Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement

[anonymous1138]

With no L2 access to base my assumptions on...

NASA want's the 5 seg...
Liberty has said little about their capsule... but..
CST seems to have a lot a familiar components, adaptability to different LV...
DC has the pretty (NASA Marketable) face...
Dragon seems to have a full head of steam.... sooooo...

DC & Dragon mostly full funding.
Liberty Partial funding
CST get's thrown some kind of small bone and BO maybe an unfunded SAA?

Wild speculation being what it is and all....

Blue Origin is not in the running at this stage.

[SpacexULA]

Full funding for Dragon and CTS-100, because spacecraft need wings for reentry about as much as they need gills for splashdown.

ATK gets 1/2 funding, because they are ATK, and anything is better than a bird shaped spacecraft.

[SpacemanInSPACE]

I voted full CST, ATK, half DC, because cynicism.

right there with you,

- From a major SpaceX fan

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Full rewards:

CST-100 - well duh, a solid business and technology case, from one of the biggest aerospace companies. I don't see any reason not to issue a full funding.

Dreamchaser - I know that this is risky, but somehow I think the "divergency" factor will chime in, and recent progress on the DC shows that it has a strong case to make, not to mention the cost of running the DC is supposingly lower than the CST-100 (saw that somewhere else...).

Partial reward:

ATK Liberty - They have been trying very hard to squeeze in, and the use of KSC facilities may be a big factor. That said, their late start and development of a new launch vehicle makes me think that they will only got half of a pie.

Unfunded SAA:

SpaceX Dragon - They will continue to play a vital role, but that does not mean that it has to be a funded award. Given that SpaceX already got the CRS award and prefers to fund their own program if possible, may be they will got an unfunded award?

GPS

[Prober]

I went with CST, Liberty with DC as partial.  This is why:

close to my pick,
out of 87 users I was one of 3 that voted for: Full - DC, Liberty; Half - CST

[Lars_J]

SpaceX Dragon - They will continue to play a vital role, but that does not mean that it has to be a funded award. Given that SpaceX already got the CRS award and prefers to fund their own program if possible, may be they will got an unfunded award?

What gives you the idea that they "prefer to fund their own program"? This notion has no basis in fact. If that was the case, they would have bowed out of CCiCAP (and CCDEV-2) a long time ago. Instead they have been selling the idea of Crew Dragon to NASA (publicly and privately) for as long as the concept of a crewed Dragon has existed.

[neilh]

Would there be interest in doing another poll with exactly the same options on who the voter thinks SHOULD get the awards, or would that be overdoing it?

Any objections to creating such a poll? The more I think about it, the more curious I am about how the WOULD and SHOULD responses will differ.

[Lars_J]

Would there be interest in doing another poll with exactly the same options on who the voter thinks SHOULD get the awards, or would that be overdoing it?

Any objections to creating such a poll? The more I think about it, the more curious I am about how the WOULD and SHOULD responses will differ.

It is meaningless at this point. This poll has already been contaminated with with "should" or "hope" votes - so separating them out properly would require restarting this poll as well.

[Ronsmytheiii]

The two main choices seem clear, ATK and Boeing. The latter is the " safest" option that reassures Congress, and the former as hearing lots of praise for them in places ( of course not here ) between SpaceX and SNC for partial, picked SNC as they would expand commercial supply base ( ie crew and cargo) SpaceX can always come back and bid on commercial crew contract as have a flying spacecraft.

Trying to think like a NASA manager in the above.

[bubbagret]

With no L2 access to base my assumptions on...

NASA want's the 5 seg...
Liberty has said little about their capsule... but..
CST seems to have a lot a familiar components, adaptability to different LV...
DC has the pretty (NASA Marketable) face...
Dragon seems to have a full head of steam.... sooooo...

DC & Dragon mostly full funding.
Liberty Partial funding
CST get's thrown some kind of small bone and BO maybe an unfunded SAA?

Wild speculation being what it is and all....

Blue Origin is not in the running at this stage.

Hmmm... I wasn't aware of that. How and when were they disqualified?

[Lars_J]

Blue Origin is not in the running at this stage.

Hmmm... I wasn't aware of that. How and when were they disqualified?

They are not disqualified. The "not in the running" is probably meant as "very unlikely to win".

Of course, this is all based on public information from Blue origin - which there is little of.

[bubbagret]

Blue Origin is not in the running at this stage.

Hmmm... I wasn't aware of that. How and when were they disqualified?

They are not disqualified. The "not in the running" is probably meant as "very unlikely to win".

Of course, this is all based on public information from Blue origin - which there is little of.

That's what I thought.

[joek]

Short form (long form see this post):
1. Boeing (full)
2. SpaceX (full)
3. SNC (partial)

[jongoff]

Just some interesting notes so far.

About 1/6th think SpaceX won't get any award.
About 1/6th think SpaceX will only get a partial.
While about 2/3 think SpaceX will get a full.

About 1/8th think that Boeing won't get any award.
About 1/8th think that Boeing will only get a partial.
While about 3/4 think Boeing will get a full.

About 2/5ths think that ATK won't get any award.
About 1/5th think they'll only get a partial.
Which leaves about 2/5ths that think they'll get a full award.

About 1/4 think SNC won't get any award.
About 1/2 think SNC will only get a partial.
Which leaves about 1/4 think they'll get a full award.

Fun poll so far.

~Jon

[Proponent]

The deal about down-selecting to two and a half providers more or less coincided with the flight of Dragon C2/3, which muted commercial crew's loudest critics.  I suspect a deal was struck at that time essentially between Rep. Wolf and Sen. Hutchison on the one hand and the administration on the other.  The success of C2/3 makes it hard not to choose Dragon, and Wolf and Hutchison will back the craft produced by SLS's major players, namely Liberty and CST-100.  As for Dream Chaser, well, "Sierra who?"

That leaves the question of who gets just half an award.  I'm going to guess that's CST-100, with full awards to Dragon and Liberty.  My second guess would be Liberty getting the half award.

[Dappa]

I voted Full - CST, DC; Half - Dragon.

I think this is about creating options, not about who has the longest track record, not about who's currently ahead. So I thought: which provider could gain the most from this award?

Not Liberty, because funding a launch vehicle is not what NASA asked for. It may be part of an integrated capability, but the fact remains that two vehicles have to be developed here. As a result ATK gets only 'half' the amount of development done on their capsule, for the same amount of funding.

Dragon appears to be ahead of DC and CST because it has some flight experience, therefore it needs only half an award.

This leaves CST-100 and DC, they would get the full awards. As a result, NASA gets three systems that are equally ready to launch when CCiCap is over. There's no 'backup provider' lagging behind, leaving options open for the next round of CCP awards.

[anonymous1138]

The success of C2/3 makes it hard not to choose Dragon, and Wolf and Hutchison will back the craft produced by SLS's major players, namely Liberty and CST-100.  As for Dream Chaser, well, "Sierra who?"

Sierra Nevada Corporation was previously selected over ATK - and other more well-known companies - for funded work in CCDEV2, as well as in CCDEV1. Your perception of name recognition doesn't come into play.

[DaveH62]

The basic issue is getting crew to space as soon as possible, while managing risk. SpaceX appears to be in the lead, with a working and flight tested capsule. They have work to do on LAS and more, but they have orbital flight testing. SpaceX should get full funding.
NASA also has to convince congress it is managing risk by selecting a provider that has a long history of success in space flight, and complex flight systems. Boeing and ATK both would satisfy Congress in that regard, but Boeing is in front of ATK in development cycle and would likely be 12-18 months in front of any expedited ATK deliverable, so Boeing gets full funding.
For partial, a case for DC is compelling, since they only need to work on the crew ship, while Boeing man rates Atlas. NASA loses some platform diversity with DC, since you will have 3 systems and 2 rockets, however, NASA proves validity of EELV concept with DC, with two platforms on the same rocket. I think the choice between DC and ATK will come down to political cover and ATK will win. I would like DC on the ticket, but ATK is likely needed for various reasons. ATK will be pushing very hard, since this program can help spread their overhead out and make them more competitive for SLS.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

With 146 votes:
Vehicle getting some type of award is:
86% for CST
82% Dragon
71% DC
55% Liberty
BO is definitly out as far as what their chances are believed to be.

[Jim]

For partial, a case for DC is compelling, since they only need to work on the crew ship, while Boeing man rates Atlas.

That is not a given.  DC may have to provide funds for Atlas