SES signs contract for three satellite launches with SpaceX

[Elmar Moelzer]

Those are the things nobody is being told Robotbeat.

Even those companies which are supposed to be customers are kept in the dark with payloads that will never launch.

I'm starting to get a bad taste from it myself.

SpaceX market themselves as more than a NASA contractor. They have others to look after and need to start doing so.

How do you know that the customers are not being told? Do you have any reference to back this up? Just because the general public does not know these things, does not mean that the clients dont know these things.

[guckyfan]

Stealing Falcon 9 payloads is now the biggest launch market as twisted as that is 

Let them feast on it as long as it lasts. It won't be long now. By second half of 2014 they will be launching a steady stream after possible initial problems with the 1.1 core are solved. Unless they encounter serious problems which would endanger the existence of SpaceX. That is very unlikely but still possible.

[go4mars]

Unless they encounter serious problems which would endanger the existence of SpaceX. That is very unlikely but still possible.

Only possible if it happened at the same time as global financial restructuring, or some other significant external factor.  They've done 4 falcon 9's.  Grasshopper and its potential are captivating.  If they want more money (IPO or otherwise), they are credible enough that someone would prop them up while they get sorted out.  Elon is able backstop if necessary.  Their equity has value.  I bet they already have to chase out deal guys and Would-be suiters with brooms.

I think reasonably likely outcomes all boil down to shades of sufficient.  I didn't think that 4 years ago, though I was optimistic!

[guckyfan]

Unless they encounter serious problems which would endanger the existence of SpaceX. That is very unlikely but still possible.

Only possible if it happened at the same time as global financial restructuring, or some other significant external factor.  They've done 4 falcon 9's.  Grasshopper and its potential are captivating.  If they want more money (IPO or otherwise), they are credible enough that someone would prop them up while they get sorted out.  Elon is able backstop if necessary.  Their equity has value.  I bet they already have to chase out deal guys and Would-be suiters with brooms.

I think reasonably likely outcomes all boil down to shades of sufficient.  I didn't think that 4 years ago, though I was optimistic!

I agree completely.

[spectre9]

If and when SpaceX is launching regularly they will have to deal with the competition that actually have cash reserves undercutting them. This means Boeing/Lockheed/China/Russia/ESA. They will not just roll over and let their payloads disappear. They'll try to bully SpaceX out of the market by selling rockets below cost price.

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

The fact that they all give unrealistic dates on their launches that come and go tells me they're "in the dark".

[joek]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

You might want to recheck those quotes, in particular SES.  While they have expressed concerns about SpaceX's ability to deliver, they appear to be still committed (as of this date); specifically, although they have concerns as to SpaceX's ability to deliver in the short term, they appear to be committed in the medium-long term.

[spectre9]

Medium/long term is where the competition has plenty of time to respond.

[joek]

Medium/long term is where the competition has plenty of time to respond.

What competition?

[go4mars]

If and when SpaceX is launching regularly they will have to deal with the competition that actually have cash reserves undercutting them. This means Boeing/Lockheed/China/Russia/ESA. They will not just roll over and let their payloads disappear. They'll try to bully SpaceX out of the market by selling rockets below cost

Cash reserves?  If it comes to a p'ing contest with the status quo, it's fortunate that he's a billionaire, and founders fund is his buddies.  There's an unofficial title "paypal (sorry, need to stop here for a second and just say that I have to use stupid words to get my point across. I know that means I must have a weak argument, but that's why I use bad words).".  Look up Peter Thiel.  (might be Theil). Who pushes more money around:  ULA?  Or steering committee members of Bilderberg?

But it won't come to that. 

"If we can't eventually make rockets quickly and easily reusable, I'd consider SpaceX to have been a failure."
-Paraphrased quote from the founder who considered this a runner-up to a zero chance of return philanthropic venture.

Translation, even if the competition drops prices by only half or so, it's still a small win for space nerds everywhere.  But if the pressure makes things competitive enough that the market can grow significantly,  then I think Elon would consider it a job well done, even if the dominant rocket says XCOR or something else on the side.  Somewhat bittersweet perhaps. 

[baldusi]

If and when SpaceX is launching regularly they will have to deal with the competition that actually have cash reserves undercutting them. This means Boeing/Lockheed/China/Russia/ESA. They will not just roll over and let their payloads disappear. They'll try to bully SpaceX out of the market by selling rockets below cost price.

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

The fact that they all give unrealistic dates on their launches that come and go tells me they're "in the dark".

What do you do for a living? That's purely unsubstantiated speculation. ULA has zero margin to undercut them. In particular, thet are not on the commercial market. I seriously doubt SpaceX will be able to match their reliabilty and the DoD will still pay them over 1B/yr in subsidies if that means lower risk on their 10Bs programs.
Ariane and the Russians are already selling under their cost. Any simple analysis will show that For SpaceX to be able to match their reliability thei'll need something like 5 to 7 years. The Chinese are ITAR limited. And the Russians are in the Angara transition. Plus Sea Launch needs to sell more flits or it's out.
Regarding SpaceX lateness, it's nothing outexpected out of a new player. Even among established launchers it's customary to take launch options. From a new player it's expected to be late a couple of years. No LV has been on time. That's why fleet operators can take a few launches, exactly because they have multiple satellites on the pipeline.
Proton has had about one failure per year, which translates to permanent schedule's pressure.
What a basic reading of any payload's planner's guide, would show you that launch contracts are usually 30month, with milestones payments. A big chunck of those payments is attached to the advance of the actual launch vehicle, about 12 months in advance. Thus, Thaicom and SES should know exactly how does the current schedule is, with no problems planned.
Having options for other launcher's is part of this business. If they are fishing for price, because their orbital slots are "safe", they option Proton or Sea Launch. If they need to make sure of the launch, they go with Ariane.
In all the cases they have enough satellites on the pipeline to swap the manifest. You don't understand this market well enough to make the blank statements you're making.

[mlindner]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

Please link them, I'd be interested to hear these quotes that I've yet to hear anyone mention.

[HMXHMX]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

Please link them, I'd be interested to hear these quotes that I've yet to hear anyone mention.

If the fairing is not being testing until the "fall" it seems there will be little time to conduct the MDA, SES and Thaicom flights in 2013...

See http://www.spacetest.org/news.html

[Jason1701]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

Please link them, I'd be interested to hear these quotes that I've yet to hear anyone mention.

If the fairing is not being testing until the "fall" it seems there will be little time to conduct the MDA, SES and Thaicom flights in 2013...

See http://www.spacetest.org/news.html

I believe that page was authored before last fall, as it references a "recent" link that is actually from May 2012. So payload fairing testing has probably been underway for months.