Author Topic: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)  (Read 348688 times)

Offline mlindner

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #20 on: 11/19/2012 10:21 am »
Interview with elon musk done by BBC soon before/after the RAeS talk:
BBC News: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk: 'Europe's rocket has no chance'

Most of the standard talking points he usually uses. Mentions some fighting words to Arianespace, as quoted in the news article title. Says that Falcon v1.1 is cheaper than Falcon v1.0. Unclear whether this is in absolute cost or $/m3. 10-15 years to humans on Mars, quality increases with production amounts (in regards to Falcon and Merlin), etc
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #21 on: 11/19/2012 01:13 pm »
Well, considering SpaceX moved the Merlin-1D turbo pumps in house, that in and of itself should result in a measurable cost savings.
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #22 on: 11/19/2012 02:39 pm »
Elon Musk: With Jobs Gone, Google Will Win mobile (And Look Out For The Hyperloop)

http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/19/elon-musk-with-jobs-gone-google-will-win-mobile-and-look-out-for-the-hyperloop/

Various titbits about SpaceX here, nothing really new.

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #23 on: 11/19/2012 04:58 pm »
Elon's piss off list:

Banking industry - check.
Rocket industry - check.
Car industry - check.

yawn.

hmmm... aha - Airplane manufacturers and Airliners - ooo yeah!
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Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #24 on: 11/19/2012 06:22 pm »
Very likely to be a 12 ft diameter tank, but too short to be a F9 tank, nor Grasshopper.

http://i.imgur.com/iOUkb.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/UDp9n.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/kf29F.jpg

I get a kick out of the energy shown in these threads.  Hope the next SpaceX type company gets some of these high energy people.

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Offline stone

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #25 on: 11/19/2012 08:07 pm »
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk: 'Europe's rocket has no chance'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20382025

Big advertising! Great show. He only thing he has to do is deliver!

He has to be that chaep. He has to lift a full dragon to orbit. The absolute new 1.1 must perform and be reliable........

I think he will do a good job, but he will suffer from all people making the big advertising. He advertises vor 200% and we will get 100%. This will make life for Ariane 5 and 6 difficult, but no chance is a litlle much.

Offline RocketmanUS

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #26 on: 11/21/2012 12:14 am »
If a customer pays in full for a Falcon 9 launch how long does it take SpaceX to get the F9 to the launch pad and ready for launch?

Are they or have they planned on keeping and F9 v1.1's on hand to be ready for a customer to launch sooner?

( I was reading  somewere about Delta II being kept ready within 30 days to launch for DoD ).

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #27 on: 11/21/2012 03:59 am »

( I was reading  somewere about Delta II being kept ready within 30 days to launch for DoD ).

It was 60 days and only for GPS.  The long pole is not launch vehicle build but integration.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #28 on: 11/21/2012 01:28 pm »
If a customer pays in full for a Falcon 9 launch how long does it take SpaceX to get the F9 to the launch pad and ready for launch?

Are they or have they planned on keeping and F9 v1.1's on hand to be ready for a customer to launch sooner?

( I was reading  somewere about Delta II being kept ready within 30 days to launch for DoD ).
NLS II contract usually is L-30 month. If I remember correctly, the CRS is 21 months, with a premium for less time with 12months left as "to negotiate". But Dragon is already fully integrated to the Falcon 9. The 2009 User Guide states no less than 18 months prior to launch for authority to proceed. But again, that's very tight for payload integration and verification. And I'm pretty sure they've learned a lot about operations since then.

Offline mr. mark

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #29 on: 11/23/2012 09:43 pm »
Got to hand it to Elon Musk, here's the newest Falcon 9 design.... 9v1.2?
Saw this on the Tesla Motors Facebook page.....
« Last Edit: 11/23/2012 09:44 pm by mr. mark »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #30 on: 11/25/2012 03:00 am »
Got to hand it to Elon Musk, here's the newest Falcon 9 design.... 9v1.2?
Saw this on the Tesla Motors Facebook page.....
You are off topic ;)
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Offline Chris-A

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« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 06:31 am by Chris-A »

Offline Jason1701

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #32 on: 11/25/2012 06:34 am »
Odd that the video is posted to some random account.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #33 on: 11/25/2012 08:12 am »
Odd that the video is posted to some random account.

Here is the same video from the spacexchannel:

Offline mlindner

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #34 on: 11/25/2012 12:57 pm »
Odd that the video is posted to some random account.

I think its the account of a SpaceX employee or their PR people. Via google I've found they have other private videos on the account (non viewable).
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Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #35 on: 11/25/2012 03:22 pm »
So regarding Dragons....

This is actually very obvious, and has been bugging me for a while.

SpaceX are very early to put up engineering development hardware on display (F1, F9, Dragon).

Also, once they started talking publicly about powered recovery of F9S1, Grasshopper was up in no time, and is now even flying.

They have Dragon, and they've been testing SuperDracos for quite some time now.

...  so where's Dragon 2?   There was a mockup on display, but nothing more.

I think all of this got reconciled when Elon said - "We didn't really know what we were doing with Dragon 1" and "Dragon 2 will look really cool", etc.

I think once Elon decides on a change in direction, he doesn't waste time on sunk-cost projects just because they're half-way through the engineering pipeline.

My tea-leaf reading from this is that the possibility that Dragon 2 has been greatly revised away from Dragon 1 + SuperDracos, and the conspicuously missing Dragon/Draco test-bed hopping around McGregor are in agreement here.


EDIT:  Copied into Dragon thread
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 09:38 pm by meekGee »
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #36 on: 11/25/2012 04:18 pm »
So regarding Dragons....

This is actually very obvious, and has been bugging me for a while.

SpaceX are very early to put up engineering development hardware on display (F1, F9, Dragon).

Also, once they started talking publicly about powered recovery of F9S1, Grasshopper was up in no time, and is now even flying.

They have Dragon, and they've been testing SuperDracos for quite some time now.

...  so where's Dragon 2?   There was a mockup on display, but nothing more.

I think all of this got reconciled when Elon said - "We didn't really know what we were doing with Dragon 1" and "Dragon 2 will look really cool", etc.

I think once Elon decides on a change in direction, he doesn't waste time on sunk-cost projects just because they're half-way through the engineering pipeline.

My tea-leaf reading from this is that the possibility that Dragon 2 has been greatly revised away from Dragon 1 + SuperDracos, and the conspicuously missing Dragon/Draco test-bed hopping around McGregor are in agreement here.



I appreciate your reasoning and I too stumble over that contradiction between Dragon 2 is the manned Dragon for ISS-access and it is completely different to the present cargo Dragon.

But SpaceX has the CCiCap contract to meet and is in competition with Boeing on this. Do you really see they can have a completely new Dragon ready in time?

And convince NASA to accept this complete turnaround?


Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #37 on: 11/25/2012 05:44 pm »
I can't tell for sure, but IMO SpaceX is more likely to go with "direct-to-new-design"

A regular contractor would basically be thinking "I've already invested in this design, I need to book revenue on it" - the usual over-applied cliches - "the enemy of good is better", "walk before you run", etc.

SpaceX is thinking "Since we now know better, proceeding further with this design becomes a diversion - the more we invest in it, the bigger the detour from the path we now want to take" and so they chalk off the current design as a learning experience and move on as fast as possible.

They're also thinking "We've got a head start - a good way to spend it is to allow a major iteration where the competition can't afford it."

Mind reader, I have become!    Accurate?   we'll see.

I can tell you that till a few days ago, I was sure they'll do an upgraded Dragon (as shown in the video/mockup - very similar to the current one, but with SDs)  But with Elon, you often can't tell  whether he's talking about the hardware that's about to fly, or the hardware that he's currently envisioning for a few years down the road.
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Online corrodedNut

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #38 on: 11/25/2012 06:20 pm »
Dragon 2? Dragonrider? Crew Dragon? IMO they're probably all the same thing.

The crew trials from earlier this year suggest that the "new" Dragon will not have a drastically different mold-line, at least, not on the inside. If, as Elon says, the SuperDracos are much larger than previously depicted, and closer together on the "sides", it may well have a distinctly different exterior apperance. Imagine 4 large pods bulging from either side. Other major features that could change its apperance are the deployable landing legs, if they moved to the exterior rather than through the heat shield, and forward facing windscreens, if they are deemed nessessary.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2012 06:35 pm by corrodedNut »

Offline go4mars

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 7)
« Reply #39 on: 11/25/2012 06:33 pm »
A regular contractor ... "the enemy of good is better",

SpaceX is thinking "Since we now know better, proceeding further with this design becomes a diversion - the more we invest in it, the bigger the detour from the path we now want to take" and so they chalk off the current design as a learning experience and move on as fast as possible.
This is most especially true in the context of Mars colonization as their central goal. 

The why/how/what hierarchy arises again.  In my opinion, the why (Mars) is far more decisive and potent a reason to switch paths midstream than competitive concerns like below:
They're also thinking "We've got a head start - a good way to spend it is to allow a major iteration where the competition can't afford it."
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