The CCiCAP Award (PRE- and Post-AWARD DISCUSSION) Thread

[jongoff]

Does anyone think they have a real chance of completing a crewed-Dragon capable of propusive landing by 2015 ??

What's so unbelievable about a propulsively assisted parachute landing?

He is promissing a soft landing on legs. There is a ton of development and testing required. No problem with moving to a soft-landing on ground eventually, but is that really the quickest path to an operational system ? I see this adding at least 12 to 24 months to the schedule.

Masten figured out how to do propulsive landing on legs with 5 people and ~$3M. SpaceX is already working on Grasshopper (which is almost ready to fly), and has probably been working GN&C and structures on this for over a year now. Maybe I'm biased because I'm a VTVL guy, but I'm just not seeing this as being that hard. This is similar schedule to what DC-X had, and they've got a simpler system, more money, and more headstart.

~Jon

OK, since you have experience in this area, I'll trust that it's not a big deal. I expect to see videos of actual Dragon hardware landing on a pad in Texas sometime in the next 24 months.

Yeah, they'd be crazy not to do that relatively early. I'm pretty sure the SuperDracos are deep throttleable (I heard from somewhere that they were throttleable pintle engines, so a 20:1 throttle range wouldn't be out of the question), so they might even be able to tether test the vehicle. If the engines are throttleable, that's how I would do it.

~Jon

[yg1968]

Elon is over-promising again.

Does anyone think they have a real chance of completing a crewed-Dragon capable of propusive landing by 2015 ??

I do. They've been working on a lot of this for longer than you realize.

~Jon

That was if they get optional funding. Optional funding is not realistic.

[Star One]

Elon is over-promising again.

Does anyone think they have a real chance of completing a crewed-Dragon capable of propusive landing by 2015 ??

I do. They've been working on a lot of this for longer than you realize.

~Jon

That was if they get optional funding. Optional funding is not realistic.

When you say optional funding what sort of figure are we talking about?

[yg1968]

Optimal means if money was no object when could they be ready. It's probably more than $400M per year for each company. See slide 9 of this presentation: 

[Norm Hartnett]

You know, that's a fair question. How are they going to accommodate other Atlas V launches if they're going to be adding things necessary for crewed launches to LC-41?

Is any consideration being given to developing a Atlas V pad, perhaps as part of the KSC modernization program, on the Kennedy side?

Edited to remove references to chicken. LOL

[zaitcev]

What's so unbelievable about a propulsively assisted parachute landing?

 About the best you could do would be a last second burst to soften the parachute landing. The instant you hit the jets, you lose the lift from the chutes and they collapse.

The first does not follow from the second in any way. Of course you cut the chutes once you're sit on the fire, because otherwise the wind picks them up and they tip you over, duh. Hopefuly as PTK design matures, the way the combo landing works becomes more apparent. Unfortunately, they now talk about first flight in 2018. Uh-huh. BTW, note that their landing solids are canted out at the same crazy angle as Dragon's landing engines. And you probably thought that it was just because Elon had no better place to mount Super Dracos. But in fact that's how much you need to sacrifice to fight the wind and have control margins without throttling.

[Jim]

Why does everyone think Boeing is going to cover all the Atlas HR costs and SNC is going to get a free ride?

[Lobo]

All along I thought as many here did that Being and SpaceX were the front runners. When it was decided that three would be funded, two full and one partial I knew then ATK and Sierra Nevada were going to battle it out for the partial funding. ATK made a valiant run on all fronts. The question remains, will they continue on?

Well, if Block 1B is chosen, sounds like there's a pretty good chance NASA will buy the full 10 pairs of 5-seg boosters from ATK.  Also, I think there's some DoD contract in the works for ATK for their ICBM's.  So perhaps ATK would use the profits form those contracts to proceed with Liberty on their own as they've claimed they would, and compete in the commercial launch market.  Will be interesting to see.  Not sure what would happen to the Liberty capsule though, if there's no need for it to go to the ISS.    Liberty may progress just as a commercial launch system for payloads.

[Downix]

All along I thought as many here did that Being and SpaceX were the front runners. When it was decided that three would be funded, two full and one partial I knew then ATK and Sierra Nevada were going to battle it out for the partial funding. ATK made a valiant run on all fronts. The question remains, will they continue on?

Well, if Block 1B is chosen, sounds like there's a pretty good chance NASA will buy the full 10 pairs of 5-seg boosters from ATK.  Also, I think there's some DoD contract in the works for ATK for their ICBM's.  So perhaps ATK would use the profits form those contracts to proceed with Liberty on their own as they've claimed they would, and compete in the commercial launch market.  Will be interesting to see.  Not sure what would happen to the Liberty capsule though, if there's no need for it to go to the ISS.    Liberty may progress just as a commercial launch system for payloads.

People keep forgetting about Athena III. Combine Liberty and Athena III and you get a full launch system capable of fitting a wide variety of needs.

[simonbp]

Yeah, they'd be crazy not to do that relatively early. I'm pretty sure the SuperDracos are deep throttleable (I heard from somewhere that they were throttleable pintle engines, so a 20:1 throttle range wouldn't be out of the question), so they might even be able to tether test the vehicle. If the engines are throttleable, that's how I would do it.

Though, you guys didn't have to deal with nasty hypergol fumes. Has anyone ever flight tested a hypergol-powered VTVL vehicle?

[simonbp]

Why does everyone think Boeing is going to cover all the Atlas HR costs and SNC is going to get a free ride?

Probably because Boeing got enough money to fly first and SNC is using the same launch contractor. The real cost breakdown, though, will be up to ULA.

[Robotbeat]

All along I thought as many here did that Being and SpaceX were the front runners. When it was decided that three would be funded, two full and one partial I knew then ATK and Sierra Nevada were going to battle it out for the partial funding. ATK made a valiant run on all fronts. The question remains, will they continue on?

Well, if Block 1B is chosen, sounds like there's a pretty good chance NASA will buy the full 10 pairs of 5-seg boosters from ATK.  Also, I think there's some DoD contract in the works for ATK for their ICBM's.  So perhaps ATK would use the profits form those contracts to proceed with Liberty on their own as they've claimed they would, and compete in the commercial launch market.  Will be interesting to see.  Not sure what would happen to the Liberty capsule though, if there's no need for it to go to the ISS.    Liberty may progress just as a commercial launch system for payloads.

People keep forgetting about Athena III. Combine Liberty and Athena III and you get a full launch system capable of fitting a wide variety of needs.

I still am not sure of ATK's willingness to go it alone with the full Liberty. I think the most likely result of not being picked is that they go with Athena III (or something a lot like it) and call it 'Liberty.' It's the most competitive option, IMHO, and leaves the door open for future growth.

[Norm Hartnett]

Why does everyone think Boeing is going to cover all the Atlas HR costs and SNC is going to get a free ride?

Probably because Boeing got enough money to fly first and SNC is using the same launch contractor. The real cost breakdown, though, will be up to ULA.

Both provider's mileposts seem to include integration and testing with the launch vehicle. From a ULA pov it makes a lot of sense to facilitate this with their own money, IMO.

[Robotbeat]

Why does everyone think Boeing is going to cover all the Atlas HR costs and SNC is going to get a free ride?

Probably because Boeing got enough money to fly first and SNC is using the same launch contractor. The real cost breakdown, though, will be up to ULA.

Both provider's mileposts seem to include integration and testing with the launch vehicle. From a ULA pov it makes a lot of sense to facilitate this with their own money, IMO.

ULA sort of lucks out, here, since they aren't contractually obligated to provide a bunch of "skin in the game" like the other folks. They may still choose to do so, but this should be profitable for them.

Boeing will likely pay more money to ULA simply because Boeing is likely to get further along. ULA may choose to facilitate either or both with their own money, but I think money will change hands, here.

[Lobo]

A source told me the WSJ has it wrong. Boeing and Sierra Nevada get full funding and SpaceX 1/2.

If true, this would really make more "overall" sense.  SpaceX is already getting the cargo contract, and looks like they will have a good commercial launch business going in the near future.  They'll be "ok" with a 1/2 award, and still put out a viable crew launcher that Elon will then have available for whatever else he wants to start doing with it.

Boeing would probably be ok on a 1/2 award too, but I think SNC really needs the full award to get DC flying and viable.  At elast quickly.

[yg1968]

Why does everyone think Boeing is going to cover all the Atlas HR costs and SNC is going to get a free ride?

Because SNC is only a partial award and NASA and SNC want to get the most bang for their buck. In any event, regardless of what people think, this is essentially what is going to happen for the CCiCap base period, if you look at each company's milestones:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/672130main_CCiCap%20Announcement.pdf

Boeing has the dual centaur test, EDS test, etc.

In any event, DC could also get a free ride from Falcon 9 if they decided to switch.

[rklaehn]

Though, you guys didn't have to deal with nasty hypergol fumes. Has anyone ever flight tested a hypergol-powered VTVL vehicle?

Does this count?

[yg1968]

A source told me the WSJ has it wrong. Boeing and Sierra Nevada get full funding and SpaceX 1/2.

If true, this would really make more "overall" sense.  SpaceX is already getting the cargo contract, and looks like they will have a good commercial launch business going in the near future.  They'll be "ok" with a 1/2 award, and still put out a viable crew launcher that Elon will then have available for whatever else he wants to start doing with it.

Boeing would probably be ok on a 1/2 award too, but I think SNC really needs the full award to get DC flying and viable.  At elast quickly.

We already know that DC got the partial award.

[DigitalMan]

Sure, they want to get the most bang for their buck, but do they want to be able to launch?

Why does everyone think Boeing is going to cover all the Atlas HR costs and SNC is going to get a free ride?

Because SNC is only a partial award and NASA and SNC want to get the most bang for their buck. In any event, regardless of what people think, this is essentially what is going to happen for the CCiCap base period, if you look at each company's milestones:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/672130main_CCiCap%20Announcement.pdf

Boeing has the dual centaur test, etc.

In any event, DC could also get a free ride from Falcon 9 if they decided to switch.

[Chris Bergin]

I'll throw my article on, cause I can

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2012/08/nasa-ccicap-funding-spacex-boeing-sncs-crew-vehicles/