SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Jason 3 - SLC-4E Vandenberg - Jan 17, 2016 - DISCUSSION

[QuantumG]

I can't for the life of me model anything on short notice, but here's an exceedingly quick representation of what it looks like we're seeing, first in a perspective similar to the camera, then in an imaginary view from a bird's eye perspective. The piles of scorched crap visible in the foreground of the photography are what's left of the tankage.

Okay, I could buy that.

[Dante80]

I don't know how anybody is seeing the rocket body, it appears to be entirely gone.

I see only the very bottom of the rocket; the octoweb as seen from above (as if from inside the stage), and one landing leg still attached to the octoweb, also seen from above.   See crude sketch.

I can't for the life of me model anything on short notice, but here's an exceedingly quick representation of what it looks like we're seeing, first in a perspective similar to the camera, then in an imaginary view from a bird's eye perspective. The piles of scorched crap visible in the foreground of the photography are what's left of the tankage.

Yep, those make sense.

[Rhyshaelkan]

So much misinformation on Twitter. Wish people would look to the source for answers. Instead of other uninformed people.

[Herb Schaltegger]

I can't for the life of me model anything on short notice ...

If you're the same NovaSilisko who was a founding developer of KSP at Squad, I'm not questioning your modeling skills at all.

And if you're not, you still did a decent job here (IMHO). I'll buy it in the absence of any better photos that would show otherwise.

[punder]

I can't for the life of me model anything on short notice

Very funny. How many seconds did it take you?

[NovaSilisko]

I can't for the life of me model anything on short notice

Very funny. How many seconds did it take you?

I was considering finding a freely available Falcon 9/barge model and playing surgeon with them but decided it would be faster to just do a crude leg + octaweb + steal an engine bell I already had modeled instead. Mainly, I just didn't wanna be scooped by someone doing the same thing 

[Tuts36]

I can't for the life of me model anything on short notice, but here's an exceedingly quick representation of what it looks like we're seeing, first in a perspective similar to the camera, then in an imaginary view from a bird's eye perspective. The piles of scorched crap visible in the foreground of the photography are what's left of the tankage.

So most of the stage probably ended up going over the side after landing flat, but the engines are still on ASDS and possibly intact enough to analyze further?

[sewebster]

Are the water cannons spraying salt or fresh water? If fresh, it seemed like they had them started up fairly early (though maybe they just have huge tanks and don't care). If salt, were they supposed to track the stage as it came in? Seems like maybe not the best idea to spray salt water at things. Or maybe they were spraying water on something else entirely...?

[punder]

Are the water cannons spraying salt or fresh water? If fresh, it seemed like they had them started up fairly early (though maybe they just have huge tanks and don't care). If salt, were they supposed to track the stage as it came in? Seems like maybe not the best idea to spray salt water at things. Or maybe they were spraying water on something else entirely...?

Seems like they would need a boatload (literally) of fresh water to maintain it that long.

[georgegassaway]

So if tweets are accurate, that landing speed was OK and it just tipped over after landing, why is there no leg sticking up towards the sky? Should see the leg opposite of the leg that folded up

If indeed we are seeing the bottom of the F9, why would all of the engines be smashed if it landed OK and simply tipped over due to a failed leg locking latch? 

Those are rhetorical questions. I suspect that videos of the landing will conflict with some key points of what's been tweeted. 

- George Gassaway

[ugordan]

So if tweets are accurate, that landing speed was OK and it just tipped over after landing, why is there no leg sticking up towards the sky?

Because the stage obviously exploded upon tipping over.

[Dante80]

So if tweets are accurate, that landing speed was OK and it just tipped over after landing, why is there no leg sticking up towards the sky? Should see the leg opposite of the leg that folded up

If indeed we are seeing the bottom of the F9, why would all of the engines be smashed if it landed OK and simply tipped over due to a failed leg locking latch? 

Those are rhetorical questions. I suspect that videos of the landing will conflict with some key points of what's been tweeted. 

- George Gassaway

Since SpaceX - I presume - intends to release the video (and they are the only ones that have it), why would they tweet "conflicting" facts about what happened?

Moreover, if the stage tipped over - pressurized as it was - anything we see now is the result of an explosion. That makes judging what happened from a single photo after the fact very difficult.

[Lars-J]

So if tweets are accurate, that landing speed was OK and it just tipped over after landing, why is there no leg sticking up towards the sky? Should see the leg opposite of the leg that folded up

If indeed we are seeing the bottom of the F9, why would all of the engines be smashed if it landed OK and simply tipped over due to a failed leg locking latch? 

Those are rhetorical questions. I suspect that videos of the landing will conflict with some key points of what's been tweeted. 

- George Gassaway

No, only conflict with misinterpretations of the image. You are likely seeing the top of the octaweb. The stage tanks and other legs are gone, blown off the barge.

[docmordrid]

Zoomed. Prop spider?

[Lars-J]

Zoomed. Spider?

Yep, looks like it. The engines (if any remain) would be on the other side.

[punder]

So if tweets are accurate, that landing speed was OK and it just tipped over after landing, why is there no leg sticking up towards the sky? Should see the leg opposite of the leg that folded up

If indeed we are seeing the bottom of the F9, why would all of the engines be smashed if it landed OK and simply tipped over due to a failed leg locking latch? 

Those are rhetorical questions. I suspect that videos of the landing will conflict with some key points of what's been tweeted. 

- George Gassaway

The surviving leg is probably the one most opposite from the side of the tank unzip. I can't decide if that means it's the leg that failed, or opposite from the leg that failed. And, I think we are looking at the top of the octaweb, and the engines may be relatively undamaged on the other side. If the pressure of the explosion escapes from weakest point (tank wall, or tank interface with octaweb) that implies (to me, not an engineer) that the engines should be okay. Some of them at least.

[Hotblack Desiato]

Any of my Twitter followers paramedics? I'm thinking: Medivac her to McGregor and hook up a RP-1 IV line, stat.

Not a paramedic, but I had a few courses.

First, get her into a stable recovery position. Then she needs 9x engine massage, and she needs desperately artificial LOX respiration.  After that, when she is stable, give her 1 unit of RP-1 per minute, till she recovers. But she won't be the same again...

[MarsInMyLifetime]

So most of the stage probably ended up going over the side after landing flat, but the engines are still on ASDS and possibly intact enough to analyze further?

Burst tanks turn into sheet metal that tends to lay flat--as we've seen on previous landing pieces brought back to Florida. Most of the resilient mass is in the engine structure. Thankfully this time it did not get shoved over the edge. But I'm willing to bet it got rolled around a bit, snapping off all but this one leg.

[Grandpa to Two]

I'm wondering if one of you talented people could estimate the up and down movement of the ASDS from the video prior to the freeze. There is a section on the video feed of the launch that shows the horizon relative to the deck throughout a couple of peaks and valleys. It would be interesting to know the exact wave heights and deck movement for future ASDS landing attempts.

[Johnnyhinbos]

Seems the (likely) loss of stage wasn't related to the stage tipping under the sea state, although it may have done regardless, we don't know. Seems one of the legs didn't lock correctly - exactly the same thing would have occurred if it had returned to launch site.

Now everybody stop bullying that sweet innocent drone ship. :X  It's not her fault she's clumsy.

Well, I think it's highly possible the two are related. The 1.1 version of the bird has legs that deploy closer to landing than the newer version. Therefore, with a heavy deck cant, the deck could have met the stage before the legs were fully deployed (locked), hence the problem. If so then landing on land wouldn't have this issue (plus the earlier opening legs of the newer ver of booster)