Narrowing the CCDev candidate list

[Robotbeat]

So I think that there’s a healthy market out there for ATK to exploit.
 

Not true, because they will be at a disadvantage compared to ULA and SpaceX.

A. they can't do GTO with the current vehicle
b.  They don't have a VAFB capability
c.  They have a kludge for a vehicle.
d.  They can't really improve that much.
e.   They will have legacy cost issues.

All those point to the possibility that instead they'll just develop the Athena III (maybe with more segments than the 2.5 originally proposed) and call it Liberty.

They've already been in talks with Alaska about increasing the infrastructure at the old Athena launch site to accommodate the larger Athena III-sized launch vehicle.

I still think the 2014 will be an all-solid LV.

[rmencos]

you should email their "investor relations" dept with your concerns and see what they say to you.


heh, heh, they can't contradict themselves.  Some nice lady would say "I kindly direct you to our prospectus."  In any case, I don't have a concern.  I was just trying to answer Jim's question.  ATK probably is investing money into its program and I believe them when they say they are.  They have a healthy R&D and it seems that's where the money comes from (with good tax breaks).  All I'm saying is that Liberty is not a risk factor for ATK - it's not a huge investment - whereas if they were developing this program by themselves in any significant way it would probably be a huge investment and they would certainly tell their investors about it (i.e. this isn't a Boeing 787 project).

[rmencos]

1.    Commercial companies, like Iridium, Globalstar, DirectTV and Sirius (and many others) are also starting to realize profits and becoming mainstream and crucial to the world market.  There is no reason to believe that these markets will stop growing.

2.   In fact, as technology gets better, they will want to replace their systems at a faster pace.

3.   Then we have the outliers, such as Bigelow, Space Resources and Excalibur Almaz.  The success of those companies is speculative, but one thing is for sure – they’ll send something up before they call it quits. 

1.  not really, same unfounded speculation as the 90's.  DirectTV and Sirius do not need to expand their onorbit assets.  It doesn't change whether they have one or a hundred million customers.  They get more money from selling more receivers, not more satellites.

2. wrong, spacecraft are lasting more than a decade.


3.  No, it is more for sure that they will never fly anything before calling it quits.

Here's a link to a recent article on the subject.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_07_09_2012_p32-473122-01.xml&p=1

"With Delta/Atlas manufacturer United Launch Alliance “essentially out of the market for commercial launches,” "

brings up a point......what stops ULA from the commercial market?

They're tethered to the US government.  SpaceX is just waiting in the wings.  As soon as their rockets become manrated, they will compete for all human spaceflight business, and they'll probably get it all.  Which brings up another point . . . does NASA really care about this in their decision making for CCiCAP?

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

1.    Commercial companies, like Iridium, Globalstar, DirectTV and Sirius (and many others) are also starting to realize profits and becoming mainstream and crucial to the world market.  There is no reason to believe that these markets will stop growing.

2.   In fact, as technology gets better, they will want to replace their systems at a faster pace.

3.   Then we have the outliers, such as Bigelow, Space Resources and Excalibur Almaz.  The success of those companies is speculative, but one thing is for sure – they’ll send something up before they call it quits. 

1.  not really, same unfounded speculation as the 90's.  DirectTV and Sirius do not need to expand their onorbit assets.  It doesn't change whether they have one or a hundred million customers.  They get more money from selling more receivers, not more satellites.

2. wrong, spacecraft are lasting more than a decade.


3.  No, it is more for sure that they will never fly anything before calling it quits.

Here's a link to a recent article on the subject.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_07_09_2012_p32-473122-01.xml&p=1

"With Delta/Atlas manufacturer United Launch Alliance “essentially out of the market for commercial launches,” "

brings up a point......what stops ULA from the commercial market?

They're tethered to the US government.  SpaceX is just waiting in the wings.  As soon as their rockets become manrated, they will compete for all human spaceflight business, and they'll probably get it all.  Which brings up another point . . . does NASA really care about this in their decision making for CCiCAP?

Actually the only thing keeping ULA from launching commercial comm sats is price. The number one thing that a commercial comm sat operator looks at is the LV price (including all associated integration costs). ULA has priced themselves out of the market.

[yg1968]

The exchange between rmencos and Jim is very interesting and is the kind of stuff that NASA should be looking at instead of worrying if companies launch or not from KSC.

In other words, in a perfect world, NASA should be worried about the operating costs of commercial crew and the fact that a provider:
1- provides more jobs to KSC
2- has commonality with SLS/MPCV and
3- is good for them politically
would not be relevant in their decision process.

[Jim]

  As soon as their rockets become manrated, they will compete for all human spaceflight business, and they'll probably get it all.

Unsubstantiated statement.

[rmencos]

  As soon as their rockets become manrated, they will compete for all human spaceflight business, and they'll probably get it all.

Unsubstantiated statement.

I admittedly don't have secret memo on SpaceX's plans.  And I know that I'm casually throwing "manrated" around like it's an easy term.  But is it so hard to see the SpaceX train coming?  If ULA thinks SpaceX isn't going to gun for their business it's like the sheep who said "Nah, the wolf's not coming today, it's Sunday!"  SpaceX is coming.  The tough, technical part is being taken care of and Elon Musk can now credibly do what he does best - beat the living hell out of his competition.  He has an army of venture capitalists backing him up and they want their PayPal moment. 

[Jim]

But is it so hard to see the SpaceX train coming?  If ULA thinks SpaceX isn't going to gun for their business it's like the sheep who said "Nah, the wolf's not coming today, it's Sunday!"  SpaceX is coming.  The tough, technical part is being taken care of and Elon Musk can now credibly do what he does best - beat the living hell out of his competition.  He has an army of venture capitalists backing him up and they want their PayPal moment. 

Only the gushing fan boys think that.   It is quite the opposite.  There is no train.  The tough and expensive part is still ahead.  Routine and successful launches done over and over again.  Spacex costs are going to climb.

[JohnFornaro]

I admittedly don't have secret memo on SpaceX's plans.  And I know that I'm casually throwing "manrated" around like it's an easy term.  But is it so hard to see the SpaceX train coming?

Nobody sends me any memos either.  Even so, their train is still a good distance away, and there are many unforseen events which could derail their train and delay their performance.  The man-rating issue is certainly one of these.

[Prober]

  As soon as their rockets become manrated, they will compete for all human spaceflight business, and they'll probably get it all.

Unsubstantiated statement.

I admittedly don't have secret memo on SpaceX's plans.  And I know that I'm casually throwing "manrated" around like it's an easy term.  But is it so hard to see the SpaceX train coming?  If ULA thinks SpaceX isn't going to gun for their business it's like the sheep who said "Nah, the wolf's not coming today, it's Sunday!"  SpaceX is coming.  The tough, technical part is being taken care of and Elon Musk can now credibly do what he does best - beat the living hell out of his competition.  He has an army of venture capitalists backing him up and they want their PayPal moment. 

Launching rockets isn't like PayPal.

[rmencos]

But is it so hard to see the SpaceX train coming?  If ULA thinks SpaceX isn't going to gun for their business it's like the sheep who said "Nah, the wolf's not coming today, it's Sunday!"  SpaceX is coming.  The tough, technical part is being taken care of and Elon Musk can now credibly do what he does best - beat the living hell out of his competition.  He has an army of venture capitalists backing him up and they want their PayPal moment. 

Only the gushing fan boys think that.   It is quite the opposite.  There is no train.  The tough and expensive part is still ahead.  Routine and successful launches done over and over again.  Spacex costs are going to climb.

There's no doubt there is a tough road ahead.  But try this exercise: take a look at the SpaceX launch manifest and count the number of launches; then blink and make believe that all of those launches have occurred.  Now take a look at the dates.  That's in five years.  And we're not counting possible CCiCAP launches.  It's not a speed train, but it's purposeful.  What has ULA done?  SpaceX has been around for ten years now and you have a major satellite services provider calling ULA uncompetitive - a non-player.  They're betting on SpaceX to fail, and that may happen.  But if SpaceX succeeds, do you really think that it will be happy to share its business with ULA?  I'm not a SpaceX fan boy.  It's just too easy to pick the winner in this case - it's not even a contest.

[rmencos]

  As soon as their rockets become manrated, they will compete for all human spaceflight business, and they'll probably get it all.

Unsubstantiated statement.

I admittedly don't have secret memo on SpaceX's plans.  And I know that I'm casually throwing "manrated" around like it's an easy term.  But is it so hard to see the SpaceX train coming?  If ULA thinks SpaceX isn't going to gun for their business it's like the sheep who said "Nah, the wolf's not coming today, it's Sunday!"  SpaceX is coming.  The tough, technical part is being taken care of and Elon Musk can now credibly do what he does best - beat the living hell out of his competition.  He has an army of venture capitalists backing him up and they want their PayPal moment. 

Launching rockets isn't like PayPal.

I meant the PayPal moment when investors became multi-millionaires (usually at the IPO).  The venture capitalists must have already done their due diligence and understand the risks and hardships.  The rewards must be worth it for them.

[rmencos]

I meant the PayPal moment when investors became multi-millionaires (usually at the IPO).  The venture capitalists must have already done their due diligence and understand the risks and hardships.  The rewards must be worth it for them.

What venture capitalists? What are you talking about?

SpaceX investors currently consist of Elon Musk and his friends.

No venture capitalists.

It didn't take long to Google this.  Here's one venture capitalist that's mentioned only yesterday.  Treating SpaceX as a "Musk & Friends" venture may be accurate only in that some people who risk a lot together can grow closer and become friends.  It doesn't take away from the fact that they're venture capitalists.  These guys aren't just going to give away their money.

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2012/07/11/apollo-astronauts-give-thanks-to-spacex/

[Downix]

brings up a point......what stops ULA from the commercial market?

They cannot sell their own services. To fly on ULA, you need to work with either Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services, Inc or Boeing Launch Services Inc., not with ULA itself.

[wolfpack]

Launching rockets isn't like PayPal.

No, it isn't.

Elon has made his money in the Silicon Valley way. Create something that hasn't been created before. Online payments, for example. Be first in tech and you win.

The space business isn't new. He's not first. Not second. Not third. Not even in the top ten by a long shot. What he's doing is challenging the status quo in aerospace. Which is government contract, cost-plus FAR, "nobody work more than a 40-hour week" status quo. If he succeeds, it's a game changer. If he fails, it's more of the same. The fact that he's there is what inspires me. I wish him luck.

As it has been said before, "may you live in interesting times."

I think we are.

[Orbital Debris]

Launching rockets isn't like PayPal.

No, it isn't.

Elon has made his money in the Silicon Valley way. Create something that hasn't been created before. Online payments, for example. Be first in tech and you win.

The space business isn't new. He's not first. Not second. Not third. Not even in the top ten by a long shot. What he's doing is challenging the status quo in aerospace. Which is government contract, cost-plus FAR, "nobody work more than a 40-hour week" status quo. If he succeeds, it's a game changer. If he fails, it's more of the same. The fact that he's there is what inspires me. I wish him luck.

As it has been said before, "may you live in interesting times."

I think we are.

Huh?  WTH?  Not in my experience.

[Jim]

1.  then blink and make believe that all of those launches have occurred.  Now take a look at the dates.

2.   That's in five years,  I'm not a SpaceX fan boy.  It's just too easy to pick the winner in this case - it's not even a contest.

1.  That is just like watching a bad scifi movie.  It take willful suspension of disbelief, because it is not going to happen that way.  They aren't going to meet their manifest schedule and will lose customers.

2.  you have to be to make such a comment.  Unbiased people would not make such a statement.

[Jim]

"nobody work more than a 40-hour week" status quo.

That is one of the problems, they are burning their people out. 

[Chris Bergin]

Ok this threads going a bit strange to say the least, and I can't find a natural trim point, so everyone the thread title in mind and keep it interesting, civil, etc.

Posts that aren't, after this note, will be filed in my drawer titled "delete"

[wolfpack]

Huh?  WTH?  Not in my experience.

Then I yield to your experience, sir. I only have anecdotal testimony from coworkers who have toiled in aerospace at times.