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#900 by bombay on 03 Apr, 2007 01:05
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Being that the ULA will be subjected to intense engineering rigor, when Centaur moves to Decatur and if the appropriate people refuse to go along for the ride, the Air Force/Aerospace should demand that the Centaur be completely requalified. Considering that 50 years of knowhow that was passed down from generation to generation would no longer be part of the build or inspection process, engineering rigor should demand a complete requalification.
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#901 by skywalker on 03 Apr, 2007 01:18
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As I was trying to say above there is a quote some where on this site that discussed that fact that tribal knowledge resides in the the people not the company and the managers in my opinion are the company and the worker-bees are the people. Needless to say (so why am I saying it?) ULA is in trouble with Delta and will be in trouble with Atlas if they move Centaur to Decatur pure and simple!
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#902 by bombay on 03 Apr, 2007 01:21
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WHAP - 2/4/2007 9:07 AM
"In order to ensure the Department achieves the national security benefits, the companies need to retain their critical capabilities through the transition and relocation of key employees."QuoteDexter - 1/4/2007 10:06 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_5562832
350 out of 900 - 38% from HB
24 out of 100 from Denver to Decatur. 24%
The numbers for the HB move are consistent (maybe a little low - probably some rounding going on). BTW, those are NOT "working level" folks in that article.
Where did the 24 of 100 come from? I didn't think any offers had been made for moves to Decatur yet.
"We are concerned that these employees remain with the launch vehicle operations to provide the quality, reliability, innovation, and "best of breed" benefits to the Department."
These are a couple of quotes from the DoD to the FTC to justify the formation of ULA. It's beginning to look like every facet of ULA critical capabilities from engineering down to the factory floor will be suffering big-time by years end. -
#903 by porthos on 03 Apr, 2007 01:29
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bombay - 2/4/2007 7:55 PM
QuoteDexter - 30/3/2007 11:57 PM
You could argue that Atlas engineering personnel could absorb Delta engineering deficiencies in personnel based on the fact that common rules/laws of engineering will apply to either rocket.QuoteGus - 30/3/2007 11:37 PM
Quotebombay - 29/3/2007 7:55 PM
"I don't know enough about each shop to talk about the techs - good workmanship on both sides. I can only hope enough tribal knowledge moves to Decatur."
I've pondered the above partial quote by Antares about retention of tribal knowledge in Decatur. I've concluded that the ULA has made a decision that will take years, at great expense and risk, to overcome.
What is tribal knowledge? In the manufacturing world it's knowing what it takes to actually build a quality product that's not covered on a blue print, CAD model, planning instructions, or any other form of documentation. It's knowledge gained through years of experience of trial and error.
In the case of Centaur where the entire rocket is built in house from pulling raw material to completion, what can Decatur personnel provide to build a Centaur should, as anticipated, the critical Centaur production engineers and mechanics, those with all of the tribal knowledge refuse to go to Decatur? Who else knows how to build a thin guage stainless balloon without crumpling the thing up like a prune?
Was there even one iota of thought that went into the decision to move all production to Decatur?
This is a very good point because in all of the ULA factories, the metal of choice is Aluminum except in San Diego where it is stainless steel. Here, in Denver and Harlingen as well, there is more reliance on machined aluminum isogrid panels bought from suppliers with less internal fabrication and more assembly of bolted on components. In San Diego, the process starts out with raw material and fabricates the balloon tank with resistance welding and is extremely labor intensive. A lack of tribal knowledge transfer from there would put us in deep do-do.
So what happens when only 10% relocate like the HB acceptance?
The same can't be said for Centaur manufacturing. There's nothing in common between Centaur manufacturing and Atlas/Delta booster or Delta upperstage, absolutely nothing! There's no answer to what the ULA will do if the right people don't follow Centaur to Decatur.
I am a new watcher and contributor. I have read the 60+ pages of this thread, it is very interesting. Bombay makes a good point here. Centaur manufacturing is different, very different not only in the process of starting with raw material, but also with the welding. San Diego site is a world class welding facility, I have met the weld engineers from their and all of us (well at least the people I know) in the Welding world realize they do what no one else does, it is top notch. So if the weld engineers do not move to Decatur, Centaur manufacturing will struggle. I am not even sure of the other processes, but just ensuring the weld quality will be very difficult. -
#904 by Gus on 03 Apr, 2007 04:35
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The latest news report on this web site has the lunar lander study, http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=5063 that would use to Centaur to get to the moon. I have seen the presentations using the Wide Body Centaur for this concept but this is the first time with the standard 10 foot Centaur. Requalifying the Centaur is an interesting concept and one used when changing suppliers on other controlled components.
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#905 by Antares on 03 Apr, 2007 05:45
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porthos - 2/4/2007 9:29 PM
What about the state of the art automated friction stir welding machines in Decatur? An Atlas-Centaur with FSW would seem to be a giant leap forward.
So if the weld engineers do not move to Decatur, Centaur manufacturing will struggle. I am not even sure of the other processes, but just ensuring the weld quality will be very difficult. -
#906 by Propforce on 03 Apr, 2007 07:40
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Gus - 2/4/2007 9:35 PM
The latest news report on this web site has the lunar lander study, http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=5063 that would use to Centaur to get to the moon. I have seen the presentations using the Wide Body Centaur for this concept but this is the first time with the standard 10 foot Centaur. Requalifying the Centaur is an interesting concept and one used when changing suppliers on other controlled components.
Gus,
I was at one of the conferences where this concept was presented. As you would know, that was basically a marketing paper. A lot of details would need to be flushed out before anyone has any idea what this "Centaur" will look like at the end.
I would point out that landing Centaur horizontally would require a complete different load path. Your prop mass fraction would suffer quite a bit. You will end up with any but looking like a current Centaur except for the license plate. So I wouldn't worry about the manufacturing capability for this concept just yet.
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#907 by kevin-rf on 03 Apr, 2007 12:30
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I thought they where talking about switching from Stainless to Al Li for Centuar wide body. So Wide body would have to be fully recertfied and would use a different manufacturing process anyway.
A good way to hide the recert costs from the move if you ask me... Instead of moving the current Centuar line, start up the new wide body line in a new location instead. -
#908 by Dexter on 03 Apr, 2007 13:49
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kevin-rf - 3/4/2007 7:30 AM
I thought they where talking about switching from Stainless to Al Li for Centuar wide body. So Wide body would have to be fully recertfied and would use a different manufacturing process anyway.
A good way to hide the recert costs from the move if you ask me... Instead of moving the current Centuar line, start up the new wide body line in a new location instead.Sounds unethical to me.
I wonder when we will be seeing the promised $150 million dollar savings that was promised at the begining?
Or has that been hidden as well?
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#909 by Jim on 03 Apr, 2007 13:54
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Dexter - 3/4/2007 9:49 AM
Quotekevin-rf - 3/4/2007 7:30 AM
I thought they where talking about switching from Stainless to Al Li for Centuar wide body. So Wide body would have to be fully recertfied and would use a different manufacturing process anyway.
A good way to hide the recert costs from the move if you ask me... Instead of moving the current Centuar line, start up the new wide body line in a new location instead.Sounds unethical to me.
I wonder when we will be seeing the promised $150 million dollar savings that was promised at the begining?
Or has that been hidden as well?
It is going into launch table repair
But seriously, it was over a period of years, not instantaneously -
#910 by kevin-rf on 03 Apr, 2007 14:20
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Dexter - 3/4/2007 8:49 AM
Quotekevin-rf - 3/4/2007 7:30 AM
I thought they where talking about switching from Stainless to Al Li for Centuar wide body. So Wide body would have to be fully recertfied and would use a different manufacturing process anyway.
A good way to hide the recert costs from the move if you ask me... Instead of moving the current Centuar line, start up the new wide body line in a new location instead.Sounds unethical to me.
I wonder when we will be seeing the promised $150 million dollar savings that was promised at the begining?
Or has that been hidden as well?
Not really, it is just how you do your cost accounting. That is the problem with numbers, you can make them say what ever you want. What I proposed was not move stainless centuar but instead use the opportunity to develop wide body centuar instead.
From the spin standpoint you are doing two things.
1. Showing you are investing in the products future.
2. Not having to be crucified over the move costs by instead pumping the money into new product development.
Think of it this way (and yes both these things happened on the big dig in boston)
1. It is ethical to pay a contractor to haul dirt away from the site. It is also ethical to be charged by a contractor for dirt needed at the site, even if it is the same dirt.
2. It is unethical to have the same cement truck run through the front gate and be counted as a new load then go out the back gate and do it all over again with the same load.
It is this kind of stuff ( replace with four letter word) that drives real engineers crazy. Any company that is not operating at a loss in the tax mans eyes is miss managed. The sad part is many of the people that play with these numbers often loose the ability to tell the difference between smoke, mirrors, and a real blue sky.
And that is what the debate of this thread is all about. Is ULA looking at blue sky's or a set of mirrors. By the nature of what they do, anything but a blue sky view will endanger this nation. -
#911 by Gov't Seagull on 03 Apr, 2007 21:52
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bombay - 2/4/2007 9:05 PM
Being that the ULA will be subjected to intense engineering rigor, when Centaur moves to Decatur and if the appropriate people refuse to go along for the ride, the Air Force/Aerospace should demand that the Centaur be completely requalified.
Riiight...intense engineering rigor. The AF is still stuck in the corner they painted themselves into in the 90s. ULA will tell the AF that Centaur is moving to Decatur and the AF will not only accept the hardware but also run an ad in Aviation Week saying how much they like it.
"Buy 4" anyone? -
#912 by yinzer on 04 Apr, 2007 00:58
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Gov't Seagull - 3/4/2007 2:52 PM
Quotebombay - 2/4/2007 9:05 PM
Being that the ULA will be subjected to intense engineering rigor, when Centaur moves to Decatur and if the appropriate people refuse to go along for the ride, the Air Force/Aerospace should demand that the Centaur be completely requalified.
Riiight...intense engineering rigor. The AF is still stuck in the corner they painted themselves into in the 90s. ULA will tell the AF that Centaur is moving to Decatur and the AF will not only accept the hardware but also run an ad in Aviation Week saying how much they like it.
"Buy 4" anyone?
Going back and looking at EELV program office presentations where they talk about how much money they'll save by going to two launch vehicles so that they can capture the huge forecasted commercial demand is an interesting experience. Like a horror movie where you want to shout "Don't open the door!" even though you know they can't hear you.
On a similar note, go look at the fuel cost projections that were used to reject re-engining the B-52. -
#913 by porthos on 04 Apr, 2007 01:15
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Antares - 3/4/2007 12:45 AM
Quoteporthos - 2/4/2007 9:29 PM
What about the state of the art automated friction stir welding machines in Decatur? An Atlas-Centaur with FSW would seem to be a giant leap forward.
So if the weld engineers do not move to Decatur, Centaur manufacturing will struggle. I am not even sure of the other processes, but just ensuring the weld quality will be very difficult.
FSW is great for aluminum, but I think the Centaur is Stainless Steel. San Diego welding of the Centaur is completely different than any other welding anywhere. Very few people (I believe they work in San Diego) know how to maintain the quality required, which is higher than anywhere. -
#914 by bombay on 04 Apr, 2007 01:59
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porthos - 3/4/2007 8:15 PM
Some inroads have been made in friction stir welding thicker steel versus thinner stuff, but there's issues with the stylus that stirs the weld pool; it breaks down too fast.QuoteAntares - 3/4/2007 12:45 AM
Quoteporthos - 2/4/2007 9:29 PM
What about the state of the art automated friction stir welding machines in Decatur? An Atlas-Centaur with FSW would seem to be a giant leap forward.
So if the weld engineers do not move to Decatur, Centaur manufacturing will struggle. I am not even sure of the other processes, but just ensuring the weld quality will be very difficult.
FSW is great for aluminum, but I think the Centaur is Stainless Steel. San Diego welding of the Centaur is completely different than any other welding anywhere. Very few people (I believe they work in San Diego) know how to maintain the quality required, which is higher than anywhere.
Lets not forget that the only significant welding on Atlas and Delta boosters is welding large skins panels together then welding them to large spun formed domes where FSW makes sense.
Centaur's a different animal. Not only is the basic tank skins and domes welded together, but all brackets, bosses, outlets, reinforcement doublers, rings, and more are welded onto the tank. The amount of welding on a Centaur is quite large and difficult and the people that are involved with it are masters of the processes used.
The ULA management, Air Force, or any other group that simply thinks moving Centaur to Decatur will automatically qualify as a cost saving move is living in the dark. -
#915 by bombay on 04 Apr, 2007 02:08
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Gov't Seagull - 3/4/2007 4:52 PM
Come-come now! It was pointed out on this very thread how thanks to "engineering rigor" (a.k.a gov't bureacracy), all went well with Atlas after being sold to Martin. So considering that a bunch of people in Decatur who wouldn't know a spot weld from there dog spot will be building Centaur, requalification would seem appropriate.Quotebombay - 2/4/2007 9:05 PM
Being that the ULA will be subjected to intense engineering rigor, when Centaur moves to Decatur and if the appropriate people refuse to go along for the ride, the Air Force/Aerospace should demand that the Centaur be completely requalified.
Riiight...intense engineering rigor. The AF is still stuck in the corner they painted themselves into in the 90s. ULA will tell the AF that Centaur is moving to Decatur and the AF will not only accept the hardware but also run an ad in Aviation Week saying how much they like it.
"Buy 4" anyone? -
#916 by Jim on 04 Apr, 2007 02:18
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bombay - 3/4/2007 10:08 PM
It was pointed out on this very thread how thanks to "engineering rigor" (a.k.a gov't bureacracy), all went well with Atlas after being sold to Martin.
Neither Boeing, Lockheed, or Martin would be in the business if it weren't for the gov't, who held their hand until 1988. And since then they have done worst on their own. -
#917 by skywalker on 04 Apr, 2007 02:59
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bombay - 3/4/2007 8:59 PM
Quoteporthos - 3/4/2007 8:15 PM
Some inroads have been made in friction stir welding thicker steel versus thinner stuff, but there's issues with the stylus that stirs the weld pool; it breaks down too fast.QuoteAntares - 3/4/2007 12:45 AM
Quoteporthos - 2/4/2007 9:29 PM
What about the state of the art automated friction stir welding machines in Decatur? An Atlas-Centaur with FSW would seem to be a giant leap forward.
So if the weld engineers do not move to Decatur, Centaur manufacturing will struggle. I am not even sure of the other processes, but just ensuring the weld quality will be very difficult.
FSW is great for aluminum, but I think the Centaur is Stainless Steel. San Diego welding of the Centaur is completely different than any other welding anywhere. Very few people (I believe they work in San Diego) know how to maintain the quality required, which is higher than anywhere.
Lets not forget that the only significant welding on Atlas and Delta boosters is welding large skins panels together then welding them to large spun formed domes where FSW makes sense.
Centaur's a different animal. Not only is the basic tank skins and domes welded together, but all brackets, bosses, outlets, reinforcement doublers, rings, and more are welded onto the tank. The amount of welding on a Centaur is quite large and difficult and the people that are involved with it are masters of the processes used.
The ULA management, Air Force, or any other group that simply thinks moving Centaur to Decatur will automatically qualify as a cost saving move is living in the dark.Quotebombay - 3/4/2007 9:08 PM
QuoteGov't Seagull - 3/4/2007 4:52 PM
Come-come now! It was pointed out on this very thread how thanks to "engineering rigor" (a.k.a gov't bureacracy), all went well with Atlas after being sold to Martin. So considering that a bunch of people in Decatur who wouldn't know a spot weld from there dog spot will be building Centaur, requalification would seem appropriate.Quotebombay - 2/4/2007 9:05 PM
Being that the ULA will be subjected to intense engineering rigor, when Centaur moves to Decatur and if the appropriate people refuse to go along for the ride, the Air Force/Aerospace should demand that the Centaur be completely requalified.
Riiight...intense engineering rigor. The AF is still stuck in the corner they painted themselves into in the 90s. ULA will tell the AF that Centaur is moving to Decatur and the AF will not only accept the hardware but also run an ad in Aviation Week saying how much they like it.
"Buy 4" anyone?
Bombay mentions the most important thing "requalification". The only way Centaur will be FS welded is to completly redesign it and then REQUAL, that in it self would be cost prohibative. Then again isn't that what Wide Body Centaur is all about? -
#918 by bombay on 04 Apr, 2007 03:22
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Jim - 3/4/2007 9:18 PM
Holding their hands = Gov't sponsored cost-plus contracting until 1988. When companies continue to operate like the gov't (no regard for cost control) under fixed cost conditions, then you might expect those companies to do worse. Blame it on the horrible display of managerial decisions, not lack of engineering rigor.Quotebombay - 3/4/2007 10:08 PM
It was pointed out on this very thread how thanks to "engineering rigor" (a.k.a gov't bureacracy), all went well with Atlas after being sold to Martin.
Neither Boeing, Lockheed, or Martin would be in the business if it weren't for the gov't, who held their hand until 1988. And since then they have done worst on their own. -
#919 by WHAP on 04 Apr, 2007 03:35
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Jim - 3/4/2007 8:18 PM
Quotebombay - 3/4/2007 10:08 PM
It was pointed out on this very thread how thanks to "engineering rigor" (a.k.a gov't bureacracy), all went well with Atlas after being sold to Martin.
Neither Boeing, Lockheed, or Martin would be in the business if it weren't for the gov't, who held their hand until 1988. And since then they have done worst on their own.
The Atlas program was actually profitable for a few years after moving to Denver (1994, well after the "hand holding" ended). I'm sure the bargain basement price for GD Space Systems didn't hurt. But the Atlas program was not run like a cost-plus program back then.
