Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS-2 SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION  (Read 290042 times)

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8029
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 4090
  • Likes Given: 1248
Kicking off the General Discussion thread for SpX-2

NSF Resources:

Other threads for SpX-2:
SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 PROCESSING/Pre-LAUNCH UPDATES
SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS-2 (SpX-2) LAUNCH and FD-1 UPDATES
SpaceX Dragon CRS-2 (SpX-2) FD-2, FD-3 & Berthed Operations UPDATES
SpaceX Dragon CRS-2 (SpX-2) EOM (Unberth, Entry, Splashdown) UPDATES
The CRS-2/SpX-2 "Junk in the Trunk" Party Thread

SpaceX News Articles from 2006 (Including numerous exclusive Elon interviews):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21862.0

SpaceX News Articles (Recent):
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/spacex/

Recent COTS/CRS Specific articles - COTS to C2+ to CRS-1:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/Dragon/


SpaceX General Forum Section:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=45.0 - For all SpaceXey things, like Falcon Heavy and such.

SpaceX Mission Forum Section:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=55.0 - where you are right now.

--------------
L2 Members:

L2 SpaceX Section (Large):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?action=tags&tags=SpaceX

L2 Commercial Cargo and Crew Section (Includes SpaceX Mission Specisla with Exclusively acquired pre-launch and Mission Coverage, Presentations, Graphics, Videos, Updates, NASA/Space industry member comments):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=54.0

To Join L2: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/








From the Exp 33 spacewalk pre-view came a few interesting notes:

- SpX-2 first stage move to KSC delayed in view of investigation into SpX-1 launch anomaly.
- SpX-2 launch currently still in January 2013, but expected to move a little to the right.
- SpX-2 launchdate in January not critical to ISS program for logistics standpoint.
- Any move to the right of SpX-2 directly translates into move to the right for SpX-3. Reason: SpX-3 uses new version of Falcon-9, requiring mods to pad between SpX-2 and SpX-3.
- Investigation into SpX-1 launch anomaly is making good progress. Lot's of NASA personell involved as well. Once root-cause is found, will go back to McGregor to make sure the SpX-2 Falcon-9 is not susceptible to the same issue.

See from 40 minutes into this presser:
« Last Edit: 08/08/2017 09:01 PM by gongora »

Offline Mader Levap

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 962
  • Liked: 429
  • Likes Given: 468
- SpX-2 launch currently still in January 2013, but expected to move a little to the right.
Only a little? They don't know what caused it yet, so they cannot know how much it will slip!
« Last Edit: 10/28/2012 10:33 AM by Chris Bergin »
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline kevin-rf

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8640
  • Overlooking the path Mary's little Lamb took..
  • Liked: 1111
  • Likes Given: 241
Only a little? They don't know what caused it yet, so they cannot know how much it will slip!
A nit, they have not announced that they know what caused it yet. There is a difference. They may know and not released the fact, or they might not know yet. We don't have insight.
« Last Edit: 10/28/2012 10:33 AM by Chris Bergin »
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

Offline A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8329
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 295
  • Likes Given: 129
They may have found several faults.  Investigations frequently do.  If you ignore the small faults it takes longer to find the cause of the major problem because the small faults get in the way.  Uncured small faults have a nasty habit of coming back as big faults, when they cost another ~3 month production stop whilst being investigated.

Offline baldusi

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7437
  • Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Liked: 1442
  • Likes Given: 4499
Could find it was an installation fault, or a manufacturing fault and have proof that it's not present on the rest of the engines and clear it without more than a simple inspection. Could have found a design fault and decide to ditch the v1.0 and go directly with he v1.1, adding four extra months. Who knows?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1749
  • Likes Given: 201
I think if the first stage arrives by mid November the launch date slip will be minor. But any padding in the processing flow would be gone so if there are any difficulties it would cause additional slip. If the stage dosn't arrive mid November then for each week it is delayed past then expect at least a week slip to the launch date. I doubt if they can compress the processing to less than 8 weeks with their current work force levels. Starting in June SpaceX plans to do a launch every 2 months. They have yet to reach that level of process streamlining, so the 8 week value for Spx-2 is optimistic. A more realistic value would be 10 weeks out or first week of November. So if there is no expected delivery after the 1st expect a launch slip notification.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7113
  • A spaceflight fan
  • London, UK
  • Liked: 637
  • Likes Given: 748
- Investigation into SpX-1 launch anomaly is making good progress. Lot's of NASA personell involved as well. Once root-cause is found, will go back to McGregor to make sure the SpX-2 Falcon-9 is not susceptible to the same issue.

That's a significant revelation all of its own - the anomaly root cause hasn't been established yet.  No root cause means no likely fix and, frankly, SpX-2 must be considered to have a launch date of 'TBD' until that changes.

Does anyone know what mods are needed for F9 v.1.1? I know that the hold-down clamps will probably need to be changed because of the different core aft geometry.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

~*~*~*~

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline mlindner

  • Software Engineer
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1943
  • Space Capitalist
  • Silicon Valley, CA -- previously in Ann Arbor, MI
  • Liked: 540
  • Likes Given: 212
- Investigation into SpX-1 launch anomaly is making good progress. Lot's of NASA personell involved as well. Once root-cause is found, will go back to McGregor to make sure the SpX-2 Falcon-9 is not susceptible to the same issue.

That's a significant revelation all of its own - the anomaly root cause hasn't been established yet.  No root cause means no likely fix and, frankly, SpX-2 must be considered to have a launch date of 'TBD' until that changes.

You should look at the post a few posts above your own.

Only a little? They don't know what caused it yet, so they cannot know how much it will slip!
A nit, they have not announced that they know what caused it yet. There is a difference. They may know and not released the fact, or they might not know yet. We don't have insight.
« Last Edit: 10/28/2012 08:48 PM by mlindner »
Internal combustion engine in space. It's just a Bad Idea.TM - Robotbeat

Offline Antares

  • ABO^2
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5201
  • Done arguing with amateurs
  • Liked: 368
  • Likes Given: 226
Failures with quickly known root causes shouldn't have launched in the first place.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline Garrett

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1106
  • France
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 74
Failures with quickly known root causes shouldn't have launched in the first place.
Seriously?
Failures often bring to light issues that were very well hidden during testing and modelling. Sometimes your statement is true, especially in hindsight, but every failure has its own unique story.

This is rocket science, not Lego.
- "Nothing shocks me. I'm a scientist." - Indiana Jones

Offline Kabloona

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4257
  • Velocitas Eradico
  • Fortress of Solitude
  • Liked: 2488
  • Likes Given: 514
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #10 on: 10/29/2012 01:26 PM »
- Investigation into SpX-1 launch anomaly is making good progress. Lot's of NASA personell involved as well. Once root-cause is found, will go back to McGregor to make sure the SpX-2 Falcon-9 is not susceptible to the same issue.

That's a significant revelation all of its own - the anomaly root cause hasn't been established yet.

Why is that a "revelation?" It would be more surprising if the root cause HAD been established by now, a mere 2 weeks after launch. In my modest experience, root causes of flight failures can be extremely difficult to establish, because you have no physical article to examine and because the telemetry you have is necessarily limited. For example, look at the Taurus fairing anomaly. After the failure, Orbital and NASA were unable to pinpoint a root cause, but identified several possible failure modes. They redesigned the fairing to eliminate those modes, and the redesigned fairing failed AGAIN. So there's a case where even extensive analysis, test, and redesign failed to pinpoint a root cause.

It's entirely possible that SpaceX and NASA likewise may not be able to establish a definite root cause, but identify several possible causes, and take several corrective actions, hoping they covered all the bases.
« Last Edit: 10/29/2012 01:30 PM by Kabloona »

Offline Prober

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10313
  • Save the spin....I'm keeping you honest!
  • Nevada
  • Liked: 700
  • Likes Given: 728
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #11 on: 10/29/2012 01:57 PM »
I think if the first stage arrives by mid November the launch date slip will be minor. But any padding in the processing flow would be gone so if there are any difficulties it would cause additional slip. If the stage dosn't arrive mid November then for each week it is delayed past then expect at least a week slip to the launch date. I doubt if they can compress the processing to less than 8 weeks with their current work force levels. Starting in June SpaceX plans to do a launch every 2 months. They have yet to reach that level of process streamlining, so the 8 week value for Spx-2 is optimistic. A more realistic value would be 10 weeks out or first week of November. So if there is no expected delivery after the 1st expect a launch slip notification.

you accounting for the holidays in that thinking?    I'm thinking the holidays are going to make the review of the F9 launch issues drag on longer.
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
  • Liked: 1412
  • Likes Given: 1167
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #12 on: 10/29/2012 02:48 PM »
anik just posted January 18 for the launch of SpaceX CRS-2, or SpX-2 for short.

2013
January 18 - Dragon (SpX-2) launch
January 20 - Dragon (SpX-2) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS

February 11 - Progress M-16M undocking (from Pirs)February 12 - Progress M-18M launch
February 12 - Progress M-18M docking (to Pirs)
February 19 - Dragon (SpX-2) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS

Changes on October 29th

What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Tcommon

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 146
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #13 on: 10/29/2012 03:13 PM »
Failures with quickly known root causes shouldn't have launched in the first place.
Failures often bring to light issues that were very well hidden during testing and modelling. Sometimes your statement is true, especially in hindsight, but every failure has its own unique story.

How quickly a root cause is identified doesn't characterise the failure. For example, it might just be dumb luck that a thermocouple or camera was in the right place, or contra-wise. Maybe Antares could clarify what he was thinking.
« Last Edit: 10/29/2012 04:12 PM by Tcommon »

Offline mr. mark

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Liked: 169
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #14 on: 10/29/2012 03:49 PM »
This will be the last Falcon 9 version 1 launch and the last using the Merlin1C exclusively. The Falcon 9 version 1 never really had time to fully prove itself, now moving to version 1.1. Let's hope the close out of Falcon 9 version 1 is a total success.

Online ugordan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7502
    • My mainly Cassini image gallery
  • Liked: 1717
  • Likes Given: 375
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #15 on: 10/29/2012 03:50 PM »
This will be the last Falcon 9 version 1 launch and the last using the Merlin1C exclusively.

Jason-3 launch for NASA.

Offline Lars_J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6161
  • California
  • Liked: 665
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #16 on: 10/29/2012 03:54 PM »
This will be the last Falcon 9 version 1 launch and the last using the Merlin1C exclusively.

Jason-3 launch for NASA.

I still don't think that will happen - on the 1.0, that is. SLC-40 is going to have a significant down-time to convert to a 1.1 pad after this flight, and they are not going to switch back and forth.

And the west coast pad is going to be 1.1 from the start.

Online ugordan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7502
    • My mainly Cassini image gallery
  • Liked: 1717
  • Likes Given: 375
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #17 on: 10/29/2012 03:58 PM »
This will be the last Falcon 9 version 1 launch and the last using the Merlin1C exclusively.

Jason-3 launch for NASA.

I still don't think that will happen - on the 1.0, that is.

The NASA release states "Jason-3 spacecraft in December 2014 aboard a Falcon 9 v1.0 rocket from Complex 4 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. " so until someone shows otherwise, F9 v1.0 is what it is. Otherwise, saying SpX-2 is the last v1.0 is just pulling "facts" out of thin air.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

This will be the last Falcon 9 version 1 launch and the last using the Merlin1C exclusively.

Jason-3 launch for NASA.

I still don't think that will happen - on the 1.0, that is. SLC-40 is going to have a significant down-time to convert to a 1.1 pad after this flight, and they are not going to switch back and forth.

And the west coast pad is going to be 1.1 from the start.

Can NASA have the right to "accept" a modification to the launch contract to launch it on a v1.1 if SpaceX request it down the road? (that also applies to, e.g. moving a mission from the Atlas V 401 to a 411)
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline mr. mark

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1994
  • Liked: 169
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #19 on: 10/29/2012 04:03 PM »
From a cost perspective changing flight hardware out for 1 flight makes no sense. We will just have to wait this one out and see.

Tags: