The CCiCAP Award (PRE- and Post-AWARD DISCUSSION) Thread

[yg1968]

Need to get some sleep after less than three hours last night.

So you all better behave on here!

Maybe, you should change this to a CCiCap party thread just in case.

[Jim]

The Space Shuttle made a good long term career of bring up crew and and a few mT of cargo in one go, Liberty could have been a very good safer replacement but now the only choices will be either crew or cargo which will be ultimately limiting for both NASA and the commercial space industry but hey rejoice 'evil' ATK didn't win so that's ok then lol.  Short-sighted.

Unsubstantiated and far from short sighted.  Liberty was behind and ATK as no experience as a prime, for spacecraft or launch vehicle.

[Rocket Science]

A source told me the WSJ has it wrong. Boeing and Sierra Nevada get full funding and SpaceX 1/2.

Wow…  Then my low odds poll choice wins… This is fun!

[Alan Boyle]

Technically, we were not told how much those three companies are getting, so my article doesn't really assert for sure that Boeing and SpaceX are each getting the "1" and Sierra Nevada is getting the "0.5" ... I do note in the article, however, that WSJ's industry sources are surmising that Sierra Nevada will be getting a smaller share. If you read that article closely, you might get the impression that Andy is reporting what the industry speculation is.

I can't really characterize the sources any further because of the pledges Jay made, but they're the sorts of folks you'd expect to be knowledgeable on the day before this kind of decision is announced. So it's not just a case of speculation.

[robertross]

A source told me the WSJ has it wrong. Boeing and Sierra Nevada get full funding and SpaceX 1/2.

I'd be happy with that news just fine 

[Robotbeat]

A source told me the WSJ has it wrong. Boeing and Sierra Nevada get full funding and SpaceX 1/2.

Ah, there we go. I was waiting for contrarian voices.

I think we will have to wait until tomorrow, in any case.

But if SolSystem is right, it's still not half-bad.

[Orbiter]

That makes much more sense if SpaceX got the partial, the article reported they only got $75 million to upgrade the Dragon where CST-100 got $131 million and SNC got $125 million.

[Lars_J]

I'm very excited if this 'scoop' turns out to be true. Not because it validates my prediction in the poll thread , but because it seems to put a real emphasis on the options that would minimize 'the gap'.

[ChefPat]

Technically, we were not told how much those three companies are getting, so my article doesn't really assert for sure that Boeing and SpaceX are each getting the "1" and Sierra Nevada is getting the "0.5" ... I do note in the article, however, that WSJ's industry sources are surmising that Sierra Nevada will be getting a smaller share. If you read that article closely, you might get the impression that Andy is reporting what the industry speculation is.

I can't really characterize the sources any further because of the pledges Jay made, but they're the sorts of folks you'd expect to be knowledgeable on the day before this kind of decision is announced. So it's not just a case of speculation.

Thank you Alan.

[yg1968]

Good news!  I still kind of wonder about the implications of the "2.5" decision.  Any thoughts on this concern that I posted earlier today?

I sure hope DC gets a piece of the pie!  But regardless of the winners, when I heard about the "2.5 providers" thing my first thought was great, a surefire way to waste more taxpayer funding on another half-hearted project that ultimately leads to nothing.  I would certainly hope that the program is structured in such a way that the "half funded" effort isn't merely a dead-end.

Technically the half award has just as much chances to obtain a crew services contract in 2014 as anybody else. I am not entirely sure but I believe that the partial award is only for the base period.  So NASA could decide to continue with the partial award and drop one of the full awards in 2014 during the optional CCiCap milestones phase. Although I am hoping that no other downselection is made until at least one test flight is completed, so that you at least get a potential additional cargo spacecraft out of it.

[marsavian]

The Space Shuttle made a good long term career of bring up crew and and a few mT of cargo in one go, Liberty could have been a very good safer replacement but now the only choices will be either crew or cargo which will be ultimately limiting for both NASA and the commercial space industry but hey rejoice 'evil' ATK didn't win so that's ok then lol.  Short-sighted.

Unsubstantiated and far from short sighted.  Liberty was behind and ATK as no experience as a prime, for spacecraft or launch vehicle.

Regardless I hope ATK persist with Liberty as I believe it would offer unique manrated payload capabilities ... unless SpaceX ever build that Raptor engine to put on top of a Falcon 9 in which case it could ultimately do the job instead.

[joek]

Technically, we were not told how much those three companies are getting, so my article doesn't really assert for sure that Boeing and SpaceX are each getting the "1" and Sierra Nevada is getting the "0.5" ... I do note in the article, however, that WSJ's industry sources are surmising that Sierra Nevada will be getting a smaller share. If you read that article closely, you might get the impression that Andy is reporting what the industry speculation is.

I can't really characterize the sources any further because of the pledges Jay made, but they're the sorts of folks you'd expect to be knowledgeable on the day before this kind of decision is announced. So it's not just a case of speculation.

Much appreciated; always good to hear from author, most especially you.  About that first sentence...

Is it "Technically, we were not told..." or "We were not told...".  If the former, can you speak to the non-technical part?  Thanks again.

[Rocket Science]

I'm very excited if this 'scoop' turns out to be true. Not because it validates my prediction in the poll thread , but because it seems to put a real emphasis on the options that would minimize 'the gap'.

Well Lars, that is two of us, will the other 11 please step forward...

[Alan Boyle]

Technically, we were not told how much those three companies are getting, so my article doesn't really assert for sure that Boeing and SpaceX are each getting the "1" and Sierra Nevada is getting the "0.5" ... I do note in the article, however, that WSJ's industry sources are surmising that Sierra Nevada will be getting a smaller share. If you read that article closely, you might get the impression that Andy is reporting what the industry speculation is.

I can't really characterize the sources any further because of the pledges Jay made, but they're the sorts of folks you'd expect to be knowledgeable on the day before this kind of decision is announced. So it's not just a case of speculation.

Much appreciated; always good to hear from author, most especially you.  About that first sentence...

Is it "Technically, we were not told..." or "We were not told...".  If the former, can you speak to the non-technical part?  Thanks again.

Ha, in this case, "technically" is just a stylistic flourish, to indicate that I'm taking issue with a twisty detail in the original assertion. I might say that Ron Paul is a conservative. Then someone else might say, "Technically, he's a libertarian." Maybe Ron really is a conservative, by some folks' definition, and maybe Sierra Nevada really is getting a half-share. I do note the WSJ report that industry sources think it's likely that SNC is getting a half-share, but if I may note a technicality, I don't make that assertion myself.

The non-technical part, in this case, has to do with the possibility that SNC really is getting the half-share. Then I'd be less prone to quibble.

[Ronsmytheiii]

While interesting, still does not mean the Fat lady has sung.  AS was pointed out with the Shuttle dispositions, take any "leaks" with a grain of salt and wait for the official NASA announcement tomorrow. 

[joek]

That makes much more sense if SpaceX got the partial, the article reported they only got $75 million to upgrade the Dragon where CST-100 got $131 million and SNC got $125 million.

Equating $ with full vs. partial award may be misleading.  The operative question is: How much money do each of the contestants need from NASA to achieve the program goals?  If, by those numbers, e.g., SpaceX needs $75M, Boeing needs $131M, and SNC needs $250M, then SpaceX = 1.0, Boeing = 1.0, SNC = 0.5.

Ha, in this case, "technically" is just a stylistic flourish, to indicate that I'm taking issue with a twisty detail in the original assertion.

I think I get it? (see above)

[Political Hack Wannabe]

Along with what Joek was saying, it is important to ask the question "how much money was actually asked for?"

Now, I want to clarify - I DON'T KNOW how much SpaceX asked for.  But it could be that they asked for what would be seen as a .5 award.  And yet, in that situation, they may have gotten the money they asked for. 

Worth remembering

[QuantumG]

That makes much more sense if SpaceX got the partial, the article reported they only got $75 million to upgrade the Dragon where CST-100 got $131 million and SNC got $125 million.

Equating $ with full vs. partial award may be misleading.  The operative question is: How much money do each of the contestants need from NASA to achieve the program goals?  If, by those numbers, e.g., SpaceX needs $75M, Boeing needs $131M, and SNC needs $250M, then SpaceX = 1.0, Boeing = 1.0, SNC = 0.5.

Haha.. logic only a politician would love.

[Jim]

That makes much more sense if SpaceX got the partial, the article reported they only got $75 million to upgrade the Dragon where CST-100 got $131 million and SNC got $125 million.

Equating $ with full vs. partial award may be misleading.  The operative question is: How much money do each of the contestants need from NASA to achieve the program goals?  If, by those numbers, e.g., SpaceX needs $75M, Boeing needs $131M, and SNC needs $250M, then SpaceX = 1.0, Boeing = 1.0, SNC = 0.5.

No, it is the money and not the need.  NASA has a pot of money and it will be split into 2/5, 2/5 and 1/5. 

[yg1968]

That makes much more sense if SpaceX got the partial, the article reported they only got $75 million to upgrade the Dragon where CST-100 got $131 million and SNC got $125 million.

That was for CCDev-2. The amount of the award is expected to be around  $1B according to the WSJ. This would mean about $400M for full funding and $200M for partial.