Deep Space Industries vs Planetary Resources

[happyflower]

Remember: you're not as smart as you think you are.

Assuming other people are just dumb is a good way to write off ever learning anything new.

Well you didn’t explicitly say so, but since your post is right after mine I’ll assume you meant me. I don’t have to remember, I know I am not that smart. I am neither an aerospace engineer, nor a scientist, but simply a spaceflight enthusiast. By the way I didn't call or assumed anybody was "dumb".

If you mean that I should re-read DSI statement regarding this rock being worth 200 billion dollars I don’t have to. Their statement is simply wrong. It’s wrong and it makes them look less knowledgeable than they surely are.

You cannot simply calculate the cost of ore the way they did. Ore doesn’t process itself. You need workers to mine the ore, you need transportation to move the ore to processing facilities, you need processing facilities, you need security to protect your ore, and you need transportation infrastructure to get the ore to customers that need it. That final price is what you can quote minus all your expenses as value. Simply stating that a piece of rock that is hauling ass in space is worth 200 billion is just wrong. Sorry it is. Otherwise all of us on Earth are Gazillioners since the Earth is wroth a Gazillion dollars.

That rock is worth nothing as it stands right now. It’s just a rock that even DSI states they simply cannot reach even if they had everything in place. Hence “pie in the sky dreamers”.

[QuantumG]

If you mean that I should re-read DSI statement regarding this rock being worth 200 billion dollars I don’t have to. Their statement is simply wrong. It’s wrong and it makes them look less knowledgeable than they surely are.

Where did they make this statement?

Presumably you read the Forbes article:
 
   http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/02/13/no-asteroid-2021-da14-isnt-worth-195-billion-whatever-deep-space-industries-says/

but didn't bother following the link to The Register's article:

  http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/02/13/dsi_places_valuation_on_2012_da14/

to see what it was that was actually quoted. The Register is such a premier bastion of journalistic integrity that they didn't even bother to say who they were quoting or where or when the speaker was speaking. I happened to recognize that they're quoting Mark Sonter speaking at the DSI press conference. I also happen to remember that the context was the distant future where in-space markets are available. The Register's article actually tries to establish that context:

Not that DSI – or anyone else, for that matter – is quite ready to mine 2012 DA14. DSI plans to send its first FireFly probes to scout Near Earth Objects (NEOs) in 2015, to be followed by larger DragonFly probes in 2016, which will sample NEOs and return their booty to Earth, followed by actual mining operations beginning in 2020 – if all goes according to their ambitious plans, that is.

and even provides a breakdown of how the future in-space markets might make use of the material:

"According to DSI experts," those experts humbly contend, "if 2012 DA14 contains 5 per cent recoverable water, that alone – in space as rocket fuel – might be worth as much as $65 billion. If 10 per cent of its mass is easily recovered iron, nickel and other metals, that could be worth – in space as building material – an additional $130 billion."

The Forbes article is written by someone who read the first two paragraphs of The Register's article and then rushed off to write something derogatory and disingenuous.

[happyflower]

Well I was speaking for myself and I am still not sure what part of what I wrote is wrong. I have done enough business development that when a company makes such claims that I can see are not attached to current reality I tend to hold them suspect. It has saved me and the company I work for a lot of time and money. If they were talking hypothetically and in a possible future then great.

All I can say is I hope whoever makes $200 Billion from this rock, today or tomorrow or whenever enjoys their money in good health.

With your permission I wont hold my breath.

[QuantumG]

Well I was speaking for myself and I am still not sure what part of what I wrote is wrong.

Your claim that they said something they never said.

[happyflower]

Well I was speaking for myself and I am still not sure what part of what I wrote is wrong.

Your claim that they said something they never said.

http://www.space.com/19758-asteroid-worth-billions-2012-da14-flyby.html

"The space rock set to give Earth a historically close shave this Friday (Feb. 15) may be worth nearly $200 billion, prospective asteroid miners say."

"may harbor $65 billion of recoverable water and $130 billion in metals, say officials with celestial mining firm Deep Space Industries. "

""Deep Space Industries is being far too optimistic about this particular rock," Michael Busch, of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, told SPACE.com via email."

"Nick Moskovitz at MIT has obtained an IR spectrum of DA14, and it is an L-class object," he added. "That means a stony composition, made of iron-magnesium-silicates, and minimal water and accessible metal content. It also is not obvious how much the value of water and metal in Earth orbit would decrease with an increased supply."

"The company has no plans to go after 2012 DA14; the asteroid's orbit is highly tilted relative to Earth, making it too difficult to chase down. But the space rock's close flyby serves to illustrate the wealth of asteroid resources just waiting to be extracted and used, Deep Space officials said."

[mlindner]

Well I was speaking for myself and I am still not sure what part of what I wrote is wrong.

Your claim that they said something they never said.

http://www.space.com/19758-asteroid-worth-billions-2012-da14-flyby.html

"The space rock set to give Earth a historically close shave this Friday (Feb. 15) may be worth nearly $200 billion, prospective asteroid miners say."

"may harbor $65 billion of recoverable water and $130 billion in metals, say officials with celestial mining firm Deep Space Industries. "

""Deep Space Industries is being far too optimistic about this particular rock," Michael Busch, of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, told SPACE.com via email."

"Nick Moskovitz at MIT has obtained an IR spectrum of DA14, and it is an L-class object," he added. "That means a stony composition, made of iron-magnesium-silicates, and minimal water and accessible metal content. It also is not obvious how much the value of water and metal in Earth orbit would decrease with an increased supply."

"The company has no plans to go after 2012 DA14; the asteroid's orbit is highly tilted relative to Earth, making it too difficult to chase down. But the space rock's close flyby serves to illustrate the wealth of asteroid resources just waiting to be extracted and used, Deep Space officials said."

There is a difference between the words "if" and "may." I suggest you re-read what QuantumG quoted and see how it disagrees with what space.com stated.

[WiresMN]

You cannot simply calculate the cost of ore the
way they did. Ore doesn’t process itself. You need
workers to mine the ore, you need transportation to
move the ore to processing facilities, you need
processing facilities, you need security to protect
your ore, and you need transportation
infrastructure to get the ore to customers that need
it. That final price is what you can quote minus all
your expenses as value. Simply stating that a piece
of rock that is hauling ass in space is worth 200
billion is just wrong.

The monetary worth of this rock has nothing to do with the operational cost of extraction. It may be worth 200 billion, but it may cost more than that to extract. This happens all of the time in mining. The Backken oil field in North Dakota is only viable because oil is expensive.

If DSI is using similar calculations as PRI then it might be worth that much if it was available. PRI bases water price on the cost of launching it. Both companies are working on long timelines, 10 years on the extremely optimistic estimate. In that time we will hopefully have a need for water in large quantity in space.

Furthermore, during that time the platinum group metals are not going to go down rather they will go up due to higher usage. The same rock they estimate at 200 billion today could be worth a lot more in 10-20 years.

But really what the did was pick a rock that was getting media attention and spin the news to explain what they are about and why they are trying to mine asteroids. should they have said we plan to mine asteroids like the one zipping by earth.... but hey it has no value to anyone. Are you interested in our company?

[happyflower]

mlindner, to me the issue really isn’t ‘if’ or ‘may’. It’s not whether “if” this asteroid is worth $200 B. or this asteroid “may” be worth @200 B. The issue I have is the $200 Billion figure.

QG said “Your claim that they said something they never said”. Well what did I say that they never said? All I said is that DSI said this rock is worth $200 B. I showed him where I got my statement from.  After all $65 billion plus $130 billion is about $200 billion.

My statement was simply that value is not proven with any type of data and is a gross value anyway. You cannot as a company and in good conscious quote a gross number to people as the value without discussing your costs. If you just throw a number like $200 Billion around like pasta and see if it sticks you will lose a lot of credibility in the business world. Look I work in marketing and bus. Dev. And I understand making statements that will excite people and cause discussions and eyeballs on your site. Like WiresMN I think that’s all this was, but that sort of goes towards my conclusion.

I think I made a fairly reasonable conclusion based on what I read. If Space.com or Forbes, or theregister, or National Radio Astronomy observatory, or MIT have made false statements or misrepresented DSI in anyway then I guess they will have a lawsuit on their hands.

I could be proven wrong (and I will be happy to see DSI make 200 Billion now or in the near or far futures) and then I will retract my statement and take my lumps. Until such time I’ll stick with my conclusion which is simple: DSI has lost credibility to me. I still wish them all the success because it makes me happy to see US private companies working in space. I guess we will see.

[Carl G]

Stupid thread, with biased people making misrepresentations.

Locked.