SES signs contract for three satellite launches with SpaceX

[Skyrocket]

SES has signed a contract for three more satellite launches with SpaceX.

The launches of the yet unasigned satellites will be on on SpaceX's Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy rockets.

http://www.ses.com/4233325/news/2012/12569243

[mr. mark]

SES statement on the contract.
http://www.ses.com/4233325/news/2012/12569243

[savuporo]

Good news, and i wonder if SpaceX office has a small statue of Briz-M somewhere for offerings.

They do need to update their manifest to indicate all the current slippages though. The already booked SES-8 flight is planned for next year, and as per Bausch:

: "SES was the first leading commercial satellite operator to place a launch contract with SpaceX and we eagerly await the launch of SES-8 in 2013.

Yes, we all eagerly await.

[Comga]

This is what was said in the "General Discussion" thread.

So if the second SES flight is 2015 (one of the new three sats just contracted) and its alreaady on the SpaceX manifest and the total for 2015 is still at 15 total, what got dropped? Or was it on the manifest all this time?

This is curious.  A second SES flight has been on the manifest since April 2011, although it may have been the "Undisclosed customer" from February of 2011 that it replaced.  It is not clear how that flight is ignored and re-announced as new. 

As we well know, the manifest is not a good reference. Aside from listing the date where they will have "hardware at launch site" while every other announcement is for the launch date, it is not frequently maintained.  SpaceX announced months ago that there would be only (only!) seven Iridium launches, not eight, but that eighth flight persists on the manifest.

So is this three new launches or really two?

[bolun]

http://www.spacenews.com/launch/120914-ses-launch-order-adds-spacex-backlog.html

Luxembourg-based SES, which was the first major commercial satellite operator to book Falcon 9 — the SES-8 satellite is scheduled for launch in the second half of 2013 — announced Sept. 12 it had contracted for three more satellites to launch on Falcon 9 or the future Falcon Heavy rocket starting in 2015.

Bausch said SES remains confident that SpaceX will be able to launch SES-8 around July 2013. As a condition of the contract, SES said, SpaceX must have conducted a successful launch of the new Merlin 1D engine and a new 5-meter-diameter fairing that will be used for the SES flight.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said here Sept. 11 during World Satellite Business Week that SpaceX has completed the design and the first model of the new fairing, with testing to start in a month or so. Qualification tests of the Merlin 1D have already begun and are scheduled to continue to the end of this year, she said.

The qualification launch of the new ensemble is scheduled to occur by June 2013, a mission that will carry a small Canadian research satellite into polar low Earth orbit, not to the geostationary transfer orbit where SES-8 and most other telecommunications satellites are placed.

“If there are delays we will have a backup, in this case the Ariane 5,” Bausch said. “If we see a delay in Falcon 9 for SES-8, we would need to inform Arianespace six months ahead, so around November or December, saying we are moving SES-8 to Ariane. In that case we would push the Falcon launch to another satellite at a later date.”

[thydusk666]

“If there are delays we will have a backup, in this case the Ariane 5,” Bausch said. “If we see a delay in Falcon 9 for SES-8, we would need to inform Arianespace six months ahead, so around November or December, saying we are moving SES-8 to Ariane. In that case we would push the Falcon launch to another satellite at a later date.”

Very interesting - this is a launch contract with little or no margins for delays.
SpaceX needs to ramp up the launch rate and keep up with their manifest, otherwise delays will lead to loosing the much needed customers.

[beancounter]

“If there are delays we will have a backup, in this case the Ariane 5,” Bausch said. “If we see a delay in Falcon 9 for SES-8, we would need to inform Arianespace six months ahead, so around November or December, saying we are moving SES-8 to Ariane. In that case we would push the Falcon launch to another satellite at a later date.”

Very interesting - this is a launch contract with little or no margins for delays.
SpaceX needs to ramp up the launch rate and keep up with their manifest, otherwise delays will lead to loosing the much needed customers.

Also interesting:

 "Frank McKenna, president of International Launch Services (ILS) of Reston, Va. — a veteran launch service provider and a principal SpaceX competitor — said he has calculated that SpaceX is, on average, just under 50 percent less expensive than ILS, Arianespace of France and other established launch service providers.

For McKenna, the SpaceX phenomenon means that nearly $500 million has been withheld from the commercial launch industry — an industry not generally associated with thick profit margins — in the less than three years since SpaceX arrived on the scene.

For SES and others, it is $500 million in savings."

[IRobot]

For McKenna, the SpaceX phenomenon means that nearly $500 million has been withheld from the commercial launch industry — an industry not generally associated with thick profit margins — in the less than three years since SpaceX arrived on the scene.

For SES and others, it is $500 million in savings."

It's like saying Henry Ford reduced the market size of the auto industry...
If access to space becomes cheap, the industry will grow. Of course that means people like Mr Mckenna have to work harder to remain competitive.

[MP99]

For McKenna, the SpaceX phenomenon means that nearly $500 million has been withheld from the commercial launch industry — an industry not generally associated with thick profit margins — in the less than three years since SpaceX arrived on the scene.

For SES and others, it is $500 million in savings."

It's like saying Henry Ford reduced the market size of the auto industry...
If access to space becomes cheap, the industry will grow. Of course that means people like Mr Mckenna have to work harder to remain competitive.

Ignoring the NASA flights, how many launches on SpaceX's manifest would not have flown on another provider if SpaceX weren't there?

Unless and until SpaceX expands the market, existing buyers will simply get their launches cheaper, so reducing the total size of the launch market.

By the Model T analogy, the successful launches so far have not really come off a mature production line, I believe that's what v1.1 is for. Eight flights in 2013 (ref Gwynne Shotwell recently) will be a big ramp up for them.

ISTM it will still take some time for additional demand to be stimulated.

cheers, Martin

[kevin-rf]

One can argue that the two planned Asian Broadcast/Satmex dual launches are only happening because SpaceX along with Boeing lowered the cost of access to space. It is doubtful that these two operators would have been able to afford the four satellites otherwise.

[Danderman]

This is creating an interesting situation, will SpaceX destroy the competition, or will the competition reduce prices to compete?

Or will SpaceX fail to launch on time, allowing its competition to claim that they can launch on time, leaving them with a large niche market, satellites that must be launched on schedule.

[IRobot]

This is creating an interesting situation, will SpaceX destroy the competition, or will the competition reduce prices to compete?

Or will SpaceX fail to launch on time, allowing its competition to claim that they can launch on time, leaving them with a large niche market, satellites that must be launched on schedule.

I think that even if the competition lowers prices, SpaceX might be able to reduce them further if any of the stages becomes reusable.

Also SpaceX factory was done from day zero thinking of a steady output of rockets, so after some initial backlog, it will be easy to adjust production output.

So in the end we might end up with SpaceX having a quota larger than Ariane and on the other side, some government backed launchers. Governments might lower the price below cost just to keep the capacity to launch.

There is another possibility: SpaceX has 1-3 launch failures and loose large satellite launches for Ariane.

[dcporter]

Can we keep this sort of broad speculation off this thread?

[Comga]

Can we keep this sort of broad speculation off this thread?

Agreed
Those who do not understand the "creative destruction" of capitalism can go look it up elsewhere or join an economics forum.

Those who want to guess how many launches SpaceX will do next year can wait for tigerade to open up the guessing poll.

For anyone else, again, is this really three additional launches or two? That second one seems to have been on the manifest for years.

[friendly3]

For anyone else, again, is this really three additional launches or two? That second one seems to have been on the manifest for years.

The article is clear: three additional F9 launches or maybe one FH.

[tigerade]

For those curious on SES-8, here is the profile of the satellite to be launched by Falcon 9:

http://www.ses.com/4629034/ses-8

[Robotbeat]

Where is the rocket that would launch for SES? Where is it in the workflow?

[spectre9]

Those are the things nobody is being told Robotbeat.

Even those companies which are supposed to be customers are kept in the dark with payloads that will never launch.

I'm starting to get a bad taste from it myself.

SpaceX market themselves as more than a NASA contractor. They have others to look after and need to start doing so.

[Robotbeat]

Those are the things nobody is being told Robotbeat.

Even those companies which are supposed to be customers are kept in the dark with payloads that will never launch.

I'm starting to get a bad taste from it myself.

SpaceX market themselves as more than a NASA contractor. They have others to look after and need to start doing so.

Starting to? You've had a bad taste in your mouth for a while...

[spectre9]

Price means nothing without launching.

Stealing Falcon 9 payloads is now the biggest launch market as twisted as that is 

[Elmar Moelzer]

Those are the things nobody is being told Robotbeat.

Even those companies which are supposed to be customers are kept in the dark with payloads that will never launch.

I'm starting to get a bad taste from it myself.

SpaceX market themselves as more than a NASA contractor. They have others to look after and need to start doing so.

How do you know that the customers are not being told? Do you have any reference to back this up? Just because the general public does not know these things, does not mean that the clients dont know these things.

[guckyfan]

Stealing Falcon 9 payloads is now the biggest launch market as twisted as that is 

Let them feast on it as long as it lasts. It won't be long now. By second half of 2014 they will be launching a steady stream after possible initial problems with the 1.1 core are solved. Unless they encounter serious problems which would endanger the existence of SpaceX. That is very unlikely but still possible.

[go4mars]

Unless they encounter serious problems which would endanger the existence of SpaceX. That is very unlikely but still possible.

Only possible if it happened at the same time as global financial restructuring, or some other significant external factor.  They've done 4 falcon 9's.  Grasshopper and its potential are captivating.  If they want more money (IPO or otherwise), they are credible enough that someone would prop them up while they get sorted out.  Elon is able backstop if necessary.  Their equity has value.  I bet they already have to chase out deal guys and Would-be suiters with brooms.

I think reasonably likely outcomes all boil down to shades of sufficient.  I didn't think that 4 years ago, though I was optimistic!

[guckyfan]

Unless they encounter serious problems which would endanger the existence of SpaceX. That is very unlikely but still possible.

Only possible if it happened at the same time as global financial restructuring, or some other significant external factor.  They've done 4 falcon 9's.  Grasshopper and its potential are captivating.  If they want more money (IPO or otherwise), they are credible enough that someone would prop them up while they get sorted out.  Elon is able backstop if necessary.  Their equity has value.  I bet they already have to chase out deal guys and Would-be suiters with brooms.

I think reasonably likely outcomes all boil down to shades of sufficient.  I didn't think that 4 years ago, though I was optimistic!

I agree completely.

[spectre9]

If and when SpaceX is launching regularly they will have to deal with the competition that actually have cash reserves undercutting them. This means Boeing/Lockheed/China/Russia/ESA. They will not just roll over and let their payloads disappear. They'll try to bully SpaceX out of the market by selling rockets below cost price.

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

The fact that they all give unrealistic dates on their launches that come and go tells me they're "in the dark".

[joek]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

You might want to recheck those quotes, in particular SES.  While they have expressed concerns about SpaceX's ability to deliver, they appear to be still committed (as of this date); specifically, although they have concerns as to SpaceX's ability to deliver in the short term, they appear to be committed in the medium-long term.

[spectre9]

Medium/long term is where the competition has plenty of time to respond.

[joek]

Medium/long term is where the competition has plenty of time to respond.

What competition?

[go4mars]

If and when SpaceX is launching regularly they will have to deal with the competition that actually have cash reserves undercutting them. This means Boeing/Lockheed/China/Russia/ESA. They will not just roll over and let their payloads disappear. They'll try to bully SpaceX out of the market by selling rockets below cost

Cash reserves?  If it comes to a p'ing contest with the status quo, it's fortunate that he's a billionaire, and founders fund is his buddies.  There's an unofficial title "paypal (sorry, need to stop here for a second and just say that I have to use stupid words to get my point across. I know that means I must have a weak argument, but that's why I use bad words).".  Look up Peter Thiel.  (might be Theil). Who pushes more money around:  ULA?  Or steering committee members of Bilderberg?

But it won't come to that. 

"If we can't eventually make rockets quickly and easily reusable, I'd consider SpaceX to have been a failure."
-Paraphrased quote from the founder who considered this a runner-up to a zero chance of return philanthropic venture.

Translation, even if the competition drops prices by only half or so, it's still a small win for space nerds everywhere.  But if the pressure makes things competitive enough that the market can grow significantly,  then I think Elon would consider it a job well done, even if the dominant rocket says XCOR or something else on the side.  Somewhat bittersweet perhaps. 

[baldusi]

If and when SpaceX is launching regularly they will have to deal with the competition that actually have cash reserves undercutting them. This means Boeing/Lockheed/China/Russia/ESA. They will not just roll over and let their payloads disappear. They'll try to bully SpaceX out of the market by selling rockets below cost price.

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

The fact that they all give unrealistic dates on their launches that come and go tells me they're "in the dark".

What do you do for a living? That's purely unsubstantiated speculation. ULA has zero margin to undercut them. In particular, thet are not on the commercial market. I seriously doubt SpaceX will be able to match their reliabilty and the DoD will still pay them over 1B/yr in subsidies if that means lower risk on their 10Bs programs.
Ariane and the Russians are already selling under their cost. Any simple analysis will show that For SpaceX to be able to match their reliability thei'll need something like 5 to 7 years. The Chinese are ITAR limited. And the Russians are in the Angara transition. Plus Sea Launch needs to sell more flits or it's out.
Regarding SpaceX lateness, it's nothing outexpected out of a new player. Even among established launchers it's customary to take launch options. From a new player it's expected to be late a couple of years. No LV has been on time. That's why fleet operators can take a few launches, exactly because they have multiple satellites on the pipeline.
Proton has had about one failure per year, which translates to permanent schedule's pressure.
What a basic reading of any payload's planner's guide, would show you that launch contracts are usually 30month, with milestones payments. A big chunck of those payments is attached to the advance of the actual launch vehicle, about 12 months in advance. Thus, Thaicom and SES should know exactly how does the current schedule is, with no problems planned.
Having options for other launcher's is part of this business. If they are fishing for price, because their orbital slots are "safe", they option Proton or Sea Launch. If they need to make sure of the launch, they go with Ariane.
In all the cases they have enough satellites on the pipeline to swap the manifest. You don't understand this market well enough to make the blank statements you're making.

[mlindner]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

Please link them, I'd be interested to hear these quotes that I've yet to hear anyone mention.

[HMXHMX]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

Please link them, I'd be interested to hear these quotes that I've yet to hear anyone mention.

If the fairing is not being testing until the "fall" it seems there will be little time to conduct the MDA, SES and Thaicom flights in 2013...

See http://www.spacetest.org/news.html

[Jason1701]

I'm not going to link quotes from those commercial companies that are waiting on a SpaceX payload that have been interviewed at other space news sites. Orbcomm expected more by now and SES isn't that confident of getting something launched soon.

Please link them, I'd be interested to hear these quotes that I've yet to hear anyone mention.

If the fairing is not being testing until the "fall" it seems there will be little time to conduct the MDA, SES and Thaicom flights in 2013...

See http://www.spacetest.org/news.html

I believe that page was authored before last fall, as it references a "recent" link that is actually from May 2012. So payload fairing testing has probably been underway for months.