Why September 2014 for first CEV flight?

• Why September 2014 for first CEV flight? by mr.columbus on 30 Jun, 2006 20:53
• That's more than 8 years. Is there a schedule anywhere online that in detail shows the necessary development and testing schedule for Ares 1 and CEV from now until Sept 2014?
• #1 by nacnud on 30 Jun, 2006 21:09
• Not yet, according to the press conference any way. It's not yet been writen.
• #2 by Scotty on 30 Jun, 2006 23:00
• First CLV test flight is wishfully scheduled for late 2009, and first maned flight in 2011.
  So we are talking only about 3 1/2 years from now!
  But do not hold your breath on that schedule being kept.
  
• #3 by mr.columbus on 30 Jun, 2006 23:21
• 
  During NASA's Exploration Update Briefing today they specifically mentioned September 2014 as first manned flight of the CEV (I think it was Steve Cook). So because they specifically state a target month of 2014 rather than a vague range of years (2013-2014), I am curious whether they actually have a detailed development and testing plan up and running by now.
• #4 by noname_77065 on 30 Jun, 2006 23:45
• I'm just surprised. I know Griffin wanted to have the CEV ready not too long after the shuttle is retired. I guess that plan fell apart.
• #5 by nacnud on 30 Jun, 2006 23:48
• I think the delay was cause by the switch to 5-seg booster and the J2-X engine.
• #6 by kraisee on 01 Jul, 2006 01:18
• Quote

  nacnud - 30/6/2006  7:35 PM
  
  I think the delay was cause by the switch to 5-seg booster and the J2-X engine.

  
  6 years of development was possible with no new engines needing to be developed (using revised SSME and standard 4-seg SRB).   But a combination of NASA's budget for developing the CLV has been more restricted than originally planned, and given that a virtually brand-new J-2X engine is now in the mix too, the time required to develop this vehicle has to increase.
  
  Even then, 8 years isn't bad in this business.   The EELV program started in May 1994, downselected in 1996 to the final two contractors; Lockheed and McDonnel (who later became part of Boeing), yet the first EELV rocket launches didn't happen until August 2002 (Atlas) and November 2002 (Delta).   That's over 8 years of development for an unmanned launcher with no requirement for any crew safety facilities.
  
  Ross.
• #7 by Scotty on 01 Jul, 2006 02:12
• No, there really is a schedule that is being worked to right now; that has the first test flight scheduled for late 2009, and the first maned flight in 2011.
  The first three test flights will be made with 4 segment SRB's and a dummy or inert upper stage and CEV.
  The fourth flight will be with a full up CEV and 5 segments, but will be unmaned.
  The fifth flight may be a repeat unmaned flight, or the first manned flight; depending upon how flight four goes.
  Now do I believe said schedule will pan out, that is another story.
• #8 by zinfab on 01 Jul, 2006 03:11
• If that's true, Gregg, then saying Sept 2014 gives them some Project Management padding...
• #9 by astrobrian on 01 Jul, 2006 03:32
• Tis better to pad now than look bad later.
• #10 by PurduesUSAFguy on 01 Jul, 2006 04:37
• I know I was shocked too when I watched that video and heard the 2014 date, my guess is that it's a combination of the set back due to the switch to the five segement SRB and budget issues. I'd guess you'll see that accelerate if/when more money becomes avalible. What we really need to do is get the elephant of our backs and get rid of the shuttle sooner then 2010.
• #11 by kraisee on 01 Jul, 2006 05:09
• It's more the budget squeeze going on in NASA and the change from SSME to J-2X causing the timing delays.   The 5-seg has fundamentally already been test fired three times, and so is actually well on the way to being qualified for flight.   It is expected to be ready well ahead of the J-2X from what I'm hearing.
  
  But I thoroughly agree that Shuttle is THE big problem for NASA.
  
  I liked the subtle way Griffin commented rather pointedly today that the 2010 Shuttle timeline was established before he became Administrator - I'd love to have heard another sentence from him following that one.   From all that I've heard, he'd prefer to move into the new program early, but the decision was made above his position and before he was in control.
  
  I think that he could have too if some attention had been given to launching ISS components on the new CaLV instead.   I also think the international partners would have been placated if an extra ISS module were planned which would expand ISS capabilities much further by launching a CaLV-derived "SkyLab"-style module designed to extend the final station's lifespan beyond 2016.   As it is the international partners will get a finished station for just 6 years.   After that there's little to no further support from the US.      With a promise to extend the ISS's lifespan to 2020 or 2025 I think the US could have bought support for a delay now.
  
  Ross.
• #12 by Jim on 01 Jul, 2006 14:32
• Quote

  kraisee - 1/7/2006  12:56 AM
  
  I also think the international partners would have been placated if an extra ISS module were planned which would expand ISS capabilities much further by launching a CaLV-derived "SkyLab"-style module designed to extend the final station's lifespan beyond 2016.
  
  Ross.

  
  Another billion dollar development? and more to integrate it in the ISS.  No way.  ESA and Japan are paying to maintain grounded hardware.  They don't want to wait, they want it up now.
• #13 by bad_astra on 01 Jul, 2006 17:17
• An air-start SSME might have taken more time then a J2-X.
• #14 by Scotty on 01 Jul, 2006 18:36
• An air startable SSME would he a big redesign effort.
  The SSME has a number of chill down issues that would habe been difficult to do under free fall conditions.
  
• #15 by mr.columbus on 01 Jul, 2006 20:16
• Quote

  Gregg - 30/6/2006  9:59 PM
  
  No, there really is a schedule that is being worked to right now; that has the first test flight scheduled for late 2009, and the first maned flight in 2011.
  The first three test flights will be made with 4 segment SRB's and a dummy or inert upper stage and CEV.
  The fourth flight will be with a full up CEV and 5 segments, but will be unmaned.
  The fifth flight may be a repeat unmaned flight, or the first manned flight; depending upon how flight four goes.
  Now do I believe said schedule will pan out, that is another story.

  
  Gregg, is that new information - it seems to be the timetable that went through the media last year when Griffin stated that he would really like to close the gap between STS-phaseout and first launch of the CEV? Maybe it is just me, but if a NASA official in a press conference speaks of a specific date for the first manned launch of the CEV, I would be rather astonished that he is actually outright lying and the internal schedule would be 3 years ahead of that date.
• #16 by Scotty on 01 Jul, 2006 20:26
• I wish I could post the schedule, but I can not.
  I think he miss-spoke, as even the local paper this morning is talking about a late 2009 test flight.
• #17 by bad_astra on 02 Jul, 2006 06:20
• The 2009 test flight is Hoss or whatever they end up calling Little Joe's successor.
• #18 by Jim on 02 Jul, 2006 12:33
• Quote

  bad_astra - 2/7/2006  2:07 AM
  
  The 2009 test flight is Hoss or whatever they end up calling Little Joe's successor.

  
  Little Joe III if they keep with tradition.  But the actual LV is yet TBD
• #19 by edkyle99 on 02 Jul, 2006 14:54
• Quote

  bad_astra - 2/7/2006  1:07 AM
  
  The 2009 test flight is Hoss or whatever they end up calling Little Joe's successor.

  
  Are you talking about the 4-segment with dummy 5th segment/upper stage/payload test flight that was mentioned during the briefing?  Steve Cook, I think it was, said that that test launch could occur in 2009.  Mr. Hanley(sp?) said that Pad 39B was the strongest contending launch site for that first "Ares I" (or perhaps it should be called "Ares 0.5") test.
  
  They also said that launch abort systems testing would most likely take place at White Sands, where the Little Joe tests were done.  I don't recall mention of a first LAS test date.
  
   - Ed Kyle
• #20 by edkyle99 on 02 Jul, 2006 15:02
• Quote

  Gregg - 1/7/2006  3:13 PM
  
  I wish I could post the schedule, but I can not.
  I think he miss-spoke, as even the local paper this morning is talking about a late 2009 test flight.

  
  The 2009 test flight, a test and date that has yet to be officially approved, would involve a 4-segment SRB with a 5th dummy segment stacked on top of the other four segments, with the SRB topped by a dummy upper stage and payload.  This flight would presumably test the new roll control system and overall aerodynamics, etc.  The flight would most likely take place from Pad 39B, but Pad 40 is still under consideration.  This would be the first of a series of unmanned Ares I test flights.
  
  Horowitz or Hanley(sp?) or Steve Cook said the the first manned CEV flight would not occur until September 2014.  Before that mission happens, unmanned test flights would test the new five-segment booster, the new J-2X power upper stage, and for the new CEV.    The development schedule seems to be constrained by funding.
  
   - Ed Kyle
• #21 by Scotty on 02 Jul, 2006 15:24
• Read what I posted.
  It is the real schedule.
  The first tests of the CEV launch escape system will likely take place at White Sands as stated.
  Schedule calls for that to happen the last half of 2009.
  The first test flight at KSC will be 4 segments, a dummy second stage, and a boiler plate CEV with a live CEV launch escape system.
  The test flight will end with a mock abort at SRB burn out.
  Thus it will be a high speed, high alitude test of the launch abort system.
  Dig!
  All of the above is public record!
• #22 by zinfab on 02 Jul, 2006 18:31
• Quote

  No, there really is a schedule that is being worked to right now; that has the first test flight scheduled for late 2009, and the first maned flight in 2011.

  
  

  Quote

  Horowitz or Hanley(sp?) or Steve Cook said the the first manned CEV flight would not occur until September 2014.

  Project Management padding? I wonder if the public is paying enough attention to remember Griffin's 2012 PUSH or even hear the 2014 date Friday evening. I'd sure like to know what the difference is here. As a fan, I've got "go" fever most days.
• #23 by bad_astra on 02 Jul, 2006 20:20
• 2014 is a few congressional elections away. That date is meaningless at the moment. Still, it's extremely lethargic. Funny to think we developed three manned vehicles within less then a decade.
  
  We came close to doing that in the 90's too. Sticking with the stick at least gives them grounds for taking so long. "the booster people aren't ready" "the capsule people aren't ready" "the LES people aren't ready". If you liked the ISS you'll LOVE Project Constellation.
• #24 by publiusr on 07 Jul, 2006 17:48
• Quote

  kraisee - 30/6/2006  11:56 PM
  
     I also think the international partners would have been placated if an extra ISS module were planned which would expand ISS capabilities much further by launching a CaLV-derived "SkyLab"-style module designed to extend the final station's lifespan beyond 2016.
  Ross.

  
  A very good idea.