Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement

[Proponent]

The success of C2/3 makes it hard not to choose Dragon, and Wolf and Hutchison will back the craft produced by SLS's major players, namely Liberty and CST-100.  As for Dream Chaser, well, "Sierra who?"

Sierra Nevada Corporation was previously selected over ATK - and other more well-known companies - for funded work in CCDEV2, as well as in CCDEV1. Your perception of name recognition doesn't come into play.

What I meant to suggest with "Sierra who?" was that SNC lacks obvious support among the relevant politicians.  Before Dragon C2/3, I hypothesize, politicos took less interest in CCDev, and NASA was able to make an award to DC over Liberty on technical grounds.  Since Dragon C2/3, however, the politicos have woken up, and their preferences have become more relevant.

I'm hoping to be wrong.

[Prober]

The success of C2/3 makes it hard not to choose Dragon, and Wolf and Hutchison will back the craft produced by SLS's major players, namely Liberty and CST-100.  As for Dream Chaser, well, "Sierra who?"

Sierra Nevada Corporation was previously selected over ATK - and other more well-known companies - for funded work in CCDEV2, as well as in CCDEV1. Your perception of name recognition doesn't come into play.

What I meant to suggest with "Sierra who?" was that SNC lacks obvious support among the relevant politicians.  Before Dragon C2/3, I hypothesize, politicos took less interest in CCDev, and NASA was able to make an award to DC over Liberty on technical grounds.  Since Dragon C2/3, however, the politicos have woken up, and their preferences have become more relevant.

I'm hoping to be wrong.

I'm hoping your wrong as well ......hoping the politicians couldn't get their hands into the process.

[yg1968]

For what it's worth, I think that Colorado (the home of SNC) is considered to be a key swing state for the upcoming Presidential election.

[Comga]

Just some interesting notes so far.

About 1/6th think SpaceX won't get any award.
About 1/6th think SpaceX will only get a partial.
While about 2/3 think SpaceX will get a full.

About 1/8th think that Boeing won't get any award.
About 1/8th think that Boeing will only get a partial.
While about 3/4 think Boeing will get a full.

About 2/5ths think that ATK won't get any award.
About 1/5th think they'll only get a partial.
Which leaves about 2/5ths that think they'll get a full award.

About 1/4 think SNC won't get any award.
About 1/2 think SNC will only get a partial.
Which leaves about 1/4 think they'll get a full award.

Fun poll so far.

~Jon

Alternative way to look at it
Full Funding   
CST        75% (of the respondents feel that CST-100 will get full funding)
Dragon   59%
DC         27%
Liberty    23%
Partial Funding   
CST        12%
Dragon    23%
DC          46%
Liberty    19%
No Funding   
CST         12%
Dragon    16%
DC          27%
Liberty     45% (of the respondents think that Liberty wil get no funding)

This ignores (other)
Tomorrow we see about "the wisdom of crowds".

[savuporo]

......hoping the politicians couldn't get their hands into the process.

That would be novel.

[Comga]

I think Gerst will see the same logic the rest of us do: CST and DC are using the same launch vehicle, so they only need 1.5 funding. The Congress wants to close the gap as fast as possible, so that means SpaceX needs full funding.

Full CST, Dragon; Half - DC is the logical choice.

Liberty will be invited to continue unfunded.

That's exactly how I voted. But I admit that I am assuming that logical choices will be made by NASA (and not political ones). That's a big assumption...

How about that?  I agree with BOTH QuantumG and YG1968!

However, I see the abhorent logic in the CST-DC-Liberty choice.  I don't fully understand the government purchase rights aspect.

[mr. mark]

We will know in less than 24 hours. Some of us here have been waiting for this down select for some time now....

[Robotbeat]

Hopefully the N.I.H. Syndrome doesn't kill the solution that's by far furthest along. If this poll is anything to go by (it isn't, not by a long shot), that shouldn't be a problem.

[Robert Thompson]

Liberty gets full via invisible hand and PR blitz.

[Robotbeat]

Liberty gets full via invisible hand and PR blitz.

"Invisible hand"? Adam Smith is crying.

[greengoreironcore]

is excalibur-almaz in the running for an award in this round?

[Jim]

is excalibur-almaz in the running for an award in this round?

no

[Lars_J]

is excalibur-almaz in the running for an award in this round?

Technically perhaps, but their recent announcement that they were concentrating on lunar flights seems to imply that they either withdrew their proposal, or realize that they have no chance. Just my interpretation.

(I'm still baffled that they were part of CCDEV-2, although unfounded, since it is a UK based group with only old soviet hardware)

[jongoff]

Interesting note, but Alan Boyle of NBC is reporting on twitter that:

"SpaceX, Boeing and Sierra Nevada selected to receive money from NASA for future spaceships, NBC reports."

I'm personally not going to trust anything until I hear it tomorrow morning, but if true, that would definitely point to me having been too cynical.

~Jon

[FinalFrontier]

Interesting note, but Alan Boyle of NBC is reporting on twitter that:

"SpaceX, Boeing and Sierra Nevada selected to receive money from NASA for future spaceships, NBC reports."

I'm personally not going to trust anything until I hear it tomorrow morning, but if true, that would definitely point to me having been too cynical.

~Jon

Wait wait wait they said what?

Where did you see that they cannot possibly know that yet unless they are reading it on our site or L2 and thinking its fact. First of all.

Second of all its not true because we don't even know what the selection was on L2 yet. Its not being released to ANYONE until tomorrow not even people at NASA know.

Would like to see that link.

[Thorny]

Wall Street Journal reporting it is Boeing and SpaceX. I don't subscribe and therefore can't read the entire article to see who got the 1/2 award.

[marsavian]

https://twitter.com/b0yle/status/231162713106182145
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443545504577565532898170476.html


Chicago-based Boeing and closely-held Space Exploration Technologies, based in Hawthorne, Calif., appear poised to split most of the money tentatively earmarked by NASA and lawmakers for such systems, the industry officials said. The total amount available is likely to be between $800 and $1 billion through the middle of 2014.

Closely-held Sierra Nevada Corp., a manufacturer of satellite components and other aerospace hardware that is based in Sparks, Nev., seems likely to emerge with a substantially smaller award, according to the officials. After lengthy battles with congressional leaders, NASA chief Charles Bolden agreed there would be two primary winners, plus a third choice that would receive less funding, they said.

[Rocket Science]

Interesting note, but Alan Boyle of NBC is reporting on twitter that:

"SpaceX, Boeing and Sierra Nevada selected to receive money from NASA for future spaceships, NBC reports."

I'm personally not going to trust anything until I hear it tomorrow morning, but if true, that would definitely point to me having been too cynical.

~Jon

Wait wait wait they said what?

Where did you see that they cannot possibly know that yet unless they are reading it on our site or L2 and thinking its fact. First of all.

Second of all its not true because we don't even know what the selection was on L2 yet. Its not being released to ANYONE until tomorrow not even people at NASA know.

Would like to see that link.

https://twitter.com/b0yle

[Comga]

3/4th of the responses expected Boeing to get full funding and were correct
3/5th of the responses expected SpaceX to get full funding and were correct
only 1/4th of the responses expected Liberty or DreamChaser to get full funding, which didn't happen.

Almost half of the responses ecpected DC to get partial funding, over twice any of the others, and that was the choice.

Almost half of the responses ecpected Liberty to get no funding, over twice any of the others, and that was the choice.

What a smart group we are!  (Or expect to be when the official announcement is made tomorrow.)

[QuantumG]

What a smart group we are!  (Or expect to be when the official announcement is made tomorrow.)

Premature chicken counter.