We summarize our statistical exploration of the experimental data. We have examined the experimental and predicted Power Input, Q, Frequency and Geometrical Information, for the EMDrive experiments conducted in the US, UK and China, and reported in my my last post with data (please refer to:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29276.msg1270264#msg1270264 ).
The horizontal axis shows the experimentally measured quantity.
The vertical axis shows the prediction from McCulloch's formula (inverted to express the predicted variable as a function of the other variables: the measured force, and the remaining variables). For example, when presenting the difference between the inverted diameters of the bases of the truncated cone, the expression is as follows:
Predicted(1/DiameterOfSmallBase-1/DiameterOfBigBase) = (ExperimentalForce)*Frequency/(Q*PowerInput)
McCulloch's simple formula, without any fudge factors, and with a minimum of parameters, does a much better job at predicting the experimental results than anything else presented so far:
Force = ( PowerInput * Q / frequency ) * (1/DiameterSmallBase - 1/DiameterBigBase)
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EMDrive EXPERIMENTAL DATA
1) The results of this statistical data exploration should be (perhaps) very surprising to those, like me, that started their analysis of the EM Drives experimental data thinking that they must be an experimental artifact.
2) There is a significant experimental dependence on the following variables, presented here in the following descending order of coefficient of determination (R^2) :
(1/DiameterOfSmallBase-1/DiameterOfBigBase) with R^2 = 90%
Q (resonance quality factor) with R^2 = 81%
Power input with R^2 = 81%The variable with the highest coefficient of determination (R^2) is the difference of inverse diameters for the bases of the truncated cone, followed by Q and the power input.
NASA Eagleworks tested drives had the least amount of (1/DiameterOfSmallBase-1/DiameterOfBigBase). The Cannae device is practically symmetric and the truncated cone tested by NASA Eagleworks has a significantly smaller difference between the inverse of the base diameters (1/DiameterOfSmallBase-1/DiameterOfBigBase) than Shawyer's and China's drives. This unnecessarily limited the thrust output of the NASA Eagleworks measurements. NASA Eagleworks should learn from Shawyer and China regarding the importance of this geometrical parameter
3)
Including all the data (including an obvious outlier)
shows practically no statistical dependence on frequency. The coefficient of determination (R^2) for frequency a very poor R^2 = - 12%. There is a clear statistical outlier (Brady et.al. at 1.937 GHz) that I have repeatedly pointed out. The fact that this is a statistical outlier is evident from the plot. Essentially, including the statistical outlier indicates that the uncertainty overwhelms the power to conclude anything concerning frequency dependence. The uncertainty experimental bars are very large and they overwhelm the very small frequency range that was explored. The experiments in the US, UK and China did not peform a satisfactory exploration of frequencies. Basically only two frequency ranges have been explored: ~1.9 GHz in the US and ~2.5 GHz in the UK and China. Considering the data without the outlier gives a still weak statistical dependence: R^2 = 22%. Essentially inversely proportional to the frequency, as predicted by McCulloch, but again there is not enough statistical data to make any statistical conclusion regarding frequency dependence.
A very important issue is the fact that resonance amplitude is a very nonlinear function of frequency. Besides this being expected, such resonance amplitude nonlinear dependence on frequency is shown in the S22 plots. Hence it is not surprising that a formula that is inversely proportional to frequency cannot possibly reflect the huge changes in amplitude resonance emanating from small changes in frequency (for example for Brady et.al. at 1.88, 1.933 and 1.937 GHz), particularly when experimenters deliberately chose to conduct their experiments at frequencies close to resonance.4) So far, all the experimental data variation in the US (NASA Eagleworks, including the statistical outlier), the UK and China can be explained solely in terms of just three variables:
A) (1/DiameterOfSmallBase-1/DiameterOfBigBase)
B) Q (resonance quality factor)
C) Power Input 5) The uncertainty in the data is due to the very nonlinear relationship between resonance amplitude and frequency, as the researchers seek to test in conditions of highest resonance amplitude with highest Q, with concomitant very narrow power frequency bandwith, which introduces experimental uncertainty particularly when using a voltage-controlled oscillator (VCO). To quote Ludwick:
"If Brady was using a free running VCO, ’tuned’ to the resonant frequency of the thruster, there is next to zero chance that the VCO, and by extension the drive power to the thruster, stayed within the bandwidth of the thruster during the test run OR that, for the high Q thruster, a large percentage of the source power was within the thruster bandwidth, even if the center frequency of the source remained centered on the resonant frequency of the thruster. VCO’s are VERY spectrally dirty and, unless phase locked, very unstable in relation to the spectral purity required by Brady’s thruster."