Golden Spike announce Phase A for commercial lunar landing missions

[joek]

If I've read it properly, their whitepaper suggests only two lunar lander options:
1. Pressurized with no airlock.
2. Unpressurized.
Does anyone think either will attact much business?  Neither seem very attractive... The first means no EVA, no boots, footprints, flags, samples, setting up of this-or-that, etc.*  The latter seems dubious from s usability and safety perspective, with severe limitations on surface time and activities.

* edit: Never mind.  As Proponent points out below, an airlock is not needed.

[Proponent]

The Apollo LM had no airlock, yet EVA was possible.  Just depressurize the cabin.

[joek]

The Apollo LM had no airlock, yet EVA was possible.  Just depressurize the cabin.

Yes; good point; silly me; doh; facepalm.

[Nelson Bridwell]

To peasants like us, a billion dolalrs is a staggering amount of money.  But to the federal goverments it equates to half of a B-2 bomber, a microscopic 0.0002 of the federal budget.

Are there goverments that could afford to pay for a lunar mission?  Yes.
Are these goverments willing to pay for a lunar mission in times of such great financial turmoil?  Only time will tell.

And if Phase "A" is the development of an inexpensive taxi service to the Lunar surface, basic, no-frills transportation, then what is Phase B?

Going back to the original article, several weeks ago:
 
"The architecture would then grow into the company’s long-term ambitions to establish a man-tended outpost using inflatable modules."

If there is any geopolitical market for flags and boots, imagine how much stronger the business case could be if, a few years later, there was a fair-sized permanent habitat waiting for them on the surface where scientists and explorers could live and work for months in relative comford.  And imagine how attractive it would be if some years later there was a Lunar Electric Rover or two...

[simonbp]

So 50 kg isn't shabby, being comparable to the early Apollo returned sample masses.

At $1.5B that is very expensive. Even if they removed the crew and replaced it with samples.

No, it's actually not. Moonrise was a JPL proposed New Frontiers-class mission at about $1 billion, and would only have returned 1 kg of lunar material. And that would have been a random grab sample of gravel wherever it happened to land. Hand-collected samples of interest are much more valuable, which why certain Apollo samples are much more in demand than the rarer Soviet Luna samples.

$1.5 billion for 50 kg of samples and the deployment of a surface station (Stern's "GoLDSTP") is a bargain compared to what JPL would charge to do it robotically.

http://www.planetaryprobe.eu/IPPW7/proceedings/IPPW7%20Proceedings/Presentations/Session7B/pr516.pdf

[Robert Thompson]

Osiris Rex sample cost is 1b per 2kg @ >> 3.5 by old chondrite / organics / seeds of astrobiology. If { 45kg sample return / 2kg per lot = } 22 groups or universities chipped in {got grants, etc for 1.5b / 22 = } 68m, they'd each get a 2kg actual sample. UA and co spent 450m for Phoenix, which for instance could represent 6 such shares and 12kg. Of the groups that want lunar samples, Aitken basin is favored, and seems within this capability. Broad science from such a sample. One pilot, one geologist. Largest share gets dibs on geologist. Have a plan for most efficient use of time to retrieve most scientifically promising samples. Some limited , tasteful , brand sponsorship.

www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/leag2012/presentations/Jolliff.pdf

[Robert Thompson]

Agh. Snooze you lose.

[Nelson Bridwell]

[Blackstar]

$1.5 billion for 50 kg of samples and the deployment of a surface station (Stern's "GoLDSTP") is a bargain compared to what JPL would charge to do it robotically.

Except that the development cost is far more than $1.5 billion. Stern was clear that it would require multiple billions to get to the first mission. So your first 50 kilograms might cost $8 billion, and your second 50 kilograms might cost only $1.5 billion, or $9.5 billion for 100 kilograms. Hard to see how that is a bargain.

And why does anybody believe these numbers? I listened carefully and never heard anybody state who did their cost estimates. Were they done by an independent assessment team that has a reputation for producing accurate cost estimates?

[Nathan]

And if Phase "A" is the development of an inexpensive taxi service to the Lunar surface, basic, no-frills transportation, then what is Phase B?

That is not what "Phase A" means.

You might want to look that up.

That's not a good manner in which to address someone. Why not be helpful and provide a link to the relevant definition?

[Gene DiGennaro]

Everyone says the lander reminds them of a puppy dog. I see the forward fuselage of a Bell 47.

[sdsds]

If these folk were using NASA terminology, they would likely be referring to NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 7123.1A. Attached is Figure 5.2, showing "The NASA Project Life Cycle."

Phase A is "Concept and Technology Development." It ends with key decision point B, which is where project leadership decides whether to proceed to phase B, which would be "Preliminary Design and Technology Completion." Don't be in a hurry, though. You don't get to actually launch anything until the end of phase D....

[Rocket Science]

I guess some folks forgot this little gem of inspiration...

http://www.geschichteinchronologie.ch/atmosphaerenfahrt/17_simulation-centers-Langley-Houston-ENGL.html
(forget all the “hoax talk” in the link...)

Some of you might of heard of that nice fellow in the middle of the picture immediately below...

[sanman]

Everyone says the lander reminds them of a puppy dog. I see the forward fuselage of a Bell 47.

Ohh, so that thing's a forward canopy. I thought we were looking at it head-on, and that the bubble was some kind of weird sidecar or something.
Think of Bill The Cat from Bloom County.



Actually, compared to Bill The Cat, a puppydog is an improvement.

[Warren Platts]

There 2 countries, China and Russia, that have the capability for launching people into space right now. Not counting the USA, I count astronauts from 30 nations (not counting 8 nations from the former USSR) that have historically flown into space despite the fact that they lack the capability to launch humans into space. The United States itself currently is paying hundreds of millions of USD to hitch rides on Russian spacecraft. Therefore, it is historically crystal clear that people have no qualms about riding on other peoples' spacecraft. Thus, the GSC plan to attract customers from 20+ national space programs is actually conservative.

[Warren Platts]

I guess some folks forgot this little gem of inspiration...

Good catch!   

[jabe]

looking for a bigger version of the picture found at http://goldenspikecompany.com/our-business/transportation-architecture/ can't seem to find it on the site..i has to be there i figure
jb

[KelvinZero]

Despite mention of tourism and other countries,

(a) this only makes any sense to me if the primary customer is the american government. (The value to that particular government is so obviously larger than any other, and that particular government has historically had the most money for such ventures)

(b) If all-american commercial companies can agree to take on all the financial risk, I think the american government is broken if doesn't accept a zero-financial risk proposition of "1.x b per trip, pay only on delivery"

Ive heard it is difficult to to bind future congresses to pay for something, but on the other hand if there were general support now (no one party shouting "We won't pay!") then I think it would be very difficult for a later government to back out.. by that time, with billions spent by the various investors, many many jobs would be involved and there could not be the usual budget blowout backlash justification. (unless of course the companies fail to deliver)

What would give me a lot of encouragement now would be statements by the various companies suggested in the architecture that they are prepared to bet money that they can pull this off, given some  unnamed Nice Altruistic Space Advocate is willing to pay 1.x b per trip.

[Warren Platts]

If the Golden Spike architecture were actually built, wouldn't the NASA be legally required to buy their services?

[sandrot]

Took a look at their blog. Three admin posts. No replies. Looks like there is a surge in enthusiasm.