FAILURE: Sea Launch - Intelsat 27 - February 1, 2013 (0656UTC)

[ChileVerde]

Does [winds: 6 knots & seas: 6.5’] qualify as “rough sea” ??
6 knots translates into 3.1 m/sec – it’s almost nothing, as I understand – am I right?
seas: 6.5’ – 2 meter waves; can they make an ocean oil rig “unstable” ??

As a 20 year US Navy vet, I will state unequivocably that 6 knot winds and 6.5ft seas are nothing to a vessel the size of the Odyssey platform, particularly when it is ballasted down for launch.  In addition, such platforms usually have some form of active stabilisation.

Absolutely. The parent platform of Odyssey was designed to hold a drill string in the Barents and North Sea during winter storms.

[Prober]

Do we know whether Zenit actually has hold-down following ignition?  I thought the usual Russian practice was to ignite at a low thrust level without hold-down, have a quick look to see whether things are OK, and then throttle up and go.

Observe pyros firing right at start of video.

a beautiful video.

[Prober]

Yeah, for the quality of the stream (not at all great), the initial ascent didn't strike me as odd.

mine was complete trash.

[Prober]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

[Lars_J]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

How is this related to Phobos Grunt? That Zenit launched just fine.

[Prober]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

How is this related to Phobos Grunt? That Zenit launched just fine.

loss of control.....remember PG used a brand new controller.

[simonbp]

The similarity is that is seems they (Engeromash in this case) are trying to claim that their system didn't fail when it's clear it probably did. That's the sort of thing you could get away with in the Soviet days, but when you are webcasting the FAA-licensed launch of an American payload, it just won't fly.

[Lars_J]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

How is this related to Phobos Grunt? That Zenit launched just fine.

loss of control.....remember PG used a brand new controller.

But that was a different controller... Phobos-Grunt had some jury-rigged custom solution. Separate from the Zenit LV.

[Prober]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

How is this related to Phobos Grunt? That Zenit launched just fine.

loss of control.....remember PG used a brand new controller.

But that was a different controller... Phobos-Grunt had some jury-rigged custom solution. Separate from the Zenit LV.

but suffered loss of control

[rds100]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

What does this have to do with Russia? It's an Ukrainian rocket?

[Lee Jay]

Does [winds: 6 knots & seas: 6.5’] qualify as “rough sea” ??
6 knots translates into 3.1 m/sec – it’s almost nothing, as I understand – am I right?
seas: 6.5’ – 2 meter waves; can they make an ocean oil rig “unstable” ??

As a 20 year US Navy vet, I will state unequivocably that 6 knot winds and 6.5ft seas are nothing to a vessel the size of the Odyssey platform, particularly when it is ballasted down for launch.  In addition, such platforms usually have some form of active stabilisation.

This platform is also a semi-submersible, which is designed to be the most stable form of floating un-tethered platform.  I agree with you.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Oh this Roscosmos press release is classic!

A quick analysis of telemetry data received leads to a preliminary conclusion that the first-stage propulsion system and control system of the launch vehicle were operating normally.

Document review conducted during this day at the factory power plant (NGO "Energomash") and management systems (SPC AP) showed that there were no abnormalities in their production.

So what caused the rocket to pitch over? Tornadoes? Or the rocket made up its own mind to commit suicide? 

[simonbp]

What does this have to do with Russia? It's an Ukrainian rocket?

It's a Russian-owned company, with a Russian upper stage and a Russian-built first stage engine that appears to have failed.

[owais.usmani]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920853516.html

said that no disturbance of the ocean during the launch was not. If it were, it would have moved the start (to another date)," - said the source.

[DaveS]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

How is this related to Phobos Grunt? That Zenit launched just fine.

loss of control.....remember PG used a brand new controller.

But that was a different controller... Phobos-Grunt had some jury-rigged custom solution. Separate from the Zenit LV.

but suffered loss of control

No, it did not. The Zenit for the Phobos-Grunt mission worked nominally inserting the payload into the planned LEO parking orbit. The problem came when the modified Fregat upper-stage was supposed to ignite for its first intermediate orbit injection burn before executing the TMI burn.

It failed to ignite stranding PG in its initial parking orbit until it decayed and entered the atmosphere and was destroyed.

AFAIK, no real cause for the failure was ever really proven but there were plenty of theories put forth.

[Danderman]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

What does this have to do with Russia? It's an Ukrainian rocket?

The Biser computer is made in Russia.

[Jim]

http://ria.ru/science/20130201/920839804.html

likely to have been due to a failure in the control system, according to RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

got a feeling they are on to the problem.  Its the same Phobos Grunt again.  My question would be:  Will Russia double down and quickly launch again or run away from Sea Launch?

How is this related to Phobos Grunt? That Zenit launched just fine.

loss of control.....remember PG used a brand new controller.

But that was a different controller... Phobos-Grunt had some jury-rigged custom solution. Separate from the Zenit LV.

but suffered loss of control

So what?  That doesn't mean they are related.

[Garrettishere]

I was told that there was not 100% thrust of engine at rocket liftoff.

If that's the case, it's a really "nice" feature - to have the vehicle issue a launch commit command even though its propulsion system didn't satisfy nominal operation criteria. I find that a little hard to believe.

From the SeaLaunch User Guide on page 8-24:

[Antares]

simonbp, your comments do not seem to be based on anything.  From what I've seen, it could be a software error, a guidance hardware error, a release system fault, a thrust vector actuator failure or an engine failure.

You have already isolated it to the engine.  Please enlighten us how you did that.

[kevin-rf]

Antares you forgot Fuel Dome Implosion

I really would like to see some solid details released on the real cause...