Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION  (Read 688212 times)

Offline jcm

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #840 on: 10/09/2012 04:51 am »
Quote
Many people aren't going to like me for this, but given the now-confirmed improper Orbcomm orbit result, my methodology requires me to categorize this as a launch vehicle failure. 

Those familiar with my system know that I list launches as successes if proper orbits are achieved, and failures if not, without compromise.  I show three Space Shuttle failures and one Atlas 5 failure, for example.  I list SA-502/Apollo 6 as a failure. 

I think it's fairly obvious to the casual observer that this launch succeeded at its primary objective (deploy Dragon such that it can berth with the ISS) and failed at it's secondary objective (deploy OrbComm in it's proper orbit).

I understand the desire for a black and white pass/fail criteria, but saying this launch is a complete failure seems a bit much.  Did you mark down Falcon 9 Flight 1 as a failure since it failed to achieve a restart burn?

This is of course the problem with black and white pass/fail.
Does it mean "fully successful / something failed" or "partly successful/total fail"?  A similar case is the first Delta 4 Heavy where the nanosats did not achieve orbit and the primary payload achieved a suboptimal orbit - I counted that one as a failure but this Falcon as a success. I hesitated though, and can understand Ed's choice.

I'm considering changing all my databases from pass/fail to a numeric score. Pass/fail does have the advantage that you can use Poisson statistics to get a confidence interval on the failure rate; but for most purposes it is rather a blunt instrument.

I'm tired and not coming up with another good example of 'primary payload perfect, secondary payload failed/wrong orbit' off the top of my head - I guess the Tsiklon-3 with Sich-1 and Fasat-Alfa where the secondary payload failed to separate is one example, any others?
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Offline jcm

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #841 on: 10/09/2012 04:58 am »
Quote
Many people aren't going to like me for this, but given the now-confirmed improper Orbcomm orbit result, my methodology requires me to categorize this as a launch vehicle failure. 

Those familiar with my system know that I list launches as successes if proper orbits are achieved, and failures if not, without compromise.  I show three Space Shuttle failures and one Atlas 5 failure, for example.  I list SA-502/Apollo 6 as a failure. 

I think it's fairly obvious to the casual observer that this launch succeeded at its primary objective (deploy Dragon such that it can berth with the ISS) and failed at it's secondary objective (deploy OrbComm in it's proper orbit).

I understand the desire for a black and white pass/fail criteria, but saying this launch is a complete failure seems a bit much.  Did you mark down Falcon 9 Flight 1 as a failure since it failed to achieve a restart burn?

I don't know how you can come to that conclusion as well. It was not the second stages fault that the command was not given to raise Orbcomm's satellite to it's proper orbit. NASA's parameters did not allow for it. I would classify the mission as a partial success and that is only if and when Dragon fulfills it's intended flight plan.

You're conflating the Dragon mission and the Falcon launch. We traditionally separate reliability studies of rocket and payload because they are largely independent. Whether the Dragon mission succeeds or not, Falcon delivered it to substantially the correct orbit.
  And you are partly incorrect about the 'command' - there was no external command, it was a second stage program and the reason it didn't pass NASA's parameters was because of the first stage issues. So it was the Falcon's fault (the first stage, not the second stage, though,  you're right to that extent).

The problem here is that there's 'secondary' and 'secondary'. The Falcon 1 restart test was a launch vehicle provider's 'nice to have'. The Falcon 9 Orbcomm deploy was a customer's 'must have'. I would classify both of those missions as partial success, the Falcon 1 at 90/95 percent and this one at 85 percent.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #842 on: 10/09/2012 05:05 am »
I'd call it "head end" or "top end" not back end.  It's part of the combustion chamber/throat/nozzle assembly which is called a TCA ("thrust chamber assembly") in most publications.

The pressure inside the TCA, exhausted via the throat and through the nozzle, is what creates thrust.  Any opening or venting outside of the nozzle will lower combustion pressure, and that will be sensed as fault by the engine controller.  Presumably if that happened, the engine would command itself to shut down.

I don't have any details about the engine but the walls are likely fairly thin, perhaps only a few millimeters thick.  There are many failure modes, from burn-though, stress cracking, etc., that generally require analysis of the post-failure hardware to determine.  That may not be possible in this case.

But since there is only one (?) flight of Merlin 1C left, and then SpaceX transitions to the very different Merlin 1D, the failure has come at about the worst time in that version's manufacturing cycle.  SpaceX has a few hard decisions to make going forward (in my view).  While unlikely, they might wish to transition earlier to the F9v1.1 than they had planned...but that creates it own set of problems.  Tough call and I wish them the best.

Directionality is always a bitch...   Yeah, I used "back" since I was looking at the gas flow....

The interesting part is that they've had many many hours on the stand.  So if the failure originated in the engine, there's a good chance it has to do with the operating environment.  Something like less convective or radiative heat transfer, etc.  (Does the test chamber replicated the emissivity of the surrounding space?  Do they insulate the surfaces?)

Lacking a post-mortem, and if they can't replicate the problem (assuming they even have enough 1Cs left to play with) my vote would be to fly again.

Based on the sample set we have, there's a 1:4 chance that they'll have an engine out, but if it happens, the rocket can recover.  It is now only a numbers game, since they will not be putting anything at risk other than the up-going payload.  And if the rocket wasn't fully fueled, then it should be next time.  And no secondaries.  :)
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Offline sdsds

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #843 on: 10/09/2012 05:14 am »
For modemeagle: in your simulations if F9v1 loses thrust from two engines at T+1:20 does the payload reach any orbit at all?
Yes, according to my simulation.

Thanks very much for this! The G-force chart (hope you don't mind I attached a screen shot) really makes this seem plausible; the set-back caused by the engines out shifts the curve "right" in time, but it otherwise follows nicely what would have happened.

Robotbeat: I accept your assertion that the press release phrasing wasn't inaccurate, and is helpful in explaining how well Falcon 9 could perform in its "Falcon 7" configuration!
« Last Edit: 10/09/2012 05:14 am by sdsds »
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #844 on: 10/09/2012 05:44 am »
In terms the general public can understand:

On SpaceX launch CRS-1 engine #1, part of the first stage of Falcon 9 launch vehicle, burst near its top.  This engine anomaly is not actually an explosion but does make a bang.  SpaceX turned off the fuel lines to the engine #1, dumped the broken engine and continued the flight.  The main payload - the Dragon capsule - successfully made it to orbit but there was insufficient time to boost the secondary payload - the OrbComm satellite - to its correct (higher) orbit.

This is a video of a tank bursting.



edit : spelling
« Last Edit: 10/09/2012 05:47 am by A_M_Swallow »

Offline Hooperball

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #845 on: 10/09/2012 05:51 am »
Obviously there are different mechanical characteristics between a cylindrical chamber and a fuel dome with penetrations but this may shed some light on the forces involved with a possible fuel dome failure as well as some of the design features that saved the day.


From the Merlin 1C thread this quote was given by Spacex in 2005.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=10356.135

1.) From http://spacex.com/updates_archive.php?page=0605-1205
"Then there is the question of dealing with the comparatively rare case of a chamber rupture. To protect against this, Falcon 9 will have a blast shield protecting the entire base of the vehicle just above the gimbal joints of the engines. In addition, there will be fireproofed Kevlar fragment containment around each engine, similar to those present in jet engine nacelles. The explosive power of a liquid rocket chamber is actually not exceptionally high – it can be thought of as simply a small pressure vessel containing (in our case) 800 psi hot gas. During the development of Merlin, we saw several of what we refer to as RUD (rapid unscheduled disassembly) events and no fragments have ever penetrated more than 2mm of aluminum. Also, the direction of fragments is in a shallow downward cone away from the vehicle.

As additional measures of protection, all propellant and pneumatic lines have either pre-valves or check valves nested up high in the thrust structure. If anything happens to the engine, the flight computer is able to cut off all propellant and pressurant flow immediately."

« Last Edit: 10/09/2012 06:29 am by Hooperball »

Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #846 on: 10/09/2012 06:35 am »
It was not the second stages fault that the command was not given to raise Orbcomm's satellite to it's proper orbit. NASA's parameters did not allow for it. I would classify the mission as a partial success and that is only if and when Dragon fulfills it's intended flight plan.

What evidence do you have that those were NASA's parameters?  And even if they were, there's the whole protecting the $100B asset thing, one that Congressmen like to trot out if NASA doesn't do so.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #847 on: 10/09/2012 06:42 am »
In car racing terms, this sounds more like a cracked cylinder head vs. a blown engine where the block fractures and the bolts let go.
DM

Offline alexterrell

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #848 on: 10/09/2012 07:20 am »


The pressure inside the TCA, exhausted via the throat and through the nozzle, is what creates thrust.  Any opening or venting outside of the nozzle will lower combustion pressure, and that will be sensed as fault by the engine controller.  Presumably if that happened, the engine would command itself to shut down.

If this were the upper stage, or the third engine to fail, would the controller still shut down the engine, knowing that would lead to loss of mission, or would it continue in the hope of carrying on, or that the sensors had failed?

I suppose with a manned Dragon capsule it would shut down to provide for a controlled seperation and re-entry. With an unmanned cargo it might carry on.

Also, it seems the sudden pressure loss caused the fuel dome to implode - I assume its not designed for compression. Would it not be possible to regulate the shut-down to provide balanced pressure? Or would that be akin to throttling the engine down to just above 0% thrust, which doesn't seem possible. 

Offline guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #849 on: 10/09/2012 07:23 am »

So do I understand correctly that it is the back-end of the combustion chamber, and so a rupture there would cause the outflow to be mixed and basically already ignited.

Actually the fuel is not ignited at this point. What would escape due to a rupture is the unignited fuel/oxidizer mix.

I attach a photo I took a few days ago at the ILA in Berlin Germany. It is a completely different engine, the Hydrolox upper stage engine of the Ariane 5 but it is an actual engine cut open for display. The basics are the same. I marked the part that is the fuel dome and it is above the injectors that get the fuel mix into the combustion chamber below.


Offline simonbp

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #850 on: 10/09/2012 07:33 am »
So, could this be a turbopump running too fast and causing the fuel dome to overpressure and rupture? Or, an overpressure caused by a blockage down the line? It's a pintle engine, so only one injector to block.

Offline ugordan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #851 on: 10/09/2012 07:45 am »
So, could this be a turbopump running too fast and causing the fuel dome to overpressure and rupture? Or, an overpressure caused by a blockage down the line? It's a pintle engine, so only one injector to block.

The 1st scenario is unlikely, IMHO. It would take a certain amount of time for the turbopump to overspeed, during which the shutdown limit would probably have been reached before structural limits of the chamber were reached.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #852 on: 10/09/2012 07:50 am »
For those interested in the engine one depress and shutdown, there is a slow motion video clip someone made showing the event in relatively good detail. Not sure if this was already posted so here it is (at around 25 seconds in):





Pretty violent regardless of whether the engine destroyed itself or merely rapidly depressurized.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #853 on: 10/09/2012 07:57 am »
IMO, pause the video at exactly 30 seconds and take a look at what you see full screen. It appears to me the failure of the fuel dome resulted in a small explosion as opposed to just depressurization. It looks, however, like the engine shutdown command went through such that by the time the rupture/explosion was occurring, the engine was already terminating its fuel/oxidizer supply and shutting down, which may be why it was as small as it was. So really it was ultra rapid depressurization or essentially a very small brief explosion that was contained.


This is still a significant failure, but it is really surprising to me that the vehicle not only survived this, but continued on a nominal trajectory (barring of course the inability to deploy the orbcomm sat properly). Very lucky.


It also occurs to me, it worth asking: if this had occurred on a manned flight would it have triggered activation of the LAS on dragon or would the flight have continued on the other 8 (considering the apparent violence of the failure, brief though it was)?
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Offline simonbp

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #854 on: 10/09/2012 08:02 am »
It also occurs to me, it worth asking: if this had occurred on a manned flight would it have triggered activation of the LAS on dragon or would the flight have continued on the other 8 (considering the apparent violence of the failure, brief though it was)?

Excellent question.

My guess is no, not unless the GNC computed that they could not reach the desired orbit. An abort is almost as dangerous as staying on a deranged-but-intact rocket, so you don't want to trigger it if you don't have to.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2012 08:02 am by simonbp »

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #855 on: 10/09/2012 08:03 am »
It also occurs to me, it worth asking: if this had occurred on a manned flight would it have triggered activation of the LAS on dragon or would the flight have continued on the other 8 (considering the apparent violence of the failure, brief though it was)?

Excellent question.

My guess is no, not unless the GNC computed that they could not reach the desired orbit. An abort is almost as dangerous as staying on a deranged-but-intact rocket, so you don't want to trigger it if you don't have to.

True. Although I still think its somewhat open ended given how violent that was. But I think your probably correct.

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Offline pippin

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #856 on: 10/09/2012 08:31 am »
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/space/rockets/why-the-engine-failure-could-be-good-news-for-spacex-13520351?src=rss

Who is this Rand Simberg, and why is he claiming absolute knowledge of what failed, in apparent contradiction to Chris' article stating that SpaceX says the fuel dome ruptured ? 

Rand is a highly experienced "recovering" aerospace engineer who published a blog called Transterrestrial Musings (www.transterrestrial.com).  He is a thirty-plus year veteran of the industry.  Nothing he said in that article seem to me to contradict what Chris wrote.

That doesn't change the fact that he's writing a lot of wrong things in that article, especially around the term "pressure". Almost every sentence there having the word "pressure" in it is simply wrong from a physics/engineering standpoint.

I'm talking stuff like "When this happened, the pressure of the gases exiting the rocket nozzle went to zero." a sentence that only can make you shudder. The whole explanation around what happened then and why is also just plain wrong.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2012 08:34 am by pippin »

Offline Hooperball

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #857 on: 10/09/2012 08:33 am »
Sorry Guckyfan I believe Merlin uses a pintle injector:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pintle_injector

S

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #858 on: 10/09/2012 08:51 am »
Found the full spacex webcast coverage and reviewed that. On the right pane, the camera on stage 2 looking aft, near meco you can clearly see the damage in and around engine 1 at the back of the stage, its quite interesting. Will be posting exact video times and the video itself tomorrow, but the imagery seems to back up a fuel dome failure as opposed to a total bell/chamber failure. Still quite brutal to subject a vehicle to that and have it keep flying but no where near as bad as a total failure would have been.

So this implies the system works.
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Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #859 on: 10/09/2012 08:55 am »
I wonder why we don't have 34 pages of rampant speculation on that other launch vehicle failure we had in the past week? (Delta IVM - GPSII-F3)

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