Poll

Who do you think will win which awards under the CCiCAP announcement on Friday, 3 Aug 2012

Full - DC, Dragon; Half - CST
Full - DC, Dragon; Half - Liberty
Full - CST, Dragon; Half - DC
Full - CST, Dragon; Half - Liberty
Full - Liberty, Dragon; Half - CST
Full - Liberty, Dragon; Half - DC
Full - CST, DC; Half - Dragon
Full - CST, DC; Half - Liberty
Full - CST, Liberty; Half - Dragon
Full - CST, Liberty; Half - DC
Full - DC, Liberty; Half - Dragon
Full - DC, Liberty; Half - CST
Other (please post)

Author Topic: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement  (Read 43422 times)

Offline neilh

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #80 on: 08/02/2012 11:43 pm »
as mentioned previously, nothing's certain until tomorrow morning
Someone is wrong on the Internet.
http://xkcd.com/386/

Offline jongoff

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #81 on: 08/02/2012 11:49 pm »
Interesting note, but Alan Boyle of NBC is reporting on twitter that:

"SpaceX, Boeing and Sierra Nevada selected to receive money from NASA for future spaceships, NBC reports."

I'm personally not going to trust anything until I hear it tomorrow morning, but if true, that would definitely point to me having been too cynical.

~Jon



Wait wait wait they said what?

Where did you see that they cannot possibly know that yet unless they are reading it on our site or L2 and thinking its fact. First of all.

Second of all its not true because we don't even know what the selection was on L2 yet. Its not being released to ANYONE until tomorrow not even people at NASA know.

Would like to see that link.


https://twitter.com/b0yle

Yeah, if this was just coming from a random space blogger, I'd completely blow it off. Coming from Alan Boyle (the lead space writer for what was until recently MSNBC) carries more weight. I'm still not counting it as a sure thing until I see the press release tomorrow, but while things are supposed to not be leaked beforehand, and while some rumors even with credible reporters end up being false, it wouldn't be the first time a reporter found something out that wasn't supposed to be public knowledge yet (much to the chagrin of the government agency that was hoping not to have its thunder stolen).

~Jon

Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #82 on: 08/02/2012 11:53 pm »
Premature chicken counter.

From the WSJ article

Quote
Boeing Co. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. on Friday are expected to win the bulk of as much as $1 billion in federal awards to spur development of next-generation manned spacecraft, according to industry officials.

Emphasis mine. Not a sure thing yet IMO.

Edit: Maybe they are getting their information from here :hehe:
« Last Edit: 08/02/2012 11:55 pm by Norm Hartnett »
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #83 on: 08/03/2012 12:07 am »
Maybe they just decided to base the result on whoever got a plurality of votes in this NSF poll? ;)

J/K. Of course, we won't know until tomorrow. But anonymous leaks do happen, so it's not impossible that this report is right. But the purported result would make the most sense, really, and would fit in pretty well with what NASA has released so far for CCDev2 (preferring both SpaceX and Boeing for being the closest to fielding a working system, with DC making significant progress as well).

Tomorrow, or it's just speculation. But if these reports are true, it'll be a great day for the future of US spaceflight.
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #84 on: 08/03/2012 12:12 am »
Well, I’m happy with it if it’s true and a safe choice… Stay tuned and get ready for some fireworks…
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #85 on: 08/03/2012 12:14 am »
From the WSJ article;
Quote
according to industry officials
Quote
the industry officials said
Quote
according to the officials
Quote
NASA, Sierra Nevada and SpaceX, as the Southern California company is called, declined to comment.

Hum, what is an industry official?

“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #86 on: 08/03/2012 12:14 am »
https://twitter.com/b0yle/status/231162713106182145
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443545504577565532898170476.html


Chicago-based Boeing and closely-held Space Exploration Technologies, based in Hawthorne, Calif., appear poised to split most of the money tentatively earmarked by NASA and lawmakers for such systems, the industry officials said. The total amount available is likely to be between $800 and $1 billion through the middle of 2014.

Closely-held Sierra Nevada Corp., a manufacturer of satellite components and other aerospace hardware that is based in Sparks, Nev., seems likely to emerge with a substantially smaller award, according to the officials. After lengthy battles with congressional leaders, NASA chief Charles Bolden agreed there would be two primary winners, plus a third choice that would receive less funding, they said.



Still just speculation, but at least these had the grace to say "appear to have" or "are likely to"

As for Alan Boyle I think that's premature.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #87 on: 08/03/2012 12:15 am »
Hum, what is an industry official?

It's sloppy journalist talk for "the guy I heard it from".
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #88 on: 08/03/2012 12:16 am »
From the WSJ article;
Quote
according to industry officials
Quote
the industry officials said
Quote
according to the officials
Quote
NASA, Sierra Nevada and SpaceX, as the Southern California company is called, declined to comment.

Hum, what is an industry official?




Probably someone claiming to know something who in actuality knows nothing. Anyone of us on this site could probably claim that and have our comments taken at face value.

This is why I no longer pay attention to the mainstream media because they don't bother to check anything.
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #89 on: 08/03/2012 12:18 am »
Interesting note, but Alan Boyle of NBC is reporting on twitter that:

"SpaceX, Boeing and Sierra Nevada selected to receive money from NASA for future spaceships, NBC reports."

I'm personally not going to trust anything until I hear it tomorrow morning, but if true, that would definitely point to me having been too cynical.

~Jon

The fact that they are reporting this as a fact makes it seem like he knows for sure.

I have been way too cynical myself. The rumors of ATK being the leading candidate threw me off. I should have known better. It should have known that a common sense guy like Gerst would make some common sense picks. 
« Last Edit: 08/03/2012 12:19 am by yg1968 »

Offline marsavian

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #90 on: 08/03/2012 12:32 am »
http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/02/13091777-boeing-spacex-and-sierra-nevada-to-win-nasa-backing-for-spaceships

Teams headed by the Boeing Co., SpaceX and Sierra Nevada Corp. will be receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from NASA over the next 21 months for further development of spaceships capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station, knowledgeable sources told NBC News today.

NASA is to make the official announcement of the winning commercial teams on Friday morning — but NBC News' Cape Canaveral correspondent, Jay Barbree, received word from two sources who were informed of the decision in advance, on condition of anonymity. The sources did not discuss how much money any of the companies would be receiving.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #91 on: 08/03/2012 12:34 am »
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline majormajor42

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #92 on: 08/03/2012 12:35 am »
Saw Boyle on the Twitter feed a few moments ago. Wow. I was less optimistic in the poll.

Would be nice to have a clear picture of the winners tonight. I'm on a night watch and will be asleep tomorrow during the official announcement.

Good for ULA/Atlas too. Looking forward to seeing how they will add crew capability to their pad (or use 39?).

So it was Jay who got the scoop? I wonder what his commentary will be regarding Liberty now.
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Offline marsavian

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #93 on: 08/03/2012 12:41 am »
http://xkcd.com/978/

Indeed, for all we know the sources could be NSF ;). Still think ATK will at least get a partial.

Online robertross

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #94 on: 08/03/2012 12:43 am »
http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/02/13091777-boeing-spacex-and-sierra-nevada-to-win-nasa-backing-for-spaceships

Teams headed by the Boeing Co., SpaceX and Sierra Nevada Corp. will be receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from NASA over the next 21 months for further development of spaceships capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station, knowledgeable sources told NBC News today.

NASA is to make the official announcement of the winning commercial teams on Friday morning — but NBC News' Cape Canaveral correspondent, Jay Barbree, received word from two sources who were informed of the decision in advance, on condition of anonymity. The sources did not discuss how much money any of the companies would be receiving.


I'll still wait for the official announcement.

My picks were: Boeing CST-100 & DC fully funded, with ATK partially funded (due to the politics of it all).

Not that I have anything wrong with SpaceX. I just feel they can do it on their own (and will, regardless). Boeing to me being the most mature company, and DreamChaser being a great secondary 'objective'. But if SpaceX gets the nod, I congratulate them and hope they can expedite this NEED for the ISS.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #95 on: 08/03/2012 12:55 am »
Let's use this thread: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29583.0 - for the reaction to the NBC article.
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Offline beancounter

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #96 on: 08/03/2012 01:38 am »
http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/02/13091777-boeing-spacex-and-sierra-nevada-to-win-nasa-backing-for-spaceships

Teams headed by the Boeing Co., SpaceX and Sierra Nevada Corp. will be receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from NASA over the next 21 months for further development of spaceships capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station, knowledgeable sources told NBC News today.

NASA is to make the official announcement of the winning commercial teams on Friday morning — but NBC News' Cape Canaveral correspondent, Jay Barbree, received word from two sources who were informed of the decision in advance, on condition of anonymity. The sources did not discuss how much money any of the companies would be receiving.


I'll still wait for the official announcement.

My picks were: Boeing CST-100 & DC fully funded, with ATK partially funded (due to the politics of it all).

Not that I have anything wrong with SpaceX. I just feel they can do it on their own (and will, regardless). Boeing to me being the most mature company, and DreamChaser being a great secondary 'objective'. But if SpaceX gets the nod, I congratulate them and hope they can expedite this NEED for the ISS.

No sure I understand your reasoning.  The fact that SpaceX can do it on their own is not a reason for not fully funding them if they are equally or more capable that another contender.  Funding on the basis of capability and capacity should be the requirement, not simply capacity to go it alone.  If that's the case, the Boeing should also not be funded since they have demonstrably greater capacity than SpaceX to continue alone.
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Online robertross

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #97 on: 08/03/2012 02:01 am »
http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/02/13091777-boeing-spacex-and-sierra-nevada-to-win-nasa-backing-for-spaceships

Teams headed by the Boeing Co., SpaceX and Sierra Nevada Corp. will be receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from NASA over the next 21 months for further development of spaceships capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station, knowledgeable sources told NBC News today.

NASA is to make the official announcement of the winning commercial teams on Friday morning — but NBC News' Cape Canaveral correspondent, Jay Barbree, received word from two sources who were informed of the decision in advance, on condition of anonymity. The sources did not discuss how much money any of the companies would be receiving.


I'll still wait for the official announcement.

My picks were: Boeing CST-100 & DC fully funded, with ATK partially funded (due to the politics of it all).

Not that I have anything wrong with SpaceX. I just feel they can do it on their own (and will, regardless). Boeing to me being the most mature company, and DreamChaser being a great secondary 'objective'. But if SpaceX gets the nod, I congratulate them and hope they can expedite this NEED for the ISS.

No sure I understand your reasoning.  The fact that SpaceX can do it on their own is not a reason for not fully funding them if they are equally or more capable that another contender.  Funding on the basis of capability and capacity should be the requirement, not simply capacity to go it alone.  If that's the case, the Boeing should also not be funded since they have demonstrably greater capacity than SpaceX to continue alone.

Boeing has a shareholder base that wants to see a ROI. You need a market for a service, for which only NASA can currently provide. Now they do have a unique capability of landing on solid ground compared to a landing strip or water, but they offer a level of maturity that NASA will be willing to pay for, and they recognize Boeing's position in all this.

SpaceX has repeatedly said they will go it alone to Mars (which requires a manned vehicle), so to me they don't need a fully funded case. A partial award would no doubt be great.

SNC definitely needs the funding, so a full award is in their (and NASA's) best interest for a unique capability.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #98 on: 08/03/2012 02:32 am »
{snip}SpaceX has repeatedly said they will go it alone to Mars (which requires a manned vehicle), so to me they don't need a fully funded case. A partial award would no doubt be great.


If SpaceX went allow they would need the ability to dock with their Mars transfer vehicle, the ability to dock with the ISS is a luxury.  So SpaceX could simply buy one of the Russian docking systems and get on with going to Mars.  This would not help NASA.

Offline Jim

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Re: Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement
« Reply #99 on: 08/03/2012 02:35 am »
{snip}SpaceX has repeatedly said they will go it alone to Mars (which requires a manned vehicle), so to me they don't need a fully funded case. A partial award would no doubt be great.


If SpaceX went allow they would need the ability to dock with their Mars transfer vehicle, the ability to dock with the ISS is a luxury.  So SpaceX could simply buy one of the Russian docking systems and get on with going to Mars.  This would not help NASA.

Huh?  Spacex is not going to Mars within the next ten years, so your point is meaningless. 

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