian Vice Prime-Minister Dmitry Rogozin promised to make "hard conclusions" from the investigation, which among other things "would identify those who despite numerous government requests failed to deal with many issues of quality control," Rogozin said. According to Rogozin, the failed vehicle had been manufactured and delivered to Baikonur before his administration restored the military certification of rocket technology."

Here's an interesting look at the whole Putin defense-industrial complex following last year's Breeze M failure, with some insight into their QC woes:

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2012/08/22/meanwhile-back-on-planet-putin/#more-42034

[Stan Black]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

Leave conspiracy aside, but we know that Khrunichev charges ~100mill $ to ILS customers. Do we know how much the Russian govt pays Khrunichev for federal missions? Is it slightly less or is it "significantly" less? (I'm assuming Stan Black or anik would know the figure for latest contracts)

 I can no longer get the rosspending.ru website to show historical information. It did have the costs of the Uragan batches.

 For this launch I think I have only found the cost of the fairing plus a second piece without individual charges.

 Here is another breakdown to give an idea

Ekspress-AM4

Proton-M
1 123 000 000

Fairing
136 365 000

Delivery of Proton-M and fairing to launch site
23 378 000
 - based on cost for three, breakdown not available

Briz-M
348 900 000

Delivery of Briz-M to launch site
13 325 000
 - based on cost for two, breakdown not available

Launch campaign
570 000 000

[Remes]

Fairing
136 365 000

What do you mean by fairing? The payload fairing? It's 10% of the Proton-M?

[Antares]

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, because generally the simplest answer is the truth, e.g. the guy who installed the gyros made an honest mistake.

But saying that the mistake required "considerable physical effort" could well raise some eyebrows.

I've seen someone shove a second floppy disk into a drive that already had one in it.  I've also dispo'd paper for someone banging a dent out of flight hardware with their fist.  I've watched the NBA.

Brains are not required to exert considerable physical effort.

[Stan Black]

Fairing
136 365 000

What do you mean by fairing? The payload fairing? It's 10% of the Proton-M?

Головной обтекатель типа 14С75 и переходная система для запуска КА Экспресс-АМ4

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17568.msg1053683#msg1053683

[Kabloona]

I've watched the NBA.

Brains are not required to exert considerable physical effort.

Touche.

Though sometimes the considerable physical effort exerted while attempting to pound a square peg into a round hole causes the pounder to step back and wonder if something is wrong, and a light bulb goes on.

But apparently not in this case.

[russianhalo117]

The following is a link to my thread post with the latest Official FROB Update from ILS Management regarding the present situation and the preliminary ILS Plan moving forward: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31191.msg1073451#msg1073451

[Remes]

Fairing
136 365 000

What do you mean by fairing? The payload fairing? It's 10% of the Proton-M?

Головной обтекатель типа 14С75 и переходная система для запуска КА Экспресс-АМ4

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17568.msg1053683#msg1053683

Thanks. It's the fairing plus the payload adapter. Later beeing most likely a one off, containing the seperation mechanism, connections to satellite, etc.

Nevertheless the price surprises me. For one Breeze you can get 2 3*(Fairing+Payloadadapter).

[owais.usmani]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

Leave conspiracy aside, but we know that Khrunichev charges ~100mill $ to ILS customers. Do we know how much the Russian govt pays Khrunichev for federal missions? Is it slightly less or is it "significantly" less? (I'm assuming Stan Black or anik would know the figure for latest contracts)

 I can no longer get the rosspending.ru website to show historical information. It did have the costs of the Uragan batches.

 For this launch I think I have only found the cost of the fairing plus a second piece without individual charges.

 Here is another breakdown to give an idea

Ekspress-AM4

Proton-M
1 123 000 000

Fairing
136 365 000

Delivery of Proton-M and fairing to launch site
23 378 000
 - based on cost for three, breakdown not available

Briz-M
348 900 000

Delivery of Briz-M to launch site
13 325 000
 - based on cost for two, breakdown not available

Launch campaign
570 000 000

So if I haven't messed it up, it was ~68 million $ for Ekspress-AM4.

You get what you pay for, if I may add. 

[osiossim]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

Leave conspiracy aside, but we know that Khrunichev charges ~100mill $ to ILS customers. Do we know how much the Russian govt pays Khrunichev for federal missions? Is it slightly less or is it "significantly" less? (I'm assuming Stan Black or anik would know the figure for latest contracts)

According to the information on Russian Government Tender Agency Web Site;

1. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=5481090

Roscosmos pays 1.509.826.000,00 Rubles to winner company for the the Glonass launch until November 2015, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 46.332.691,98 US$ with today's currency.

2. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=3747953

Roscosmos pays 603.000.000 Rubles to winner company for the Glonass launch between July 2012-Novermber 2013, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 18.504.525,20 US$ with today's currency.


3. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=3232479

Roscosmos pays 1.436.560.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Glonass launch between May 2012-November 2014, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 44.084.346,14 US$ with today's currency.


4. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=492195

Roscosmos pays 4.044.202.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Express-AMU1, Express-AM7 and Luch-4 launches between May 2012-November 2014, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 124.106.198,71 US$ with today's currency.

5. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=2980421

Roscosmos pays 5.746.240.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Express-AM4R, Yenisei-A1, Spectrum-UV launches between April 2012-November 2014, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 176.337.384,55 US$ with today's currency.

6. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=5481433

Roscosmos pays 1.509.826.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Exomars launch between November 2015, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 46.332.691,98 US$ with today's currency.


...


Hope this gives you an idea about the different price tags for Russian satellite launches with Proton and commercial launches via ILS.

By the way, congratulations for Russian Government for being open and transparent on government tenders.

It is irrelevant with this topic but, the price difference between the Soyuz launches for Russian satellites from Baikonur and the Soyuz launches for commercial satellites from Korou is enourmous.

"Europeanized" Soyuz launches are is nearly 3-4 times more expensive than original Russian Soyuz launches. Poor customers have to pay a lot for the seat at" Europeanized" Soyuz.

But the answer is "European Quality or French Kiss" 

[Stan Black]

How come Proton QC issues always emerge on Russian federal missions, and never on ILS missions?

Coincidence. But that will undoubtly be questioned by the more conspiracy-oriented forum members here. 

Leave conspiracy aside, but we know that Khrunichev charges ~100mill $ to ILS customers. Do we know how much the Russian govt pays Khrunichev for federal missions? Is it slightly less or is it "significantly" less? (I'm assuming Stan Black or anik would know the figure for latest contracts)

According to the information on Russian Government Tender Agency Web Site;

1. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=5481090

Roscosmos pays 1.509.826.000,00 Rubles to winner company for the the Glonass launch until November 2015, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 46.332.691,98 US$ with today's currency.

2. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=3747953

Roscosmos pays 603.000.000 Rubles to winner company for the Glonass launch between July 2012-Novermber 2013, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 18.504.525,20 US$ with today's currency.


3. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=3232479

Roscosmos pays 1.436.560.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Glonass launch between May 2012-November 2014, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 44.084.346,14 US$ with today's currency.


4. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=492195

Roscosmos pays 4.044.202.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Express-AMU1, Express-AM7 and Luch-4 launches between May 2012-November 2014, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 124.106.198,71 US$ with today's currency.

5. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=2980421

Roscosmos pays 5.746.240.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Express-AM4R, Yenisei-A1, Spectrum-UV launches between April 2012-November 2014, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 176.337.384,55 US$ with today's currency.

6. http://zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=5481433

Roscosmos pays 1.509.826.000,00  Rubles to winner company for the Exomars launch between November 2015, with Proton-M. This amount is equal to 46.332.691,98 US$ with today's currency.


...


Hope this gives you an idea about the different price tags for Russian satellite launches with Proton and commercial launches via ILS.

By the way, congratulations for Russian Government for being open and transparent on government tenders.

It is irrelevant with this topic but, the price difference between the Soyuz launches for Russian satellites from Baikonur and the Soyuz launches for commercial satellites from Korou is enourmous.

"Europeanized" Soyuz launches are is nearly 3-4 times more expensive than original Russian Soyuz launches. Poor customers have to pay a lot for the seat at" Europeanized" Soyuz.

But the answer is "European Quality or French Kiss" 

There is multiple elements to each launch: rocket, upper stage, fairing, then delivery to launch site before the actual launch campaign

Proton & Briz
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17568.msg1053682#msg1053682
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17568.msg1053683#msg1053683

Edit: 5. above is for four rockets

[renclod]

Now there are only a few launches per year, for Proton eleven in 2012.

Compared to other launchers, 11 per year is a formidable launch rate.
At this rate, Proton builders should have excellent procedures in place and  training new workers should not be expensive.

[Danderman]

There is a rumor going around Russia that the Glonass sats were known not to work before launch (due to Federal funds being stolen), so the launch was sabotaged to prevent detection of the failed payloads.

[zaitcev]

Someone posts the same conspiracy theory again and again.

In fact ISS peeps say they are disappointed, because the smashed birds made up the first batch that passed checks without major redos and could probably hit the orbital lifetimes this time.