Author Topic: North Korean missile crisis of 2013  (Read 13716 times)

Offline mtakala24

North Korean missile crisis of 2013
« on: 03/28/2013 10:46 pm »
In another news, it has just been reported that North Korea has put their rockets into battle readiness.

Can someone point / link to a list of their rocket types, and whether they are launched from silos, or movable trucks, etc.?
« Last Edit: 04/07/2013 10:32 am by anik »

Offline ISNJH

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #1 on: 03/28/2013 11:05 pm »
Majority of DPRK rockets are road mobile TEL vehicles and are liquid fueled meaning they cant be kept on alert in a silo for long periods of times unlike solid based ballistic missiles..

Until there are any indication that missile launchers have started to be readied at bases and rocket fuel moved for the missiles and warheads taken from storage this is just bluster. Any such mobilizations esp a full activation of ballistic missile forces from bases would be spotted due to the heavy activity at bases and storage sites..

They have a number of Scud based ballistic missiles and this is  the main threat to South Korea since they do have a number of them that will pose a threat if enough can get through air defenses..

Offline jkumpire

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #2 on: 04/03/2013 06:15 pm »
Not trying to dig up an old thread or cause trouble, but I have a question with the recent noise from the Nuks:

The consensus is they can't launch a nuclear weapon on an ICBM class missile. My question; Are they advanced enough to launch chemical or biological weapons to Japan or US territory? Obviously they can shoot short-range stuff to Seoul, but why does the US send an Ageis destroyer to that part of the world if there isn't a threat? 
« Last Edit: 04/03/2013 06:18 pm by jkumpire »

Offline ISNJH

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #3 on: 04/03/2013 07:12 pm »
Part of the estimation about DPRK not being able to strike the US with a ICBM at this time is that any strike to do any damage would require a nuclear warhead, Nuclear warheads are a lot more heavy and means the missile has to lug that over a greater distance thus greatly decreasing the missiles range capability. Chemical warhead depending on type used could be lighter but would be less affective then a HE or more powerful warhead, it is believed that the DPRK could hit US bases on Guam but to be able to strike the US mainland with enough missiles to get through currently deployed missile defense assets its very unlikely.

Offline Targeteer

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #4 on: 04/03/2013 07:22 pm »
Not trying to dig up an old thread or cause trouble, but I have a question with the recent noise from the Nuks:

The consensus is they can't launch a nuclear weapon on an ICBM class missile. My question; Are they advanced enough to launch chemical or biological weapons to Japan or US territory? Obviously they can shoot short-range stuff to Seoul, but why does the US send an Ageis destroyer to that part of the world if there isn't a threat? 


The AEGIS destroyers have the ability to engage the missiles KN has so far launched which can reach Japan, Guam, and perhaps Hawaii.  They were in position (both US and Japanese) during the two recent tests in case the missiles headed towards Japan intentionally or accidentally.
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Offline plutogno

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #5 on: 04/03/2013 07:57 pm »
I think that part of the problem is that NK does not apparently have a working heatshield design-entry vehicle for an ICBM, regardless of what kind of weapon it is carrying

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #6 on: 04/03/2013 08:24 pm »
I think that part of the problem is that NK does not apparently have a working heatshield design-entry vehicle for an ICBM, regardless of what kind of weapon it is carrying
Why would DPRK need a re-entry vehicle. A polar orbiting EM pulse generation device would do. Almost all consumer electronics within range of the EM pulse will fry. In other words no cell phones, point of sale devices & ATMs. Plus most computers & tablets became fancy paper weights.

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #7 on: 04/03/2013 08:27 pm »
...
Obviously they can shoot short-range stuff to Seoul, but why does the US send an Ageis destroyer to that part of the world if there isn't a threat? 

Because the US Navy does not possess destroyers or cruisers without AEGIS anymore.

Offline bobthemonkey

Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #8 on: 04/03/2013 10:12 pm »
Also, not all AEGIS ships (even of the same class) have the BMD element enabled from a systems point of view, let alone active SM-3 rounds in their VLS batteries.

As it happens however, the John S McCain, the AEGIS destroyer referenced, is so equipped and forward based in Japan, so likely one of the closest ships in the area.
« Last Edit: 04/03/2013 10:15 pm by bobthemonkey »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #9 on: 04/04/2013 01:19 am »
And the SM-3 can not shoot down all ICBM profiles, it is possible to over fly it. Very hard to go high enough with a 21" solid rocket motor. There have been those who are saying it's better to build more of Orbital's larger Ground Based Interceptors than spending money on the SM-3 Block Ib's we promised Poland and Romania.

But I digress, the SM-3 Block 1A should be sufficient to intercept Japan bound missiles. The height of a Japan bound arc is not high enough to over fly an SM-3. The few GBI's we have should be sufficient to blunt a North Korean US bound ICBM launch. Though it does kinda leave Pearl Harbor hanging out there...
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Offline Yarrah

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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #12 on: 04/07/2013 05:19 am »
On the ABC Insiders program this morning the Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs commented that their might be a North Korean "missile test" on 15 April, the birthday of Kim Il Sung. This "missile test" might be another satellite launch attempt.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #13 on: 04/07/2013 03:23 pm »
On the ABC Insiders program this morning the Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs commented that their might be a North Korean "missile test" on 15 April, the birthday of Kim Il Sung. This "missile test" might be another satellite launch attempt.
The U.S. has delayed a Minuteman 3 test that had long been planned to fly on about the same date. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/ap-source-us-delays-minuteman-3-missile-test-amid-rising-tensions-with-north-korea/2013/04/06/c2bd5b3c-9f0a-11e2-9219-51eb8387e8f1_story.html

This could be viewed as (1) a sensible step to defuse tensions, (2) an act of cowardice since U.S. actions would have been modified by North Korean threats, or (3) the USAF deciding to commit all of its tracking assets toward a possible NK test - that, based on North Korean threats to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons, might or might not be a test.

This week will be dicey.

As for the RV question, NK has IRBMs, which presumably have RVs.  RV technology is well known (you can see them in museums and read about them on the Internet).  They have tested nuclear devices on more than one occasion.  We learned only after it flew that Unha 3 used vernier motor steering.  With that flight they proved more advanced in missilery than the experts believed.  I would not dismiss the ICBM possibility.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 04/07/2013 03:33 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Prober

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #14 on: 04/07/2013 03:55 pm »
On the ABC Insiders program this morning the Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs commented that their might be a North Korean "missile test" on 15 April, the birthday of Kim Il Sung. This "missile test" might be another satellite launch attempt.
The U.S. has delayed a Minuteman 3 test that had long been planned to fly on about the same date. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/ap-source-us-delays-minuteman-3-missile-test-amid-rising-tensions-with-north-korea/2013/04/06/c2bd5b3c-9f0a-11e2-9219-51eb8387e8f1_story.html

This could be viewed as (1) a sensible step to defuse tensions, (2) an act of cowardice since U.S. actions would have been modified by North Korean threats, or (3) the USAF deciding to commit all of its tracking assets toward a possible NK test - that, based on North Korean threats to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons, might or might not be a test.

This week will be dicey.

As for the RV question, NK has IRBMs, which presumably have RVs.  RV technology is well known (you can see them in museums and read about them on the Internet).  They have tested nuclear devices on more than one occasion.  We learned only after it flew that Unha 3 used vernier motor steering.  With that flight they proved more advanced in missilery than the experts believed.  I would not dismiss the ICBM possibility.

 - Ed Kyle

I would add that the focus on a pure nuke does not look at the possible use of a dirty bomb.
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: North Korean missile crisis of 2013
« Reply #15 on: 04/08/2013 12:42 pm »
Ed.

Thanks for pointing out option 3, that actually makes sense. I had been wondering if the delaying of the MinuteMan III test flight was a group of very green foreign policy people in the White House blinking and realizing countering North Korea tit for tat was only ratcheting things up.
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Offline sentinel

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Re: North Korean missile crisis of 2013
« Reply #16 on: 04/08/2013 01:57 pm »
Thanks for pointing out option 3, that actually makes sense. I had been wondering if the delaying of the MinuteMan III test flight was a group of very green foreign policy people in the White House blinking and realizing countering North Korea tit for tat was only ratcheting things up.

I think the delay is primarily a good will gesture towards Chinas repeated request to defuse the tensions. By simply delaying the MinuteMan III test flight a little bit North Korea's primary and only ally is now praising the USA and condemning North Korea.

If the tensions really escalate South Korea and the USA could handle any North Korean aggression. But if China gets military involved we could see a 1:1 repeat of the Korean war including 4 Mio. deaths. So if I would be in foreign policy I would stop focusing my actions directly towards North Korea (at the moment the won't listen anyway) and do my best to sour relations between China and North Korea.

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #17 on: 04/09/2013 11:08 am »
On the ABC Insiders program this morning the Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs commented that their might be a North Korean "missile test" on 15 April, the birthday of Kim Il Sung. This "missile test" might be another satellite launch attempt.
The U.S. has delayed a Minuteman 3 test that had long been planned to fly on about the same date. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/ap-source-us-delays-minuteman-3-missile-test-amid-rising-tensions-with-north-korea/2013/04/06/c2bd5b3c-9f0a-11e2-9219-51eb8387e8f1_story.html


The NBC Nightly news mentioned the delay last night and showed video of an Atlas 5 launch while talking about the Minuteman III test delay...  I think they at least had a Vandenberg launch so they got something right.   ???
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012
« Reply #18 on: 04/09/2013 03:10 pm »
On the ABC Insiders program this morning the Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs commented that their might be a North Korean "missile test" on 15 April, the birthday of Kim Il Sung. This "missile test" might be another satellite launch attempt.
The U.S. has delayed a Minuteman 3 test that had long been planned to fly on about the same date. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/ap-source-us-delays-minuteman-3-missile-test-amid-rising-tensions-with-north-korea/2013/04/06/c2bd5b3c-9f0a-11e2-9219-51eb8387e8f1_story.html


The NBC Nightly news mentioned the delay last night and showed video of an Atlas 5 launch while talking about the Minuteman III test delay...  I think they at least had a Vandenberg launch so they got something right.   ???
You will have to ask JimO about that one since he works for that organization.

Offline mtakala24

Re: North Korean missile crisis of 2013
« Reply #19 on: 04/10/2013 12:13 am »
I'm so happy to see me as the thread starter. Well done, moderators.

And the answer about the capabilities of different missiles was also posted via a link to a nice picture that does explain things a lot. Thank you.

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