Excalibur Almaz announces lunar plans

[QuantumG]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5af9e2a-ba21-11e1-aa8d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1yI0yHZm5

[Downix]

Well, I don't know, but they delivered everything requested for their CCDev2 unfunded SAA, with the last item delivered last week.

This is probably true. I have attached all of the milestones here as a public service.

It looks as if the deliverables are mostly stuff that EA would require to fly their capsule and have had on hand for some time; reports on hardware are probably the original NPO Mash documents from 30 years ago, such as pressure testing results.

There is some work described in the requirements, but nothing too difficult for a small company that has access to archives from NPO Mash. The launch vehicle reports and finite element model would have been on hand for quite some time.

There is certainly no work performed that implies any significant modernization efforts of the existing subsystems.

I would look forward to anyone taking a look at these deliverables and telling me where I am wrong.

How much work was it to launch the modified Vostok as part of the Resurs program in the 1990's?

[daveklingler]

If I had the equipment Almaz has I'd quietly and promptly visit Bigelow's memoranda of understanding partners and see what deals can be made.

They wouldn't know who Bigelow's partners are.

That is an unfounded statement.

There are a few people who might be reasonably expected to know every detail of Bigelow's operations, and Art Dula is one of them.  In fact, there are a few people who might reasonably be expected to be currently engaged as counsel for Bigelow, and Art Dula is one of them.

[Danderman]

How much work was it to launch the modified Vostok as part of the Resurs program in the 1990's?

The Vostok modifications for Resurs were an order of magnitude less than required modifications for Resurs.

To begin with, the industrial base for Vostok was never shut down for a month, let alone 25 years. In the case of the Almaz VA, the companies that made the solid rocket motors may not exist anymore, and those solid rocket motors are no longer in production.

The flight computer for Almaz VA was apparently some model of Bizer that is no longer in production, and changing out flight computers is non-trivial.

Almaz VA must be modified to maneuver in orbit, as well as dock, which Vostok derivatives were never required to do.

Somewhere out there, there exists a report listing all the required modifications to Almaz VA. I have read it, and it is not a pleasant read.

[daveklingler]

He who bets against Art Dula is uninformed.  Like a previous poster said, Dula is one of the few people in the world who could pull off EA. 

If it doesn't succeed, it's not because EA hasn't covered every single technical detail.  These are serious people.

[Danderman]

He says they are doing this work and you say they are not. Their press release is official and your skepticism is uncivil.

You have to take what they say as given, unless you can prove otherwise. Can you prove otherwise? Until you do, retract your comments and apologize.

The modifications required for Almaz VA to serve as an effective crew vehicle for ISS are extensive, and would cost in the high tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars. I do not believe that Excalibur has close to that amount of cash on hand to perform the necessary modifications. I have no evidence that any Russian firm other than NPO Mash is working on the project, although NPO Mash is a systems integrator.

I do not deny that Excalibur Almaz can perform some design work in Houston sufficient to meet the NASA deliverables, and that such design work would be consistent with Mr. Dula's statements.

Having said that, it is true that developments in the Soyuz and Kobalt-M spacecraft do lend themselves for Almaz-VA modernization, such as the latest iteration of the Neptune control panel. I just don't see any evidence that those modifications are being adapted for Almaz-VA.

[QuantumG]

I have no evidence that any Russian firm other than NPO Mash is working on the project, although NPO Mash is a systems integrator.
[..]
I just don't see any evidence that those modifications are being adapted for Almaz-VA.

What's wrong with you?  They don't owe you any evidence.  The burden is on you to identify any statements they have made that you can prove are false and present your evidence to us.

I'm waiting for that apology.

[Lars_J]

Geez, calm down, QuantumG.

Welcome to the internet. People do disagree. People don't take PR statements as facts. Some skepticism is warranted.

Are you personally involved with EA?

[QuantumG]

Geez, calm down, QuantumG.

Welcome to the internet. People do disagree. People don't take PR statements as facts. Some skepticism is warranted.

Are you personally involved with EA?

No. He's calling them liars.. and they're not around to defend themselves. It's offensive.

[Danderman]

I don't see anything that Excalibur Almaz has announced that is not true. The issue is the level of work that is being performed. My impression is that there some design work being done in an office in Houston, as opposed to manufacture of newly designed subassemblies or critical design review of the entire system.

At the current level of work being done, flight of a capsule is many years away, as far as I can tell.

If there were a major infusion of investor cash, things would change.

Of all the Commercial Crew providers, I can't think of one except for Excalibur Almaz that doesn't have some sort of integration facility, but I am unaware of EA having such a facility. Of course, the Reutov plant could be considered their facility, but I don't think it is.

[QuantumG]

I don't see anything that Excalibur Almaz has announced that is not true. The issue is the level of work that is being performed.

Is this your attempt at an apology? You said you didn't believe their announcement.. you said you hadn't seen any evidence that what they were saying was true. Now you're backpedaling. Did I get through to you?

You pulled the exact same routine on the SpaceX threads..

[Jason1701]

I don't see anything that Excalibur Almaz has announced that is not true. The issue is the level of work that is being performed.

Is this your attempt at an apology? You said you didn't believe their announcement.. you said you hadn't seen any evidence that what they were saying was true. Now you're backpedaling. Did I get through to you?

You pulled the exact same routine on the SpaceX threads..

I don't see how Quantum can be so sure that they're steadily progressing toward a near-term capability. In lieu of proof (not just vague announcements) of their concrete plans and funding, I think it's logical to be somewhat skeptical that EA can deliver - like NASA probably is, which is why their SAA is unfunded. Anyone can make announcements (see Interorbital).

[QuantumG]

I don't see how Quantum can be so sure that they're steadily progressing toward a near-term capability. In lieu of proof (not just vague announcements) of their concrete plans and funding, I think it's logical to be somewhat skeptical that EA can deliver - like NASA probably is, which is why their SAA is unfunded. Anyone can make announcements (see Interorbital).

Be as skeptical as you like.. I encourage it. Just don't go calling people liars without proof. Interorbital is a great example. All you need to do is go find any of the dozen times they've said they were going to do X by Y date and they didn't. EA isn't doing that, they're kindly telling us what they've been up to the last 7 years and what they hope to do in the future with their current funding and as they get more funding. They're showing us the real hardware they have, even putting it on public display, and telling us the contractors and partners that they're working with.

[daveklingler]

I don't see anything that Excalibur Almaz has announced that is not true.

How would you know?

The issue is the level of work that is being performed. My impression is that there some design work being done in an office in Houston, as opposed to manufacture of newly designed subassemblies or critical design review of the entire system.

Art Dula has a law office in Houston.  Aldrin goes to Houston sometimes.  EA is on Isle of Man.  Other work is done by ULA, Paragon, Astrium, EADS, the various Russian and Ukrainian companies...what's being done in Houston?

At the current level of work being done, flight of a capsule is many years away, as far as I can tell.

Again, how would you know?

If there were a major infusion of investor cash, things would change.

Not to be too rude, but how would you know that either?  How do you know the current company finances?  How do you know how much money Art Dula made selling Protons, or what he did with the money?

Of all the Commercial Crew providers, I can't think of one except for Excalibur Almaz that doesn't have some sort of integration facility, but I am unaware of EA having such a facility. Of course, the Reutov plant could be considered their facility, but I don't think it is.

I would think they'd have to finalize a launch provider before they build or rent a facility, and they can just rent if they stay with Russian services.  But regardless, I believe that you and several other people on this forum have made some pretty rude statements based on precious little knowledge, and it would have been better for the thread had you just admitted that a while back.

Now, to get back to discussing the fact that EA has made a very cool announcement about the two 90-cubic-foot space stations they own and what they plan to do with them, I've been trying to figure out whether the passenger module they showed is the top half of an ATV.  And that's a topic ripe for speculation. 

They definitely have a few billion dollars worth of assets, if they can do a demo launch.  About eight years ago Dula told me he was putting together a company to use the Almaz assets, and I didn't really take it seriously.  Old Russian space hardware?  That wasn't exciting!  But old Russian space hardware has been doing a nice job of holding up the American and Russian space programs these many years, and I have to admit that if I had a chance to buy two 90-cubic-meter spacecraft I'd jump on it.  Parking a modernized Almaz out at EML2 is even cheaper and faster than the Boeing/Hatfield cheap exploration gateway. 

So I'm now enthused.

[daveklingler]

I don't see anything that Excalibur Almaz has announced that is not true. The issue is the level of work that is being performed.

Is this your attempt at an apology? You said you didn't believe their announcement.. you said you hadn't seen any evidence that what they were saying was true. Now you're backpedaling. Did I get through to you?

You pulled the exact same routine on the SpaceX threads..

I don't see how Quantum can be so sure that they're steadily progressing toward a near-term capability. In lieu of proof (not just vague announcements) of their concrete plans and funding, I think it's logical to be somewhat skeptical that EA can deliver - like NASA probably is, which is why their SAA is unfunded. Anyone can make announcements (see Interorbital).

You should probably do a little bit of research on EA and Art Dula.  Then go and watch the NSS video, because it wasn't all that vague.  EA didn't seriously think they were going to be competitive for CCDev and they didn't see ISS deliveries as part of their business plan, but they took the opportunity to use the unfunded SAA to beat their assets into meeting NASA requirements.  That's what's known as a smart business decision, and I would like to think I would have done the same thing.  Unfunded SAAs are very valuable because they still entitle a company to a lot of NASA personnel time.

[Danderman]

EA didn't seriously think they were going to be competitive for CCDev and they didn't see ISS deliveries as part of their business plan, but they took the opportunity to use the unfunded SAA to beat their assets into meeting NASA requirements.  That's what's known as a smart business decision

Why was that a smart business decision? I am not saying it wasn't a smart business decision, I am just asking what the benefits to EA were.

[Danderman]

This is what the EA web site says about their current work:

Design definition work is in progress on the RRV capsule and its service module. Critical path items such as the emergency escape motor, retro rocket, pyrotechnic and parachute systems have already been re-issued. Analytical models have been prepared for structural analysis, thermal analysis and assessment of the spacecraft with multiple launch vehicles. The development, processing and integration plans have also been developed for the Excalibur Almaz’s RRVs.

There is nothing wrong or misleading about the above statement.

However, this is far from production of subassemblies or actual work by Russian/Ukrainian firms on modernization of Almaz-VA components.

[Danderman]

They definitely have a few billion dollars worth of assets, if they can do a demo launch. 

Is that the same as saying that they need a few billion dollars in assets to do a demo launch?

Seriously, there is nothing wrong about being enthused about this company.

[QuantumG]

There is nothing wrong or misleading about the above statement.

However, this is far from production of subassemblies or actual work by Russian/Ukrainian firms on modernization of Almaz-VA components.

Seriously, there is nothing wrong about being enthused about this company.

We're still waiting for you to tell us something we don't know.

[Danderman]

Excalibur Almaz is awesome! ©