Poll on CCiCAP Selection Announcement

[LegendCJS]

My vote was not for what I think will happen, but what I want to happen.  (Full Dragon, CST, half DC).

[Eer]

With absolutely no basis for my position:

Full:  CST-100, Liberty
Half:  Dragon

Dragon gets 1/2, both because SpX may want to limit Govt' claims on their IP and interference with their plans, but also have shown that NASA investment in time and direction pays off with them.  The half would provide joint funding of crew effort, with NASA imprimatur on the result.  Their cargo award would also be viewed as them already having a bite of the apple.

Boeing and ATK are 'safe' bets, politically, and both arguably are 'more used to' Govt funded development efforts.

If there are only 3 winners, DC loses as the "odd man out".

But - purely a guess from a long, long way away from the action.

[Orbiter]

Went with Full - DC, Liberty; Half - CST.

Orbiter

[A_M_Swallow]

I went with:

Full - CST100 + man-rate Atlas 5, Dragon + man-rate Falcon 9

Half - DreamChaser (as no launch vehicle)

[Silmfeanor]

Full - CST, Dragon; Half - Liberty

it pains me not to see DC in this list, but someone's gotta lose out. From the chatter around here, I guess ATK has to get something. Not getting SpaceX would upset newspace lobby / the great press SpaceX has getting, so it might be a political necessity.
Then, CST because it's no-nonsense from a big aerospace company. I'd love DC in its place, but I think the diffirence in experience and company connections might make the diffirence.

What I want:
Full - CST, Dragon, DC; half - liberty, blue origin.
1.5 award too much, but hey, I can dream...

[QuantumG]

I think Gerst will see the same logic the rest of us do: CST and DC are using the same launch vehicle, so they only need 1.5 funding. The Congress wants to close the gap as fast as possible, so that means SpaceX needs full funding.

Full CST, Dragon; Half - DC is the logical choice.

Liberty will be invited to continue unfunded.

[SimonFD]

I've gone with Full for Liberty and Dream Chaser plus half a SpaceX.
I think Liberty because ATK and Ares I just won't go away seemingly, Dream Chaser because I think a lot of peeps miss the space plane thing and half for SpaceX because of how much they've achieved so far tempered by NASA not wanting to be upstaged by a smartass 

Not very logical or well thought out I know but then I've been reading this site for a few years...............

[yg1968]

I think Gerst will see the same logic the rest of us do: CST and DC are using the same launch vehicle, so they only need 1.5 funding. The Congress wants to close the gap as fast as possible, so that means SpaceX needs full funding.

Full CST, Dragon; Half - DC is the logical choice.

Liberty will be invited to continue unfunded.

That's exactly how I voted. But I admit that I am assuming that logical choices will be made by NASA (and not political ones). That's a big assumption...

[bubbagret]

With no L2 access to base my assumptions on...

NASA want's the 5 seg...
Liberty has said little about their capsule... but..
CST seems to have a lot a familiar components, adaptability to different LV...
DC has the pretty (NASA Marketable) face...
Dragon seems to have a full head of steam.... sooooo...

DC & Dragon mostly full funding.
Liberty Partial funding
CST get's thrown some kind of small bone and BO maybe an unfunded SAA?

Wild speculation being what it is and all....

[mr. mark]

I think Chris spilled the beans when he said he hoped Dreamchaser gets funding. Of course, we all know he knows who's getting funding already so, he is throwing us a bone. So DC will get some kind of funding. The question has to be is SpaceX in or out, will it be the big two who get the majority of the funding ATK and Boeing? My guess is that SpaceX is already out but, will most likely play a role in BEO exploration some time in the future. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.     

[Downix]

I went with CST, Liberty with DC as partial.  This is why:

Boeing has a solid track record, to eliminate CST would be foolish.

ATK has made a solid case for Liberty, and won me over (which is saying something due to my history).

DC due to sharing a launch vehicle with Boeing, saving costs.

SpaceX will be offered an unfunded SAA to prevent loss of access but no longer will be quite as locked into NASA specs. This would  fit well with their model.

Excalibur Almaz will also be offered an unfunded SAA.

Work on Atlas V will happen under Boeing's contract.

[QuantumG]

I think Chris spilled the beans when he said he hoped Dreamchaser gets funding. Of course, we all know he knows who's getting funding already so, he is throwing us a bone. So DC will get some kind of funding.     

Did you go to the Fox Mulder school of deduction?

[mr. mark]

You can laugh but, I think that's exactly what Chris did. We shall see on Friday. I hope I'm wrong about SpaceX.

[FinalFrontier]

Hum, fully half of the 30 voters at this time expect ATK/Liberty to get something. That is scary.

Because they probably will.

[FinalFrontier]

You can laugh but, I think that's exactly what Chris did. We shall see on Friday. I hope I'm wrong about SpaceX.

That is not at all what he did and he himself would not know that yet either, and if he did he would not say so not even on L2 as its proprietary information at this time.

DC may not get anything it remains to be seen. Deducing that because someone said they hope does means it will is fallacy.

[QuantumG]

That is not at all what he did and he himself would not know that yet either, and if he did he would not say so not even on L2 as its proprietary information at this time.

DC may not get anything it remains to be seen. Deducing that because someone said they hope does means it will is fallacy.

That's what Chris wants you to believe! 

[FinalFrontier]

That is not at all what he did and he himself would not know that yet either, and if he did he would not say so not even on L2 as its proprietary information at this time.

DC may not get anything it remains to be seen. Deducing that because someone said they hope does means it will is fallacy.

That's what Chris wants you to believe! 

Excuse me while I get my tinfoil hat.

[neilh]

Would there be interest in doing another poll with exactly the same options on who the voter thinks SHOULD get the awards, or would that be overdoing it?

[spectre9]

Full funding

CST-100

KBH seems to like Boeing but that's as political as I want to get. Makes heavy use of simple, safe, legacy technology and represents private investments made by Bigelow.

Dragon

Makes use of new parts but has been tested on orbit. How, where and when SpaceX will launch the crew with their busy manifest is the unknown for me. Represents the biggest private investment by Musk. Has solar panels too which makes it much safer as a free flyer.

Partial funding

ATK/Astrium

Riskiest but getting a launcher at KSC is worth throwing some dough at. Liberty has already been spending money just making sure they had an integrated system going unfunded through the last round.

Found CCM as part of this video, doesn't seem that bad.



Missing out

Dreamchaser.

New flashy technology abound and I don't see the private investments being made. Also CO is already building a much more expensive spacecraft.

[mr. mark]

Better still if we only had one of these.