How long before NASA can use commercial space flight?

[nec207]

How long before NASA can use commercial space flight to pay it way up into space with out going to Russia?

I hear that spaceX will be doing this very soon has they are taking up cargo now but not humans but going to be doing this very soon.

What other private sectors will be taking humans up into space in the next 5 years or so that NASA could go with?

[Lee Jay]

Probably around 2016-2017.  CCiCAP was awarded to Boeing (CST-100), SpaceX (Dragon), and Sierra Nevada Corporation (Dream Chaser).

[spectre9]

The answer to the question is this year when Dragon berthed with ISS.

If the question is : How long before NASA can use HUMAN commercial space flight?

The answer is now. Just not with a LAS.

When can they get a LAS working?

When one is built and tested (and funded) all of which has not happened yet but should be sometime before 2016 when I believe the current Soyuz contract runs out.

[spectre9]

Well now I think I'm wrong.

NASA was using commercial launches from ULA and Orbital for unmanned payloads long before Dragon.

They still count as commercial I guess.

[john smith 19]

What other private sectors will be taking humans up into space in the next 5 years or so that NASA could go with?

You need to look at the CCiCAP (Cargo Crew integrated CAPability)
For cargo to ISS, now.

For humans. when (and if) Dragon, Boeing CTS100 and SNC Dream Chaser are built/certified to carry them.

The only yardstick I had was Musk's comment they could legally carry humans on Dragon with a working Launch Escape System and that would take 36 months to develop. NASA funding awarded April 2011. So (in theory) by April 2014 they should be ready for a flight test under CCiCAP, by which time Spacex should have clocked up a fair number of cargo flights. In *theory* they could start with the next re-supply after that.
Note this *all* depends* on things like NASA funding (which in tern depends on the US legislature and its interesting "decision making" process) and agreements with foreign governments.

*Bottom line. If you live in the US and you want it to go faster contact the person on your local Congressmans  staff who deals with space and NASA and get them to support what Obama's request for funding CCiCAP was rather than what Congress and the Senate they gave it last time.

That way you'll get crewed Dragon flying sooner and hopefully get the pace of CTS-100 and SNC Dream Chaser accelerated.

*Of course as a non US citizen I would not want to be thought to be unduly influencing the decision making progress of a sovereign nation. 

[Ben the Space Brit]

How long before NASA can use commercial space flight to pay it way up into space with out going to Russia?

From this, I'm assuming that you are talking specifically about human space-flight (HSF).  The answer to that is that NASA is already politically committed to using commercial crew vehicles for ISS crew operations.  SpaceX have already said that their goal is to be operational by 2016 and there are two other crew vehicles in development whose LV is already more than 90% extant and operational (Atlas-V-4x2).

YMMV, of course and always.  However, personally I see that FY2016-7 as the very latest date we'll see the first test flights.  The momentum really is too strong at the moment.

[A_M_Swallow]

As for landing things on the Moon, that will happen when NASA produces a space rated Morpheus lander - say in 3 to 4 years time (~2016).

Morpheus mass is 500kg payload + 1000kg lander + ~2900kg propellant = ~4400kg

It would need something like an EELV to put 4,400kg through trans lunar injection.

[Jim]

As for landing things on the Moon, that will happen when NASA produces a space rated Morpheus lander - say in 3 to 4 years time (~2016).

There are no plans for that

[A_M_Swallow]

As for landing things on the Moon, that will happen when NASA produces a space rated Morpheus lander - say in 3 to 4 years time (~2016).

There are no plans for that

Plans can exist without being published.

[Jim]

As for landing things on the Moon, that will happen when NASA produces a space rated Morpheus lander - say in 3 to 4 years time (~2016).

There are no plans for that

Plans can exist without being published.

That only applies to outsiders like you. 
My point still stands.

[mr. mark]

The only commercial/NASA Spaceflight frame work is CRS and future manned LEO. Anything beyond that is pure speculation. I'd personally like a lot less speculation and concentrate on near term commercial vehicles already in the pipe like Falcon 9v1.1, Falcon Heavy and continued work at Vandenburg and at the cape. That is far more interesting than dreaming up SpaceX Mars plans and looking at Space Elevators.  

[nec207]

How long before NASA can use commercial space flight to pay it way up into space with out going to Russia?

From this, I'm assuming that you are talking specifically about human space-flight (HSF).  The answer to that is that NASA is already politically committed to using commercial crew vehicles for ISS crew operations.  SpaceX have already said that their goal is to be operational by 2016 and there are two other crew vehicles in development whose LV is already more than 90% extant and operational (Atlas-V-4x2).

YMMV, of course and always.  However, personally I see that FY2016-7 as the very latest date we'll see the first test flights.  The momentum really is too strong at the moment.

Yes that what I was talking about what other private sectors other than SpaceX that NASA or the UK can use to send people into spacee.

I believe SpaceX and virgin galactic are going to be doing LEO next year  and may be 10 years out or more they may do beyond LEO.

[mr. mark]

2015 for SpaceX LEO. Virgin SS2 cannot fly to orbit only suborbital but, they should be doing powered test flights this year to suborbital.

[nec207]

2015 for SpaceX LEO. Virgin SS2 cannot fly to orbit only suborbital but, they should be doing powered test flights this year to suborbital.

Are there plans for Virgin SS3 that may fly to orbit in 5  years or so?

[Khadgars]

2015 for SpaceX LEO. Virgin SS2 cannot fly to orbit only suborbital but, they should be doing powered test flights this year to suborbital.

Are there plans for Virgin SS3 that may fly to orbit in 5  years or so?

Pretty sure Virgin is sticking with suborbital

[OpsAnalyst]

The answer to the question is this year when Dragon berthed with ISS.

If the question is : How long before NASA can use HUMAN commercial space flight?

The answer is now. Just not with a LAS.

When can they get a LAS working?

When one is built and tested (and funded) all of which has not happened yet but should be sometime before 2016 when I believe the current Soyuz contract runs out.

A flight-tested ECLSS would be nice (ask the Russians about that one). In fact a fully integrated human flight test article would be nice.  Full integration and test of all Dragon-with-human-in-the-loop-ground-to-space C&C systems would be nice.

Humans are not simply "biological cargo" (reminds me of the old "spam in a can" Mercury-era comment) and the answer is not "now, except for a LAS".

Space X's projected date is 2015, as another poster said.  SpaceX has yet to meet any of its dates - I don't fault it for that, this is a far more complicated business than folks know until they try it.  I think NASA is estimating 2016. 
Boeing and SNC are talking 2016-2017.

ISS 'end date' is 2020 per current program planning. Discussions with the Hill about extension need to start in earnest by next year (this year, really, since OMB will be delivering passbacks for 2014 in the near future).  Discussions with the International Partners have been underway for a while.

ISS lifetime has direct bearing on all this which is why I include it.

[IRobot]

SpaceX first crewed flight will be done with SpaceX crew, so they can actually do it as soon as they feel like it. My guess is the first demo crewed flight will be somewhere in 2015 but NASA might take it slow and start commercial flights in 2016 with NASA Astronauts.

And if SpaceX does succeed in doing a test flight in 2015, that won't be good for Boeing, Sierra and even Orion... so putting it on 2016 will "fix" that!

[Ben the Space Brit]

2015 for SpaceX LEO. Virgin SS2 cannot fly to orbit only suborbital but, they should be doing powered test flights this year to suborbital.

Are there plans for Virgin SS3 that may fly to orbit in 5  years or so?

Virgin are developing an expendable satellite launcher that will be carried to high altitude under the White Knight-2 carrier aircraft.  There is also an advanced propulsion program underway so there may eventually by an LEO-capable SS3.  However, I would not expect to see it even as an engineering mock-up before 2020.

[manboy]

How long before NASA can use commercial space flight to pay it way up into space with out going to Russia?

Probably not until 2017 assuming that the ISS gets extended past 2020 and Congress doesn't continue to underfund the program.

I hear that spaceX will be doing this very soon has they are taking up cargo now but not humans but going to be doing this very soon.

The earliest SpaceX plans to launch humans is in mid-2015 but that date will probably slip. Currently that mission is planned to see Dragon launched into a 200-nautical-mile (370-km) orbit with a crew of three non-NASA personnel for a three day long mission.

What other private sectors will be taking humans up into space in the next 5 years or so that NASA could go with?

NASA's Commercial Crew program is the reason why these companies have the money to develop these crewed systems. The current funded competitors are Sierra Nevada's Dream Chaser, Boeing's CST-100 and SpaceX's Dragon.

[erioladastra]

The answer to the question is this year when Dragon berthed with ISS.

If the question is : How long before NASA can use HUMAN commercial space flight?

The answer is now. Just not with a LAS.

Not even close.  There is a great deal of work to do before the Dragon is man ready.  You need a viable life support system.  This includes space suit support in the case of a depress during launch.  You need a comm system, one that also works in space suits.  You need seats/couches for the crew - something that will support during launch, landing and aborts. You need systems that can allow the crew to manually pilot the vehicle in emergencies.  You need all of these to be suitable reliable and redundant.  All of this is not there today and will take time to design, test and build.   

[IRobot]

You need systems that can allow the crew to manually pilot the vehicle in emergencies.

I was under the impression that there would be no flight yoke. How much control will the crew have? Just touch screens?

[erioladastra]

You need systems that can allow the crew to manually pilot the vehicle in emergencies.

I was under the impression that there would be no flight yoke. How much control will the crew have? Just touch screens?

They will be required to provide manual piloting for all phases of flight except for ascent.  How that is implemented is company specific.  I doubt anyone has touch screens (too hard to work in bumpy flight or zero g) but perhaps.

[beancounter]

You need systems that can allow the crew to manually pilot the vehicle in emergencies.

I was under the impression that there would be no flight yoke. How much control will the crew have? Just touch screens?

They will be required to provide manual piloting for all phases of flight except for ascent.  How that is implemented is company specific.  I doubt anyone has touch screens (too hard to work in bumpy flight or zero g) but perhaps.

It's not a 'requirement'.  Dragon has demonstrated total autonomy both up and downhill, with the exception of docking which was handled by the on-station crew.  Soyuz can do everything autonomously and has done so.
So, again, manual piloting is not a 'requirement' unless NASA astronauts need it to justify being pilots, just a 'nice to have'.

[joek]

It's not a 'requirement'.  Dragon has demonstrated total autonomy both up and downhill, with the exception of docking which was handled by the on-station crew.  Soyuz can do everything autonomously and has done so.
So, again, manual piloting is not a 'requirement' unless NASA astronauts need it to justify being pilots, just a 'nice to have'.

Soyuz also still has manual control capability.  They don't keep that simply because it is a "nice to have", or because cosmonats need it to justify a particular skill set.

[majormajor42]

How long before NASA can use commercial space flight to pay it way up into space with out going to Russia?

While that option may exist in a few years (2016?), NASA may send astronauts up on both a US commercial craft like Dragon and continue to send one on each Soyuz craft. A little added redundancy to maintain the American presence on ISS. Not yet clear if Russians will get a seat on each Dragon too.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

You need systems that can allow the crew to manually pilot the vehicle in emergencies.

I was under the impression that there would be no flight yoke. How much control will the crew have? Just touch screens?

They will be required to provide manual piloting for all phases of flight except for ascent.  How that is implemented is company specific.  I doubt anyone has touch screens (too hard to work in bumpy flight or zero g) but perhaps.

Manual control is a little bit of a misnomer, it reffers to the source of steering commands of human via hand controlers vs a computer program. In both cases the computers are still involved since it is a fly-by wire system.