Private Moon Landing in the works?

[Nelson Bridwell]

Could the reason for the manned landing and outpost be to provide a stronger legal footing for fending off a Chinese claim to ownership of the Moon than unmanned operations would permit?

[Jim]

Could the reason for the manned landing and outpost be to provide a stronger legal footing for fending off a Chinese claim to ownership of the Moon than unmanned operations would permit?

It has nothing to do with the Chinese.  Repeating over and over doesn't make it true.

[Nathan]

Given that Alan Stern is likely involved, could golden spike or whatever this commercial system is simply be an early UWingu project?

That might make some sense.

It doesn't make sense to me.

You can't pay for a moon landing program on the profits from 99 cent suggest-a-planet-name transactions.

My guess is Uwingu will fund some grad students, maybe a cubesat if they can get a free launch.  The scales are off by several orders of magnitude.

The name a planet thing isn't the objective of UWingu, rather they are looking at multiple projects.
I'm suggesting that they may simply do a small project like "design a way to get to the moon" or "help us fund the design stage" or something unimpressive like that.

The names tie in, Alan stern, doug Griffith.

I expect that we will be underwhelmed when we finally figure this out.



And can we all stop the talk about china. It's boring.

[Nelson Bridwell]

It has nothing to do with the Chinese.  Repeating over and over doesn't make it true.

Do share with us your inside information that supports your claim, Jim...

[Oberon_Command]

It has nothing to do with the Chinese.  Repeating over and over doesn't make it true.

Do share with us your inside information that supports your claim, Jim...

You're the one advancing the claim that this has anything to do with China. As far as I can tell, this puts the burden of proof on you.

What evidence do you have that this has anything to do with China?

[KelvinZero]

It has nothing to do with the Chinese.  Repeating over and over doesn't make it true.

Do share with us your inside information that supports your claim, Jim...

You're the one advancing the claim that this has anything to do with China. As far as I can tell, this puts the burden of proof on you.

What evidence do you have that this has anything to do with China?

But dont put your evidence here! Here is the right thread to discuss chinese interest in the moon.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30360.0

This is not the right thread for that subject.

[Nelson Bridwell]

You're the one advancing the claim that this has anything to do with China. As far as I can tell, this puts the burden of proof on you.

What evidence do you have that this has anything to do with China?

You're the one advancing the claim that this has anything to do with China. As far as I can tell, this puts the burden of proof on you.

What evidence do you have that this has anything to do with China?

To rule something out requires evidence.  Do you have any?

If you watch the Bigelow video I posted, he is very alarmed about potential Chinese ownership of the Moon.  He is the only real game in town as far as inflatables, and has designs for manned lunar outposts.  So he is very probably a player in Golden Spike.

The China ownership issue could possibly be a major driving force, and is an interesting topic unto itself.  However, independent threads do not constitute justification for censorship.  This is the USA, not China.

[RocketEconomist327]

<snip>

If you watch the Bigelow video I posted, he is very alarmed about potential Chinese ownership of the Moon.  He is the only real game in town as far as inflatables, and has designs for manned lunar outposts.  So he is very probably a player in Golden Spike.

<snip>

My emphasis.  While it makes logical sense that Bigelow would be involved in this, and I do personally think they will be, we have no definitive proof.  And while I like Mr. Bigelow's style, there are many questions that need to be answered.

It does make sense to have Bigelow involved in Golden Spike... but to quote Lanny Davis:

You have no poof!

VR
RE327

[Robert Thompson]

[Warren Platts]

Re: Bigelow/China--odds are Bigelow is not involved, given the Paragon connection because they make their own inflatables in partnership with Thin Red Line Aerospace. They say their's is better than other inflatables--presumably, that's an indirect reference to Bigelow's modules.

http://www.paragonsdc.com/paragon_projects_09.php

[JohnFornaro]

The joint teaming arrangement is based on an innovative commercial partnership model that infuses high impact scientific missions with a commercial enterprise funding element. This dynamic partnership brings together the best characteristics of non-profit activities with commercial and entrepreneurial skill sets.

I didn't have my hip boots on, so I didn't read beyond this point.

So Ed:  Could you like, maybe summarize this article?

You can't pay for a moon landing program on the profits from 99 cent suggest-a-planet-name transactions.

Come on.  You don't really believe that, do you?  Of course you can.

Could the reason for the manned landing and outpost be to provide a stronger legal footing for fending off a Chinese claim to ownership of the Moon than unmanned operations would permit?

Personally, I wouldn't write it off as something that is being quietly considered.  When governments and companies don't discuss a issue, all the observer can conclude is that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

You're the one advancing the claim that this has anything to do with China. As far as I can tell, this puts the burden of proof on you.

Technically, actually, and ecumenically, both sides of this question are carrying the burden of proof.

[Mr. Bigelow] is the only real game in town as far as inflatables, and has designs for manned lunar outposts.  So he is very probably very well might be a player in Golden Spike.

Fixed that for ya.

The China ownership issue could possibly be a major driving force, and is an interesting topic unto itself.  However, independent threads do not constitute justification for censorship.

True and true.

[go4mars]

Could the reason for the manned landing and outpost be to provide a stronger legal footing for fending off a Chinese claim to ownership of the Moon than unmanned operations would permit?

It could.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Trying to make guesses as to the motivations of a group of investors/business organizers is rather pointless since we have no information as to who they are and their actual goals other than some technical hints as to the scope of what is being considered. Even if we did have their names and the company goals we would still be guessing at motivations based on past actions and statements of these individuals.

From the standpoint of consensus of the posters on the thread the two most "voted" on guesses to the motivation of this group is:

1) A group of billionaires have gotten tired of waiting on Congress and their agent NASA to get us back to the Moon.

2) Because China may beat the US back to the Moon the group is trying to accelerate US actions by private funding the missing pieces of the civil funding to accomplish getting back to the Moon. There are several sub-motivations expressed in this category a significant one is property rights.


My favorite guess is #1.

[Garrett]

To rule something out requires evidence.  Do you have any?

NO! To rule in something requires evidence!

To rule something out requires a lack of evidence.

I dismiss the possibility of fairies living at the end of my garden because there is a total lack of evidence to support such an idea.

[go4mars]

1) A group of billionaires have gotten tired of waiting on Congress and their agent NASA to get us back to the Moon.

2) Because China may beat the US back to the Moon the group is trying to accelerate US actions by private funding the missing pieces of the civil funding to accomplish getting back to the Moon. There are several sub-motivations expressed in this category a significant one is property rights.

It could be:
3)  All of the above. 

I know there is an unprecedented number of billionaires around, 2/3rd of them "self-made" ish.  But in my experience, billionaires (to be clear I've known some but am not one) would be unlikely to put money into this unless they thought there was a chance of return on investment (whether in the form of $ (most likely), personal access to space travel, potentially market-making/enabling technology solutions, synergistic considerations w.r.t. their current sphere (e.g. Virgin Galactic), etc.)).  Though some participants in Golden Spike may consider it foremost as a hobby.

Despite my belief in the likelyhood of high concentrations of easily separable valuable metals in dark polar craters, I still see a joint public-private Project Azorianesque scenario of mutual benefit to the American government and private industry as a possibility; given the potential for long-term geopolitical complications arising from what effectively amounts to property rights ambiguity. 
Someone clever in government has probably already figured out how to tax it. 

There is already a lot of American discomfort relating to "rare earth elements" which China has already demonstrated they are willing to leverage for geopolitical clout (big news in Japan anyways).  Similarly, in this context it's important to remember that platinum-group metals are strategic high-tech metals.  Not just pretty baubles. 

[Robert Thompson]

1) A group of billionaires have gotten tired of waiting on Congress and their agent NASA to get us back to the Moon.

2) Because China may beat the US back to the Moon the group is trying to accelerate US actions by private funding the missing pieces of the civil funding to accomplish getting back to the Moon. There are several sub-motivations expressed in this category a significant one is property rights.

For completeness, where in that spectrum fits the notion that the group has specific intentions to kill SLS? That notion is more political/partisan than agnostic/profitable. imho The fewest moving parts, considering billionaire and millionaire density, orphan of Apollo phenomenon, and private capabilities making strides, is to let dinosaurs be dinosaurs, get on with it, we'll use the bfr when he wakes up, and in the meantime anchor tenancy is the game, and you pay to play. imho

[Khadgars]

There is already a lot of American discomfort relating to "rare earth elements" which China has already demonstrated they are willing to leverage for geopolitical clout (big news in Japan anyways).  Similarly, in this context it's important to remember that platinum-group metals are strategic high-tech metals.  Not just pretty baubles.

 

It is my understanding that the US has some of the worlds largest reserves of rare earth metals, but stopped mining them because China was to easily able to undercut the price.  If this did become a major issue it would be far easier and cheaper to restart these mines and build new ones.

Edit: Just my opinion but the notion of a private moon landing seems comical at this point.  Lets first see how commercial crew does in LEO for a couple years with successful flights year over year before we start worrying about the moon.  The idea of China reaching the moon in the next 10-15 years would mean a quantum leap from the pace they are at now and I don't see that happening.

[Warren Platts]

15+2013 = 2028. Already, China is on schedule to have sample return demonstrated by 2017....

[go4mars]

It is my understanding that the US has some of the worlds largest reserves of rare earth metals, but stopped mining them because China was to easily able to undercut the price.  If this did become a major issue it would be far easier and cheaper to restart these mines and build new ones.

A red herring, but it's mostly a matter of heavies versus lights. 

wikipedia:  "All of the world's heavy rare earths (such as dysprosium) come from Chinese rare earth sources such as the polymetallic Bayan Obo deposit.[14][17] "

There are some other sources of heavies, but not as economically interesting, and generally there is a steep environmental toll with production and processing. 

But that's missing the point. 

[Khadgars]

It is my understanding that the US has some of the worlds largest reserves of rare earth metals, but stopped mining them because China was to easily able to undercut the price.  If this did become a major issue it would be far easier and cheaper to restart these mines and build new ones.

A red herring, but it's mostly a matter of heavies versus lights. 

wikipedia:  "All of the world's heavy rare earths (such as dysprosium) come from Chinese rare earth sources such as the polymetallic Bayan Obo deposit.[14][17] "

There are some other sources of heavies, but not as economically interesting, and generally there is a steep environmental toll with production and processing. 

But that's missing the point. 

That just means current production comes from China in heavies, but we have several massive sources of heavies in the States (Missouri, Nebraska) as well as Canada (Quebec) that are under development now.  Rare earths are is fact not very rare at all and are found all over the world.