Excalibur Almaz announces lunar plans

[sdsds]

I wonder what condition everything is in after all these years.

I wonder what procedures and equipment could be used to determine that.

[QuantumG]

Here's the video:

http://www.nss.org/resources/library/videos/ISDC12dula.html

Seems they plan to launch the stations on Proton and the reusable reentry vehicles on Soyuz.. unless they can get better offers.

[Moe Grills]

Here's the video:

http://www.nss.org/resources/library/videos/ISDC12dula.html

Seems they plan to launch the stations on Proton and the reusable reentry vehicles on Soyuz.. unless they can get better offers.

The question then becomes: How do the Excalibur Almaz executive board
plan to raise money to purchase the Proton & Soyuz launchers?
I don't see much evidence that they have strawed away sufficient
millions to carry forward with the purchases, tests, integrations and launches they expect to achieve within the next 2-3 years.

[watermod]

Almaz was 1971-1974... 
I give %0001 chance that any part of the wiring harness will have insulation after a slight bump.... unless it's some tar based or paper/twine wrapped stuff.   
Any rubber hoses - good luck
Any plastic - well past the sell-by date let alone the use-by.
Different metals - corrosion
It might be cheaper to have a new one built using 3D scans of the existing parts and milling machines.
Does the glass they used show measurable flow after that long a time?
 

[Downix]

Almaz was 1971-1974... 
I give %0001 chance that any part of the wiring harness will have insulation after a slight bump.... unless it's some tar based or paper/twine wrapped stuff.   
Any rubber hoses - good luck
Any plastic - well past the sell-by date let alone the use-by.
Different metals - corrosion
It might be cheaper to have a new one built using 3D scans of the existing parts and milling machines.
Does the glass they used show measurable flow after that long a time?
 

So I understand, the electrical systems would be/have been replaced.  The main structural elements however seemed intact.

[QuantumG]

The question then becomes: How do the Excalibur Almaz executive board
plan to raise money to purchase the Proton & Soyuz launchers?
I don't see much evidence that they have strawed away sufficient
millions to carry forward with the purchases, tests, integrations and launches they expect to achieve within the next 2-3 years.

The better question: have they found any customers yet? Futron studies are great and all, but checks that have cleared are even better.

[pargoo]

     Aren't we all in agreement that this thing has as much likelihood of happening as one of us being aboard the first crewed Dragon flight to the ISS?  Seriously...

[Lars_J]

Indeed. Every announcement they make sound further and further removed from reality.

[QuantumG]

     Aren't we all in agreement that this thing has as much likelihood of happening as one of us being aboard the first crewed Dragon flight to the ISS?  Seriously...

What, in particular, do you think is the biggest hurdle to this actually happening?

Remember, "the giggle factor" is a constant when it comes to space activities.. people scoff right up until launch day. Afterwards, everyone says nothing of importance happened. Example: Bigelow launching their Genesis I module on Depnr.

I'm not sure what's so hard to grasp about EA's plans here.. they have refurbished heritage spacecraft with a prime contractor that has their own launch providers, plus their team has a history of selling launches themselves. The only piece of the puzzle I'm waiting to see is an actual paying customer.. all it takes is money.

http://aerosociety.com/Events/Event-List/275/3rd-European-Space-Tourism-Conference-Open-for-Business

Maybe that's what they're going to announce next.

[Danderman]

Almaz was 1971-1974... 
I give %0001 chance that any part of the wiring harness will have insulation after a slight bump.... unless it's some tar based or paper/twine wrapped stuff.   
Any rubber hoses - good luck
Any plastic - well past the sell-by date let alone the use-by.
Different metals - corrosion
It might be cheaper to have a new one built using 3D scans of the existing parts and milling machines.
Does the glass they used show measurable flow after that long a time?
 

As a trivia note, much Almaz/VA/TKS hardware was built after the current ISS Service Module was ordered during the Brezhnev regime.

[Danderman]

I'm not sure what's so hard to grasp about EA's plans here.. they have refurbished heritage spacecraft with a prime contractor that has their own launch providers, plus their team has a history of selling launches themselves. The only piece of the puzzle I'm waiting to see is an actual paying customer.. all it takes is money.

One issue is that the heritage hardware has some technical limitations that require major modifications before the hardware could be flown with tourists - even if the hardware were brand new.

For example, the capsule does not have the ability to maneuver in space; the solid rocket de-orbit motor doesn't work above 300 kilometers; the capsule itself is not designed for free flight for more than a couple of hours or so. Etc.

I am not suggesting that these modifications are impossible, or even difficult. However, I see no evidence that actual work on these modifications is in progress.

[QuantumG]

I am not suggesting that these modifications are impossible, or even difficult. However, I see no evidence that actual work on these modifications is in progress.

He claims they are in the video.. not sure what more you want than that.

If there is someone you know attending the RAS event today, perhaps you can get them to ask.

[pargoo]

     The biggest obstacle to this happening is the oldest, most-obvious one - lack of money, of course.  Where are they going to find the cash to buy a Proton launch for the Almaz, plus a Soyuz(or Proton) launch for the crew, PLUS a launch to loft whatever upper stage is required to boost all that mass around the moon on a mission that will produce little, if any scientific return?  And all this with just two airframes and four reentry vehicles WAY past their use-by date, one of which by today's safety standards - even in Russia(!) - would need to be test-flown to the moon just to prove that it would even work satisfactorily once in space without blowing up or dying without ever being heard from again?
     If it walks like a boondoggle, quacks like a boondoggle and looks like a boondoggle, it's a boondoggle.

[QuantumG]

Thanks Capt'n Obvious. Yes, you need money to do anything. As for the safety of the vehicles, you're demonstrating that you haven't even watched the video.. go do so, come back when you have something constructive to say.

[Danderman]

I am not suggesting that these modifications are impossible, or even difficult. However, I see no evidence that actual work on these modifications is in progress.

He claims they are in the video.. not sure what more you want than that.

If there is someone you know attending the RAS event today, perhaps you can get them to ask.

I would be thrilled to learn of any evidence that Excalibur Almaz was actively developing modifications to the old Russian systems, but I am not excited about a random comment in a public presentation.

I should say that I have quite a bit of information about these systems, and I have spent some time at NPO Mash, so when I say that I have no evidence of modifications being developed, its not from lack of looking.

[QuantumG]

I would be thrilled to learn of any evidence that Excalibur Almaz was actively developing modifications to the old Russian systems, but I am not excited about a random comment in a public presentation.

I should say that I have quite a bit of information about these systems, and I have spent some time at NPO Mash, so when I say that I have no evidence of modifications being developed, its not from lack of looking.

Umm.. I'll ask again, because I get the feeling you're not understanding the question: what evidence do you want?

They say they've been paying a number of different groups to do work on these vehicles.. do they need to send you copies of their books?

I think this is once again a case of you calling people liars who aren't around to defend themselves. You really need to stop. This forum does not exist for you to slander people.

[Danderman]

I would be thrilled to learn of any evidence that Excalibur Almaz was actively developing modifications to the old Russian systems, but I am not excited about a random comment in a public presentation.

I should say that I have quite a bit of information about these systems, and I have spent some time at NPO Mash, so when I say that I have no evidence of modifications being developed, its not from lack of looking.

Umm.. I'll ask again, because I get the feeling you're not understanding the question: what evidence do you want?

They say they've been paying a number of different groups to do work on these vehicles.. do they need to send you copies of their books?

I think this is once again a case of you calling people liars who aren't around to defend themselves. You really need to stop. This forum does not exist for you to slander people.

Let's try it this way:

Do we know of any of their vendors actually working on on modernization of their hardware? Usually Russian companies show development projects on their web sites, since customers are so hard to find.

Does Excalibur Almaz have DTRA registration for technical work with foreign firms?

Does Excalibur Almaz have the financial resources for significant technical development? I know the answer to this question, do you?

[Downix]

I would be thrilled to learn of any evidence that Excalibur Almaz was actively developing modifications to the old Russian systems, but I am not excited about a random comment in a public presentation.

I should say that I have quite a bit of information about these systems, and I have spent some time at NPO Mash, so when I say that I have no evidence of modifications being developed, its not from lack of looking.

Umm.. I'll ask again, because I get the feeling you're not understanding the question: what evidence do you want?

They say they've been paying a number of different groups to do work on these vehicles.. do they need to send you copies of their books?

I think this is once again a case of you calling people liars who aren't around to defend themselves. You really need to stop. This forum does not exist for you to slander people.

Let's try it this way:

Do we know of any of their vendors actually working on on modernization of their hardware? Usually Russian companies show development projects on their web sites, since customers are so hard to find.

Does Excalibur Almaz have DTRA registration for technical work with foreign firms?

Does Excalibur Almaz have the financial resources for significant technical development? I know the answer to this question, do you?

Well, I don't know, but they delivered everything requested for their CCDev2 unfunded SAA, with the last item delivered last week.

[Danderman]

Well, I don't know, but they delivered everything requested for their CCDev2 unfunded SAA, with the last item delivered last week.

This is probably true. I have attached all of the milestones here as a public service.

It looks as if the deliverables are mostly stuff that EA would require to fly their capsule and have had on hand for some time; reports on hardware are probably the original NPO Mash documents from 30 years ago, such as pressure testing results.

There is some work described in the requirements, but nothing too difficult for a small company that has access to archives from NPO Mash. The launch vehicle reports and finite element model would have been on hand for quite some time.

There is certainly no work performed that implies any significant modernization efforts of the existing subsystems.

I would look forward to anyone taking a look at these deliverables and telling me where I am wrong.

[QuantumG]

Let's try it this way:

Do we know of any of their vendors actually working on on modernization of their hardware? Usually Russian companies show development projects on their web sites, since customers are so hard to find.

WTF? Contractors don't talk about the work they're doing unless they have permission.

Does Excalibur Almaz have DTRA registration for technical work with foreign firms?

Yes, that was also in the video.

Does Excalibur Almaz have the financial resources for significant technical development? I know the answer to this question, do you?

Also in the video.

He says they are doing this work and you say they are not. Their press release is official and your skepticism is uncivil.

You have to take what they say as given, unless you can prove otherwise. Can you prove otherwise? Until you do, retract your comments and apologize.