Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GPS III SV01 : SLC-40 : Dec. 23, 2018 - DISCUSSION  (Read 203714 times)

Offline 2megs

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 169
  • Liked: 385
  • Likes Given: 66
To return to this area needs approximately 18 hours. Despite of today's next planned attempt, this fairing carrier is still waiting in this port - indicates, that apparently due to the weather is today's launch clearly not on his schedule.

The storm moving up the U.S. East Coast today involves some impressive offshore winds. Even if they stay under the limits at the launch site, recovering intact fairings may have been unlikely to succeed and/or hazardous to attempt.
« Last Edit: 12/20/2018 10:35 am by 2megs »

Offline Jarnis

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1314
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 204
They sure getting a lot of re-use out of this expendable booster, at least as far as SpaceX webcasts go.

 :P

Offline Elthiryel

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 434
  • Kraków, Poland
  • Liked: 1009
  • Likes Given: 13037
It looks like GPS III SV01 is going to be the first flight with new COPVs in both stages.

https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1075777466323460103

I thought Hans already said this back on Dec. 5th when CRS-16 launched, no?  Why is this sticking in my head that this isn't new information?

(Posting in the update thread as I'm not certain this is an update vs. a publication of information we were told 2 weeks ago.)

I think he only said that during the previous flight the new COPVs were on the second stage only, there was no reference to the next flight.
GO for launch, GO for age of reflight

Offline ChrisGebhardt

  • Assistant Managing Editor
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7842
  • ad astra scientia
  • ~1 AU
  • Liked: 7877
  • Likes Given: 853
It looks like GPS III SV01 is going to be the first flight with new COPVs in both stages.

https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1075777466323460103

I thought Hans already said this back on Dec. 5th when CRS-16 launched, no?  Why is this sticking in my head that this isn't new information?

(Posting in the update thread as I'm not certain this is an update vs. a publication of information we were told 2 weeks ago.)

I think he only said that during the previous flight the new COPVs were on the second stage only, there was no reference to the next flight.

I thought he had.  Maybe that was after was the cameras were off (sometimes there's a perk to being there in-person, but that can create issues of what's public and what isn't).  Either way, he did say the previous 2 counted toward NASA's 7.
« Last Edit: 12/20/2018 05:16 pm by ChrisGebhardt »

Offline kessdawg

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 175
  • Liked: 328
  • Likes Given: 1567
Will the potential shutdown affect Saturday's scheduled launch?  If so, is that partly why SpaceX tried to launch this morning when they knew weather would likely not cooperate?

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10438
  • US
  • Liked: 14355
  • Likes Given: 6148
Will the potential shutdown affect Saturday's scheduled launch?  If so, is that partly why SpaceX tried to launch this morning when they knew weather would likely not cooperate?

Any partial government shutdown shouldn't affect NSS launches.  Not sure about other launches.

Offline drnscr

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 112
  • Liked: 128
  • Likes Given: 38
DOD FY19 appropriation bill signed and has been enacted...  not sure about NASA

Offline kessdawg

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 175
  • Liked: 328
  • Likes Given: 1567

Offline mlindner

  • Software Engineer
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2928
  • Space Capitalist
  • Silicon Valley, CA
  • Liked: 2240
  • Likes Given: 827
Air Force Magazine
Quote
“For this first flight, we’re going through making sure we’re taking care of the spacecraft … Everything we do, we’re making sure we treat it safely,” said Walter Lauderdale, mission director of SMC’s launch enterprise systems directorate. After launch, he said USAF, Lockheed Martin, and SpaceX will “come back together as a team and look for opportunities to see if we can get performance back that will enable SpaceX to recover their vehicle.”
...
Whitney said he anticipates OCX Block 1, which would enable M-Code capability, to be delivered in the 2021-2022 timeframe.

Once launched it could take as long as six to nine months to check out the satellite on orbit and then another six to nine months to integrate the GPS III satellite with the rest of the constellation, officials said.

I read this quote differently.  They are concerned about the spacecraft, treating it with kid gloves.  Then after launch, USAF and LM will look for performance gains.  Those two organizations are not in a position to increase the performance of the F9, only the payload.  Thus it appears to me that either they doesn't know what the satellite's propulsion performance will be, they aren't happy with their numbers and think they can do better on the next version, or they are prepared to increase the time for orbital maneuvers to be more fuel efficient.

I don't know how else the team would be able to "get performance back".  Get it back from where?

This is Government contracting/systems engineering funny talk. It got drilled into my head in the brief time I had to deal with it. Basically when you design the system you add lots of buffer into all the values, even if they're very well characterized, you pretend you're being lied to effectively. You pretend everything is 30%+ more inefficient/costly/underperforming/etc than it actually says it is. You then "get performance back" by testing things to see how much you were "lied to". This is what I believe the Air Force is doing here as they're so stuck in this way of thinking. They additionally seem to be ignoring any data that they haven't collected themselves.
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline Semmel

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2178
  • Germany
  • Liked: 2433
  • Likes Given: 11922
They additionally seem to be ignoring any data that they haven't collected themselves.

That fits exactly what we see. Not sure if its actually a correct statement, but they treat this like the first launch of the system where they dont know the margins.

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10438
  • US
  • Liked: 14355
  • Likes Given: 6148
They additionally seem to be ignoring any data that they haven't collected themselves.

That fits exactly what we see. Not sure if its actually a correct statement, but they treat this like the first launch of the system where they dont know the margins.

They're not just treating the launcher that way.  They're also treating the payload that way.

Offline Skylab

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 477
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 55
Does anyone have the limits for upper level winds at hand? That seems to be the only concern today (so far).
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 12:05 pm by Skylab »

Offline ugordan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8560
    • My mainly Cassini image gallery
  • Liked: 3628
  • Likes Given: 775
Does anyone have the limits for upper level winds at hand? That seems to be the only concern today (so far).

It's likely it's not the max wind speed that's the limiting factor, but wind shear that could affect vehicle controllability.

Online Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
Does anyone have the limits for upper level winds at hand? That seems to be the only concern today (so far).

It's likely it's not the max wind speed that's the limiting factor, but wind shear that could affect vehicle controllability.
That's certainly true. Does anyone have the limits for the upper level winds at hand? (including wind shear limits?)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline ugordan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8560
    • My mainly Cassini image gallery
  • Liked: 3628
  • Likes Given: 775
It's unlikely that anyone outside of SpaceX will have that data as it's really down to the mission profile and what the vehicle can steer through at different Q environments (i.e. it's not a fixed limit related to wind shear, but also how much drag the atmosphere imparts on the vehicle at that point in the trajectory). They probably run the actual wind profile through their hardware in the loop simulation to see if the vehicle can successfully fly through without tumbling and breakup given the control response delays and other characteristics specific to the vehicle.

On a different note, is it me or did this webcast have a significantly lower bitrate than the other ones? There were severe compression artifacts showing at the full 1080p quality.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 01:27 pm by ugordan »

Online Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
Interesting that they took the count to T-0:29 even after calling an abort for winds. Must have wanted to test out the out of family sensor fix to make sure it was really fixed.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline ZachS09

  • Space Savant
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8494
  • Roanoke, TX
  • Liked: 2416
  • Likes Given: 2103
General weather for tomorrow's attempt:

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/fl/kennedy-space-center

High of 67 degrees, low of 44 degrees, 10% chance of rain, light and variable ground winds, mainly sunny skies. Obviously doesn't state anything about upper level winds.

However, I think this website might determine the upper level winds for tomorrow's attempt.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/windtemp/data?date=
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 01:45 pm by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline pospa

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 214
  • Pardubice, CZ
  • Liked: 295
  • Likes Given: 804

Offline ugordan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8560
    • My mainly Cassini image gallery
  • Liked: 3628
  • Likes Given: 775
Answering to my own question, it appears the high compression artifacts as of late have been down to YouTube, not SpaceX-specific. Some other streamers have also noted it on their webcasts.

Online Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
It's unlikely that anyone outside of SpaceX will have that data as it's really down to the mission profile and what the vehicle can steer through at different Q environments (i.e. it's not a fixed limit related to wind shear, but also how much drag the atmosphere imparts on the vehicle at that point in the trajectory). They probably run the actual wind profile through their hardware in the loop simulation to see if the vehicle can successfully fly through without tumbling and breakup given the control response delays and other characteristics specific to the vehicle.
A fan dedicated enough to do the analysis could probably derive some data by looking at the history of all the scrubs, the mission characteristics, and what the upper level winds actually were (if that's available data). Interesting to see if there were trends there.
Quote
On a different note, is it me or did this webcast have a significantly lower bitrate than the other ones? There were severe compression artifacts showing at the full 1080p quality.
I thought it was my dodgy cable company but I noticed it too, the auto resolution selection wanted to do 140 or some small number like that....
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1