SpaceX Falcon 9 : GPS III SV01 : SLC-40 : Dec. 23, 2018 - DISCUSSION

[nadreck]

I think that the actual bid price has to also do with the type of mission this contract is about. GPS sats can be horizontally integrated and don't need a lot of the "special stuff" in GSE or the pad that other, more "exotic" DoD payloads do.

Which means that the campaign itself would be less expensive than others. I expect to see a much bigger price for a F9 contract in the future if the payload needs vertical integration and special feeds or hardware..

And presumably the "expectation" from the Air Force on price (ie what it would have cost before competition) would be much higher too.  The real question to me is when do we get to see something like that up for bids?

[Dante80]

I think that the actual bid price has to also do with the type of mission this contract is about. GPS sats can be horizontally integrated and don't need a lot of the "special stuff" in GSE or the pad that other, more "exotic" DoD payloads do.

Which means that the campaign itself would be less expensive than others. I expect to see a much bigger price for a F9 contract in the future if the payload needs vertical integration and special feeds or hardware..

And presumably the "expectation" from the Air Force on price (ie what it would have cost before competition) would be much higher too.  The real question to me is when do we get to see something like that up for bids?

I think that the Air Force has to become more confident and..er..cozy with SpaceX before it commits for something a lot more expensive/important/special. SpaceX needs good and timely campaigns with the DoD before we move to that point imo..the GPS contracts are definitely an ideal starter though.

[AncientU]

The timeline for 'competitive' USAF payloads has 6-8 up for competition before the first launches in 2018, I believe.  USAF will have to watch commercial and CRS launches to inform their confidence.  I suspect a handful of these DoD payloads will be awarded to SpaceX before feedback from good and timely campaigns with the DoD.  We'll have to see if the payloads get much more complicated than GPS-III.

[Jim]

The timeline for 'competitive' USAF payloads has 6-8 up for competition before the first launches in 2018, I believe.  USAF will have to watch commercial and CRS launches to inform their confidence.  I suspect a handful of these DoD payloads will be awarded to SpaceX before feedback from good and timely campaigns with the DoD.  We'll have to see if the payloads get much more complicated than GPS-III.

wrong take away.  USAF hasn't been able to watch commercial and CRS launches like they watch ULA launches.

[AncientU]

The timeline for 'competitive' USAF payloads has 6-8 up for competition before the first launches in 2018, I believe.  USAF will have to watch commercial and CRS launches to inform their confidence.  I suspect a handful of these DoD payloads will be awarded to SpaceX before feedback from good and timely campaigns with the DoD.  We'll have to see if the payloads get much more complicated than GPS-III.

wrong take away.  USAF hasn't been able to watch commercial and CRS launches like they watch ULA launches.

So will USAF have to watch how SpaceX does the first GPS-III before they will award any other competitive launches?  If not, you've missed my point.

[Dante80]

So will USAF have to watch how SpaceX does the first GPS-III before they will award any other competitive launches?

That's not what I said btw. I said that they need more confidence before assigning something much more important to the LV. SpaceX will bid all competitive launches, what they will get though depends partly on this (especially since the contract details and the scoring procedure might change from one payload to the other).

[AncientU]

So will USAF have to watch how SpaceX does the first GPS-III before they will award any other competitive launches?

That's not what I said btw. I said that they need more confidence before assigning something much more important to the LV. SpaceX will bid all competitive launches, what they will get though depends partly on this (especially since the contract details and the scoring procedure might change from one payload to the other).

I agree with you. USAF will not be able to wait until SpaceX launches USAF payloads, simply because of the timing of when the next 6-8 competitions will happen with respect to this first GPS-III launch.  They will have to judge the SpaceX bids on something else, like a string of commercial/CRS failures*, for example.  I wouldn't be surprised if they do limit the awards to payloads where they have room to lose or replace the payload, and manage competition/allocate the expensive, one-of-a-kind payloads to ULA. 

USAF watching commercial launches from a distance (not as intimately involved with SpaceX as ULA launches) is still better than nothing.

* or possibly successes...

[deruch]

I know it wasn't an NSS launch, but SpaceX has already successfully completed 1 launch for the USAF: DSCOVR.  This launch won't be their first date.

[abaddon]

USAF watching commercial launches from a distance (not as intimately involved with SpaceX as ULA launches) is still better than nothing.

IIRC, SpaceX has said on several occasions that both the USAF and NASA get full and complete access to flight data.  Most notably during certification, and during the CRS-7 investigation.  "Not as intimately involved ... as ULA" is definitely correct, but "at a distance" is overstating things quite a bit.

[baldusi]

So why did not SpaceX bid $100 million?  It would have still won the contract...

For starters, the didn't knew (and I guess not even considered) that ULA would not bid. Second, making a very aggressive pricing on your competitor's only customer might be a death stroke. In fact, I guess they were worried about not opening themselves to a dumping lawsuit. But those are incremental launches that can be priced relatively low, and ULA really struggles if they can't launch 8 times per year. Since they have those huge fixed costs, stealing a couple of launches per year with the GPS bid might increase their prices as much as 30% and that will really put them in a very tight situation.

[Sam Ho]

Satellite delivery is being delayed by a few months to December 2016, because a capacitor in the payload wasn't properly qualified. Doesn't seem like it will affect the launch date, for which the ground segment seems to be still the pacing item.

http://spacenews.com/lockheed-martin-says-first-gps-3-satellite-delayed-until-december/

[Newton_V]

Doesn't seem like it will affect the launch date, for which the ground segment seems to be still the pacing item.

It already has.

[Sam Ho]

Doesn't seem like it will affect the launch date, for which the ground segment seems to be still the pacing item.

It already has.

I probably should have phrased that as that the ground segment issues have a good chance of causing the launch date to slip beyond the slip caused by the payload issue.

[russianhalo117]

RAYTHEON COMPLETES FACTORY QUALIFICATION TESTING OF NEXT-GENERATION GPS LAUNCH AND CHECKOUT SYSTEM
System closer to delivering capabilities that will enhance GPS
AURORA, Colo., Jan. 17, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) reached another milestone in developing the U.S. Air Force Global Positioning System Next-Generation Operational Control System, known as GPS OCX, with the completion of the Factory Qualification Test of the Launch and Checkout System (LCS). GPS OCX will unleash dramatically increased performance and security of the GPS system that benefits millions of people worldwide.

Raytheon tested 74 OCX segment requirements at its Aurora, Colorado, factory in a cyber-hardened environment, verifying that the LCS is well on its way to meeting U.S. Air Force requirements. Next, the remaining OCX segment requirements will be qualified in a retest period, and those requiring external interfaces will be qualified onsite at Schriever Air Force Base prior to delivery of the overall OCX LCS in 2017. The final phase of testing – Site Acceptance Testing – will follow the delivery of the system.

"The completion of the Factory Qualification Test proves we can meet the U.S. Air Force requirements and are on a path to delivering the OCX LCS in 2017," said Bill Sullivan, vice president and program manager for Raytheon's GPS OCX. "This critical system will enable the launch of the GPS III satellites, which represents the first major capability deployment in the U.S Air Force's effort to modernize GPS."

The Factory Qualification Test achievement builds upon other OCX milestones achieved in 2016, including:

- Completion of Black Wide Area Network testing of unclassified external interfaces for GPS OCX with perfect scores on mission capability and cyber controls
- 100 percent requirements pass rate on Electro-Magnetic Interference testing on the OCX Monitor Station Receiver Element, or OMSRE
- Successful Critical Design Review for OMSRE hardware development
- Completion of the LCS component-level qualification test
- Risk-reduction testing functional checkout for the OCX ground system software, demonstrating OCX's capabilities for precision navigation and timing in a fully cyber-hardened environment

The U.S. Air Force-led GPS Modernization Program will yield new positioning, navigation and timing capabilities for U.S. military and civilian users across the globe. Developed by Raytheon under contract to the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, GPS OCX is replacing the current GPS operational control system and will support the launch of the GPS III satellites. The new system will provide enhanced performance, the effective use of modern civil and military signals and secure information-sharing with unprecedented cyber protection.

About Raytheon
Raytheon Company, with 2015 sales of $23 billion and 61,000 employees, is a technology and innovation leader specializing in defense, civil government and cybersecurity solutions. With a history of innovation spanning 94 years, Raytheon provides state-of-the-art electronics, mission systems integration, C5I™ products and services, sensing, effects, and mission support for customers in more than 80 countries. Raytheon is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts. Follow us on Twitter.

Media Contacts
Raytheon
Michelle Lammers
+1.720.858.5777
[email protected] 

To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/raytheon-completes-factory-qualification-testing-of-next-generation-gps-launch-and-checkout-system-300391513.html

SOURCE Raytheon

[beidou]

Has this been deferred into early 2018?

[Newton_V]

Has this been deferred into early 2018?

You got the wrong year..

[beidou]

You got the wrong year..

Why was I wrong?

The plan remains to launch the first GPS III satellite by spring of 2018.

“Lockheed Martin is working closely with the Air Force on resolving any concerns about the mission readiness of SV01’s Propulsion Subsystem,” Eschenfelder said. “We are confident that this review will not delay the Air Force’s planned spring 2018 Initial Launch Capability (ILC).”

http://gpsworld.com/lockheed-responds-to-report-on-air-force-review-of-gps-iii-propulsion/

[Newton_V]

You got the wrong year..

Why was I wrong?

The plan remains to launch the first GPS III satellite by spring of 2018.

“Lockheed Martin is working closely with the Air Force on resolving any concerns about the mission readiness of SV01’s Propulsion Subsystem,” Eschenfelder said. “We are confident that this review will not delay the Air Force’s planned spring 2018 Initial Launch Capability (ILC).”

http://gpsworld.com/lockheed-responds-to-report-on-air-force-review-of-gps-iii-propulsion/

You might not be.  But I'm gonna bookmark my post and come back to it in a year.

[WHAP]

My vote is for 2019 as well.  That assumes "the first GPS III satellite" is GPS III-01. 

[gongora]

Just ran across this article from last month
[2017-02-08] Bloomberg: Lockheed Hit by U.S. Air Force for More GPS III Satellite Flaws

...
The Air Force has decided to accept the first satellite even if its capacitors may be flawed because removing them could delay the delivery until October and cost about $70 million, Teague wrote to the congressional staff. The Air Force is confident in the first satellite’s overall reliability based on 3,000 hours of cumulative testing, Teague said.

The Air Force will have to pay to replace the suspect capacitors on the second and third satellites. ...  In an Air Force list of priorities that lacked funding for this year, the service said it needed $100 million for GPS III “capacitor repair/replace.”